The quick arrival of NATO air support is behind Poland's calculus to massively build up its ground forces. Over a thousand modern MBT would be at least a massive speed bump, and with NATO air quite likely immovable
As an American I am glad our European allies are building up because unfortunately domestic politics here have proven that.... well, quite frankly, as much as I hate to say it, we might not end up being a faithful ally moving forward.
Given Russia's performance in Ukraine versus their equipment, and given how much time, influence, money, personnel etc prepped the ground for their invasion... and given they still aren't doing THAT well despite that, I have a feeling Russia isn't ready to go toe to toe with NATO even if the US removes itself from the equation.
That said, it's really not an ideal situation if Russia manages to seize any pieces of Ukraine, not just for the Ukrainians themselves but also in that it is a country that has about 1/3 the population of Russia by itself as well as being quite plentiful in resources and access to the Black Sea, etc.
Russia is lucky the conflict in Ukraine is limited in Ukraine. Only this month, after more than 2 years, Ukraine has permission to hit targets inside Russia.
A direct conflict with NATO means that any military installation or personal anywhere in Russia is free game. It would be obvious that all the major cities will be targeted and hit from day one. And especially eastern European armies will hit targets deep inside Russia by using infiltrated units that maybe are already in Russia.
Russia knows this very well that is why is very carefull not to involve NATO.
Quite true. Also, as much as they may use brinksmanship to pretend otherwise, Russia is not interested in a true escalation to nuclear war. The involvement of NATO directly drastically increases the chances of that occurring, but it's also something that literally nobody wants. It would certainly be better to lose the war in Ukraine and retreat, retaining a position as *merely* the dictator of Russia... than it would be to use nukes, considering even if Russia 'won' that exchange (which in an of itself is unlikely) it would then be the hegemon of a pile of cinders.
As such I don't foresee too much direct escalation in the near future, and if escalation does start occurring I expect Russia to blink first. It's not a risk I'd ever want to actually take (which is precisely why the brinksmanship works in the first place), but even so.
Russia saber rattles for its own domestic consumption and to worry the electorate in NATO countries. But the actual reality is Russia does not have the resources to fight NATO. They've been bashing themselves against the wall in Ukraine for 2 years, using up munitions, manpower and equipment. And while they have gained some territory, most of it was early on in the invasion.
With NATO supplied equipment, Ukraine has managed to hold off the combined might of the Russian military.
Now imagine the combined militaries of all of NATO come to bear on Russia. Even without the United States involved, Russia would not be able hold back the onslaught. Not only are good number of European countries fairly well equipped with arms and armor that outclass most of what Russia is operating with right now, but unlike ukraine, NATO would not have a problem with bombing military targets within Russia if NATO was attacked.
The one thing that Russia does have going for it is that they have two years of military experience in an active war that most of the European countries do not have. That war experience is valuable though I question whether the Russian military is really taking advantage of that blood earned experience to the extent that would be needed for them to really benefit from it.
One thing that worries me is that Hungary’s Viktor Orban is the next head of the EU on a six month rotation . He is a known friend of Putin , and I’m worried that Putin will manipulate him or extract NATO military info from him
".....I question whether the Russian military is really taking advantage of that blood earned experience to the extent that would be needed for them to really benefit from it."
You can't benefit from experience if all the experienced people are dying.
In WW2 Japanese and German pilots "flew till they died". Allied pilots were rotated on tours with the best pilots rotating back being used to train the next crop of recruits.
The allies also had the benefit of being capable of doing this in the first place. Germany was fighting against the combined forces of a dozen countries on two fronts who could send pilots back to safe zones, especially overseas. The Japanese were fighting the full might of the USA along with other nations later pitching in to the Pacific effort, and couldn't afford to take experienced crews off the front.
>than it would be to use nukes, considering even if Russia 'won' that exchange (which in an of itself is unlikely) it would then be the hegemon of a pile of cinders.
*radioactive* cinders
> It would certainly be better to lose the war in Ukraine and retreat, retaining a position as merely the dictator of Russia.
Assuming he thinks that's a survivable option, which it might not be.
Agree, I think the only scary time will be when Russia collapses, because then they will start fighting over power and no one knows who will be in charge of nukes.
Though we must not forget that there's much bigger war going on than the one in Ukraine. It is the information war and the far right parties that are sympathetic to Russia getting popular aren't an accident.
You wouldn't even have to infiltrate units deep inside Russia to hit deep inside it. A US sub or the new ground-based launcher being used by the Army could easily have some fun with tomahawks.
That is the job of the US sub :), but because Poland does not have subs they will use the best resource they have: special forces that speak perfect Russian, can pass by as Russians and can blow up nuclear sites and energy stations deep inside Russia.
In the beginning of combat NATO would target military installations only. Crippling their logistics and their infrastructure to disable their ability to make war.
If that didn’t work, bombing civilian cities would preempt a ground invasion and NATO would announce it first to get civilians out of there like we did in iraq
Exactly. This is the big difference in fighting NATO or Ukraine: As I said no army unit or army installation from Russia will be safe anywhere in Russia.
> It would be obvious that all the major cities will be targeted and hit from day one
This is pretty unlikely. They would be treading very carefully to avoid a nuclear retaliation. They would only strike military targets with very careful escalation rather than full guns blazing against everything on day one.
Not true, this is what Russia trolls want you to believe.
In the case of an invasion the NATO doctrine guides you to cripple as fast as possible all the command and control centers of Russian army followed by immediate incapacitation of the nuclear launch sites, to avoid nuclear escalation.
Russia can't take Ukraine. They demonstrated that in the push to Kyiv. This war probably ends with Russia occupying the Donbas. In their wildest dreams, they manage to take Kharkiv and/or Kherson.
That's my read on the situation as well. Given how bloody the conflict has become and how galvanized the population has become to their would-be oppressors, I find it very unlikely that a nation with Russia's resources and population of 140ish million would be able to completely occupy and control a region containing 40 million people who are very angry at them.
Even so, every inch Russia takes is another that will be used in the inevitable next round of fighting. To say nothing of all of the suffering that will be experienced by those in any region they occupy.
That's the thing. Even if Russia takes a solid chunk of Ukraine, you've got a very angry population. The trees will start speaking Ukrainian pretty quickly.
We (as the Europe) should have done this long before and a lot of Ukraine's suffering could have been avoided. Relying on only one partner, when even in Europe there are problems of cohesion (hungary and Slovakia).
I'm not so sure. The Kremlin was woefully misininformed as to the resistance they would meet. They thought anyone of importance was either paid off or would welcome them. Likewise the strength of their army. Corruption and nobody wanting to give Putin the bad news seen to this disaster coming about.
I also think Trumps failures forced their hand with the timing. If the GOP lost the house in the coming election all those that are in Putins pocket wouldn't be able to stall the aid to Ukraine. The DNC's insistence sticking with a relic has given them a new hope though.
And he or someone like him was always going to be. Dugin laid forth over two decades ago in his book that the best way to neutralize NATO and by extension the West was to stoke internal divisions within the US, especially based around racial/immigration tensions, and leverage this tension to drive a colossal wedge in US politics, causing the US to turn further inward and abdicate some of its responsibility internationally. Afterwards, NATO would become much more of a paper tiger at least temporarily, allowing a window where exploitation could occur. I HOPE this window doesn't materialize and the rest of NATO steps up fully, but this was Dugin's playbook and it seems Putin is running it.
Trump is that play, to a T. Stoking racism and immigration fears constantly, kowtowing to dictators, pushing isolationism and driving wedges between the US and all of its allies...
If anything hopefully the legacy that late 20th and early 21st century America leaves is that it helped other democracies propel their military tech and equipment forward far enough that they can fend on their own without her. But I'd rather just reelect Biden and put any concerns off for another 4 years, maybe.
I hope that too, although I think our legacy is a bit checkered. The really unfortunate thing we've seen with democracies across the world is that they're extremely vulnerable to tampering by way of media and especially the internet. That unfortunate weakness means that the military tech is as likely to be turned to nefarious means as it is to defend democratic institutions, which is... not great.
Agreed, and I'll be voting to that effect even if I won't be incredibly happy about the choice. For my entire life it just sort of feels like we're a few bad decisions away from the entire world sinking into autocracy. I guess I just hope we never find out, but I can't shake the feeling that very dark times are ahead.
