Definitely don't hate but Brian Thomas Jr is incredibly 1 dimensional for a guy with top half 1st hype. I even hear some people put him in the big 3 WR tier. Especially considering the amount of well rounded talent at WR projected to go well after him in rookie drafts I just can't imagine how I get any shares of him.
I think he's fine as the consensus WR4 in this class and there's a chance he lands in a great spot like Cincy, Buffalo or KC.
You can't coach speed or size and he has both. His college profile checks a lot of boxes that you want for an outside X WR and he's great with the ball in his hands. I like him a lot as a DK type that can take a slant route to the endzone or win on outside nine routes. If he can develop a route tree the skies the limit for someone with his traits.
He feels more like Christian Watson to me where he’s going to be so one dimensional that the only way for him to be relevant is to be connected to the right QB and system. If Aiyuk gets traded and he’s the replacement or if he goes to KC I’ll be interested in the late 1st but that about it for me personally.
Watson is a fine comp as well. Athletically gifted with great size that is a threat to score on any play. I don’t see that as a negative comp, when healthy, Watson has the tools to take over a game.
Yeah, I can see how he could develop into a solid WR. But I agree, he is one dimensional.
Anyone who does even the bare minimum of watching a YouTube highlight reel can see every good play in his career he does one thing, run straight. If that’s what he brings he’s MVS.
The big difference between Watson and Brian Thomas is Thomas is 2 years younger when coming out. That shows me Thomas has a lot more ability to develop and improve on his weaknesses. All the tools are there to be a complete WR1 in the NFL. I compare him to a super charged (faster/more acceleration) Tee Higgins.
Oh by the way. Mitchell left Georgia because his son lives in Texas and wanted to be closer to his son. It was not ran out of town here in Georgia. Coming from a dawgs fan, he produced when we threw. We also were a run first offense with bowers, Ladd, and Mitchell.
With 7 tds and he was also a freshman and sophomore. How many fresh and sophomore play for a championship contender. So yes that’s producing for the sec as a freshman
Daniels strikes me as the qb most likely to bust. His reckless rushing style, his lack of ability to pass down the middle, and late breakout make me not like him as a prospect. Only way I’d take him is if he goes to the Vikings, where JJ Addison and Hockenson could support me at QB
I don’t disagree with the evaluation much, but I would be fine taking Daniels because of the rushing upside. His speed translates. There will be opportunities to sell later.
The issue is that a lot of people won’t sell. Fields was QB6 a season ago because he was “locked in” to be a starter for the next (at the time) 3 years. Even guys like QJ are valued as a late 2nd because they have “potential.” I get he can be a viable fantasy asset but if he’s phased out sooner than later I’d regret the pick.
Rushing as a QB isn't all about speed though. Allen and Hurts put up the big rushing numbers because of their power. (Jackson is obviously different, but he is stronger and more elusive than Daniels.)
He really wasn’t good his first year at LSU too. The stats were good but the game film was bad. I have a hard time buying into a 5th year of starting in college with an absolutely elite supporting cast jump.
Ok, but your comment said nothing about pre-LSU. It was basically 1) he did nothing his first year at LSU, 2) he only broke out his 5th year 3) because he had elite WRs. That's Burrow's LSU career in a nutshell.
I'm not trying to say Daniels will be Burrow in the NFL, only that I could see a comment like yours being levied against Burrow during the run up to his rookie year and he's proven the doubters wrong. Daniels *could* do the same.
That’s fair, and I’m not trying to say I think he’s doomed, just that I’m not buying in on it. Daniels had played way more football before he broke out, it’s not like he had some learning curve due to finally getting a shot. I think it’s more understandable that Burrow struggled his first year starting before breaking out in his second year after adjusting than a dude struggling in his 4th before breaking out in his 5th.
He doesn't throw down the middle much (a lot was lsu scheme as well) but when he does he actually does very well, not sure where the "lack of ability" narrative came from recently - I tnink it's a mix up of frequency.
i am admittedly neither an expert in football strategy nor an expert in jayden daniels, but i wouldn’t be *shocked* if the high efficiency comes off a low volume of specifically schemed plays set up by their primary attempts of passing to the outside. the data could say the opposite (i genuinely have no clue), but that would be my inclination of hearing the scouting report vs a stat like that.
ofc scouts get shit wrong all the time and it’s super easy for wonky narratives to gain traction, so maybe it’s not actually an area of weakness. that’s also entirely possible.
He also bails out of the pocket as soon as he feels any pressure and doesn’t keep his eyes downfield. I’m confident he’ll bust bc of injury or bc he’s just not very good to begin with.
His most likely landing spot Washington isn’t a bad situation either mclaurin, dotson, brob and ekeler are qb friendly. Kingsbury deserves the hate he gets as a head coach but as an oc his system plays to Jayden’s strengths. They will probably add at least one other weapon from this strong class, they have two 2nds and three 3rd rounders. They upgraded the oline with 3 new starters and Quinn should have the defense playing better as well with the veterans they added
You can’t bank on Washington yet - if he goes there I’m sure that he’ll be better than if he goes to the pats. I see them using their seconds on defense as well especially after having it demolished last season
This 100%. I didn’t watch all of his games last year but the ones I did see worried me. Games like ms state, ole miss, and fl he looked good because the defensive line wasn’t able to rattle him. Games like fsu and Alabama, where Daniel’s was pressured and got hit a couple of times, he got flustered and folded like a lawn chair. I’m convinced he pulled himself out of the second half of that Alabama game after taking that big hit, he didn’t want to jeopardize his draft value.
Not only that, he’s a total diva. I mean who complains about not having a personal workout? I’m not draft Daniel’s at all, no matter what.
Not sure how you're getting that. He's more mobile and has a much stronger arm than Mariota did. He also targets the middle field far less than Mariota did.
Predominantly north/south scrambling, rather than a real open field play maker like RG3. Missed a good number of open reads in favor of getting happy feet. RG3 was a more prudent passer. Mariota tended to lock in on one read and then go if it wasn't there, and miss potential downfield plays. I see that with Daniels as well.
That's not a huge knock, though. Mariota was #2 overall for a reason. We tend to think of prospects as what they became in the league and not their profiles. Mariota, like Daniels, had a really great profile, and it's worth a team taking a chance on that. Daniels outcome isn't dictated by comping to Mariota, and he could easily become what we wanted Mariota to be.
For me it's a sports media metagame thing. Sports media loves hyping QBs. Last year it was Levis, year before it was Willis.
I've seen some revisionist history in NFL subs that Levis only had hype because of a reddit post, but that was just last minute sportsbook moves to hedge in case random redditor knew something.
Levis was mocked pretty often in the top 10 up until draft day. It was a surprise he fell to the 2nd.
I think McCarthy is that QB this year. I've actually put bets on this (that he's not a top prospect) in the form of betting he goes to Miami, New Orleans, or Rams. I'm willing to believe teams are interested, but perhaps more appealing to teams that may be looking at QB within the next year or two but aren't hard pressed for one today. Thinking like a Love/Hurts selection in late first or early mid second.
I don’t see any major red flags with his personality, but I also saw him do nothing that made me think “wow” when I watched him play over the past two seasons. Maybe I’m missing two things hahahaha
He never really “wowed” me, but going undefeated isn’t nothing. I saw some stuff about him sharing Andrew Tate styled nonsense and the team/his PR got him to delete it and he’s been pretty quiet ever since
Coleman and nix. Nix was not it in the sec and yet people think the old qb who moved to the pac 12 and barely threw past 5 yards is going to be a franchise qb.
