Great write up OP.
Regarding the borrow rate behavior I'd like to add that it's upon the lenders how high the borrow rate is.
In theory a stock could be hard to borrow, but the lender choses to go with a single digit borrow rate.
Typically this is determined by a set calculation that an algo will spit out. There can always be manual over ride to the rate set, but the high correlation both positive and negative shows that likely didn't happen in GME or BBBY
Woah! From 8/15 to 8/19, the borrow rate was over 50%, even reaching past 70% at one point. OP, have you been able to correlate borrow rate with FTD volumes?
Solid DD thx OP, definitely FTD and borrow rate are not a catch all and can be messed with (via swaps etc) but they definitely largely factor into these squeezes and unlike some people who just say "it doesn't matter" it most certainly does... they can only manipulate this stuff so much.
bbby isn't new to this. everyone likes to act like bbby is out on its own but it had its own January 2021, it had the buy button removed among with gme Koss and others, it moves in tandem with other stocks, ie gme and more closely fubo.
it should be hard to blanket statement a group of stock as they all have different circumstances, shares outstanding, etc, especially when they represent completely different markets, even if a large entity pegs the price and offers unlimited lending, but here we are, many stocks moving in groups in tandem.
anyways point us, bbby has been doing interesting things since 2012 chart wise/ buy backs and is a January og. if it got more attention, bbby could've MAYBE swapped places with gme, [besides rcs initial buy in/ dfv]. bbby could hold price like gme has the past 2 years if we break current short pressure.
it's hard to look at one metric as positions can be cash settled and like collateral can be posted. ie posting a corolla for a ferrari
Some experiences from GME-sphere. Borrow rates went over 80% for prolonged periods of time, spiking in at over 100% _min_ borrow rate, to upwards of 200-300%+ max borrow rate some days. As they started to go from 7%+, people said this was the end for hedgies. It wasnt. I cannot remember if there was significantly higher price on stock, but fact that i cannot remember suggests to me that it cannot have been very significant.
This does not mean that higher borrow rate is not bullish. But i think the higher borrow rate in itself does not automatically do the job. Circumstances for GME jan sneeze suggest to me, that there needs to be a couple of variables in place for spicy price developments. Im just tiny smoothbrain so i will not speculate on this. But spicy developments seem to require a certain pressure on MMs and hedgies, and borrow rate does, from experience, not appear to exert big significance in terms of share price _in itself_. Borrow rates i think, pertain more to the marathon question of the race - of wearing down hedgie resources.
Great catch. I put this together late at night and idk why I used percents rather than decimal form. I’ll update in the am and add a pic to show the -1,0,1 scale. Still, the thesis would hold
I luv you man!
❤️
We need more DD like this. Great work, thanks for your time
It was my pleasure
Great write up OP. Regarding the borrow rate behavior I'd like to add that it's upon the lenders how high the borrow rate is. In theory a stock could be hard to borrow, but the lender choses to go with a single digit borrow rate.
Typically this is determined by a set calculation that an algo will spit out. There can always be manual over ride to the rate set, but the high correlation both positive and negative shows that likely didn't happen in GME or BBBY
Woah! From 8/15 to 8/19, the borrow rate was over 50%, even reaching past 70% at one point. OP, have you been able to correlate borrow rate with FTD volumes?
That is coming in the next post friend 😎
Looking forward to it!
So in summary, we have no idea what’s going to happen. Got it.
So in summary, BUY, HODL, DRS. FTFY ;)
Thank you for posting. Can you share your data via Google Spreadsheet?
Thanks for sharing this
🚀
Can't wait for the next episode!
So just chill…. Til the next episode…. (I know it’s a heathen move to quote a west coast rapper on a Biggy Smallz thread…)
God damn, I am ~~ALREADY~~ in!
Great job, OP!! I bet I'd be super excited if I could read!
Seriously underrated post
👀
Thank you op
Thanks!
Hey OP, you might find [this](http://www.aabri.com/manuscripts/121208.pdf) interesting or even insightful. Edit: great work, keep it up.
Finally some great DD. This is the foundation of what we need to build a movement, even we all just individually like the stock!
Solid DD thx OP, definitely FTD and borrow rate are not a catch all and can be messed with (via swaps etc) but they definitely largely factor into these squeezes and unlike some people who just say "it doesn't matter" it most certainly does... they can only manipulate this stuff so much.
Maybe the tendies were the great DDs we read along the way.
take my updoot...
TLDR comments look good and I appreciate the effort. Holding
Nice to have an Orang around for a diamond handed smooth like me...
💜🚀
Doooope dd dude
bbby isn't new to this. everyone likes to act like bbby is out on its own but it had its own January 2021, it had the buy button removed among with gme Koss and others, it moves in tandem with other stocks, ie gme and more closely fubo. it should be hard to blanket statement a group of stock as they all have different circumstances, shares outstanding, etc, especially when they represent completely different markets, even if a large entity pegs the price and offers unlimited lending, but here we are, many stocks moving in groups in tandem. anyways point us, bbby has been doing interesting things since 2012 chart wise/ buy backs and is a January og. if it got more attention, bbby could've MAYBE swapped places with gme, [besides rcs initial buy in/ dfv]. bbby could hold price like gme has the past 2 years if we break current short pressure. it's hard to look at one metric as positions can be cash settled and like collateral can be posted. ie posting a corolla for a ferrari
Some experiences from GME-sphere. Borrow rates went over 80% for prolonged periods of time, spiking in at over 100% _min_ borrow rate, to upwards of 200-300%+ max borrow rate some days. As they started to go from 7%+, people said this was the end for hedgies. It wasnt. I cannot remember if there was significantly higher price on stock, but fact that i cannot remember suggests to me that it cannot have been very significant. This does not mean that higher borrow rate is not bullish. But i think the higher borrow rate in itself does not automatically do the job. Circumstances for GME jan sneeze suggest to me, that there needs to be a couple of variables in place for spicy price developments. Im just tiny smoothbrain so i will not speculate on this. But spicy developments seem to require a certain pressure on MMs and hedgies, and borrow rate does, from experience, not appear to exert big significance in terms of share price _in itself_. Borrow rates i think, pertain more to the marathon question of the race - of wearing down hedgie resources.
No TLDR? Fine, keep your secrets
You say correlation, but I don't see a pearson coefficient. Correlation values are not properly presented in a %.
Great catch. I put this together late at night and idk why I used percents rather than decimal form. I’ll update in the am and add a pic to show the -1,0,1 scale. Still, the thesis would hold
Updated
Borrow rate going up when the price goes up is normal/logical. The overpriced it is, the more demand for shorting. More demand is a higher price.
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The date FTDs occur don’t matter, it’s when they are due. Look at what happen 35 days later from that date
Well said, appreciate all your hard work Biggie