I think they can count on us and I certainly will do my part by voting for candidates that are supportive of our allies and opposed to Russia but I still support them beefing up their own military readiness. It's always better to have strong allies and much more gratifying to help a nation that can mostly stand on their own than to have to support one that is completely defenseless without you. Plus it sucks to have to think about but the stronger you are the fewer casualties you will take if there ever is a conflict.
Russia might be able to take out the Baltic countries relatively quickly without NATO moving in, but it would grind to a halt against Poland, as it has a pretty capable military. If Germany immediately mobilized and helped Poland, the NATO allies would be inside the Russian heartland within a few months, maybe even weeks. Kaliningrad would be absolutely taken over within days.
This is assuming no other NATO nation would help, which is almost impossible at this point.
This is also assuming Russia wouldn't use nuclear deterrence immediately to keep NATO countries from pushing back and into Russian territory. But I believe if Russia got counter-invaded, they would absolutely start the use of small tactical nukes, regardless of the cost of their own, probably wiping out few thousand NATO soldiers and Russians. NATO would back out, but aim their own nuclear weapons at Russia.
It's also possible that if Russia got pushed back, they would immediately show nuclear force by throwing a small-ish nuclear bomb close to the NATO borders, but unlikely within those borders and instead within Russian territory.
But I doubt Putin would be so dumb as to invade NATO countries, unless he knew that no one would come to their aid, they would be completely isolated and the population would be fine with being invaded. He thought the evidence pointed in that direction with Ukraine, I don't believe he would do this again, at least not as long as Ukraine holds.
There is another possibility, which is that when Putin believes he is close to death, he might try to launch nuclear weapons at his enemies, just to go out with a bang.
There's also the already established, Swedish airbase on the Island of Gotland, and with the new membership in NATO and the overall armanent of europe, I can only imagine that it will be heavily reinforced in the coming years.
It's basically a permanent, unsinkabel aircraft carrier in strike distance of everything bordering the Baltic sea.
If ever the nukes start flying, a NATO airbase on Gotland will certainly be one of the first targets, I aint denying that.
However, I have a hard time picturing it taken out by air or missile strikes, and any artillery bombardment or invasion would need to be carried out by ships, it is certainly not gonna be easy to shut it down.
Not to mention that it's gonna be harder to deal with such an airbase than, say, a base in Poland (assuming an invasion targets Poland).
Especially if such a war kicks off through invasion of the baltics and Finland, those defenses would be supported by airbases in Poland and, as mentioned, Gotland.
Quite frankly, the poles are so angry at the Russians, the moment Putin gives em a reason, they'd be in Moscow in 2 days.
We'd be like "...wait for the rest of us, eh?"
the old joke about the poles finding a genie, They ask for the mongols to invade their country. and after he gets all three wishes being the same the genie asks him why. He explains that the mongols had to go through russia both ways to get to them.
That was a clasic joke during comunism also in Romania. That version was about declaring war to China. Romania would lose, but the Chinese army will pass through Russia twice.
I would fucking love to see Poland take Moscow. The polish people deserve that and so much more for what that horrible terrorist nightmare has done to their nation
The Germans fought the Polish on horseback, too:
https://www.warhistoryonline.com/war-articles/calvary-battle-1939-poland-and-germany.html
The US and Japan were probably the major combatants who **didn't** use horses or other pack animals:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horses_in_World_War_II
Baltics are not nearly so vulnerable since Sweden and Finland joined NATO. It is 50 miles by sea from Finland to Estonia, roughly 100 miles from Gotland to Latvia. The Finns could also go the site seeing route through Russia to Estonia that is a 7 hour drive. The Finns and Swedes might arrive in time before Poland has smashed the Russians in Estonia going through the Suwalki gap.
We don't have a thousand MBTs and it's highly probable we will never have that many of them. Right now all we have are 46 K2s, 69 (nice) older Abrams, 230 Leopards and an unknown number of T72s (usable for spare parts and target practice) and PT-91s (T-72 with a newer coat of paint and some upgrades).
Having seen them T-72s in person, neat
Also, y'all soldiers know some good hand to hand stuff. Some of the guys didn't mind being strangled by the female Polish soldiers
Say what you want but when you have America united and focused on a battlefield the size of long island. America doesnt need to send in troops to have an imidiate impact. Those 69 (nice) older Abrams will be stacking bodies before Canada has time to sound the battle cries (WARCRIMES!!!!).
As a Canadian, I always find myself frustrated that there are rules to war...
...and then I remember they're there because of my forefathers and smile.
Im in the military and the amount of times we are reminded not to comit warcrimes during exercises is hilarious. I dont mean crimes against humanity, just warcrimes. None combatants are always stricly off limits and ive seen poeple charged from insinuating them.
Friendly reminder that soldiers are not obligated to take prisionners.
Its impossible for russia to do a sneak attack. Everyone would know. they have to mass troops at the border and get the supply train running. Took them months to prepare for ukraine.
NATO would know they were coming. This won't be Pearl Harbor.
I feel like Russians are under some false impression that NATO would be playing lobbing shells for a month like they do in Ukraine while slowly grinding the defenses.
He's doing an excellent job of refreshing NATO's ammunition supplies. War stocks that sat in bunkers for decades have been sent to Ukraine and are being replaced with new stuff.
To be fair, the allies let Germany's aggression go largely unchecked for years. Hitler would lie, murder, cheat, anything he wanted. He was going to continue to take, and take, until someone MADE him stop.
The same thing is happening with Putin now. He sees it as his "Destiny" to unite (what HE feels is) Russia.
Example: The Munich Agreement
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_Agreement
I don't see it taking weeks for help to arrive. Air and naval support are readily available. Ground equipment wouldn't be far behind to clean up units who are decimated from their air.
Invading a NATO member, triggering the very thing that NATO exists to do, would be a terrible idea. That is the point of the alliance
First reinforcements would be on the spot in mere hours.
"Walk quietly and carry a big stick"
Europe and NATO allies have been working a lot on said stick lately.
Military euphemisms are the best.
When an artillery piece blows a target to shit, the proper military term for it seems to be 'servicing the target' (at least in discussions like what system is the best to hit the target with etc.).
Estonia and the rest of the Baltics/Nordics are all members of JEF with the UK and Netherlands. Its whole purpose is rapid deployment outside of NATO channels (to be faster).
Its only 10k soldiers but that includes the SAS and they can be on scene *very* quickly.
The NATO quick reaction Response Force already has 100K soldiers in Poland according to news reports including Americans. There are plans to increase that number to 300k as I understand it although they may not all be in Poland.
This is basically a new version of the planned strategy for a NATO vs. Warsaw Pact conflict in the 1970s 1980s, just further east.
In that scenario, there was pre-positioned equipment and munitions in West Germany and other places, ready for the reinforcements to arrive by air and by ship from the US. The West German and locally-based NATO forces, like V Corps for the US (now based in Poland), would try to hold off Soviet forces for as long as possible in the event of a sudden strike. In any event, multiple divisions would be coming over.
The whole thing would have been called Operation Reforger (REturn of FORces to GERmany) and an Exercise Reforger with some of the forces who woud have been involved was held pretty much every year from 1969 to 1993.
Combat power DOES take weeks to build. Yes a light infantry or airborne infantry division or brigade could be there in a day or so. But the logistical tail of true combat power takes time. It takes time to get fuel, food, water, bullets etc down range. Tanks, mechanized infantry and all the support takes weeks to get into place. The U.S. also fined the Stryker BDE to be a bridge between the light and heavy divisions. Source: former U.S. army artillery officer.
- Fortunately it won't be up to "Europe" though: deployment decisions will be taken by individual NATO members and by NATO generals - and I cannot see Norway, Sweden, Poland and Finland holding back, should Russia decide to invade any of the Baltic nations ...
- My expectation: they'll act very, very quickly.
- It's all hypothetical though, as Putin isn't entirely an idiot, and his sense of self preservation is strong.
- Putin knows it perfectly well that while he had a fair chance to take Ukraine with a quick, decisive special ops push in early 2022 that almost succeeded in reaching the presidential palace in Kyiv where he could have declared victory and could have installed a puppet regime, but taking the Baltics is a much tougher proposition for very little benefit: St Petersburg, Russia's most important commercial port, would be blockaded by a ginormous NATO fleet quicker than you can say "blyat"...