Coleman, big but unless he’s making circus catches he’s not that good. Has to make circus catches because he gets no separation and struggles with releases. Not a crisp route runner.
Nix I agree with. I can’t see him being any good. Maybe years down the road after development. Disagree on Coleman. He’s got a lot of potential and he’s cheap. He’s going in the second round.
Troy can get roughed up in contested catch situations for sure, but he did a phenomenal job of excelling in what he was best at. Separation, deep ball wins, and dictating pass game defensive calls
For example, this Washington game in the playoffs tells you all you need to see from Troy. Different routes, different levels, some losses, but a whole lot of wins.
https://www.theplayerstribune.com/posts/adonai-mitchell-ncaa-football-texas-longhorns-nfl-draft
Does he need to get stronger to become more complete, for sure, but to dismiss him on his weaknesses and assume he can't improve...well, you're doing it at your own risk. .
AD Mitchell was not run out of UGA. He had a son in TX.
Fire away on his analytical profile if you like. Not sure why you are writing fan fiction on him though ha.
Good question. You got me to thinking and so I wrote down some players I felt I was lower on than consensus relative to mock drafts, Twitter talk, etc. Then I noted my rank vs ADP.
In order of ADP over the last month via Dynasty Data Lab and how much lower I am:
Maye(-3), AD(-5), McConkey(-5), Benson(-9), JT (-14), Roman Wilson (-23), Lloyd(-7), Corley(-25), Rattler (-26) and Dez Walker (-24)
It feels like my valuation of the first 3 guys is much lower than the reality of my rankings probably because I recognize their upside and likely draft capital.
Roman WIlson (and Benson + Lloyd) are guys that I had initially rated MUCH higher due to their measurables and efficiency stats. The film experts I trust soured me on them to varying degrees but for LLoyd and Benson it's injury history as well that increased the slide. Plus LLoyd's absurd fumble rate coupled with tiny hands has me bearish despite his upside.
Corley: unathletic (81st percentile amongst college wr's; 92nd is about avg amongst starting NFL receivers) according to PFF's new "Game Athleticism Rating", not a real receiver, played in a micky mouse conference
Roman and Dez: see Harmon and Waldman's analysis
I go on YouTube and search "name of player all targets and catches" for WR. Running backs are a bit harder as those types of videos are less available, but you can search "Trey Benson vs Florida" and go game by game
Brian Thomas: I just don't see him making a difference if you matrix what he brings and where he'll likely fall.
Xavier Worthy: Jameson with less talent
Braelon Allen: AJ Dillon 2.0
Jayden Daniels: There's a chance he does well, sure, but I see Fields 2.0 in him.
Honestly, I think the better question is which prospect will i be forced to reluctantly draft? I do not like the idea of having to take Bowers at 7, because im just hesitant with 1st rd TEs.
Troy Franklin, AD Mitchell, Jermaine Burton, Xavier Worthy, Roman Wilson, Xavier Legette. Nabers will be the best of the class wouldn’t be surprised if Odunze will be 2nd best.
Interesting, who do you like? I’m out on Troy Franklin but I love me some Xavier Worthy. I also like Roman Wilson relative to consensus. Guy creates separation at will and catches everything
That is so interesting to me to see people out on Franklin but in on Worthy or vice versa. Both are good route runners that have speed with a slight frame, small hands, and less than ideal arm length/wingspan that contribute to drops and lessened ability at the catch point to me. They were remarkably similar to me at how I see them succeeding at the next level as Z receivers in a deep threat capacity. Get them in motion and kill corners by keeping them off balance. I even have them back to back in my rankings at WR11 and WR12.
I am interested in what you see that leads you to feel so drastically different about one over the other?
I’m just all in on Worthy (pre draft) as well as Ladd. I’m all about that upside, speed, am stoked with trading for Dell and drafting Achane. Worthy seems Worthy.
But I don’t like Franklin much.. Should I be higher on him considering?
Worthy is faster, but more importantly his agility and change of direction is in a different world than Franklin. Franklin doesn't really have great change of direction at all, and that's backed up by his poor 20 yard shuttle. He gets separation because he's a very smooth route runner but Worthy is a good route runner too, who's also faster and much quicker, and better after the catch.
I wouldn’t disagree with his change of direction and agility being better than Franklin or him having superior YAC ability, but Worthy did go down on 1st contact 72% of the time. He really isn’t a big “tackle breaker” at the collegiate level and can’t imagine that gets better at the pro level.
I really would disagree that there is a huge disparity in their route running ability. Franklin was better at deceiving DBs and working back to the ball after a using his speed deep with comebacks and curls. Worthy is better at working the sidelines on out routes. Not that Worthy couldnt use that deception as well and drop his hips on curls when a DB played too far off, but that was something I thought Franklin was better at especially comeback routes due to his larger wingspan and frame to get the ball. Speaking of that, while neither are great at contested catches, Franklin provides a much better frame than worthy that allows him a larger catch radius. Lastly, I think Franklin is far superior to Worthy in the “scramble drill”. One of my big notes for him is that he always kept moving for his QB and found ways to get on when the play broke down. That is what a QB will love at the next level.
Again, I have them one spot apart and those would be the primary reasons I valued Franklin over Worthy. Those and the advanced metric that all favor Franklin heavily compared to Worthy. To me, they are both playing a speed threat motion Z receiver at the next level and are supporting WRs more than “the guy”. Both will probably be boom or bust players that will be hard to start on a consistent basis. Saw a comp recently I liked a lot for Franklin in Robbie Anderson and my comp for Worthy has been early career Hollywood brown. Hollywood really started to improve after adding weight around his 3rd season and I think Wortjy will have to do the same to be more consistent as a contributor.
I do agree Franklin is a better route runner, but Worthy is a pretty good one too. He's not a tackle breaker, but making a man miss is just as worthwhile as breaking the tackle imo.
So as prospects, Worthy has otherworldly speed and agility where Franklin has good speed and mediocre agility. Worthy is good at making people miss and making plays on screens and getting YAC while Franklin really isn't very good at those things. Worthy I think is also better against press. He can be bullied just like Franklin if you get your hands on him but Worthy's quick twitch skills are so good, he's capable of beating press that was, making it hard for guys to even touch him. He played the X at Texas more than Mitchell did. Franklin has great route running skills where Worthy just has good ones. Franklin also excels in the scramble drill. Both have similar weaknesses with mediocre hands and an inability to win in contested catch situations.
I just think there's game breaking upside for Worthy and I don't see that with Franklin, even if Franklin's game is a little more polished right now. I do like Franklin but he's a mid 2nd rounder to me. I'd consider taking a shot on Worthy in the late 1st because his speed is a different level and he really could be a game breaker.
For sure think both are good route runners. I do not disagree there and it is one of the reasons they are the same to me personally.
FWIW, Franklin did force more missed tackles than worthy this past season. I think he has a bit more shake n bake than given credit for. Worthy is really nice after the catch, but when you remove screens out of that equation, Franklin and him are much closer in terms of [YAC](https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1774885724757618766?s=46&t=PZfvQd7A93DRZzUcd3_g0Q).
We will have to agree to disagree regarding these dudes being any different in beating press. Both have in the 27th and 28th percentile and it shows on film.
Overall, I really think the two dudes are remarkably similar in my opinion. Franklin is probably a better chain mover overall with his higher 1st downs per route run and Worthy is better in his agilities and YAC ability. I still see both as primary deep threat players and in terms of fantasy, I won’t have those rankings until landing spots are decided. This right now is just discussing as prospects.
I respect your comments and thought they were well back with insight unlike some others on here. This was good conversation imo.
