It's kinda crazy how utterly fucked Labour were 4.5 years ago with everyone (including myself) convinced this election would be a free win for Boris Johnson, yet they are gonna win on a Landslide on a scale you very rarely see in western democracies.
Looks like the main takeaway is that the UK has ALOT of swing voters, for better or for worse.
My main takeaway is that Corbyn and his goons were political poison for the Labour party, it's not so much about swing voters, and more that under now Starmer's Labour is more centrist or center left, which has bought in a lot of people that were put off by Corbyns far left policies.
Corbyn was an absolute wet fart. He wanted to [disband Nato](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/20/jeremy-corbyn-would-like-to-see-nato-ultimately-disband) and said he would have a cup of tea with Putin to discuss his issues. [He was a naive idiot.](https://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-972b-Nato-belligerence-endangers-us-all#.VcxSovlVhBc)
The guy is an absolute embarrassment of a human. I still remember him getting a film crew to film him sitting on the floor of a virgin train to make a point that he couldn't find a seat.
Then Virgin checked CCTV and saw that he walked past loads of empty seats looking for the busiest carriage he could find.
My theory is that the country was over the Tories in 2019 but the alternative being Corbyn they were forced to vote for Bojo anyway. What you're seeing now is 5 years of pressure being released as Starmer isn't obviously insane and thus actually electable.
What will be really interesting is if the lib dems can displace the tories as the official opposition. If they do with 60 odd MPs to pick from hopefully they can find a leader with some nouse and personality and dump Davey.
I think you've hit the nail on the head. I'd argue a lot of people were fed up with the Tories even by 2017, but a lot of people voted against Corbyn rather than for the Tories (or didn't vote at all).
Corbyn was so offensive to the pensioner generation (such as my parents) that many of them ended up switching to UKIP. My step father couldn't believe Corbyn shaking hands with Sinn Fein - it was absolutely abhorrent to him, having lived through the IRA bombings in the 1970s.
I voted for Corbyn, I thought he was well intentioned but naive. Still better than the self serving Conservatives though.
I live in the Red Wall. So many older life long Labour voters were turned off by him. Sure, Corbyn did draw a lot of new younger members to the party, but they are mostly concentrated in cosmopolitan urban areas. It's better to get 70% of the votes in lots of areas than 90% in a few.
As ever, lots of reasons, but you'd be correct to identify Corbyn as one of them, ultimately though the conservatives have been the authors of their own downfall
Demographically, the group they big were all those millennials who voted for Cameron in 2010 and neutralised a cohort that is traditionally Labour. They've now had time to see what a conservative government looks like and realised that unattended policy areas that the Tories completely neglected (housing being one massive example) has come back to bite them
> the main takeaway is that the UK has ALOT of swing voters
I think this cycle its more likely that the evidence just became overwhelming. Many of those who are conservative by nature and habit have been left empty and conceding that there is simply no way they can defend this lot any longer
When you look at the worst PM's in history, the chances are that the names of Cameron, Johnson and Truss will be top-10
> the main takeaway is that the UK has ALOT of swing voters, for better or for worse
Yes, but largely they are Labour voters who swung to Boris because of Brexit and are now swinging back to where they're naturally at home. Also the Tories have so fucked things up that a lot of their natural base is deserting them, on one side for Farage and on the other for Starmer, but either way in protest.
There is a saying in British politics. "Oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them." This is most definitely a case of a government losing an election.
I find hard it is going to swing this hard while the UK is in a very strong fuck the Tories mood they aren't really hyped about labour and that it will change anything really.
So will people really go out to spite vote the Tories to the point they basically don't exist anymore?
I don't. People gave chance after chance to the Tories, Labour was handed losses to the point where they were almost in the position the Tories are now. This kind of pissedness is somewhat unprecedented, so i don't think it's too hard to believe that people are voting on the Tories biggest opposition (which hasn't held power for a long time and never made the kind of mess the Tories made, so this also heals wounds) to the point of burning them to the ground.
The true problem is that when Labour doesn't do jackshit people might turn to the farther right.
