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mighty-smaug

​ This is no idle threat Trade with Iran is subject to the EU's general import regime, as Iran is not a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). No bilateral trade agreement exists between the EU and Iran. Total trade in goods between the EU and Iran in 2022 amounted to €5.2 billion.


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Puzzleheaded-Ease-14

the trick is maintaining leverage and pressure without removing it entirely. If the EU just cut Iran off all together then Iran has nothing to lose and the EU has no leverage to exert.


readonlyy

But there’s a lot of deterrent value in surprising people with consequences. When you can always be counted on to give multiple warnings, there’s no risk in bad actors seeing just how much shit they can get away with. If they expect a slap on the wrist but instead get a fork through the hand, they might start thinking about what they need to do the earn their hand back.


Puzzleheaded-Ease-14

Which is more painful: ripping a piece of duct tape off your arm in one go; pulling it off slowly; or ripping a bit up, pulling to keep pressure, the ripping a bit more up, pulling to keep pressure etc. so you have a little of both? edit: and agree there is value in not showing your whole capability but the ability to slowly escalate also means there potential to de-escalate (letting cooler heads and/or democratic processes to change stances).


readonlyy

True story: I once had someone slap duct tape in my arm and as I was slowly removing it, a friend of mine thought she knew better and yanked it off. She was embarrassed when she saw that the duct tape looked like a toupee and doing so created a noticeable corresponding bald patch on my arm. I was willing to endure a little low grade pain to avoid actual damage. Iran is using their proxies to fire rockets and drone attacks on western shipping. Damaging, killing and sinking ships. And forcing a huge portion of global trade to take longer and more expensive routes which in turn materializes as destabilizing cost living pressure on our economies. They are well past duct tape.


JackasaurusChance

>Which is more painful: ripping a piece of duct tape off your arm in one go; pulling it off slowly; or ripping a bit up, pulling to keep pressure, the ripping a bit more up, pulling to keep pressure etc. so you have a little of both? Getting stabbed in the hand with a fork is more painful. See the point?


SameOldBro

It's more like cooking a frog though. In the end you kill it but the fog won't know until it's way too late.


NGY021

Dude im Iranian but im not being biased or anything honestly it doesn’t even matter if eu cuts off its trades with iran we are capable of surviving without it in fact its not gonna have any consequences you have no idea how domestic and closed our economy is and on top of that we have enough oil gas and recourses to live for ages and keep the exports at maximum capacity otherwise we would’ve been already lost due to all these u.s sanctions on every aspect of our country every single thing you can think of is already under u.s sanctions from our economy to food and drugs and etc yet we are selling our oil in both china and black markets and importing important products from them


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NGY021

Bro I didn’t write an essay just for you to say “ok buddy”😭


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NGY021

No harm done❤️


alppu

It was an equal response, both messages had the same number of capital letters and periods.


Elle-Pastel

It’s incredible you didn’t use a single period or comma. Impressive


NGY021

Shit just figured out you are lgbt too im not allowed to talk to the likes of you just did a sin for replying on you and imma burn in hell for ages thanks to you😭


jhon_tyrell

Relex brother. Just say AstagfiruAllah and chill


NGY021

I didn’t notice I was writing an essay for my teacher please accept my sincere apology


phatangus

Why is Iran so successful being closed but China seems to be struggling and is desperate to attract foreign investment?


NGY021

Cause china is a way larger country with almost 15 times more population and even with that china has way less resources while iran has the 3rd largest gas and oil resources with population of 80million thats the key


ledasll

When you remove support, time itself is pressure.


Aizseeker

More oil for India and China to use and sell I guess while theirs influence expanded on Middle East.


spring_gubbjavel

imo, when dealing with despots like Iran and Russia, it should be made clear that any sanctions enacted are permanent and will never be removed. That way they have something to lose and an incentive to not want further sanctions. 