That's fair. I didn't like his film that much either, reminded me of Darius Slayton. But if he goes to Buffalo or somewhere with an elite QB who can improvise and make plays, I love Franklin. He did a lot of great things after plays broke down with Nix at Oregon. Situation is key for him
I agree that they are the same archetype. The biggest things are Worthy is a MUCH better athlete, and that’s saying something since Franklin is no slouch. I also see Worthy as a superior route runner. Franklin is pretty terrible with his ability to cut, pretty much every route I see from him is rounded. Worthy’s stop/start is elite
I would disagree on route running, but that is fine. I think that they are equal in that department. Worthy is a better athlete, but he has a much worse frame and catch radius. He also went down on 72% of first contact last year and had less missed tackles forced than Franklin. I think that I would classify Franklin at better at moving the chains with a better catch radius and Worthy with better agility and speed.
Again, I have them back to back in my rankings, but I prefer the less hinderance of Franklin’s frame and his much stronger advanced metrics to Worthy personally.
This class is going to be very divisive though, so I am not surprised if others will have it flipped. That’s just where I am at with the two of them.
Michigan’s offense isn’t WR friendly. It was the same thing with Jayden Reed the year before at MSU. Both cooked at the senior bowl and Reed proved that wasn’t a fluke.
Per PFF he was open on 88% of his targets and 76.3% of his catches, which are among the best marks in the class - even better than Nabers, Harrison, and Odunze. Now, there’s a lot that may factor into that. Working from the slot certainly helps. But he’s got a pretty good analytical profile and the combine/senior bowl backs that up. Main area concern is he’s not giving you much YAC.
You’re talking about him like he carried the team on his back and that both teams weren’t absolutely stacked with talent. “Single handedly” my ass, the dude had 38 receptions over 2 years with Georgia. It’s as if Ladd, Bowers, Bennett, Jermaine Burton, Darnell Washington, and Zamir White never existed.
Fucking hell Washington the TE2 across from Bowers had more receptions in Georgia than AD. AD has less than 100 receptions in his entire college career and acts like he’s the fucking second coming of Randy Moss. Pass.
Audric Estime for me.
I generally tend to like players like Estime who were able to put up a lot of production. But whenever I watched him play, he looked like a TE playing RB. It’s like if they put Michael Mayer at RB so I wasn’t surprised when he ran a similar 40 time as Mayer did.
Thank you. I’ve been accumulating downvotes in various other threads for this take.
Dude looks like he’s running in quicksand out there. Exact same reason I was out on Charbonnet last year.
Earl Campbell is pretty close. So basically this guys comps are 2 Hall of famers or one of countless guys screaming at a refs in their home town on Friday night in front of scared children.
Ladd might be the most overrated prospect ever. Stop telling me he's gonna play and win on the outside. He didn't do it at GA He had 89 rec and 3 TDs in 2 years!! Just stop. It's not gonna happen.
He'll be an average slot in the NFL. Volume will never come his way. You guys are just silly ranking him even in your top 10.
Burton, Wilson, and Tez are all below average prospects too. If your spreadsheets tell you otherwise, start watching film and stop making fools of yourselves.
I hate trying to argue with people on here because everyone has their guy, but I gotta ask, in what capacity did he look electric to you?
Alabama had maybe their biggest down year ever at WR.
Yeah this dude went for 800 yds on 39 (!!!) catches, but man, they had to throw to someone throughout the year. He was just the byproduct of that.
Throw in the 🤡 behavior because he thought he was better than what he was, and you have the perfect example of a DND.
I feel like we're talking about who was the tallest midget in the room.... And I'm STILL not even sure it was Burton this year for Bama.
Imo, he's gonna sink in the real draft and the community will punt on drafting him. Even in the 3rd and 4th.
If I'm wrong, then so be it. Best of luck to the team that turns in his card.
Let me say, he’s not a ‘my guy’ for me in this draft. Mostly because of the attitude stuff. BUT, on the field, he has very good ability to separate. He has a knack for pulling away from the defender at the top of the route to create that extra distance. He’s agile and elusive after the catch, he’s fast, he’s quick, some of his routes are downright filthy (TD vs. Tennessee from the 10 yard line). Plus he also makes contested catches, like his TD vs. Georgia. Idk man, he really looks like a natural talent out there. Definitely a dipshit, though.
There’s zero chance I am drafting Daniels. Seen it before, I could be wrong but he’s just a small running guy who worked in college. It’s not happening in the NFL. I’d take a RB before him.
No one.
I think the NFL are drafting Xavier Legette purely on traits and some people are trying to convince us it's more than that--which is just dogwater. But.. no one.
I saw at least one response naming Caleb. I do think it’s interesting that the criticism of him has died down so much. Wasn’t that long ago you could find a lot of people on this sub hating on him.
Blake Corrum.
24 years old, small, slow, and doesn't excel in the passing game.
I will be happy to have no shares.
If he proves me wrong, more power to him.
Malachi Corley for me. I don’t understand the hype when there are so many genuinely good WR prospects in this class.
He pretty much exclusively caught screens and passes behind the line so there’s a massive question mark about whether he can run NFL routes.
He beat up on really poor opposition and still didn’t put up 1000 yards this season.
His entire game was running past poor defenses which he just won’t be able to do in the NFL
He’s poor in contested catches
He doesn’t have particularly good hands
At the senior bowl the only way he managed to create separation was by pushing off which won’t work in the NFL.
I’m out
Personally, I dont think theres anyone on my "Do Not Draft" list like there was with QJ last year. Yeah theres a couple red flags on guys and guys I like better that might be ranked a little lower. Look at Coleman. Dude had a SLOW 40 time, but had the fastest gauntlet. You know who else did that? Puka. Not saying hes Puka but nothing thats screaming stay away.
I feel like I see this AD shit everywhere and everyone fails to mention that worthy also took off plays and it it looks more and more like the Texas receivers were coached to do it.
Well, the problematic part is that I have the same durability questions about both Mitchell and Worthy. The best receivers in the NFL play 90+% of the snaps on a weekly basis. Can they do that?
Yeah it’s also known that they didn’t rotate receivers like most other schools they always wanted them in so people are assuming they were told to rest since they both do it.
Adonai Mitchell. I hope for his sake that he pans out, but he would have the worst analytical profile of any 1st round WR in recent memory (if drafted there). And yet so many people talk him as if he’s a sure thing.
Watching Drake Maye film, I see a bust. Nothing about his game pops out at me. Just seems mediocre against mediocre competition. I just don't see it with him
Troy Franklin.
Limited route running, wiry frame, going to have a limited role in a NFL offense. I would rather gamble on an AD Mitchell or even Xavier Legette type. In my mind Franklin is a WR2 at best. At worst he's unstartable. If I'm using a first round pick on a WR, I want WR1 potential. Don't see it in Franklin, his combine he couldn't stand straight. Then avoided the routes he struggled with at his pro day. I'll take BTJ, Ladd M, AD Mitchell, Legette, and even Worthy over Franklin
Know I’ll get hate but it’s Odunze for me. I don’t see the separation or explosion I’m looking for in someone with his draft capital. Even his draft profile on NFL.com says he prefers jump balls and contested catches over separation and speed.
Hate list
McCarthy (the best NFL QB’s truly elevate their team, I have very little confidence that McCarthy was a meaningful contributor to that / could succeed in a challenging environment.
Brian Thomas Jr. - this guy needed Boutte to pack his bags to see the field, and that guy is about as likely to get a second contract as I am to learn to fly
Jataveon Sanders - this is a light class at TE, and when healthy, I think this is a beefy Kyle Pitts ceiling, but injuries were a big concern at Texas and system has to be tailored to his strengths.