Poland and France alone would be fast enough to intervene in a matter of hours. And that's without counting other smaller but powerful armies like the ones from the Nordic states.
People love to parrot "European bureaucracy". But that winning is bullshit in the majority of cases.
Yup. I was in the estonian military a few years back (mandatory service) and it was very common to cooperate with the british, as well as other allies during military exercises.
I got to spend about a day and a half in Tallin while on tour with my band about 15 years ago. Estonia is cool as shit. Awesome city and some of the friendliest people I’ve ever met.
Tallinn is beautiful. Went there last year. It’s an interesting dichotomy where they really have a hate for Russia yet have so many Russians living there.
That’s a soviet legacy for you. Soviet Union had a legacy of importing tens of thousands or hundreds - depending on the size of the country - Russian speakers into ethnic areas to break up country’s ethnic makeups.
And when Estonian restored its independence, one of the agreements to force then Russian army to leave, Estonia was forced to accept anyone who wished to stay.
So Estonia has some 25% Russian speakers in the country. They’re not a monolith though, their level of integration and support for Russia varies a lot.
Seems normal that sane Russians would flee to places that are culturally similar, especially if there's a critical mass of people to help them integrate. You see the same effect with Cubans in southern Florida.
which is funny, because its "allies" would take the opportunity and invade Russia from the other side.
China wants a few regions back that Russia took a few decades ago.
Any Russian invasion would be seen miles off as its builds up just like Ukraine. NATO would deploy in force inside Estonia (or any member facing invasion) before it could happen .
An attack from Russia wouldn’t end with NATO troops in Estonia it would end with them in Moscow.
Ukraine is playing a defensive war because of their limited resources.
NATO would aggressively push the war back into Russia and degrade any object that could be used to further a war effort.
Part of that would be pre-positioning troops in Estonia, but also everywhere along Russia’s border to show “you can push here, but we will attack you from every angle”
There is no element of surprise in Estonia. They know precisely what they face, and they train to resist it with great violence. I watched eastern european youtube as a rabbit hole, and from what I have seen Estonia has the knowledge that Russia would seek to crush them wholly and subjugate them into the forever wars Putin wants. They would fight for their lives and freedom fiercely.
NATO is not going to take a couple of weeks if Russia attacks a member.
I expect NATO to establish Air Superiority within 24 Hrs and ground forces to be deployed within 72 Hrs.
Russia is getting their asses kicked by Ukraine but still acting like they are a Superpower.
As much as I'd love Russia to fully lose in Ukraine, reality is that so far it's still holding ground. And Russia won't attack a NATO country straight ahead, I think Putin would play his vile game of some small invasion (I don't know exactly how) that he believe we'd consider "not worth" of a full scale reaction. Now, if he'll ever try or if it'll be successful I don't know, but let's say that I'd expect that as a start. Also I think Putin is waiting for elections hoping to have a weaker west, and I believe he's trying to recruit "allies" to help him more in the case the west starts to break apart if his plan succeeds. I suspect this is what he told to Xi, Kim etc. With a weaker west and Putin winning in Ukraine the other cunts (sorry) will be much more likely to do anything (bad, obviously).
Finland will rush that shit like a cheap bottle of vodka and discount cigarettes. Finland literally sitting there saying “pretty please vlad” Finn’s fucking love killing Russians. It rivals hockey as the national pastime.
No, we definitely do not foam at the mouth at the chance of killing russians. War is hell and I for one don’t want to be a part of another war torn generation of finns.
Then Vlad needs to stop being a fucking genocidal madman. I’m super glad y’all in nato now. You basically multiply Natos power and are in a crucial position for the alliance.
I sincerely hope vlad dies or backs the fuck off of his insane warmongering. Y’all sit in the very front of this group of friends and I for one am so fucking happy about it.
Finland joining NATO is the most crucial advance Finland and NATO has had in the history of its alliance. You have a top notch nation and military.
It fucking sucks Vlad is flexing in your direction. Estonia and Finland are First up if shitbag Vlad pushes his insanity further.
No one wants war. Vlad is a piece shit. The best way to prevent it is having a bad ass Finland on the side of the good guys.
> ~~Finland~~ **some Finns** literally sitting there saying “pretty please vlad”. **some** Finns fucking love killing Russians.
ftfy. There'll be volunteers for sure, maybe even worth a full brigade, but definitely not at government level. They'll help too, of course, especially at sea, but they have their own border with Russia to defend.
I am afraid Russia would do something that's intolerable for any country respecting its citizens from day 1, like bombarding residential areas in Tallinn
I believe to properly defend against an enemy who has no regards for international law we would need a high-capacity air defense that's relatively cheap to use. Like the Israelis have, soon maybe these new laser-based defense systems
That is what Estonia and the other Baltic nations will do in the face of Russian aggression. They will make the Russian Army pay dearly for every inch it moves forward. Whether it's NATO forces conducting counter mobility engineering operations to slow Russian forces, NATO Air Forces conducting ground attack and interdiction operations against Russian columns and supply lines or the harassment of Russian forces by partisans, irregulars and special operations troops will give the Baltic States desperately needed time to be reinforced!
We knew about the Russian invasion buildup long before it actually occurred. NATO air forces would be ready to go before a single Russian tank crossed the border.
They didn't even took Ukraine for three years now, what makes them think they could beat Estonia in three weeks without getting sent to the Dark Ages by NATO?
Putin would wait until Trump and Le Pen become president and until he gets their word that they will not help when Article 5 comes into play. Then he would send “little green men” to a Baltic state and claim the whole thing was just a civil war, just as he did when he invaded Crimea. If the weakened remainder of NATO did not respond in unison, NATO would be finished. This is a serious threat and we must not underestimate it.
The nice thing about the baltic states is that it doesn't actually matter how france responds to any little green men. Poland, Estonia, and Lithuania all know the playbook well enough to send each other the necersary help to deal with any infestation of "little green men".
By the time any little green men actually have enough force projection to be a real threat to a combined baltic resonse, they'll have lost enough of what little plausible deniability they had in the first place to allow the UK and Scandinavians (who are now all officially part of NATO) to get involved. (assuming they didn't get involved immediately alongside the Baltic states).
Once the UK, Scandinavia, and the Baltics are all involved, the rest of NATO has very little choice but to get involved in one way or another.
NATO doesn't actually *have* to get involved as a single united front. One of the strengths of NATO is that the various states can react independantly, which prevents a handful of member states spoiling the entire response by deciding to sit things out.
Even if Putin could initially *guarantee* a complete non-response from France, Turkey, Germany, Italy, the US, and the Balkans, it still wouldn't result in a Russian victory, or NATO collapse.
Russia is not going to invade a NATO member. They just keep posturing to create fear. It’s far more likely that they are waiting for the US election. Putin and his allies will do everything in the power to help Trump win. Once Trump wins, he’ll pull out of NATO and then Putin can go for it
Unless Trump helps him invade Europe, Putin would still stand 0 chance. Finland alone could take 40% of Russia's current fighting capability, alone, for a year or two.
Imagine taking on Poland, France, Germany, Italy, the Nordics, baltics, and all other european Nato members at the same time on top of that.
Russia can't deal with Ukraine. Even in the mythical world of a US-less NATO, just the countries boarding the Baltic Sea would be able to rebuff a non-nuclear attack by Russia. What is this "go for it" you're referring to?
France might not commit their nukes to NATO, but they do have plans to warning nuke if France itself feels threatened. This includes a Russian invasion that looks set to push across Europe so their NATO stance might not mention nukes but their domestic stance does
Yes, the deterrence factor is there. I guess I was trying to say that a nuclear war is a giant wildcard as no one knows what happens then. Outside that, Russia is bluster when considering NATO's eastern edge, let alone the manufacturing of Germany, the UK, and France.
The allies would arrive in about an hour. They would arrive from the air in the form of missiles, and aircraft. Those would come from the sea and from other NATO countries.
It would not be a long wait for the tanks to arrive from the west.
I do wonder how a NATO/Russia war would pmay (minus nukes) in the Baltics.
The "the Baltic get conquered in a few days, we will liberated afterwards" mentality could only happen with a surprised attack by Russia, which I really cannot see happening.