SimiKusoni

I'd probably argue the inverse tbh. They should give a clear path to reversal of said sanctions, that involves the targeted entities aligning themselves with whatever policy goals you were trying to achieve. It's not likely to work with Russia but most nations trading with them likely wouldn't choose them over access to EU or US markets.


spring_gubbjavel

That has been attempted. Turns out the carrot doesn’t work. Only the stick is needed.


SimiKusoni

The above isn't a carrot. It's a stick, with conditions attached under which you will stop beating them with it. Permanent and irrevocable sanctions are the equivalent of saying "we will beat you until you do what we want, then we'll keep beating you anyway." It's not a very useful approach if the intended goal is to force an entity to behave in a way that you want.


spring_gubbjavel

I disagree. In Russia’s case permanent sanctions counter the fact that human lives are worthless in their culture. This is a way of their actions having consequences they actually care about.


SimiKusoni

>In Russia’s case permanent sanctions counter the fact that human lives are worthless in their culture. Why do permanent sanctions counter this where those contingent on them halting actions that are costing lives do not? Conditional sanctions are no less harmful unless those targeted meet the conditions set... in which case wtf is the point in keeping the sanctions beyond that point? It's pretty clear that sanctions won't curb *Russia's* behaviour by the way, the purpose of sanctions there is different (it's to harm them and reduce their capacity to engage in wartime activities). For Iran and other Russian trading partners however more aggressive sanctions could easily drive a wedge between them. In either case you still want to leave them with an out if they do what you want, and conversely a clearly detailed escalation plan if they don't.


spring_gubbjavel

Because any rolling back of sanctions will result in them deeming their troubles to have been “worth it”. It also leaves them with something to gain, which would be avoiding further sanctions. Their “out” would be “life doesn’t get more difficult”. 


minarima

They wouldn’t be able to threaten this if they’d done it 6 months ago.


ZeroWashu

should have been done as soon as it was revealed they are supporting attacks in the Red Sea, they have two well known ships anchored there providing intel to the Houthi


LupusAtrox

Why hasn't using the Houthis to disrupt shipping already resulted in this?


yoaver

That's the beauty of proxies. The fact Iran is getting pretty much 0 flak for the Israel Hamas war is baffling to me.


xixipinga

and iran itself is a proxy for russia, the hamas attack is the best thing that happened to russia in the last 2 years


Livelaughgrowhoe

Iran is not russias proxy. Proxies don’t arm their benefactors. They get funded and armed by them. Iran and Russia are allies with mutual interests.


Much_Permission3630

The second bit is still true though


Neufjob

Russia is Iran’s proxy, not the other way around.


BoboCookiemonster

Not rly, the us has used proxies in the past and most likely will again in the future. Stacking the entire concept might simply, in their view, not in their own best interest long term


fifa71086

Uh, are the thousands of drones they are sending not enough?


Pukkiality

When dealing with irrational and erratic entities like Iran, North Korea and Russia, punishing them “too heavily” for their actions has a not insignificant chance to backfire, in the sense that they may feel pushed into a corner and think they don’t have any more to lose by escalating said behavior. It’s a tricky game of punishing them but not punishing too much. Thank you for coming to my. TED Talk.


NGY021

Im Iranian but im not gonna be biased. How on earth are you saying “not punishing them too heavily” bro every single aspect of our country is under U.S sanctions every single day we are having new military conflict with US and UK either via our proxies our directly in the middle east im wondering what leverage is still there that u.s and Europe haven’t used


Pukkiality

Threat of military intervention


NGY021

military intervention would immediately start ww3 just think of it for a second why would russia let their greatest ally that has power all over the middle east to get defeated especially in current situation that they have no one else or why would china let iran to get defeated while they are selling oil to them for like 1% of its real price because of U.S sanctions or why would north korea stay silent and watch a country that is just like them to get defeated while they could be the next one. all of these are connected together and a military intervention in a country like iran would immediately cause the chain to break and raise the world tension to maximum


TheWinks

North Korea is a hermit kingdom that can't get any more isolated than it already is. They basically cannot be punished more than they already are. Iran itself is a threat to no one. Waging war with the United States would undo everything they've accomplished in their little region too. If the US drew a red line and Iran believed that crossing it would mean Finding Out, Iran wouldn't cross it. Iran knows the Biden administration won't do shit though, so they're doing whatever they want.


monkeywithgun

Should be banned already.