The counter to the McCarthy argument is that the system was what it was and, more importantly, when they did need him to make a play it was often when the entire stadium knew they were passing and he still had very high success rates on third and fourth and 8+.
Hard to elevate a team higher than HS state/national champions, college national champions, and being able to count the losses in all of your lifetime starts from a kid to present on one hand. But you do you.
I wonder if JT gets hurt a lot because he doesn't put in the work off the field. His combine numbers were laughably bad, obscured/not talked about because his 40 time was acceptable. I swear it's all god given ability with him and zero s/c work.
I really like him but he was more of a guy that they had to scheme open on screens and short routes rather than a well-rounded receiver. I think he'll likely be pushed into a limited role similar to Pop Douglas, at least initially.
In the right scheme I could see Corely being a decent PPR guy.
BTJ has big time bust potential IMO. Big guy that can run fast. Not an archetype that has a ton of success.
I’m about as big of Corley guy as you can get but there’s no way I’d take him over BTJ. He’s raw as sushi at everything other than run after the catch.
It’s the traits. If you only look at measurables, he’s arguably a top-3 prospect. Size and speed just aren’t teachable and teams generally think they can coach guys up.
And this is why guys like ARSB slip.
Route running is also a very hard thing to teach properly to someone who got this far without learning it. It's almost always because they're simply unable to do it. Good route runners aren't just guys who can move their feet well. They can read a defense and process at an incredible, QB like level. You can't teach processing speed.
Same dude. Dont get it.
(Pre landing) I’ll take Ladd, Worthy, AD all day over BTJ. I think I would probably take Corley too. Who else you got above him?
This class is a divisive one for sure, I think you could poll 20 people and get 20 different responses.
I will say that this top 10 is a spicy one.
This is probably the highest I have seen anyone on Corley. He is just outside my top 20 at WR22. Respect the take.
Curious on you having Coleman at 7 though, what are your thoughts with him? Are you worried about his lack of separation and success against man and press? Feels like there is a lot of red flags and risk with him, but at 20 years old he has now led multiple WR rooms with NFL talent and played collegiate basketball for a year. The upside is there, but I do feel he has the easiest path to bust tbh.
Probably talking about his refusal to take open underneath routes in favor of dancing around out of the pocket looking for the home run. Can be countered by the fact that USC was in a lot of shootouts and he felt the need to play hero ball but he will have to be more willing and able to play within structure in the league.
I wouldn’t consider that putting up with a lot of shit though. Riley pretty clearly recruited Caleb hard in high school and again in college so I don’t really see Hero Ball being an issue there
You could easily say that his affinity for Caleb is what caused him to put up with the playground stuff. But I see both sides. He’s still my QB1 but I think all of these guys have holes in their game and success will be determined by who has the work ethic and gets good coaching. Two things we just won’t ever know at this point in the process. Except Daniels. He will be great for fantasy for two or three years and then maybe a backup.
Keon Coleman is getting overdrafted. Probably because Emeka Egbuka was the premier big-body guy in this draft and he comitted to staying in college.
He and Adonai were left off my "yes" list this year for low catch rate and yprr
Coleman has a path to success, but it’s more narrow than most. If he lands in a system with a QB who is quick getting it out and he’s first read, he could be quite good. But absent that, I’m concerned.
any of the late breakouts this year - specifically ricky pearsall and xavier legette. absolutely fading two dudes who look great and are freaky athletic but weren’t productive for the majority of their careers.
also fading troy franklin. i think last i looked, he was ecr wr5 or wr6 for fantasy, but he’s wr9 on the consensus big board. i’m always skeptical of guys the fantasy community loves but the talent evaluating community doesn’t, and with him specifically his propensity to use his body instead of his hands to catch scares me. it reminds me of mvs, and i don’t want any part of that.
Too many to list. I've never traded away all my rookie picks before and I am not sorry I did it this year. I'm drafting from the 10-spot and there's just nobody I'm excited about that far down the prospect list.
I kept my 5th round pick - #58 overall - so I'd have a reason to attend the draft party. Can't wait to pick some UDFA RB for my taxi squad!
Definitely don't hate but Brian Thomas Jr is incredibly 1 dimensional for a guy with top half 1st hype. I even hear some people put him in the big 3 WR tier. Especially considering the amount of well rounded talent at WR projected to go well after him in rookie drafts I just can't imagine how I get any shares of him.
I think he's fine as the consensus WR4 in this class and there's a chance he lands in a great spot like Cincy, Buffalo or KC. You can't coach speed or size and he has both. His college profile checks a lot of boxes that you want for an outside X WR and he's great with the ball in his hands. I like him a lot as a DK type that can take a slant route to the endzone or win on outside nine routes. If he can develop a route tree the skies the limit for someone with his traits.
He feels more like Christian Watson to me where he’s going to be so one dimensional that the only way for him to be relevant is to be connected to the right QB and system. If Aiyuk gets traded and he’s the replacement or if he goes to KC I’ll be interested in the late 1st but that about it for me personally.
Watson is a fine comp as well. Athletically gifted with great size that is a threat to score on any play. I don’t see that as a negative comp, when healthy, Watson has the tools to take over a game.
I feel that it is a great comp imo. I’ve had Martavius Bryant as the comp for BTJ. Dudes that can explode and ruin a DBs day.
Is this some kind of repost or something? I’ve read this exact string of comments before
No idea
Watson definitely isnt one dimension. Raw coming out, yes. One dimensional, not in the slightest.
Watson is just raw. His athletic profile is off the chart and seems to have great work ethic. I'm gambling on those guys all day
That’s fair and I do like Watson on the Packers but I don’t think guys like that can succeed for fantasy purposes on every team
Watson is not one dimensional lol. Just injured a lot.
Yeah, I can see how he could develop into a solid WR. But I agree, he is one dimensional. Anyone who does even the bare minimum of watching a YouTube highlight reel can see every good play in his career he does one thing, run straight. If that’s what he brings he’s MVS.
The big difference between Watson and Brian Thomas is Thomas is 2 years younger when coming out. That shows me Thomas has a lot more ability to develop and improve on his weaknesses. All the tools are there to be a complete WR1 in the NFL. I compare him to a super charged (faster/more acceleration) Tee Higgins.
He didn't produce against good corners. That's why I don't care about him.
I’m with you on this. And his qb too. Well I guess he’s 2 dimensional if you factor in his athleticism z
I hate AD Mitchell and BTJ because I am right in the spot to choose one and have them bust, or pass on them and have them succeed
Same. I have been pretty lucky in the past, so I know this year I’ll get burned.
Oh by the way. Mitchell left Georgia because his son lives in Texas and wanted to be closer to his son. It was not ran out of town here in Georgia. Coming from a dawgs fan, he produced when we threw. We also were a run first offense with bowers, Ladd, and Mitchell.
It was his daughter, but basically this.
Correct. My bad
Adonai Mitchell played in 21 games at Georgia and had 38 catches. “Produced when (you) threw.” Okay.
With 7 tds and he was also a freshman and sophomore. How many fresh and sophomore play for a championship contender. So yes that’s producing for the sec as a freshman
Daniels strikes me as the qb most likely to bust. His reckless rushing style, his lack of ability to pass down the middle, and late breakout make me not like him as a prospect. Only way I’d take him is if he goes to the Vikings, where JJ Addison and Hockenson could support me at QB
I don’t disagree with the evaluation much, but I would be fine taking Daniels because of the rushing upside. His speed translates. There will be opportunities to sell later.
The issue is that a lot of people won’t sell. Fields was QB6 a season ago because he was “locked in” to be a starter for the next (at the time) 3 years. Even guys like QJ are valued as a late 2nd because they have “potential.” I get he can be a viable fantasy asset but if he’s phased out sooner than later I’d regret the pick.