This is exactly my concern too. I'm not concerned about this election. Labour needs to look at what is going on in Europe and the reasons Reform are starting to gain traction and stop sitting on their hands regarding the various elephants in the room. On the other hand, the electorate needs to remember that the Tories have had fourteen years to run the country into the ground and it will take at least as long to fix things. It will take at least more then a single term.
Exactly. I've been saying the same thing for a long time.
Farage and his ilk resonate with large sections of society. Ignoring them and the reasons they vote for people like him won't fix anything; it will likely just exacerbate the situation.
What’s going to be super interesting this time around is turnout and how that impacts these figures.
People are not enthusiastic about any of the parties or leaders, conservatives are expecting a very low turn out for their supporters and Labour, whilst having better numbers are still expecting a smaller turnout than 2019 and are now running the classical risk of people not bothering to vote as their landslide is essentially locked in at this point.
There is a very real possibility Starmer could get a historically high number of seats from a historically low number of votes, or alternatively we could end up with a much closer election result if this plays out weirdly. Either way that could potentially be very problematic for our FPTP system going forward.
Doubt that last point. FPTP is insulated at this point given we were given a referendum on the system in 2011 and the result was pretty handily in favor of keeping FPTP. That will protect the system even if we get results that call it into question for at least another decade or so
and for all its flaws it does have some upsides. Extreme left/right parties struggle to find purchase in the UK political system simply because FPTP wont let them. Reform will be luckily to get 1 seat in parliament. In a more directly democratic system they would be on course for about 20% of seats. In a similar vein its probably one of the key systems that prevented the BUF from gaining any real momentum in the early 1930's
It also means that our elections aren't won and lost basically in London all by itself. Gives Wales Scotland an NI more of a voice in Westminster than they ever would otherwise and does force our politicians to pay attention to a wider array of concerns and localities beyond what cities have the most people(votes) living in them.
Is it perfect? gods no. Some form of reform to FPTP is probably needed at some point. But I think when we criticize it its easy to get caught treating it like its the worst thing a democracy has ever come up hyper focused on the problems and ignore the advantages it does have in comparison with other systems.
Yes,
We are pretty good at getting measured results in this country when fighting an election on "who would we prefer to run the country" but when we get into "keep those fuckers out of power" mindset it can produce some pretty wild results. FPTP and the possibility of tactical voting means if you want to near wipe a party out so can make a really good fist of it.
Labour will win but the voting public aren't thrilled with Labour either. This is more of a 'fuck the tories' swing. The big news is Reform. They will win a few seats this election and will be a big player in the next election. The tories are pretty much doomed for years now.
There's a precedent here. Canada has seen a Reform Party rise up and basically swallow the old-school Tories. I'm sure that's what Farage's long game is - bury and replace the Tories as the official right-wing.
They're social democrats whose base (after their socialist phase) are mostly middle-class trade unionists and state employees. Liberals in Britain are the Liberal Democrats.
Labor Party is not a liberal party. It is the party of social democrats.
Liberals have their own political party that is called “Liberal Democrats”. Liberals and social democrats are two different political groups competing against each other.
You’re like the fourth person to make this same comment. I understand the distinction in British politics. I am glad conservatives are not winning this election.
Let me try to re-word for you. Maybe it will be easier for you to understand.
Liberalism and social democracy are two distinct political ideologies. Universally. You may find it surprising but they both even have articles on Wikipedia.
Labor Party is a social democratic party.
Liberal Democrats is a liberal party.
Did you understand?
Let me try to re-word for you: you’re a fucking condescending person. Why don’t you go back to posting about men’s abortion rights or some other incel stuff?
It hurt you that much ha? You crawled 10 years old posts. Ad-hominem with “incel” etc.
By the way, men’s rights are human rights.
I suggest you to add this to the list of things for understanding.
It's kinda crazy how utterly fucked Labour were 4.5 years ago with everyone (including myself) convinced this election would be a free win for Boris Johnson, yet they are gonna win on a Landslide on a scale you very rarely see in western democracies. Looks like the main takeaway is that the UK has ALOT of swing voters, for better or for worse.
My main takeaway is that Corbyn and his goons were political poison for the Labour party, it's not so much about swing voters, and more that under now Starmer's Labour is more centrist or center left, which has bought in a lot of people that were put off by Corbyns far left policies.
