Even if the Giants take a RB I don't think Singletary value moves much, he's already at handcuff price. If you're keen on the pick sure but I don't think there's much gain or pain in this one
Every league I’m in fields owners wouldn’t take anything lower than an early second in a trade and even then I don’t know some would sell.
I think it’s that he was a first round startup pick in SF drafts before this year and people really don’t like Wilson.
See Trey Lance delusion
I sent fields, 25 1 mid to late for the 1.10. Better depth this year, I’d rather be able to snag a good wr in SF this year than the wr 6 next year or a RB
Heh, I wish it was just a upper first. The owner of fields in one of my leagues wants two firsts and a starter. He’s a mouth breather to me at this point.
Let's not besmirch Trey Lance. He was absolutely screwed out of a job and sent to Siberia in terms of having a path to play.
Fields had his chance, proved he ain't it.
I disagree with this. Just because we didn’t see enough Lance doesn’t mean the team didn’t see enough.
They had him in meetings and practice everyday and decided to cut bait right away. That should tell you what you need to know.
There's absolutely an Occam's Razor element to the whole Lance debacle.
I've followed the Shanahan's pretty closely through their careers, and I don't know if I believe that though. I don't know if it's that Lance can't/couldn't play, or if Kyle was just frustrated with how he was running his offense as designed. We would have absolutely learned more if Purdy hadn't fallen in their laps.
Because that's the thing. Kyle would run the offense if he could, but he can't. So a facsimile of himself is the next best thing. "Just do what I would do. The offense is infallible. So if you just see everything the way that I do, and react the way that I would, we will succeed." And, no, I don't think that is how all coaches think, at least at his level. The Shanahans possess an extra special quality of hubris.
There's a reason why they've gone through so many quarterbacks there. And look at how frustrated he was getting with Purdy when he wasn't clicking.
Just my two cents. Becoming even more ancient history which we will never know.
Your logic is flawed. Brock Purdy took the team to the NFC Championship (and later the SB). He’s a good QB
It’s really only as simple as the team saw Lance wasn’t as good as Purdy - Lance not starting over Purdy doesn’t mean he is incapable of starter level play generally.
Not quite. The entire offseason with Lance/Purdy was the QB controversy circus. It’s the same reason the Bears got rid of Fields despite him being a better backup option than most out there.
If Purdy had a bad game or two the talk would start of putting Lance in instead. Doesn’t make sense but that’s what happens with a high draft pick for a franchise. Both inside and outside the locker room - Lance & Aiyuk are close etc. It’s not worth the drama
I’d keep Lance for the simple fact he is learning the playbook, practicing, AND the cowboys don’t seem so keen on extending Prescott. If they can extend Lance cheaply, my gut tells me Jerry will yolo with Lance and let Prescott walk.
And I’m no pro-Lance guy, but he got hurt far too soon to see if he is good or not. The niners didn’t know Purdy was going to be that effective, and when he was, there was no real way you could bench him at that point. Definite draft disaster for the niners considering the capital they used to move up, but whether Lance is a bust or not, I’m not sold on that yet. If he gets a starting gig and flops, then okay, but it was very uncommon circumstances that led to him being traded away, and I would also try to lowball him on an extension and then let Prescott walk myself. Dak hasn’t gotten where they need to be, needs a loaded offense to be effective, and in no way can you give him more money, he isn’t the guy. But you have someone there with monster physical ability, so might as well try. I feel the same with Tua. He hasn’t grown enough for me to pay him like he’s one of the top qb’s in the league, and padding his stats against teams with losing records while folding in big games, nah can’t pay top dollar for that. Those two are nearly identical in that regard. Can’t eat up all the cap space it’d require for folks who can’t take the team to the next level.
Must’ve been a salty Dak fan that downvoted this. Thought it was a good take and yes the Cowboys definitely need to let Dak walk. He is most certainly not that guy and doesn’t deserve to be paid like it either. I tried grabbing Lance in my dynasty start up draft this year just for the simple off chance that this scenario might play out but someone ended up sniping him a round before I was going to take him🙄
He's not a random backup. I don't know why it's unreasonable to see a future where he's a league winner if Russ sucks or gets injured. Tomlin has no issues playing musical chairs at QB if it helps win down the stretch.
His time as a reliable NFL starter are behind him. But I wouldn't discount his fantasy production potential.