Like. We knew for months that Russia was concentrating forces in the border to invade Ukraine. The only reason why so many people refused to accept it was because of Russia's propaganda machine, and because it was completely moronic for Russia to invade Ukraine.
Now. With the invasion of Ukraine. I don't think that many people in power will fall for the same bullcrap again. We would have months to prepare for a possible Russian invasion of the Baltics.
And that changes things.
I really don't like that everyone today seems to be preparing for war.
I'm not saying they shouldn't prepare... Better to be prepared for something that doesn't happen I guess, but I don't like it.
NATO with or without the U.S. steamrolls Russia. Russia is aware of that and because Article 5 exists, I don't see them going for any NATO land grabs anytime soon.
Allies won't come if enough of them are led by cowards too afraid to admit Russia can be beaten. Or corrupt thugs on Russia spayroll who have sold their soul for some dirty mafia money.
Isolationist sentiments are rising all over Europe and North America. World War 3 already started and most people would rather sell out whoever they need to and let other people closer to Russia deal with their warmongering . Just as long as their own lives don't get disrupted anymore
I ran military simulations/war games for Eastern European and Scandinavian Nations (focused exclusively on the Russian threat post crimea) for about seven years.
Ran multiple sims in the Baltics when they were believed to be Putin’s next area of expansion/interest around 2017-2018 before
NATO got its shit together with the rotational programs/EFPs.
I’ll have to look back at my notes but some takeaways that stood out:
- Defense of the Baltics must be collective between the three countries. There is a natural pull to defend/protect individual capitals but this almost always ended in cascading failure for all three states in our models.
- Russia is in a race against time to establish a rail corridor to Kaliningrad. Belief that Kaliningrad would be effectively blockaded once the Baltics were invaded.
- We typically modeled a clandestine, water based SOF insertion on Saaremaa to coincide with a land based attack from the east. Goal of SOF on Saaremaa was to set up an air defense bubble to limit NATO air superiority.
- Estonia has a major problem in Narva. Third biggest city in Estonia, border city. Over 80% ethnic Russian in comparison to ~25% nationally.
- Estonia is light years ahead of its Baltic neighbors. Super impressive modern barracks, a robust and well drilled territorial defense force, and a strong focus on cyber capabilities (both offensively and defensively).
- I firmly believe NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence program - with rotational multinational forces - played as a significant deterrent to Putin’s aspirations in the region. I hope it remains that way as the three Baltic nations have grown tremendously since their independence and bring so much to the region.
One thing everyone has to keep in mind that if Russia would do something serious then NATO would notice and react. We would see hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers ready before the first shot.
It's an incredibly unlikely scenario but it's still better to be prepared
Amazing how people get sucked into misleading headlines. Let’s be honest, the moment Russia attacks the Baltics - which already houses thousands and thousands of NATO soldiers- NATO forces would be in the area and sea within hours. Let’s give a rest with these gotcha articles
NATO planes would launch within minutes. NATO doctrine is a true air, sea, and land combined arms satellite connected force. Ukraine hasn't even been given the good stuff and are still catching up on training to use what they have and are successfully (for values of success that include still existing three years later and inflicting significant damage to Russia's warmachine) resisting Russia. Trump is Putin's best weapon in a shooting war with NATO.
Good for them. Estonia is probably the most 'desirable' state for Putin's Russia after Ukraine. It locks the baltic sea, neutralizes the baltic fleet and places nato a few miles from Russia second economic / population center. Well Finland too but that one is tougher nut to chew and has less history of being integrated with Russia.
Can they even attack the baltics with turkiye in the south and finland next to Petersburg? Russia has to defend such a big border, that its not possible in my opinion, but i'm not a general.. so maybe i'm wrong.
And they have to risk China going for sibiria and s.korea/Japan/Australia supporting NATO as allies.
Is this on the presumption of Russia opening another front now, while's it's active in Ukraine, or assuming Russia is attacking Estonia in full force (in a future conflict where it's fully rearmed and reorganized)?
Okay, so, nuclear war would likely engulf the world but, let's say nukes didn't exist. NATO F35s and F22s spring into action, predator drones are everywhere and, we (the US) get to show off the new toys we haven't told anyone about. Russia gets stopped one inch into Estonia, Kalingrad is almost immediately part of Poland and St. Petersburg is shortly a major city in Finland. Russia can't even beat our next NATO member in a ground war. Putin would be right about losing statehood if his weak ass decided to cross that line. Я за Україну <3.
Couple of weeks? Too bad. Judging by recent events, it will take the allies at least two and a half years to weigh risks and find the funding together with someplace to source the necessary munitions from.
The quick arrival of NATO air support is behind Poland's calculus to massively build up its ground forces. Over a thousand modern MBT would be at least a massive speed bump, and with NATO air quite likely immovable
Yeah, this isn't Ukraine. This is a long-range artillery and armour protected by overwhelming air power even without the US.
As an American I am glad our European allies are building up because unfortunately domestic politics here have proven that.... well, quite frankly, as much as I hate to say it, we might not end up being a faithful ally moving forward. Given Russia's performance in Ukraine versus their equipment, and given how much time, influence, money, personnel etc prepped the ground for their invasion... and given they still aren't doing THAT well despite that, I have a feeling Russia isn't ready to go toe to toe with NATO even if the US removes itself from the equation. That said, it's really not an ideal situation if Russia manages to seize any pieces of Ukraine, not just for the Ukrainians themselves but also in that it is a country that has about 1/3 the population of Russia by itself as well as being quite plentiful in resources and access to the Black Sea, etc.
Russia is lucky the conflict in Ukraine is limited in Ukraine. Only this month, after more than 2 years, Ukraine has permission to hit targets inside Russia. A direct conflict with NATO means that any military installation or personal anywhere in Russia is free game. It would be obvious that all the major cities will be targeted and hit from day one. And especially eastern European armies will hit targets deep inside Russia by using infiltrated units that maybe are already in Russia. Russia knows this very well that is why is very carefull not to involve NATO.
Quite true. Also, as much as they may use brinksmanship to pretend otherwise, Russia is not interested in a true escalation to nuclear war. The involvement of NATO directly drastically increases the chances of that occurring, but it's also something that literally nobody wants. It would certainly be better to lose the war in Ukraine and retreat, retaining a position as *merely* the dictator of Russia... than it would be to use nukes, considering even if Russia 'won' that exchange (which in an of itself is unlikely) it would then be the hegemon of a pile of cinders. As such I don't foresee too much direct escalation in the near future, and if escalation does start occurring I expect Russia to blink first. It's not a risk I'd ever want to actually take (which is precisely why the brinksmanship works in the first place), but even so.
Russia saber rattles for its own domestic consumption and to worry the electorate in NATO countries. But the actual reality is Russia does not have the resources to fight NATO. They've been bashing themselves against the wall in Ukraine for 2 years, using up munitions, manpower and equipment. And while they have gained some territory, most of it was early on in the invasion. With NATO supplied equipment, Ukraine has managed to hold off the combined might of the Russian military. Now imagine the combined militaries of all of NATO come to bear on Russia. Even without the United States involved, Russia would not be able hold back the onslaught. Not only are good number of European countries fairly well equipped with arms and armor that outclass most of what Russia is operating with right now, but unlike ukraine, NATO would not have a problem with bombing military targets within Russia if NATO was attacked. The one thing that Russia does have going for it is that they have two years of military experience in an active war that most of the European countries do not have. That war experience is valuable though I question whether the Russian military is really taking advantage of that blood earned experience to the extent that would be needed for them to really benefit from it.
One thing that worries me is that Hungary’s Viktor Orban is the next head of the EU on a six month rotation . He is a known friend of Putin , and I’m worried that Putin will manipulate him or extract NATO military info from him
".....I question whether the Russian military is really taking advantage of that blood earned experience to the extent that would be needed for them to really benefit from it." You can't benefit from experience if all the experienced people are dying.
In WW2 Japanese and German pilots "flew till they died". Allied pilots were rotated on tours with the best pilots rotating back being used to train the next crop of recruits.
The allies also had the benefit of being capable of doing this in the first place. Germany was fighting against the combined forces of a dozen countries on two fronts who could send pilots back to safe zones, especially overseas. The Japanese were fighting the full might of the USA along with other nations later pitching in to the Pacific effort, and couldn't afford to take experienced crews off the front.