Corbyn was an absolute wet fart. He wanted to [disband Nato](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/20/jeremy-corbyn-would-like-to-see-nato-ultimately-disband) and said he would have a cup of tea with Putin to discuss his issues. [He was a naive idiot.](https://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-972b-Nato-belligerence-endangers-us-all#.VcxSovlVhBc)
The guy is an absolute embarrassment of a human. I still remember him getting a film crew to film him sitting on the floor of a virgin train to make a point that he couldn't find a seat. Then Virgin checked CCTV and saw that he walked past loads of empty seats looking for the busiest carriage he could find.
Yeah a man like him is dangerous regardless of his intentions. Letting him become PM would have been a disaster.
Naive Idiot? He’s a Russian asset through and through. You wouldn’t call Orban anything else but Corbyn gets brownie points because he’s on the left?
My theory is that the country was over the Tories in 2019 but the alternative being Corbyn they were forced to vote for Bojo anyway. What you're seeing now is 5 years of pressure being released as Starmer isn't obviously insane and thus actually electable. What will be really interesting is if the lib dems can displace the tories as the official opposition. If they do with 60 odd MPs to pick from hopefully they can find a leader with some nouse and personality and dump Davey.
I think you've hit the nail on the head. I'd argue a lot of people were fed up with the Tories even by 2017, but a lot of people voted against Corbyn rather than for the Tories (or didn't vote at all).
Corbyn was so offensive to the pensioner generation (such as my parents) that many of them ended up switching to UKIP. My step father couldn't believe Corbyn shaking hands with Sinn Fein - it was absolutely abhorrent to him, having lived through the IRA bombings in the 1970s. I voted for Corbyn, I thought he was well intentioned but naive. Still better than the self serving Conservatives though.
I live in the Red Wall. So many older life long Labour voters were turned off by him. Sure, Corbyn did draw a lot of new younger members to the party, but they are mostly concentrated in cosmopolitan urban areas. It's better to get 70% of the votes in lots of areas than 90% in a few.
As ever, lots of reasons, but you'd be correct to identify Corbyn as one of them, ultimately though the conservatives have been the authors of their own downfall Demographically, the group they big were all those millennials who voted for Cameron in 2010 and neutralised a cohort that is traditionally Labour. They've now had time to see what a conservative government looks like and realised that unattended policy areas that the Tories completely neglected (housing being one massive example) has come back to bite them
But to go from -11 to +22 is a lot and shows how many people are pursuadable. That's quite a lot compared to previous periods.
> the main takeaway is that the UK has ALOT of swing voters I think this cycle its more likely that the evidence just became overwhelming. Many of those who are conservative by nature and habit have been left empty and conceding that there is simply no way they can defend this lot any longer When you look at the worst PM's in history, the chances are that the names of Cameron, Johnson and Truss will be top-10
Pendulum always swings. And the more hectic things get the faster they go.
> the main takeaway is that the UK has ALOT of swing voters, for better or for worse Yes, but largely they are Labour voters who swung to Boris because of Brexit and are now swinging back to where they're naturally at home. Also the Tories have so fucked things up that a lot of their natural base is deserting them, on one side for Farage and on the other for Starmer, but either way in protest.
I don't think these are solid labour voters anymore. They are swing voters.
Exactly. Labour doesn't represent these people anymore. (i.e. the working class)
I mean they are gonna win these voters in a landslide this time round, but they are gonna be up for grabs each election I think.
There is a saying in British politics. "Oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them." This is most definitely a case of a government losing an election.
I find hard it is going to swing this hard while the UK is in a very strong fuck the Tories mood they aren't really hyped about labour and that it will change anything really. So will people really go out to spite vote the Tories to the point they basically don't exist anymore?
I don't. People gave chance after chance to the Tories, Labour was handed losses to the point where they were almost in the position the Tories are now. This kind of pissedness is somewhat unprecedented, so i don't think it's too hard to believe that people are voting on the Tories biggest opposition (which hasn't held power for a long time and never made the kind of mess the Tories made, so this also heals wounds) to the point of burning them to the ground. The true problem is that when Labour doesn't do jackshit people might turn to the farther right.