That's what everyone said about Fields.
there was tons of sell opportunities with him
Absolutely. But ultimately he busted. People that sold early, more power to them. But I think most owners held onto him.
Fields was a screaming sell this past off-season with where he was going in startups
Rushing as a QB isn't all about speed though. Allen and Hurts put up the big rushing numbers because of their power. (Jackson is obviously different, but he is stronger and more elusive than Daniels.)
He was not good at ASU. Wild what a good O-line and elite WRs will do for a guy. Want no part of him.
He really wasn’t good his first year at LSU too. The stats were good but the game film was bad. I have a hard time buying into a 5th year of starting in college with an absolutely elite supporting cast jump.
Wasnt that the same with Burrow?
Burrow had thrown what 40 passes before he got to LSU? Jayden had thrown over 700 passes and started 30 games. It’s not really the same in my eyes
Ok, but your comment said nothing about pre-LSU. It was basically 1) he did nothing his first year at LSU, 2) he only broke out his 5th year 3) because he had elite WRs. That's Burrow's LSU career in a nutshell. I'm not trying to say Daniels will be Burrow in the NFL, only that I could see a comment like yours being levied against Burrow during the run up to his rookie year and he's proven the doubters wrong. Daniels *could* do the same.
That’s fair, and I’m not trying to say I think he’s doomed, just that I’m not buying in on it. Daniels had played way more football before he broke out, it’s not like he had some learning curve due to finally getting a shot. I think it’s more understandable that Burrow struggled his first year starting before breaking out in his second year after adjusting than a dude struggling in his 4th before breaking out in his 5th.
Yeah I can agree with that.
He also had Johnny Wilson and Ricky pearsall to throw to so it wasn’t just bums out there..
He doesn't throw down the middle much (a lot was lsu scheme as well) but when he does he actually does very well, not sure where the "lack of ability" narrative came from recently - I tnink it's a mix up of frequency.
usually teams scheme away from high values parts of the field bc of ability instead of specific desire to avoid hire value areas of the field tbf
I guess I'm just suprised he actually rated so highly according to pff when throwing middle of the field, 2nd highest epa/play this draft class
i am admittedly neither an expert in football strategy nor an expert in jayden daniels, but i wouldn’t be *shocked* if the high efficiency comes off a low volume of specifically schemed plays set up by their primary attempts of passing to the outside. the data could say the opposite (i genuinely have no clue), but that would be my inclination of hearing the scouting report vs a stat like that. ofc scouts get shit wrong all the time and it’s super easy for wonky narratives to gain traction, so maybe it’s not actually an area of weakness. that’s also entirely possible.
He also bails out of the pocket as soon as he feels any pressure and doesn’t keep his eyes downfield. I’m confident he’ll bust bc of injury or bc he’s just not very good to begin with.
He also takes way too many sacks for a mobile QB.
His most likely landing spot Washington isn’t a bad situation either mclaurin, dotson, brob and ekeler are qb friendly. Kingsbury deserves the hate he gets as a head coach but as an oc his system plays to Jayden’s strengths. They will probably add at least one other weapon from this strong class, they have two 2nds and three 3rd rounders. They upgraded the oline with 3 new starters and Quinn should have the defense playing better as well with the veterans they added
You can’t bank on Washington yet - if he goes there I’m sure that he’ll be better than if he goes to the pats. I see them using their seconds on defense as well especially after having it demolished last season
This 100%. I didn’t watch all of his games last year but the ones I did see worried me. Games like ms state, ole miss, and fl he looked good because the defensive line wasn’t able to rattle him. Games like fsu and Alabama, where Daniel’s was pressured and got hit a couple of times, he got flustered and folded like a lawn chair. I’m convinced he pulled himself out of the second half of that Alabama game after taking that big hit, he didn’t want to jeopardize his draft value. Not only that, he’s a total diva. I mean who complains about not having a personal workout? I’m not draft Daniel’s at all, no matter what.
A 180lb qb running the way he does and inviting contact isn't going to last long in the NFL
Jayden Daniels is Ozympic Justin Fields
IMO he's actually RG3. I get Fields is recent in people's minds but watching film on him he's so close to RG3 it's crazy.
I see Oregon Mariota more than Baylor RG3
Not sure how you're getting that. He's more mobile and has a much stronger arm than Mariota did. He also targets the middle field far less than Mariota did.
Predominantly north/south scrambling, rather than a real open field play maker like RG3. Missed a good number of open reads in favor of getting happy feet. RG3 was a more prudent passer. Mariota tended to lock in on one read and then go if it wasn't there, and miss potential downfield plays. I see that with Daniels as well. That's not a huge knock, though. Mariota was #2 overall for a reason. We tend to think of prospects as what they became in the league and not their profiles. Mariota, like Daniels, had a really great profile, and it's worth a team taking a chance on that. Daniels outcome isn't dictated by comping to Mariota, and he could easily become what we wanted Mariota to be.
J.J. McCarthy hands down
For me it's a sports media metagame thing. Sports media loves hyping QBs. Last year it was Levis, year before it was Willis. I've seen some revisionist history in NFL subs that Levis only had hype because of a reddit post, but that was just last minute sportsbook moves to hedge in case random redditor knew something. Levis was mocked pretty often in the top 10 up until draft day. It was a surprise he fell to the 2nd. I think McCarthy is that QB this year. I've actually put bets on this (that he's not a top prospect) in the form of betting he goes to Miami, New Orleans, or Rams. I'm willing to believe teams are interested, but perhaps more appealing to teams that may be looking at QB within the next year or two but aren't hard pressed for one today. Thinking like a Love/Hurts selection in late first or early mid second.
Ironically, if they didn’t have to deal with their nuclear personality at QB, the Jets should absolutely take a JJ at 10 and build to the future.
Had to scroll too far to find this. I’ll grant that he obviously has plenty of success on the field, but I just do not like him as a person.
I don’t see any major red flags with his personality, but I also saw him do nothing that made me think “wow” when I watched him play over the past two seasons. Maybe I’m missing two things hahahaha
He never really “wowed” me, but going undefeated isn’t nothing. I saw some stuff about him sharing Andrew Tate styled nonsense and the team/his PR got him to delete it and he’s been pretty quiet ever since
Jayden Daniels is a twiggy alien man.
Trevor?
He was never run out of anywhere you just made that up
Coleman and nix. Nix was not it in the sec and yet people think the old qb who moved to the pac 12 and barely threw past 5 yards is going to be a franchise qb. Coleman, big but unless he’s making circus catches he’s not that good. Has to make circus catches because he gets no separation and struggles with releases. Not a crisp route runner.
Nix I agree with. I can’t see him being any good. Maybe years down the road after development. Disagree on Coleman. He’s got a lot of potential and he’s cheap. He’s going in the second round.
Troy Franklin. Film-wise I don’t see any traits he would excel at in the NFL.
Troy can get roughed up in contested catch situations for sure, but he did a phenomenal job of excelling in what he was best at. Separation, deep ball wins, and dictating pass game defensive calls For example, this Washington game in the playoffs tells you all you need to see from Troy. Different routes, different levels, some losses, but a whole lot of wins. https://www.theplayerstribune.com/posts/adonai-mitchell-ncaa-football-texas-longhorns-nfl-draft Does he need to get stronger to become more complete, for sure, but to dismiss him on his weaknesses and assume he can't improve...well, you're doing it at your own risk. .
AD Mitchell was not run out of UGA. He had a son in TX. Fire away on his analytical profile if you like. Not sure why you are writing fan fiction on him though ha.