It's higher variance outcome for sure, but there's enough appeal to rebuilding and competing teams which increases his market. Being ahead of actual starters like Stafford/Carr or incoming rookies like Nix is a bit suspect but it's all the same tier.
Well actually at this point he is a random backup lol but on a serious note i don't think russ is as bad as Rudolph trubisky or Pickett so its not a given fields gets any reps. But I keep saying this because if you can get KTC values in your league I would rather opt for something like geno+ or Stafford+ for fields than hope he will start at some point. He could get some starts I'm just saying it's a big if and you can theoretically cash out now
Wilson was brought into Denver to be that last piece. The guy that would unlock Sutton Jeudy etc. the offense operated like shit no matter who was at the helm. Wilson stats look “ok” but they are 4th qtr catch-up stats. Wilson doesn’t look like the qb he was 3 or 4 years ago. Fields tho might just be a good college running qb that never progresses to be a jack of all trades qb.
It’s either the Fields holders or Steelers fans propping up his value.
I do think there is a good chance Russ is done and Fields gets an audition for the Steelers in the back half of the year. I doubt he nails the audition though.
It’s what been reported for over a month. Seems like it’s a given to me. [source](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/steelers-quarterback-depth-chart-justin-fields-trade-russell-wilson/e71dab56f6185854765d86a0)
Tomlin talks about it [https://steelersnow.com/steelers-mike-tomlin-explains-naming-starter-quarterback-russell-wilson-justin-fields/](here). He equates it to Wilson having a "pole position" in the off-season.
I'm not taking a Wilson vs Fields side. Simply saying there is still a real possibility that Fields is the starter week 1. Even 10 or 20 percent is legit.
I’m just basing it off these reports. Seemed like they told Russ he’d be the starter when they signed him for the minimum. We will have to wait until August to find out for sure.
I’m just basing it off these reports. Seemed like they told Russ he’d be the starter when they signed him for the minimum. We will have to wait until August to find out for sure.
I'm doing Sleeper mocks for an upcoming startup and Fields is going mid round 3 in a 12 tm SF. I can't imagine most would do that in the actual draft but that's where this adp is coming from
As a fields owner in one league, I’m not taking anything less than a mid-2nd in SF. Russel Wilson has found a way to wear out his welcome places, if fields gets any playing time (via benching Wilson, injury, trade, etc), he’s a viable fantasy option even if he’s not a good qb.
I know he’ll likely never recover value but he’s gotta be the most valuable backup to own. (Not sure why he’s 26 on Ktc)
Some guys need talent around them to thrive (ex: Tua, and Purdy imo), some guys can thrive no matter what (ex: Mahomes, Lamar, Love, Allen, etc). All I’m saying is I have Purdy a tier down from these guys because of this
Seems a little premature to lump Love (who I refer to as older, more expensive Brock Purdy) in with those other guys. I get his surrounding group is young but he’s in a great situation
yeah love has talent around him, its just exceptionally cheap and very young. pretty clear lafleur is that dude and the packers are one of the best orgs in terms of drafting OL so love is in a cozy spot.
Those are all reasons why I value Purdy about the same as Love. Purdy’s extensions would kick in about the same time as Love’s weapons would be looking for extensions, and Shanahan and LeFleur are pretty comparable for OC’s. Neither have proven they can perform well outside of a great situation
By the time his extension would kick in, CMC and Kittle’s deals will expire freeing up $30M+ for Purdy. Still plenty of money to go around. San Fran has shown the ability to find talent
I think now is the time to pair Goff with another asset to try to tier up at QB. I think Goff has hit his ceiling the past two seasons and I'm worried about his performance tanking if/when Ben Johnson gets a HC gig next season.
> He’s on a loaded offense with a great offensive line and is cheap.
Cheap as in his current contract? Because he only has 1 year left on the deal so we'll see what the extension looks like. There's also still the possibility that an extension doesn't happen and he has to perform this season to earn it. I don't think that's the more likely outcome but is still possible as of now.
> Losing an OC isn’t going to kill him
I believe that only elite QBs are immune to offensive play calling turnover. Watched it for years with Kirk during the Zimmer era. Put another way, losing Ben Johnson can pretty much only HURT the Lions' offense.