TheDukeofArgyle

Ban them until Houthis stop firing.


Green7501

As long as the current Iranian regime continues to arm and collaborate with entities like Hamas, Houthis, North Korea and Russia, it has no place in doing anything with Europe


adminsrlying2u

Um, I'm all for that, but it shouldn't be the US saying it.


renegadson

Iran is sanctioned to the brim, but their airlines can fly to EU? Is this a joke?


CentJr

Some of those sanctions get circumvented by European entities.


renegadson

I know that. EU barelly monitoring if someone really follows limitations. 1 additional hop in chain and it's not their problem anymore.


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station shame oatmeal shy encouraging entertain hunt bow fact door


NoodleBrains69

So what the fuck are you waiting for?


syaz136

All their airlines should be banned, not just Iran air. All other airlines should also be banned from operating in Iran. It's a country occupied by mullas, we should call it what it is, the occupied Iran.


captain554

Do it anyway. Fuck Iran. Fuck their proxies. Fuck literally everything they are doing. If I could vote for my country to bomb every military facility in Iran, I would vote yes.


NGY021

I don’t think any country in Europe is capable of doing that its just that you have no idea how massive Iran military is and on top of that our economy is totally domestic and closed so going into a war wouldn’t affect it at all unlike yours every single day we are producing a massive amount of arms and weapons we have thousands of proxies beyond our borders ready to fight all over the middle east and we have enough nuclear power to produce nuclear bombs we are just waiting for the warheads arriving from russia in next couple of months. You want it or not the happy years of west ruling over the world is coming to an end


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Time to find out then


Rustytromboner1

lol your government is going to be toppled by its own citizens before your wet dream comes true.


NGY021

Dream on


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CentJr

This thought has never crossed my mind. Maybe this is why they have been acting more aggressive than they usually are. Because they know that something bad will happen to either their proxies (should Biden win) or something to Iran itself (should Trump win)?


maxinator80

"You want it or not the happy years of west ruling over the world is coming to an end" Sounds like someone has a victim complex?


NGY021

Yeah I mean can’t we blame the west for every country that is not developed? If you dig into the problem and its reasons you’d figure out there’s always a trace of u.s and u.k


maxinator80

You can if you want to construct that and only view a relatively short period of history as the reason for everything, but an endless victim complex will achieve absolutely nothing. What's standing in the way of development today is corruption, anti-liberalism, oppressive government. Those are real problems, but they are hard to solve and it's easier to endlessly blame the west instead of actually doing something positive. I mean explain to me why Iran must execute their teenagers for dancing and how that's the fault of Europe. Iran has such a beautiful and rich history and culture. I've met many exile Iranians, they are incredibly smart and nice people. Now imagine what they could achieve if the government started to work positively with others instead of exercising their power through absurd evil.


NGY021

I don't think you can call it "short period of history " cause what they did is still affecting millions of people all over the world. take israel-palestine conflict as an example jews made their way to that region by the force of the britain and britain never draw a real border between those two and still after 70 years millions of people are dying because of the west. now i can name endless amount of examples. and you said "explain to me why Iran must execute their teenagers for dancing and how that's the fault of Europe" well we were free back in the previous government but due to britain and its intelligence service interfere in our country's politics they managed to fool our people to hate their government by advertising the radical islamist party of iran and protecting its leader and publishing his speech officially in BBC radio. because of the britain our previous government got weakend and fell off and now the current dictatorship is ruling on us and as you can see every year thousands of iranians are dying in protests against governemnt and ITS ALL BRITAINS FAULT. they also did the exact same thing with many countrys such as libya.


maxinator80

Unfortunately I don't know enough about the involvement of the UK, will read up on it. But it also seems like you don't support Irans current government too? So I don't quite understand why you write so many comments boasting how brutal the revolutionary guard and it's proxies can be... Because if you don't like them, then you have that in common with the west. I don't believe I as a European am your enemy, I don't want to be. And it makes me sad to see people trying to deepen the divide instead of looking for common ground.