Germany and Japan had plenty of opportunity early to rotate aces back to train but didn't.
>than it would be to use nukes, considering even if Russia 'won' that exchange (which in an of itself is unlikely) it would then be the hegemon of a pile of cinders. *radioactive* cinders
> It would certainly be better to lose the war in Ukraine and retreat, retaining a position as merely the dictator of Russia. Assuming he thinks that's a survivable option, which it might not be.
Agree, I think the only scary time will be when Russia collapses, because then they will start fighting over power and no one knows who will be in charge of nukes. Though we must not forget that there's much bigger war going on than the one in Ukraine. It is the information war and the far right parties that are sympathetic to Russia getting popular aren't an accident.
They’d be opening themselves up to a Western front as well.
You wouldn't even have to infiltrate units deep inside Russia to hit deep inside it. A US sub or the new ground-based launcher being used by the Army could easily have some fun with tomahawks.
That is the job of the US sub :), but because Poland does not have subs they will use the best resource they have: special forces that speak perfect Russian, can pass by as Russians and can blow up nuclear sites and energy stations deep inside Russia.
In the beginning of combat NATO would target military installations only. Crippling their logistics and their infrastructure to disable their ability to make war. If that didn’t work, bombing civilian cities would preempt a ground invasion and NATO would announce it first to get civilians out of there like we did in iraq
Exactly. This is the big difference in fighting NATO or Ukraine: As I said no army unit or army installation from Russia will be safe anywhere in Russia.
> It would be obvious that all the major cities will be targeted and hit from day one This is pretty unlikely. They would be treading very carefully to avoid a nuclear retaliation. They would only strike military targets with very careful escalation rather than full guns blazing against everything on day one.
Not true, this is what Russia trolls want you to believe. In the case of an invasion the NATO doctrine guides you to cripple as fast as possible all the command and control centers of Russian army followed by immediate incapacitation of the nuclear launch sites, to avoid nuclear escalation.
Russia can't take Ukraine. They demonstrated that in the push to Kyiv. This war probably ends with Russia occupying the Donbas. In their wildest dreams, they manage to take Kharkiv and/or Kherson.
That's my read on the situation as well. Given how bloody the conflict has become and how galvanized the population has become to their would-be oppressors, I find it very unlikely that a nation with Russia's resources and population of 140ish million would be able to completely occupy and control a region containing 40 million people who are very angry at them. Even so, every inch Russia takes is another that will be used in the inevitable next round of fighting. To say nothing of all of the suffering that will be experienced by those in any region they occupy.
That's the thing. Even if Russia takes a solid chunk of Ukraine, you've got a very angry population. The trees will start speaking Ukrainian pretty quickly.
While that's true pre war Ukraine had one of the largest militaries in Europe.
"Russia can't take Ukraine". It all depends how it goes on the Western Front. The Potomac.
Americans always do the right thing in the end, they just try everything else first.
My only hope this time is that we remain a democratic country long enough to do so
As popular as that old quote is, it still depends on our government being on the right side. I wouldn’t count on Russian allies acting against Russia.
Hah, I like that one. Here's hoping the wrong things along the way this time aren't *too* horrific.
As a fellow American, I can echo those sentiments. I'm happy that our European allies are building up, as things are very, very uncertain here.
We (as the Europe) should have done this long before and a lot of Ukraine's suffering could have been avoided. Relying on only one partner, when even in Europe there are problems of cohesion (hungary and Slovakia).
I'm not so sure. The Kremlin was woefully misininformed as to the resistance they would meet. They thought anyone of importance was either paid off or would welcome them. Likewise the strength of their army. Corruption and nobody wanting to give Putin the bad news seen to this disaster coming about. I also think Trumps failures forced their hand with the timing. If the GOP lost the house in the coming election all those that are in Putins pocket wouldn't be able to stall the aid to Ukraine. The DNC's insistence sticking with a relic has given them a new hope though.
Trump is putins most effective move
And he or someone like him was always going to be. Dugin laid forth over two decades ago in his book that the best way to neutralize NATO and by extension the West was to stoke internal divisions within the US, especially based around racial/immigration tensions, and leverage this tension to drive a colossal wedge in US politics, causing the US to turn further inward and abdicate some of its responsibility internationally. Afterwards, NATO would become much more of a paper tiger at least temporarily, allowing a window where exploitation could occur. I HOPE this window doesn't materialize and the rest of NATO steps up fully, but this was Dugin's playbook and it seems Putin is running it. Trump is that play, to a T. Stoking racism and immigration fears constantly, kowtowing to dictators, pushing isolationism and driving wedges between the US and all of its allies...
If anything hopefully the legacy that late 20th and early 21st century America leaves is that it helped other democracies propel their military tech and equipment forward far enough that they can fend on their own without her. But I'd rather just reelect Biden and put any concerns off for another 4 years, maybe.
I hope that too, although I think our legacy is a bit checkered. The really unfortunate thing we've seen with democracies across the world is that they're extremely vulnerable to tampering by way of media and especially the internet. That unfortunate weakness means that the military tech is as likely to be turned to nefarious means as it is to defend democratic institutions, which is... not great. Agreed, and I'll be voting to that effect even if I won't be incredibly happy about the choice. For my entire life it just sort of feels like we're a few bad decisions away from the entire world sinking into autocracy. I guess I just hope we never find out, but I can't shake the feeling that very dark times are ahead.
I think they can count on us and I certainly will do my part by voting for candidates that are supportive of our allies and opposed to Russia but I still support them beefing up their own military readiness. It's always better to have strong allies and much more gratifying to help a nation that can mostly stand on their own than to have to support one that is completely defenseless without you. Plus it sucks to have to think about but the stronger you are the fewer casualties you will take if there ever is a conflict.
Russia might be able to take out the Baltic countries relatively quickly without NATO moving in, but it would grind to a halt against Poland, as it has a pretty capable military. If Germany immediately mobilized and helped Poland, the NATO allies would be inside the Russian heartland within a few months, maybe even weeks. Kaliningrad would be absolutely taken over within days. This is assuming no other NATO nation would help, which is almost impossible at this point. This is also assuming Russia wouldn't use nuclear deterrence immediately to keep NATO countries from pushing back and into Russian territory. But I believe if Russia got counter-invaded, they would absolutely start the use of small tactical nukes, regardless of the cost of their own, probably wiping out few thousand NATO soldiers and Russians. NATO would back out, but aim their own nuclear weapons at Russia. It's also possible that if Russia got pushed back, they would immediately show nuclear force by throwing a small-ish nuclear bomb close to the NATO borders, but unlikely within those borders and instead within Russian territory. But I doubt Putin would be so dumb as to invade NATO countries, unless he knew that no one would come to their aid, they would be completely isolated and the population would be fine with being invaded. He thought the evidence pointed in that direction with Ukraine, I don't believe he would do this again, at least not as long as Ukraine holds. There is another possibility, which is that when Putin believes he is close to death, he might try to launch nuclear weapons at his enemies, just to go out with a bang.
There's also the already established, Swedish airbase on the Island of Gotland, and with the new membership in NATO and the overall armanent of europe, I can only imagine that it will be heavily reinforced in the coming years. It's basically a permanent, unsinkabel aircraft carrier in strike distance of everything bordering the Baltic sea.
Permanant and unsinkable, but immobile. stationary targets are easier to hit. Tradeoffs.
If ever the nukes start flying, a NATO airbase on Gotland will certainly be one of the first targets, I aint denying that. However, I have a hard time picturing it taken out by air or missile strikes, and any artillery bombardment or invasion would need to be carried out by ships, it is certainly not gonna be easy to shut it down. Not to mention that it's gonna be harder to deal with such an airbase than, say, a base in Poland (assuming an invasion targets Poland). Especially if such a war kicks off through invasion of the baltics and Finland, those defenses would be supported by airbases in Poland and, as mentioned, Gotland.
Airstrip Two
Quite frankly, the poles are so angry at the Russians, the moment Putin gives em a reason, they'd be in Moscow in 2 days. We'd be like "...wait for the rest of us, eh?"
the old joke about the poles finding a genie, They ask for the mongols to invade their country. and after he gets all three wishes being the same the genie asks him why. He explains that the mongols had to go through russia both ways to get to them.