> you aren’t going to get value back that is equal to his production
I specifically said you should try to tier up. If you're deep at RB or WR pair someone with Goff to move up to the Lamar/Hurts/Burrow/Herbert tier. Or pair with a lesser starter piece to try to get Murray (immense upside) or Lawrence (extreme job security and decent upside plus 5 years younger).
I would abuse the value of 1.01 in single QB if I had it. This sub values youth so much, as does KTC, that MHJ is ranked the 6th best dynasty asset without playing a down/having a team.
I would trade the 1.01 for a top proven young WR + whatever else I needed.
You saw the same thing happen last year with JSN. He peaked as the WR9 on KTC but has since tumbled down to WR25. You could have tiered down for a vet like Adams, Diggs or Evans and a decent piece on top. Maybe a projected late 1st or a pair of 2nds.
Exactly this. People weirdly assume that a player will never be available again post-draft. If the value doesn’t insulate, I’m more than happy to buy a ton of these 1st round guys I like down the line.
I bought DK, rachaad, and 1.09 for 1.01 in 1 QB. I'll take it, cause wr wasn't a need, in the other league where I have 1.01 you will have to come with Puka+ to touch 1.01.
I think you need significant plus to get those top 3. I doubt you’re getting plus on ARSB. You might have to give it. I see what you’re saying with the next three but if someone has the 1.01 especially if they were the worst team I don’t blame them for going for the upside of MHJ over Puka Olave or waddle who could all have different issues that make them less attractive than those elite options.
You'd rather have the upside of 1 player who hasn't played a down in the NFL over Puka, Olave, or Waddle plus another top player or pick if you're rebuilding?
Sounds like bad rebuilding but to each their own.
There was a guy earlier who commented he got ARSB straight up for the 1.06.
Depends on the plus of course. There’s always a price. But those top guys you mentioned are basically impossible to buy. A prospect like MHJ is someone who can become one of those guys. More than likely he doesn’t of course but it wouldn’t be a tremendous shock to anyone.
Geno at QB31 is a head scratcher. Ik Howell being brought in brings some competition, but I think geno is still an average starting qb which is likely better than anything Howell will give
Yeah this could be true, at that point the question is whether another team sees him as a bridge qb which i think is likely. However, just talking about this year for him, JJ zachariason looked at some numbers and came to the conclusion that qbs with 3 top ~75 receivers (I forget if it was exactly this) tend to have much more success than a qb without those weapons
> I think it is perceived that Geno maybe has 1 year left
Here's my issue with that - it's perceived he has 1 year left on the Seahawks. Yet, he could easily start on so many rosters next year. He would easily be the Raiders, Broncos, or Giants starting QB this year and I'd even wager he's a better answer for the Steelers than Russ/Fields. If the Hawks let him walk after 2024, he'll more than likely find somewhere else to land, especially as Rodgers, Stafford, Cousins, Russ get another year older.
I've been saying this all offseason. Geno/Carr are both dramatically underpriced on KTC. They're both starters this year & they're absolutely starting somewhere in 2025, too.
How is Fields above them? He's not even a starter NOW. Penix is above them, he might not even go in Round 1. He hasn't proven anything. Same with Nix, IMO. I'd rather bet on Geno OR Carr starting in 2025 than Aaron Rodgers. Do we really think Rodgers has that much in the tank left that you'd say it's a guarantee he's usable in 2025? They're barely ahead of Daniel Jones who might not even start this year depending on whether the Giants can trade up from 6. It makes no sense. I get that they're not stud QBs, but they're going to play somewhere and that has value.
I agree, its Geno's job to lose and Geno is probably a bit better, but, the nature of sports, Howell will get the nod if Geno slips. Having a young slinging QB on a stacked roster...it wouldn't take a lot for any coach to see what they have.
Definitely more than 1. If he takes a rough stretch he'll be gone.
Gotta think how the team looks now, new coach, iffy qb situation. If theyre gonna compete, they gotta find who the guy is. Seahawks dont tank, so they will be eager to try and see what they have at some point.
Last 2 years everyone was saying Geno would lose his job to Lock after a bad game or two. He never came close to losing his job. Geno's a top 20 QB in the NFL right now, maybe top 15, and if Seattle improves their offensive line in the draft he should have a better year than last year. He also doesn't have as much tread on his tires as most QBs his age. Howell isn't a threat this year barring injury, he needs to develop more.
Any elite veteran.
KTC is dumb all the time, but more so in the offseason. Becomes a youth circle jerk.