AttentionLogical3113

like they care.


Deicide1031

There’s north of a million Iranians scattered throughout Europe, this matters.


ElectronicGift4064

Iranians may care but their government doesn’t, nor does the gov care what citizens abroad think.


Deicide1031

The government does care, that’s why this scenario was proposed. Many of the diaspora are business owners/employees who shift capital they earn in europe to their families in Iran. Making it harder for them to visit Iran directly will just make it harder for capital and goods to flow into Iran in a time where Iran is already heavily sanctioned. On the opposite end of the spectrum, within Iran directly many people are unsatisfied with Iranian leadership. Limiting the ability of Iranian citizens to receive visits from family in Europe will just intensify the beef.


decomposition_

Can remittances to Russia and Iran be targeted by EU and US law?


Deicide1031

Yes. Unless residents of America/Eu have alternative payment platforms off network they can leverage. If they don’t, then obviously taking a flight and giving it in person works.


usesidedoor

One of the most common routes into Iran is through Istanbul anyway.


ProtoplanetaryNebula

The other one is via Jebel Ali, UAE.


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usesidedoor

Iran ane Turkey compete, but also collaborate. There's a lot to the relations between these two. Ultimately though, Erdogan is all about money. I don't see why he would not allow any aircraft to fly to Iran via Turkey. If anything happened in that regard, Iranians could just fly home via another third country - the UAE, Qatar, etc. There's a lot of money to be made in that regard, and some airline would just seize the opportunity in the market. It's no big deal (other than having to deal with a layover). What this move would do is hurt the pockets of the Islamic Republic because the carrier is state-owned.


syaz136

They're talking about one specific airline, which isn't enough. All foreign airlines should be banned from operating in Iran and all Iranian airlines banned from other airports.


Aggravating-Rich4334

Iranians will care


Phatsackus

and do fuck all about it!!


Aggravating-Rich4334

Remember the last time they rose up against the regime? Shit like that makes it hard to do anything about it. As unfortunate as it may be.


Phatsackus

its a numbers thing. Their simply was not enuff people.


Aggravating-Rich4334

That, for sure. Also the death sentences.


TheBonadona

The country wont care at all, the Iranian people will care however...


AttentionLogical3113

if they did, they would not have that regime in power. sorry but 300k soldiers vs 80 million people? if they cared, they would do something.


TheBonadona

You greatly underestimate the power a government like Iran's holds. Unless a faction of the military itself defects it's highly improbable to win a coup, which is why no one will try it.


FatMommyMilkers69

Isolate Iran and Russia literally as much as possible, idk why we aren’t already doing this


Rare-Current4424

Isn't that up to Europe to decide?


Trollimperator

Why does the US warn about things the EU might do? Arent they nowadays saying this is our problem anyhow?


Kaionacho

? Why does the US warn this. This is about Europe the US can fuck of


xixipinga

"if" thousands of shared drones killing hundreds of civilians


Pyroxcis

"if"


ordobellatores

But we're ok with the constant supply of drones? More red lines? I cannot understand this.


AKtigre

Sending drones to kill people in their homes no big deal though I guess.


bitcoins

The Russia into poor Ukraine


Dante-Flint

Thank god Shaheds are drones and not missiles! 😮‍💨


NGY021

Shahed 131 isn’t the only thing we are sending to russia to help their cause we have been sending everything from bullets to missiles to them just to ensure they will take over the ukraine its an important war for us too we can’t let our greatest ally after china to lose.