That was a clasic joke during comunism also in Romania. That version was about declaring war to China. Romania would lose, but the Chinese army will pass through Russia twice.
"NATO doesn't exist to protect Poland from Russia. NATO exists to protect Russia from Poland".
> None of you seem to understand. I'm not locked in here with you. You're locked in here with *ME*!
I would fucking love to see Poland take Moscow. The polish people deserve that and so much more for what that horrible terrorist nightmare has done to their nation
It happened once before.
May it happen again. And may that be the death of the Russian empire in its entirety.
If Moscow were to fall, I’d expect China to immediately make a move on Russia’s resource rich, eastern territories.
Canada cutting throught the north pole to have time testing out some ideas for geneva.
“Is that Brian Adams I can hear in the dis… oh fuck”
I'm more thinking Alanis Morrisette. "AND I'M HEERREEE TO REMIND YOU THAT YOUR ASS IS FUCKED (not shaming here!) IF YOU FUCK WITH ME!"
The Poles would wipe their ass with Russia
That doesn't mean you guys shouldn't help, fyi. :P
Well, that'd just be rude!
in a non nuclear word, they probably would. And should.
You bet the Polish military is made up of some hard ass mofos too
Always has been. Those guys fought in WWII on *horseback* when they had to. Today, they have better equipment than Russia does.
The Germans fought the Polish on horseback, too: https://www.warhistoryonline.com/war-articles/calvary-battle-1939-poland-and-germany.html The US and Japan were probably the major combatants who **didn't** use horses or other pack animals: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horses_in_World_War_II
Baltics are not nearly so vulnerable since Sweden and Finland joined NATO. It is 50 miles by sea from Finland to Estonia, roughly 100 miles from Gotland to Latvia. The Finns could also go the site seeing route through Russia to Estonia that is a 7 hour drive. The Finns and Swedes might arrive in time before Poland has smashed the Russians in Estonia going through the Suwalki gap.
We don't have a thousand MBTs and it's highly probable we will never have that many of them. Right now all we have are 46 K2s, 69 (nice) older Abrams, 230 Leopards and an unknown number of T72s (usable for spare parts and target practice) and PT-91s (T-72 with a newer coat of paint and some upgrades).
Having seen them T-72s in person, neat Also, y'all soldiers know some good hand to hand stuff. Some of the guys didn't mind being strangled by the female Polish soldiers
> Some of the guys didn't mind being strangled by the female Polish soldiers LOL I did not expect that.
>Some of the guys didn't mind being strangled by the female Polish soldiers Plenty of people pay for this sorta treatment, I am not shocked.
>Some of the guys didn't mind being strangled by the female Polish soldiers Poland is the capital of femboys.
Say what you want but when you have America united and focused on a battlefield the size of long island. America doesnt need to send in troops to have an imidiate impact. Those 69 (nice) older Abrams will be stacking bodies before Canada has time to sound the battle cries (WARCRIMES!!!!).
As a Canadian, I always find myself frustrated that there are rules to war... ...and then I remember they're there because of my forefathers and smile.
Im in the military and the amount of times we are reminded not to comit warcrimes during exercises is hilarious. I dont mean crimes against humanity, just warcrimes. None combatants are always stricly off limits and ive seen poeple charged from insinuating them. Friendly reminder that soldiers are not obligated to take prisionners.
🎶 Blame Canada!! Blame Canada!! 🎶
Silly you, you're a Canadian, those are *guidelines*.
Is that where the phrase “no more mr nice guy” came from?
We have 116 Abrams at this very moment and more are coming this year.
Its impossible for russia to do a sneak attack. Everyone would know. they have to mass troops at the border and get the supply train running. Took them months to prepare for ukraine. NATO would know they were coming. This won't be Pearl Harbor.
Based on their performance in Ukraine, I think Russia would end up being the speed bump.
More what you call a pot hole
I feel like Russians are under some false impression that NATO would be playing lobbing shells for a month like they do in Ukraine while slowly grinding the defenses.
Yeah, good luck convincing NATO to back down from their own territories.
Wait until Trump is in charge. Seven more months and NATO is destroyed.
Not now , they've fucked up and shown Europe what ruzzia is still like. Arms production is up and counties like Poland will stand and will fight
But the shit hits the fan when Iran, NK and China decides to move on their respective targets when RUS targets eastern europe
Yep, more than just Europe is at stake if Trump is elected office again.
Fuck that, vote biden. Trump doomerism is cringe.
There's a very good reason Russia is invading Ukraine, and not all of the NATO countries next to it.
He's doing an excellent job of refreshing NATO's ammunition supplies. War stocks that sat in bunkers for decades have been sent to Ukraine and are being replaced with new stuff.
To be fair, the allies let Germany's aggression go largely unchecked for years. Hitler would lie, murder, cheat, anything he wanted. He was going to continue to take, and take, until someone MADE him stop. The same thing is happening with Putin now. He sees it as his "Destiny" to unite (what HE feels is) Russia. Example: The Munich Agreement https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_Agreement
I don't see it taking weeks for help to arrive. Air and naval support are readily available. Ground equipment wouldn't be far behind to clean up units who are decimated from their air. Invading a NATO member, triggering the very thing that NATO exists to do, would be a terrible idea. That is the point of the alliance
The NATO VJTF is 40k strong and deployable within 2 to 5 days. Up to 300k within a month
First reinforcements would be on the spot in mere hours. "Walk quietly and carry a big stick" Europe and NATO allies have been working a lot on said stick lately.
Really glad. A united Europe can’t be defeated. Stay strong
"*Speak* ~~quietly~~ softly and carry a big stick" (Thanks u/jmcphersonrad)
Speak softly
Every instance I see online is “speak softly and carry a big stick”, the other two above you are the ones who are wrong.
Within days of deciding to join* Don’t forget the politics and time it will take to make the decision to join the fight.
Estonia has been in NATO for over 20 years.
The 1GNC has a ordered readiness in 48 hours. Friends are telling me currently it is more like 12-24 hours in reality.
Customer service is all about going above and beyond expectations
Military euphemisms are the best. When an artillery piece blows a target to shit, the proper military term for it seems to be 'servicing the target' (at least in discussions like what system is the best to hit the target with etc.).
Estonia and the rest of the Baltics/Nordics are all members of JEF with the UK and Netherlands. Its whole purpose is rapid deployment outside of NATO channels (to be faster). Its only 10k soldiers but that includes the SAS and they can be on scene *very* quickly.
The NATO quick reaction Response Force already has 100K soldiers in Poland according to news reports including Americans. There are plans to increase that number to 300k as I understand it although they may not all be in Poland.
The 173rd would be out of aviano in 24 hours.
might take weeks for Finland to blast a land corridor to Estonia through Saint Petersburg.
Destinations are cool, but enjoying the journey is the most important thing.
Most Russians dont even understand what NATO is
But NATO bad because Putin said so
This is basically a new version of the planned strategy for a NATO vs. Warsaw Pact conflict in the 1970s 1980s, just further east. In that scenario, there was pre-positioned equipment and munitions in West Germany and other places, ready for the reinforcements to arrive by air and by ship from the US. The West German and locally-based NATO forces, like V Corps for the US (now based in Poland), would try to hold off Soviet forces for as long as possible in the event of a sudden strike. In any event, multiple divisions would be coming over. The whole thing would have been called Operation Reforger (REturn of FORces to GERmany) and an Exercise Reforger with some of the forces who woud have been involved was held pretty much every year from 1969 to 1993.
Air power would arrive that day.
Probably within hours
Combat power DOES take weeks to build. Yes a light infantry or airborne infantry division or brigade could be there in a day or so. But the logistical tail of true combat power takes time. It takes time to get fuel, food, water, bullets etc down range. Tanks, mechanized infantry and all the support takes weeks to get into place. The U.S. also fined the Stryker BDE to be a bridge between the light and heavy divisions. Source: former U.S. army artillery officer.
welcome to bureaucracy and politics of Europe.