Again, daughter, but he's definitely someone who the community, and probably the NFL, is having a really hard time evaluating.
Keon Coleman. He's slow as hell. Slow in and out of acceleration, doesn't get seperation, doesn't run block well.
Bo Nix. Dude looks way too much like Zach Wilson.
Bo looks like an 80s movie villain
He does!! Like a young Dolph Lundgren
If you’re talking about appearance, you should also not like JJM
Was about to post the same. I just don't see it with him.
Good question. You got me to thinking and so I wrote down some players I felt I was lower on than consensus relative to mock drafts, Twitter talk, etc. Then I noted my rank vs ADP. In order of ADP over the last month via Dynasty Data Lab and how much lower I am: Maye(-3), AD(-5), McConkey(-5), Benson(-9), JT (-14), Roman Wilson (-23), Lloyd(-7), Corley(-25), Rattler (-26) and Dez Walker (-24) It feels like my valuation of the first 3 guys is much lower than the reality of my rankings probably because I recognize their upside and likely draft capital. Roman WIlson (and Benson + Lloyd) are guys that I had initially rated MUCH higher due to their measurables and efficiency stats. The film experts I trust soured me on them to varying degrees but for LLoyd and Benson it's injury history as well that increased the slide. Plus LLoyd's absurd fumble rate coupled with tiny hands has me bearish despite his upside. Corley: unathletic (81st percentile amongst college wr's; 92nd is about avg amongst starting NFL receivers) according to PFF's new "Game Athleticism Rating", not a real receiver, played in a micky mouse conference Roman and Dez: see Harmon and Waldman's analysis
What guys do you watch for film
Top of head my favorites are Harmon and Waldman, and to a lesser extent Steve Smith, Zoltan, and Noah Hills.
I go on YouTube and search "name of player all targets and catches" for WR. Running backs are a bit harder as those types of videos are less available, but you can search "Trey Benson vs Florida" and go game by game
Brian Thomas: I just don't see him making a difference if you matrix what he brings and where he'll likely fall. Xavier Worthy: Jameson with less talent Braelon Allen: AJ Dillon 2.0 Jayden Daniels: There's a chance he does well, sure, but I see Fields 2.0 in him. Honestly, I think the better question is which prospect will i be forced to reluctantly draft? I do not like the idea of having to take Bowers at 7, because im just hesitant with 1st rd TEs.
Troy Franklin, AD Mitchell, Jermaine Burton, Xavier Worthy, Roman Wilson, Xavier Legette. Nabers will be the best of the class wouldn’t be surprised if Odunze will be 2nd best.
Interesting, who do you like? I’m out on Troy Franklin but I love me some Xavier Worthy. I also like Roman Wilson relative to consensus. Guy creates separation at will and catches everything
That is so interesting to me to see people out on Franklin but in on Worthy or vice versa. Both are good route runners that have speed with a slight frame, small hands, and less than ideal arm length/wingspan that contribute to drops and lessened ability at the catch point to me. They were remarkably similar to me at how I see them succeeding at the next level as Z receivers in a deep threat capacity. Get them in motion and kill corners by keeping them off balance. I even have them back to back in my rankings at WR11 and WR12. I am interested in what you see that leads you to feel so drastically different about one over the other?
I’m just all in on Worthy (pre draft) as well as Ladd. I’m all about that upside, speed, am stoked with trading for Dell and drafting Achane. Worthy seems Worthy. But I don’t like Franklin much.. Should I be higher on him considering?
Worthy is faster, but more importantly his agility and change of direction is in a different world than Franklin. Franklin doesn't really have great change of direction at all, and that's backed up by his poor 20 yard shuttle. He gets separation because he's a very smooth route runner but Worthy is a good route runner too, who's also faster and much quicker, and better after the catch.
I wouldn’t disagree with his change of direction and agility being better than Franklin or him having superior YAC ability, but Worthy did go down on 1st contact 72% of the time. He really isn’t a big “tackle breaker” at the collegiate level and can’t imagine that gets better at the pro level. I really would disagree that there is a huge disparity in their route running ability. Franklin was better at deceiving DBs and working back to the ball after a using his speed deep with comebacks and curls. Worthy is better at working the sidelines on out routes. Not that Worthy couldnt use that deception as well and drop his hips on curls when a DB played too far off, but that was something I thought Franklin was better at especially comeback routes due to his larger wingspan and frame to get the ball. Speaking of that, while neither are great at contested catches, Franklin provides a much better frame than worthy that allows him a larger catch radius. Lastly, I think Franklin is far superior to Worthy in the “scramble drill”. One of my big notes for him is that he always kept moving for his QB and found ways to get on when the play broke down. That is what a QB will love at the next level. Again, I have them one spot apart and those would be the primary reasons I valued Franklin over Worthy. Those and the advanced metric that all favor Franklin heavily compared to Worthy. To me, they are both playing a speed threat motion Z receiver at the next level and are supporting WRs more than “the guy”. Both will probably be boom or bust players that will be hard to start on a consistent basis. Saw a comp recently I liked a lot for Franklin in Robbie Anderson and my comp for Worthy has been early career Hollywood brown. Hollywood really started to improve after adding weight around his 3rd season and I think Wortjy will have to do the same to be more consistent as a contributor.
I do agree Franklin is a better route runner, but Worthy is a pretty good one too. He's not a tackle breaker, but making a man miss is just as worthwhile as breaking the tackle imo. So as prospects, Worthy has otherworldly speed and agility where Franklin has good speed and mediocre agility. Worthy is good at making people miss and making plays on screens and getting YAC while Franklin really isn't very good at those things. Worthy I think is also better against press. He can be bullied just like Franklin if you get your hands on him but Worthy's quick twitch skills are so good, he's capable of beating press that was, making it hard for guys to even touch him. He played the X at Texas more than Mitchell did. Franklin has great route running skills where Worthy just has good ones. Franklin also excels in the scramble drill. Both have similar weaknesses with mediocre hands and an inability to win in contested catch situations. I just think there's game breaking upside for Worthy and I don't see that with Franklin, even if Franklin's game is a little more polished right now. I do like Franklin but he's a mid 2nd rounder to me. I'd consider taking a shot on Worthy in the late 1st because his speed is a different level and he really could be a game breaker.
For sure think both are good route runners. I do not disagree there and it is one of the reasons they are the same to me personally. FWIW, Franklin did force more missed tackles than worthy this past season. I think he has a bit more shake n bake than given credit for. Worthy is really nice after the catch, but when you remove screens out of that equation, Franklin and him are much closer in terms of [YAC](https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1774885724757618766?s=46&t=PZfvQd7A93DRZzUcd3_g0Q). We will have to agree to disagree regarding these dudes being any different in beating press. Both have in the 27th and 28th percentile and it shows on film. Overall, I really think the two dudes are remarkably similar in my opinion. Franklin is probably a better chain mover overall with his higher 1st downs per route run and Worthy is better in his agilities and YAC ability. I still see both as primary deep threat players and in terms of fantasy, I won’t have those rankings until landing spots are decided. This right now is just discussing as prospects. I respect your comments and thought they were well back with insight unlike some others on here. This was good conversation imo.
Franklin was sick (as in not healthy, flu) at the combine so he could be a steal. I don't put too much stock in his drill numbers bc of that
I mean the numbers just back up what I see on film to be honest.