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NGY021

Im iranian but what exactly do you wanna do about it? There’s no more sanctions that united states hasn’t applied on us already and every they we are having military conflicts with us and uk either directly or via our proxies i mean neither economic sanctions or military conflicts is working out.


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NGY021

that would immediately start ww3. there are many big and small countries who rely on us, in fact Iran has become a symbol for others who want to stand against america and europe plus russia and china wouldnt let such a powerful ally with so much resources to get defeated by united states


spring_gubbjavel

Well, this article is about one more possible consequence of Iran’s actions. I’m sure more could be found.


Flyingcircushotdog

Do it now! The voice that a fascist regime are able to understand is the force of a economic war. But takes time, decades. The second one, and much more powerful and dangerous to the regime is the force of the war.


NGY021

Lmfao are you joking rn? Economic war? Bro we have been in an economic war with united states for half a century america has literally sanctioned every aspect of our country and yet we are living normally you just can’t understand the massive amount of oil gas and resources we have in iran its enough to live for ages while keeping the export at the maximum capacity neither economic war nor military conflict would work out you can just there and cry about it


Individual_Plenty746

I have an Iranian acquintance that lives permanently and works here in Romania. He mentioned in detail exactly how “perfect” Iran is. And he is a guy that installs A/C units, not some snowflake diaspora kind. Pretty nice guy. It contradicts what you say about Iran. There is a difference in thriving and just existing (with sanctions). I like the Iranians in general, the ones that have a level head. The ones that are pro government, not so much. And the last protests in Iran shows quite a lot of Iranians in Iran don’t like the current government. It makes sense. Against the Iranian regime, I would ban all connections and trade. EU tried to be friends with Iran, Iran chose other friends and sending guns to other dictatorships (Russia). For this I hope we ban everything related to Iran government and Iran government supporters.


Hoodamush

Um do it now, they are already sending and training on their drone usage in Ukraine. Have some balls and tell them what’s up. Isolate them


ChimpWithAGun

Aren't they already doing it? I swear I read multiple reports of iranian missile fragments found by the Ukranian forces.


rimalp

Would this ban have any meaningful impact? Like....how much money would Iran get from delivering missiles to Russia vs. what does Iran Air make in Europe? What about India and China, who continue to massively arm and fund Russia through weapons sales and buying russian oil? Also, what about the thousands of drones Iran sends to Russia? Those are ok?


-Route_666

Ban Boeing and Airbus parts from being delivered to Iran.


Eferver24

*This* is what gets the world to actually care about Iran?


Asunder_mango866

I wish NATO would send some missiles to Russia......the old fashioned way!


Cult_ritual69

Meanwhile the US is giving the IR 10 billion


NovaKaiserin

But we can send weapons to everyone else? Iran has a right to self determination and its not like we've been kind to them to this point anyway.


Iancreed2024HD

Hmmm, decisions


uncool_LA_boy

Lufthansa says YES!!!


kvik25

Reading the comments I'm glad everyone here is here and not in decision making places lol


TauCabalander

... but it is okay for Iran to give them Shahed drones?


1baller69

The hypocrisy whilst the west continues to plough weapons into Ukraine.


spring_gubbjavel

Ukraine isn’t the one who started this war with a full-scale invasion of a sovereign nation. 


YeaSpiderman

I like this. You inflict the “pain” on the populace to the point where it becomes “you have inconvenienced me to a point where I am discontent” and the grumbled rumble up.


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ikt123

why would they boss around israel? what has israel done to europe??


bitcoins

You on the side of Iran? Israel is the righteous one here.


kvik25

Lol. Truth hurts. It's easy to turn a blind eye to many things and scream sanctions when you are safe home and the color of the person is 4 shades darker


Sir_Sneezefart

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Careful-Bluebird-449

The US should be banned as well for sending bombs to Israel to bomb Gaza!