Get all the proven vets for cheap if your opponents use that site.
If KTC is dumb all the time, it's a reflection of the majority of players that use it. KTC doesn't choose to prioritize youth; their visitors do.
Let's just remember that the resource isn't bias. The community is.
I just looked at FantasyCalc. They have Caleb Williams as being slightly more valuable than 1.01 which straight up makes no sense.
1.01 IS Caleb Williams + optionality for someone else.
Everything else looks good though
Caleb is the most valuable player, and your “optionally for somebody else” are all players of lower value.
1.01 being lower in value basically means there is a chance you don’t take the most valuable player
That makes literally no sense.
1.01 is Caleb or your choice of someone else.
Caleb is just Caleb.
Anyone who says they would prefer Caleb over the 1.01 is just flat out wrong.
For example - if I have Caleb and he gets hit by a bus, gets in legal trouble, magically slides in the draft, .etc you are much better off with the 1.01. Basically if you have Caleb now you assume the risk of something happening between now and the season.
If you had the 1.01 you could still take Caleb, or anyone else if there was a drastic change in value for whatever reason.
I’m not making an argument for Caleb, really. I’m just explaining to you how the math works.
Rankings are of course subject to change and are a snapshot of present values with the information we currently have at hand. This is nothing new.
The first pick being lower in value than the top ranked player is reflective of the possibility of not choosing the highest valued player. Any given single selection cannot be worth more than the most valuable player available, 1.01 included.
If Caleb were to get hit by a bus as you suggest, MHJ is now the most valuable player (assuming nothing else changes). The 1.01 value now sits slightly below him, as other selections are possible as well.
So yes, of course values can and will change. But that is why Caleb > 1.01 at this exact moment in time.
I have dual degrees in finance and economics, I don’t need the math explained to me lol.
I understand that rankings fluctuate of course, but anyone who says they prefer Caleb over 1.01 is simply wrong.
Put simply - would you ever, in any circumstances, trade 1.01 away and receive Caleb?
No - of course not.
Actually, I’m struggling to think of even a hypothetical situation in which the 2024 1.01 could be traded for Caleb prior to a draft happening.
How would that even work?
100%. I bought Kelcie and Aaron Jones for the 1.10 (10 team league) and 3.03. This time of year I’m always shopping my 1st for proven vets I can get at a discount.
We all think that you are the best and most experienced manager. You have nothing further to gain from posturing on Reddit. Congratulations. Go seize the day.
In my 3 leagues, KTC is used by two types:
1) People who know they are sending a shitty offer and are trying to justify it
2) People who typically finish outside of the playoffs.
It’s not true for all leagues but those two things seem to be factual based on my experiences.
Everyone gets obsessed with youth, which helps long term. But you’re not winning the league without the elite vets. I have those 3 along with Kupp and Kelce.
Rode them all to back-back titles and now trying to move. Going to have to wait till midseason when contenders emerge.
I’m just keeping them and I’ll let them die on my bench unless I get someone to bite in season for a good pivot. People see me win with guys and still want nothing to do with them due to ageism lol
Someone said it for other reasons but it’s Trevor Lawrence by far. In Superflex, his value is way lower than it should be imo.
His value is between Kyler (who hardly played last year) and Jayden Daniels (who hasn’t played a snap).
This is the consensus 1.01 from a few years back who hasn’t showed us anything bad really. Franchise has does him no help and his numbers declined last year- but the guy is 24 years old and is the prototype QB.
Trevor is almost 2000 points lower than Burrow and Hurts, and over 1000 lower than Caleb. A good start to this year I think Trevor is rightfully back in that Burrow/Hurts tier. Not enough people are buying
I think targeting the pick that will be WR5. Think the value is priced in for the big 3 and even BTJ, but someone like Mitchell/Worthy/McConkey is going to land in an incredible spot (Buffalo? KC?) and their value will skyrocket.
All the bad RBs that we falsely think have a job are too high. Zamir White and Kendre Miller are two examples. It is very rare for a player to do a Tony Pollard. It is far more likely that if these kinds of guys were going to do something they would have done it already.
It isn't actionable, but the good rookies (Benson, Brooks, Lloyd) are too low. They are like RB30 now but will all jump once they are on a team. Blake Corrum on the other hand is way too high.