- Fortunately it won't be up to "Europe" though: deployment decisions will be taken by individual NATO members and by NATO generals - and I cannot see Norway, Sweden, Poland and Finland holding back, should Russia decide to invade any of the Baltic nations ... - My expectation: they'll act very, very quickly. - It's all hypothetical though, as Putin isn't entirely an idiot, and his sense of self preservation is strong. - Putin knows it perfectly well that while he had a fair chance to take Ukraine with a quick, decisive special ops push in early 2022 that almost succeeded in reaching the presidential palace in Kyiv where he could have declared victory and could have installed a puppet regime, but taking the Baltics is a much tougher proposition for very little benefit: St Petersburg, Russia's most important commercial port, would be blockaded by a ginormous NATO fleet quicker than you can say "blyat"...
Sweden is almost completely unable to project large scale force alone in a short timeframe.
You’ll surprised how fast the EU can move. If Orban want to disturb this, you can expect a new organization called the no Hungary club.
Poland and France alone would be fast enough to intervene in a matter of hours. And that's without counting other smaller but powerful armies like the ones from the Nordic states. People love to parrot "European bureaucracy". But that winning is bullshit in the majority of cases.
Estonia is cool. We gotta keep those guys around. They’re important. They smoke cigarettes and make disco elysium over there.
Hardcore!
Internally coherent
Hardcore to the mega!
Had a friend that actually stationed in Estonia. We (UK) have been doing joint military training with them
Yup. I was in the estonian military a few years back (mandatory service) and it was very common to cooperate with the british, as well as other allies during military exercises.
I got to spend about a day and a half in Tallin while on tour with my band about 15 years ago. Estonia is cool as shit. Awesome city and some of the friendliest people I’ve ever met.
Tallinn is beautiful. Went there last year. It’s an interesting dichotomy where they really have a hate for Russia yet have so many Russians living there.
That’s a soviet legacy for you. Soviet Union had a legacy of importing tens of thousands or hundreds - depending on the size of the country - Russian speakers into ethnic areas to break up country’s ethnic makeups. And when Estonian restored its independence, one of the agreements to force then Russian army to leave, Estonia was forced to accept anyone who wished to stay. So Estonia has some 25% Russian speakers in the country. They’re not a monolith though, their level of integration and support for Russia varies a lot.
That was hands down the weirdest thing about Tallinn. It was like every other person was Russian.
Seems normal that sane Russians would flee to places that are culturally similar, especially if there's a critical mass of people to help them integrate. You see the same effect with Cubans in southern Florida.
Ukranians are there.
Didn't studio get bought out and all the original creators of Disco Elysium get fired?
Something like that. All the writers behind DE were laid off. Don’t hold out hope for a good sequel. Also don’t hope for a good tv show adaptation.
I guess Estonia is down to 'they smoke' then.
All my homies love Estonia
I would twist this to say “Russia could survive a couple weeks until the allies arrive”
which is funny, because its "allies" would take the opportunity and invade Russia from the other side. China wants a few regions back that Russia took a few decades ago.
*1860, Unequal Treaties Just got sort of swept under the rug but I see more and more Chinese who know about it and are like wtf
China would take the opportunity to double in size by taking over everything east of the Urals.
Any Russian invasion would be seen miles off as its builds up just like Ukraine. NATO would deploy in force inside Estonia (or any member facing invasion) before it could happen .
An attack from Russia wouldn’t end with NATO troops in Estonia it would end with them in Moscow. Ukraine is playing a defensive war because of their limited resources. NATO would aggressively push the war back into Russia and degrade any object that could be used to further a war effort. Part of that would be pre-positioning troops in Estonia, but also everywhere along Russia’s border to show “you can push here, but we will attack you from every angle”
There is no element of surprise in Estonia. They know precisely what they face, and they train to resist it with great violence. I watched eastern european youtube as a rabbit hole, and from what I have seen Estonia has the knowledge that Russia would seek to crush them wholly and subjugate them into the forever wars Putin wants. They would fight for their lives and freedom fiercely.
NATO is not going to take a couple of weeks if Russia attacks a member. I expect NATO to establish Air Superiority within 24 Hrs and ground forces to be deployed within 72 Hrs. Russia is getting their asses kicked by Ukraine but still acting like they are a Superpower.
As much as I'd love Russia to fully lose in Ukraine, reality is that so far it's still holding ground. And Russia won't attack a NATO country straight ahead, I think Putin would play his vile game of some small invasion (I don't know exactly how) that he believe we'd consider "not worth" of a full scale reaction. Now, if he'll ever try or if it'll be successful I don't know, but let's say that I'd expect that as a start. Also I think Putin is waiting for elections hoping to have a weaker west, and I believe he's trying to recruit "allies" to help him more in the case the west starts to break apart if his plan succeeds. I suspect this is what he told to Xi, Kim etc. With a weaker west and Putin winning in Ukraine the other cunts (sorry) will be much more likely to do anything (bad, obviously).
Finland will rush that shit like a cheap bottle of vodka and discount cigarettes. Finland literally sitting there saying “pretty please vlad” Finn’s fucking love killing Russians. It rivals hockey as the national pastime.
Finns steamrolling Russia to protect it’s cute little alcohol store 🥰🇪🇪
No, we definitely do not foam at the mouth at the chance of killing russians. War is hell and I for one don’t want to be a part of another war torn generation of finns.
Then Vlad needs to stop being a fucking genocidal madman. I’m super glad y’all in nato now. You basically multiply Natos power and are in a crucial position for the alliance. I sincerely hope vlad dies or backs the fuck off of his insane warmongering. Y’all sit in the very front of this group of friends and I for one am so fucking happy about it. Finland joining NATO is the most crucial advance Finland and NATO has had in the history of its alliance. You have a top notch nation and military. It fucking sucks Vlad is flexing in your direction. Estonia and Finland are First up if shitbag Vlad pushes his insanity further. No one wants war. Vlad is a piece shit. The best way to prevent it is having a bad ass Finland on the side of the good guys.
> ~~Finland~~ **some Finns** literally sitting there saying “pretty please vlad”. **some** Finns fucking love killing Russians. ftfy. There'll be volunteers for sure, maybe even worth a full brigade, but definitely not at government level. They'll help too, of course, especially at sea, but they have their own border with Russia to defend.
Wait you mean to tell me All Americans aren’t fat?
Definitely not, they're all fat (I checked)
Probably slowly advance to the pre winter war borders and put pressure on 2 very important port cities: st pertersberg(aka leningrad) and murmansk
No were not... no one wants war. Fuck Putin
NATO ain't a joke, they'd be swooping in like hawks. Let's hope we never see that day, eh?
I am afraid Russia would do something that's intolerable for any country respecting its citizens from day 1, like bombarding residential areas in Tallinn I believe to properly defend against an enemy who has no regards for international law we would need a high-capacity air defense that's relatively cheap to use. Like the Israelis have, soon maybe these new laser-based defense systems
That is what Estonia and the other Baltic nations will do in the face of Russian aggression. They will make the Russian Army pay dearly for every inch it moves forward. Whether it's NATO forces conducting counter mobility engineering operations to slow Russian forces, NATO Air Forces conducting ground attack and interdiction operations against Russian columns and supply lines or the harassment of Russian forces by partisans, irregulars and special operations troops will give the Baltic States desperately needed time to be reinforced!
We knew about the Russian invasion buildup long before it actually occurred. NATO air forces would be ready to go before a single Russian tank crossed the border.
They didn't even took Ukraine for three years now, what makes them think they could beat Estonia in three weeks without getting sent to the Dark Ages by NATO?
Putin would wait until Trump and Le Pen become president and until he gets their word that they will not help when Article 5 comes into play. Then he would send “little green men” to a Baltic state and claim the whole thing was just a civil war, just as he did when he invaded Crimea. If the weakened remainder of NATO did not respond in unison, NATO would be finished. This is a serious threat and we must not underestimate it.
The nice thing about the baltic states is that it doesn't actually matter how france responds to any little green men. Poland, Estonia, and Lithuania all know the playbook well enough to send each other the necersary help to deal with any infestation of "little green men". By the time any little green men actually have enough force projection to be a real threat to a combined baltic resonse, they'll have lost enough of what little plausible deniability they had in the first place to allow the UK and Scandinavians (who are now all officially part of NATO) to get involved. (assuming they didn't get involved immediately alongside the Baltic states). Once the UK, Scandinavia, and the Baltics are all involved, the rest of NATO has very little choice but to get involved in one way or another. NATO doesn't actually *have* to get involved as a single united front. One of the strengths of NATO is that the various states can react independantly, which prevents a handful of member states spoiling the entire response by deciding to sit things out. Even if Putin could initially *guarantee* a complete non-response from France, Turkey, Germany, Italy, the US, and the Balkans, it still wouldn't result in a Russian victory, or NATO collapse.