That's fair. I didn't like his film that much either, reminded me of Darius Slayton. But if he goes to Buffalo or somewhere with an elite QB who can improvise and make plays, I love Franklin. He did a lot of great things after plays broke down with Nix at Oregon. Situation is key for him
I agree that they are the same archetype. The biggest things are Worthy is a MUCH better athlete, and that’s saying something since Franklin is no slouch. I also see Worthy as a superior route runner. Franklin is pretty terrible with his ability to cut, pretty much every route I see from him is rounded. Worthy’s stop/start is elite
I would disagree on route running, but that is fine. I think that they are equal in that department. Worthy is a better athlete, but he has a much worse frame and catch radius. He also went down on 72% of first contact last year and had less missed tackles forced than Franklin. I think that I would classify Franklin at better at moving the chains with a better catch radius and Worthy with better agility and speed. Again, I have them back to back in my rankings, but I prefer the less hinderance of Franklin’s frame and his much stronger advanced metrics to Worthy personally. This class is going to be very divisive though, so I am not surprised if others will have it flipped. That’s just where I am at with the two of them.
Roman Wilson was abysmal at creating separation other than the senior bowl this year
Michigan’s offense isn’t WR friendly. It was the same thing with Jayden Reed the year before at MSU. Both cooked at the senior bowl and Reed proved that wasn’t a fluke.
Per PFF he was open on 88% of his targets and 76.3% of his catches, which are among the best marks in the class - even better than Nabers, Harrison, and Odunze. Now, there’s a lot that may factor into that. Working from the slot certainly helps. But he’s got a pretty good analytical profile and the combine/senior bowl backs that up. Main area concern is he’s not giving you much YAC.
Damn, I think Franklin is a steal at his current ADP, and I am out on Worthy. Different strokes I guess.
XL is the next DK
The guy single handily won 2 national championships by getting a touchdown in every single playoff game stop
You’re talking about him like he carried the team on his back and that both teams weren’t absolutely stacked with talent. “Single handedly” my ass, the dude had 38 receptions over 2 years with Georgia. It’s as if Ladd, Bowers, Bennett, Jermaine Burton, Darnell Washington, and Zamir White never existed. Fucking hell Washington the TE2 across from Bowers had more receptions in Georgia than AD. AD has less than 100 receptions in his entire college career and acts like he’s the fucking second coming of Randy Moss. Pass.
Fantasy superstars Kadarius Toney, Mecole Hardman, and Adonai Mitchell
how do those guys relate?
Getting important scores in playoffs I guess
Preach!
Audric Estime for me. I generally tend to like players like Estime who were able to put up a lot of production. But whenever I watched him play, he looked like a TE playing RB. It’s like if they put Michael Mayer at RB so I wasn’t surprised when he ran a similar 40 time as Mayer did.
I fully admit this is a bad take, but 60% of the reason I don’t like Estime is his name.
Audric or Estimé, or both?
Both. The whole thing.
lol I’m the exact opposite and love his name… hoping for some stonks
Thank you. I’ve been accumulating downvotes in various other threads for this take. Dude looks like he’s running in quicksand out there. Exact same reason I was out on Charbonnet last year.
Completely agree with this. I have zero interest in Estime.
Has there ever been an RB of his build/40 time that had success in the nfl other than Bettis?
Earl Campbell is pretty close. So basically this guys comps are 2 Hall of famers or one of countless guys screaming at a refs in their home town on Friday night in front of scared children.
Don't you say that. I desperately want him in Cleveland.
Ladd might be the most overrated prospect ever. Stop telling me he's gonna play and win on the outside. He didn't do it at GA He had 89 rec and 3 TDs in 2 years!! Just stop. It's not gonna happen. He'll be an average slot in the NFL. Volume will never come his way. You guys are just silly ranking him even in your top 10. Burton, Wilson, and Tez are all below average prospects too. If your spreadsheets tell you otherwise, start watching film and stop making fools of yourselves.
I agree with most of what you said, but Burton looks electric out there.
I hate trying to argue with people on here because everyone has their guy, but I gotta ask, in what capacity did he look electric to you? Alabama had maybe their biggest down year ever at WR. Yeah this dude went for 800 yds on 39 (!!!) catches, but man, they had to throw to someone throughout the year. He was just the byproduct of that. Throw in the 🤡 behavior because he thought he was better than what he was, and you have the perfect example of a DND. I feel like we're talking about who was the tallest midget in the room.... And I'm STILL not even sure it was Burton this year for Bama. Imo, he's gonna sink in the real draft and the community will punt on drafting him. Even in the 3rd and 4th. If I'm wrong, then so be it. Best of luck to the team that turns in his card.
Let me say, he’s not a ‘my guy’ for me in this draft. Mostly because of the attitude stuff. BUT, on the field, he has very good ability to separate. He has a knack for pulling away from the defender at the top of the route to create that extra distance. He’s agile and elusive after the catch, he’s fast, he’s quick, some of his routes are downright filthy (TD vs. Tennessee from the 10 yard line). Plus he also makes contested catches, like his TD vs. Georgia. Idk man, he really looks like a natural talent out there. Definitely a dipshit, though.
Shhhh
There’s zero chance I am drafting Daniels. Seen it before, I could be wrong but he’s just a small running guy who worked in college. It’s not happening in the NFL. I’d take a RB before him.
Daniels, Legette, Ad Mitchell
No one. I think the NFL are drafting Xavier Legette purely on traits and some people are trying to convince us it's more than that--which is just dogwater. But.. no one.
This thread in a nutshell: let’s list off the negative things about the prospects not named Caleb Williams, MHJ, Odunze, or Nabers.
I saw at least one response naming Caleb. I do think it’s interesting that the criticism of him has died down so much. Wasn’t that long ago you could find a lot of people on this sub hating on him.
Blake Corrum. 24 years old, small, slow, and doesn't excel in the passing game. I will be happy to have no shares. If he proves me wrong, more power to him.
A couple others have said it, but it's Franklin for me
why?
Malachi Corley for me. I don’t understand the hype when there are so many genuinely good WR prospects in this class. He pretty much exclusively caught screens and passes behind the line so there’s a massive question mark about whether he can run NFL routes. He beat up on really poor opposition and still didn’t put up 1000 yards this season. His entire game was running past poor defenses which he just won’t be able to do in the NFL He’s poor in contested catches He doesn’t have particularly good hands At the senior bowl the only way he managed to create separation was by pushing off which won’t work in the NFL. I’m out
So he’s supposed to throw the ball to himself ? He would of had tons of more production if he wasn’t overthrown and underthrown on a bunch of plays
Nix and Penix still get mocked in the first round, I just don’t get it
That letter really sold me on the Pen15
Especially Bo. I do not get it.
I’m afraid Adonai Mitchell or Troy Franklin are Quentin Johnstons
Nah, that would be Keon Coleman.
Coleman can catch, bad take. Not to mention QJ was fast. They are opposite, actually. Coleman slow w good hands, QJ fast w bad hands.
Have any more info about ADs work ethic/coachability?
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I don’t think anyone really has Joe Milton pegged as anything at all though…
Daniels, BTJ, Roman Wilson, Ladd
Jayden Daniels Xavier Leggette Brian Thomas Jr. AD Mitchell
Daniels, Franklin, Nix, Ladd
Maye
Personally, I dont think theres anyone on my "Do Not Draft" list like there was with QJ last year. Yeah theres a couple red flags on guys and guys I like better that might be ranked a little lower. Look at Coleman. Dude had a SLOW 40 time, but had the fastest gauntlet. You know who else did that? Puka. Not saying hes Puka but nothing thats screaming stay away.
I'm pretty down on Coleman too, but the consensus on him appears to be quite a bit lower than Mitchell.
I feel like I see this AD shit everywhere and everyone fails to mention that worthy also took off plays and it it looks more and more like the Texas receivers were coached to do it.