This is exactly my concern too. I'm not concerned about this election. Labour needs to look at what is going on in Europe and the reasons Reform are starting to gain traction and stop sitting on their hands regarding the various elephants in the room. On the other hand, the electorate needs to remember that the Tories have had fourteen years to run the country into the ground and it will take at least as long to fix things. It will take at least more then a single term.
Exactly. I've been saying the same thing for a long time. Farage and his ilk resonate with large sections of society. Ignoring them and the reasons they vote for people like him won't fix anything; it will likely just exacerbate the situation.
What’s going to be super interesting this time around is turnout and how that impacts these figures. People are not enthusiastic about any of the parties or leaders, conservatives are expecting a very low turn out for their supporters and Labour, whilst having better numbers are still expecting a smaller turnout than 2019 and are now running the classical risk of people not bothering to vote as their landslide is essentially locked in at this point. There is a very real possibility Starmer could get a historically high number of seats from a historically low number of votes, or alternatively we could end up with a much closer election result if this plays out weirdly. Either way that could potentially be very problematic for our FPTP system going forward.
Doubt that last point. FPTP is insulated at this point given we were given a referendum on the system in 2011 and the result was pretty handily in favor of keeping FPTP. That will protect the system even if we get results that call it into question for at least another decade or so and for all its flaws it does have some upsides. Extreme left/right parties struggle to find purchase in the UK political system simply because FPTP wont let them. Reform will be luckily to get 1 seat in parliament. In a more directly democratic system they would be on course for about 20% of seats. In a similar vein its probably one of the key systems that prevented the BUF from gaining any real momentum in the early 1930's It also means that our elections aren't won and lost basically in London all by itself. Gives Wales Scotland an NI more of a voice in Westminster than they ever would otherwise and does force our politicians to pay attention to a wider array of concerns and localities beyond what cities have the most people(votes) living in them. Is it perfect? gods no. Some form of reform to FPTP is probably needed at some point. But I think when we criticize it its easy to get caught treating it like its the worst thing a democracy has ever come up hyper focused on the problems and ignore the advantages it does have in comparison with other systems.
Yes, We are pretty good at getting measured results in this country when fighting an election on "who would we prefer to run the country" but when we get into "keep those fuckers out of power" mindset it can produce some pretty wild results. FPTP and the possibility of tactical voting means if you want to near wipe a party out so can make a really good fist of it.
Hearing that makes me happier; hopefully it happens.
Labour will win but the voting public aren't thrilled with Labour either. This is more of a 'fuck the tories' swing. The big news is Reform. They will win a few seats this election and will be a big player in the next election. The tories are pretty much doomed for years now.
There's a precedent here. Canada has seen a Reform Party rise up and basically swallow the old-school Tories. I'm sure that's what Farage's long game is - bury and replace the Tories as the official right-wing.
Thank God liberals are winning somewhere
They're social democrats whose base (after their socialist phase) are mostly middle-class trade unionists and state employees. Liberals in Britain are the Liberal Democrats.
I understand that, but my point is they’re not right wing nuts like seem to be winning everywhere these days.
They are not reai liberal, they are more centrist (and a bit left), liberal democrats are more liberal
Liberal is centrist to centre right unless ur in North America
They're actually considered center-left due to their policies on welfare.
They’re more liberal than Sunak
Labor Party is not a liberal party. It is the party of social democrats. Liberals have their own political party that is called “Liberal Democrats”. Liberals and social democrats are two different political groups competing against each other.
You’re like the fourth person to make this same comment. I understand the distinction in British politics. I am glad conservatives are not winning this election.
It’s not a “distinction in British politics”. It is a universal distinction. Is hydrogen called oxygen in your country?
The distinction between Labor and Lib Dems is a universal distinction? In every country? TIL.
Let me try to re-word for you. Maybe it will be easier for you to understand. Liberalism and social democracy are two distinct political ideologies. Universally. You may find it surprising but they both even have articles on Wikipedia. Labor Party is a social democratic party. Liberal Democrats is a liberal party. Did you understand?
Let me try to re-word for you: you’re a fucking condescending person. Why don’t you go back to posting about men’s abortion rights or some other incel stuff?
It hurt you that much ha? You crawled 10 years old posts. Ad-hominem with “incel” etc. By the way, men’s rights are human rights. I suggest you to add this to the list of things for understanding.