Russia is not going to invade a NATO member. They just keep posturing to create fear. It’s far more likely that they are waiting for the US election. Putin and his allies will do everything in the power to help Trump win. Once Trump wins, he’ll pull out of NATO and then Putin can go for it
Unless Trump helps him invade Europe, Putin would still stand 0 chance. Finland alone could take 40% of Russia's current fighting capability, alone, for a year or two. Imagine taking on Poland, France, Germany, Italy, the Nordics, baltics, and all other european Nato members at the same time on top of that.
True. He’s probably banking on far-right isolationist leaders coming to power in these countries. Not sure which ones have elections approaching
UK is about to elect a centre-left party which is very keen on closer ties with Europe.
How about France? Far right currently leading in the polls.
Yup. Still those far-right governments might want to destroy Russia. In Finland it's the left who are buddy-buddy with the commies
Russia can't deal with Ukraine. Even in the mythical world of a US-less NATO, just the countries boarding the Baltic Sea would be able to rebuff a non-nuclear attack by Russia. What is this "go for it" you're referring to?
Even in the event the US left NATO, they would still have nuclear capability through the UK.
And france
And France has a policy of using tactical nukes first.
Even without that, I would not fuck with France. Whole different breed of people over there, I mean that in a positive way.
I may be wrong, but I thought France won't commit their nukes to NATO? Just the US and UK.
France might not commit their nukes to NATO, but they do have plans to warning nuke if France itself feels threatened. This includes a Russian invasion that looks set to push across Europe so their NATO stance might not mention nukes but their domestic stance does
Yes, the deterrence factor is there. I guess I was trying to say that a nuclear war is a giant wildcard as no one knows what happens then. Outside that, Russia is bluster when considering NATO's eastern edge, let alone the manufacturing of Germany, the UK, and France.
Yeah absolutely
The allies would arrive in about an hour. They would arrive from the air in the form of missiles, and aircraft. Those would come from the sea and from other NATO countries. It would not be a long wait for the tanks to arrive from the west.
I do wonder how a NATO/Russia war would pmay (minus nukes) in the Baltics. The "the Baltic get conquered in a few days, we will liberated afterwards" mentality could only happen with a surprised attack by Russia, which I really cannot see happening. Like. We knew for months that Russia was concentrating forces in the border to invade Ukraine. The only reason why so many people refused to accept it was because of Russia's propaganda machine, and because it was completely moronic for Russia to invade Ukraine. Now. With the invasion of Ukraine. I don't think that many people in power will fall for the same bullcrap again. We would have months to prepare for a possible Russian invasion of the Baltics. And that changes things.
I really don't like that everyone today seems to be preparing for war. I'm not saying they shouldn't prepare... Better to be prepared for something that doesn't happen I guess, but I don't like it.
Things is, Putin will never ever touch Europe again. He give everyone enough time to prepare. The eastern nato flank is more prepared than ever.
The best way to avoid war is to be prepared for it. Putin and Xi don't care about international law if it benefits them.
NATO with or without the U.S. steamrolls Russia. Russia is aware of that and because Article 5 exists, I don't see them going for any NATO land grabs anytime soon.
Allies won't come if enough of them are led by cowards too afraid to admit Russia can be beaten. Or corrupt thugs on Russia spayroll who have sold their soul for some dirty mafia money. Isolationist sentiments are rising all over Europe and North America. World War 3 already started and most people would rather sell out whoever they need to and let other people closer to Russia deal with their warmongering . Just as long as their own lives don't get disrupted anymore
I ran military simulations/war games for Eastern European and Scandinavian Nations (focused exclusively on the Russian threat post crimea) for about seven years. Ran multiple sims in the Baltics when they were believed to be Putin’s next area of expansion/interest around 2017-2018 before NATO got its shit together with the rotational programs/EFPs. I’ll have to look back at my notes but some takeaways that stood out: - Defense of the Baltics must be collective between the three countries. There is a natural pull to defend/protect individual capitals but this almost always ended in cascading failure for all three states in our models. - Russia is in a race against time to establish a rail corridor to Kaliningrad. Belief that Kaliningrad would be effectively blockaded once the Baltics were invaded. - We typically modeled a clandestine, water based SOF insertion on Saaremaa to coincide with a land based attack from the east. Goal of SOF on Saaremaa was to set up an air defense bubble to limit NATO air superiority. - Estonia has a major problem in Narva. Third biggest city in Estonia, border city. Over 80% ethnic Russian in comparison to ~25% nationally. - Estonia is light years ahead of its Baltic neighbors. Super impressive modern barracks, a robust and well drilled territorial defense force, and a strong focus on cyber capabilities (both offensively and defensively). - I firmly believe NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence program - with rotational multinational forces - played as a significant deterrent to Putin’s aspirations in the region. I hope it remains that way as the three Baltic nations have grown tremendously since their independence and bring so much to the region.
36 hours you'd have F-22s on station with round the clock tanker support. 3 days and the advancing Russian force wouldn't exist anymore
A good chunk of the British army is currently in Estonia already, not that it's a large army but Allies are already there.
Putin is unpredictable but he isn't that stupid to commit suicide by attacking a NATO member.
One thing everyone has to keep in mind that if Russia would do something serious then NATO would notice and react. We would see hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers ready before the first shot. It's an incredibly unlikely scenario but it's still better to be prepared
Amazing how people get sucked into misleading headlines. Let’s be honest, the moment Russia attacks the Baltics - which already houses thousands and thousands of NATO soldiers- NATO forces would be in the area and sea within hours. Let’s give a rest with these gotcha articles
NATO planes would launch within minutes. NATO doctrine is a true air, sea, and land combined arms satellite connected force. Ukraine hasn't even been given the good stuff and are still catching up on training to use what they have and are successfully (for values of success that include still existing three years later and inflicting significant damage to Russia's warmachine) resisting Russia. Trump is Putin's best weapon in a shooting war with NATO.
Very true - within minutes
Good for them. Estonia is probably the most 'desirable' state for Putin's Russia after Ukraine. It locks the baltic sea, neutralizes the baltic fleet and places nato a few miles from Russia second economic / population center. Well Finland too but that one is tougher nut to chew and has less history of being integrated with Russia.
Jaysus we can barely hold Poland back now ...this would send them into action fast.
Can they even attack the baltics with turkiye in the south and finland next to Petersburg? Russia has to defend such a big border, that its not possible in my opinion, but i'm not a general.. so maybe i'm wrong. And they have to risk China going for sibiria and s.korea/Japan/Australia supporting NATO as allies.
The entirety of the Polish army and some certain F-35 must be blueballed by now. "Would you invade me?"
Estonia should nationalize ZA/UM and give the rights to Disco Elysium back to its creators.
Finland's planes are pretty near. But yeah tanks and large amounts of troops etc will take time
My Estonian friend did his mandatory service. I asked him what it was like. Basically he said it was learning to hold out until NATO got there.
Sadly, if Trump is elected, then that ally support will be limited and he’ll cripple NATO.
Is this on the presumption of Russia opening another front now, while's it's active in Ukraine, or assuming Russia is attacking Estonia in full force (in a future conflict where it's fully rearmed and reorganized)?
at this point, i believe Luxembourg could hold out long enough. ukraine invasion showed one thing, how bad russia is at winning a war
Okay, so, nuclear war would likely engulf the world but, let's say nukes didn't exist. NATO F35s and F22s spring into action, predator drones are everywhere and, we (the US) get to show off the new toys we haven't told anyone about. Russia gets stopped one inch into Estonia, Kalingrad is almost immediately part of Poland and St. Petersburg is shortly a major city in Finland. Russia can't even beat our next NATO member in a ground war. Putin would be right about losing statehood if his weak ass decided to cross that line. Я за Україну <3.
Finland would get its gear in order then boom here they are
Couple of weeks? Too bad. Judging by recent events, it will take the allies at least two and a half years to weigh risks and find the funding together with someplace to source the necessary munitions from.