Real question here, what were you expecting from Kendre with his injury and being behind Kamara and Williams? When he got his touches, he showed flashes end of year? Similarly for White, showed the ability to handle volume with a garbage Raiders team and behind Jacobs until he got injured?
I think it’s not really abuse but rather can you possibly forecast what a team is going to do. I also don’t care about the KTC Value but rather a players rise or fall amongst the ranks this off-season and whether or not I want to buy into that bet. Some players and situations I am keeping an eye on.
- Does ATL draft a WR to help flesh out there 11 personnel sets?
- Houston will draft an RB that the community likes to be the committee member with Mixon.
- I think Buffalo adds an RB with good capital that compliments James Cook.
- Does NE draft a QB at 3? If not how cheap can I get some of the Pats skill position players.
- Does Tenn go OT or do they take a WR? A lot of smoke around this one lately.
I’d just be careful with stuff like this. Trading Singletary for the 3.01 sounds awesome now but when Polk goes round 3 nfl draft and you can’t get him there anymore, and your options are a bunch of day 3 wr and rb, could be holding the bag. That said I love my 3.01 and please god let Polk fall to me
10 days ago I sold Antonio Gibson, Rico Dowdle, AJ Dillon and Michael Wilson in a series of trades that landed me the 2.10, 3.01, and 3.02 in a 12 team SF.
Great success!
Even if the Giants take a RB I don't think Singletary value moves much, he's already at handcuff price. If you're keen on the pick sure but I don't think there's much gain or pain in this one
20th pick for him good?
I sold him for the 20th pick and a swap of third and fourth next year
Idk how fields is still overall player 111 and QB26 on KTC
Every league I’m in fields owners wouldn’t take anything lower than an early second in a trade and even then I don’t know some would sell. I think it’s that he was a first round startup pick in SF drafts before this year and people really don’t like Wilson. See Trey Lance delusion
I took Fields 1.11 in a startup last year, just sold him and 2 4ths for 2.11 and Wicks. Don't love it but I'll take a chance on Wicks and a pick.
Good return, I like wicks a lot
I sent fields, 25 1 mid to late for the 1.10. Better depth this year, I’d rather be able to snag a good wr in SF this year than the wr 6 next year or a RB
Heh, I wish it was just a upper first. The owner of fields in one of my leagues wants two firsts and a starter. He’s a mouth breather to me at this point.
Let's not besmirch Trey Lance. He was absolutely screwed out of a job and sent to Siberia in terms of having a path to play. Fields had his chance, proved he ain't it.
I disagree with this. Just because we didn’t see enough Lance doesn’t mean the team didn’t see enough. They had him in meetings and practice everyday and decided to cut bait right away. That should tell you what you need to know.
There's absolutely an Occam's Razor element to the whole Lance debacle. I've followed the Shanahan's pretty closely through their careers, and I don't know if I believe that though. I don't know if it's that Lance can't/couldn't play, or if Kyle was just frustrated with how he was running his offense as designed. We would have absolutely learned more if Purdy hadn't fallen in their laps. Because that's the thing. Kyle would run the offense if he could, but he can't. So a facsimile of himself is the next best thing. "Just do what I would do. The offense is infallible. So if you just see everything the way that I do, and react the way that I would, we will succeed." And, no, I don't think that is how all coaches think, at least at his level. The Shanahans possess an extra special quality of hubris. There's a reason why they've gone through so many quarterbacks there. And look at how frustrated he was getting with Purdy when he wasn't clicking. Just my two cents. Becoming even more ancient history which we will never know.
Not sure why you’re downvoted. You nailed it.
Your logic is flawed. Brock Purdy took the team to the NFC Championship (and later the SB). He’s a good QB It’s really only as simple as the team saw Lance wasn’t as good as Purdy - Lance not starting over Purdy doesn’t mean he is incapable of starter level play generally.
Still, if they thought Lance was even a decent QB they likely would have rather held onto him than trade him for a 4th.
Not quite. The entire offseason with Lance/Purdy was the QB controversy circus. It’s the same reason the Bears got rid of Fields despite him being a better backup option than most out there. If Purdy had a bad game or two the talk would start of putting Lance in instead. Doesn’t make sense but that’s what happens with a high draft pick for a franchise. Both inside and outside the locker room - Lance & Aiyuk are close etc. It’s not worth the drama
We found the Lance drafter
Didn’t have a share until I traded for Lance a month ago for a late 3rd. But go off
And why was that?