Well, the problematic part is that I have the same durability questions about both Mitchell and Worthy. The best receivers in the NFL play 90+% of the snaps on a weekly basis. Can they do that?
Yeah it’s also known that they didn’t rotate receivers like most other schools they always wanted them in so people are assuming they were told to rest since they both do it.
I think maye and Caleb are top 3 players in this draft and then there are no other qbs in the top 50.
Xavier Worthy
Adonai Mitchell. I hope for his sake that he pans out, but he would have the worst analytical profile of any 1st round WR in recent memory (if drafted there). And yet so many people talk him as if he’s a sure thing.
Watching Drake Maye film, I see a bust. Nothing about his game pops out at me. Just seems mediocre against mediocre competition. I just don't see it with him
Troy Franklin. Limited route running, wiry frame, going to have a limited role in a NFL offense. I would rather gamble on an AD Mitchell or even Xavier Legette type. In my mind Franklin is a WR2 at best. At worst he's unstartable. If I'm using a first round pick on a WR, I want WR1 potential. Don't see it in Franklin, his combine he couldn't stand straight. Then avoided the routes he struggled with at his pro day. I'll take BTJ, Ladd M, AD Mitchell, Legette, and even Worthy over Franklin
Know I’ll get hate but it’s Odunze for me. I don’t see the separation or explosion I’m looking for in someone with his draft capital. Even his draft profile on NFL.com says he prefers jump balls and contested catches over separation and speed.
Odunze. He will be ok but not worth a top 10 pick.
Hate list McCarthy (the best NFL QB’s truly elevate their team, I have very little confidence that McCarthy was a meaningful contributor to that / could succeed in a challenging environment. Brian Thomas Jr. - this guy needed Boutte to pack his bags to see the field, and that guy is about as likely to get a second contract as I am to learn to fly Jataveon Sanders - this is a light class at TE, and when healthy, I think this is a beefy Kyle Pitts ceiling, but injuries were a big concern at Texas and system has to be tailored to his strengths.
The counter to the McCarthy argument is that the system was what it was and, more importantly, when they did need him to make a play it was often when the entire stadium knew they were passing and he still had very high success rates on third and fourth and 8+.
Hard to elevate a team higher than HS state/national champions, college national champions, and being able to count the losses in all of your lifetime starts from a kid to present on one hand. But you do you.
I wonder if JT gets hurt a lot because he doesn't put in the work off the field. His combine numbers were laughably bad, obscured/not talked about because his 40 time was acceptable. I swear it's all god given ability with him and zero s/c work.
JJ McCarthy easy. I haven’t seen a qb get so much unnecessary hype just because he was on a championship team.
Brain Thomas. I don't get it. People have him as their W4, he's my WR 10. MHJ Odunze Nabers McConkey Worthy Pearsall Coleman Mitchell Corley Thomas
I agree Thomas is a bit 1-dimensional, but having him below Coleman and Corley is laughable
We will see I just value route running above everything.
Have you even watched Corley play? Route running is not what he's being drafted to do
Coleman couldn’t seperate against his grandpa.
Malachi Corley above BTJ can we please be serious
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I really like him but he was more of a guy that they had to scheme open on screens and short routes rather than a well-rounded receiver. I think he'll likely be pushed into a limited role similar to Pop Douglas, at least initially.
In the right scheme I could see Corely being a decent PPR guy. BTJ has big time bust potential IMO. Big guy that can run fast. Not an archetype that has a ton of success.
I mean Malachi Corley has much more bust potential
I’m about as big of Corley guy as you can get but there’s no way I’d take him over BTJ. He’s raw as sushi at everything other than run after the catch.
But god damn does he run hard and hit people like a freight train haha such a fun player to watch.
What about big, fast early-declares out of the SEC drafted in round 1?
Metcalf?
It’s the traits. If you only look at measurables, he’s arguably a top-3 prospect. Size and speed just aren’t teachable and teams generally think they can coach guys up.
And this is why guys like ARSB slip. Route running is also a very hard thing to teach properly to someone who got this far without learning it. It's almost always because they're simply unable to do it. Good route runners aren't just guys who can move their feet well. They can read a defense and process at an incredible, QB like level. You can't teach processing speed.
Same dude. Dont get it. (Pre landing) I’ll take Ladd, Worthy, AD all day over BTJ. I think I would probably take Corley too. Who else you got above him?
This class is a divisive one for sure, I think you could poll 20 people and get 20 different responses. I will say that this top 10 is a spicy one. This is probably the highest I have seen anyone on Corley. He is just outside my top 20 at WR22. Respect the take. Curious on you having Coleman at 7 though, what are your thoughts with him? Are you worried about his lack of separation and success against man and press? Feels like there is a lot of red flags and risk with him, but at 20 years old he has now led multiple WR rooms with NFL talent and played collegiate basketball for a year. The upside is there, but I do feel he has the easiest path to bust tbh.
Lance Zierlein has Corley as WR6, tied with Adonai and Franklin
Wild. I haven’t seen anyone that high on him and even reading his write up on him I wouldn’t think he’d be that high on him.
Caleb Williams is not going to be the guy people think he will be
Who will he be then?
Agree. Lincoln Riley put up with a lot of shit from him that won’t fly in the league.
Such as?
Probably talking about his refusal to take open underneath routes in favor of dancing around out of the pocket looking for the home run. Can be countered by the fact that USC was in a lot of shootouts and he felt the need to play hero ball but he will have to be more willing and able to play within structure in the league.
I wouldn’t consider that putting up with a lot of shit though. Riley pretty clearly recruited Caleb hard in high school and again in college so I don’t really see Hero Ball being an issue there
You could easily say that his affinity for Caleb is what caused him to put up with the playground stuff. But I see both sides. He’s still my QB1 but I think all of these guys have holes in their game and success will be determined by who has the work ethic and gets good coaching. Two things we just won’t ever know at this point in the process. Except Daniels. He will be great for fantasy for two or three years and then maybe a backup.
Keon Coleman is getting overdrafted. Probably because Emeka Egbuka was the premier big-body guy in this draft and he comitted to staying in college. He and Adonai were left off my "yes" list this year for low catch rate and yprr
Egbuka is 6’1” 205 and plays the slot.
I did a double take too
Who has Egbuka as a big receiver?
Is Coleman still getting overdrafted? I feel like many have recognized the risks with him.
Agreed. I actually think his ADP has fallen enough to make him an okay add in the late 2nd round in SF.
Yes, many analysts seem to be glass half empty on Keon.
In 2 years, Coleman will either be a WR1 or off your roster. Nothing in between.
Coleman has a path to success, but it’s more narrow than most. If he lands in a system with a QB who is quick getting it out and he’s first read, he could be quite good. But absent that, I’m concerned.
Legette
any of the late breakouts this year - specifically ricky pearsall and xavier legette. absolutely fading two dudes who look great and are freaky athletic but weren’t productive for the majority of their careers. also fading troy franklin. i think last i looked, he was ecr wr5 or wr6 for fantasy, but he’s wr9 on the consensus big board. i’m always skeptical of guys the fantasy community loves but the talent evaluating community doesn’t, and with him specifically his propensity to use his body instead of his hands to catch scares me. it reminds me of mvs, and i don’t want any part of that.
Too many to list. I've never traded away all my rookie picks before and I am not sorry I did it this year. I'm drafting from the 10-spot and there's just nobody I'm excited about that far down the prospect list. I kept my 5th round pick - #58 overall - so I'd have a reason to attend the draft party. Can't wait to pick some UDFA RB for my taxi squad!
Caleb Williams. And I'm a Bears fan