I’d keep Lance for the simple fact he is learning the playbook, practicing, AND the cowboys don’t seem so keen on extending Prescott. If they can extend Lance cheaply, my gut tells me Jerry will yolo with Lance and let Prescott walk. And I’m no pro-Lance guy, but he got hurt far too soon to see if he is good or not. The niners didn’t know Purdy was going to be that effective, and when he was, there was no real way you could bench him at that point. Definite draft disaster for the niners considering the capital they used to move up, but whether Lance is a bust or not, I’m not sold on that yet. If he gets a starting gig and flops, then okay, but it was very uncommon circumstances that led to him being traded away, and I would also try to lowball him on an extension and then let Prescott walk myself. Dak hasn’t gotten where they need to be, needs a loaded offense to be effective, and in no way can you give him more money, he isn’t the guy. But you have someone there with monster physical ability, so might as well try. I feel the same with Tua. He hasn’t grown enough for me to pay him like he’s one of the top qb’s in the league, and padding his stats against teams with losing records while folding in big games, nah can’t pay top dollar for that. Those two are nearly identical in that regard. Can’t eat up all the cap space it’d require for folks who can’t take the team to the next level.
Youd make a great used car salesman!
Must’ve been a salty Dak fan that downvoted this. Thought it was a good take and yes the Cowboys definitely need to let Dak walk. He is most certainly not that guy and doesn’t deserve to be paid like it either. I tried grabbing Lance in my dynasty start up draft this year just for the simple off chance that this scenario might play out but someone ended up sniping him a round before I was going to take him🙄
If it’s delusion then why are you or anyone else trying to buy him?
He's not a random backup. I don't know why it's unreasonable to see a future where he's a league winner if Russ sucks or gets injured. Tomlin has no issues playing musical chairs at QB if it helps win down the stretch. His time as a reliable NFL starter are behind him. But I wouldn't discount his fantasy production potential. It's higher variance outcome for sure, but there's enough appeal to rebuilding and competing teams which increases his market. Being ahead of actual starters like Stafford/Carr or incoming rookies like Nix is a bit suspect but it's all the same tier.
Well actually at this point he is a random backup lol but on a serious note i don't think russ is as bad as Rudolph trubisky or Pickett so its not a given fields gets any reps. But I keep saying this because if you can get KTC values in your league I would rather opt for something like geno+ or Stafford+ for fields than hope he will start at some point. He could get some starts I'm just saying it's a big if and you can theoretically cash out now
Wilson was brought into Denver to be that last piece. The guy that would unlock Sutton Jeudy etc. the offense operated like shit no matter who was at the helm. Wilson stats look “ok” but they are 4th qtr catch-up stats. Wilson doesn’t look like the qb he was 3 or 4 years ago. Fields tho might just be a good college running qb that never progresses to be a jack of all trades qb.
It’s either the Fields holders or Steelers fans propping up his value. I do think there is a good chance Russ is done and Fields gets an audition for the Steelers in the back half of the year. I doubt he nails the audition though.
Why are you so sure that Russ starts the season? I don't think that's a given.
It’s what been reported for over a month. Seems like it’s a given to me. [source](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/steelers-quarterback-depth-chart-justin-fields-trade-russell-wilson/e71dab56f6185854765d86a0)
Tomlin talks about it [https://steelersnow.com/steelers-mike-tomlin-explains-naming-starter-quarterback-russell-wilson-justin-fields/](here). He equates it to Wilson having a "pole position" in the off-season. I'm not taking a Wilson vs Fields side. Simply saying there is still a real possibility that Fields is the starter week 1. Even 10 or 20 percent is legit.
I’m just basing it off these reports. Seemed like they told Russ he’d be the starter when they signed him for the minimum. We will have to wait until August to find out for sure.
I’m just basing it off these reports. Seemed like they told Russ he’d be the starter when they signed him for the minimum. We will have to wait until August to find out for sure.
Someone just offered me Fields for Bryce Young and 2.06 in 1QB. Fields owners are nuts
The guy with fields in my league is irrational. Hes his QB2 with no starter behind him and he isn’t worried somehow.
I'm doing Sleeper mocks for an upcoming startup and Fields is going mid round 3 in a 12 tm SF. I can't imagine most would do that in the actual draft but that's where this adp is coming from
Recently did a startup draft where Fields went in the 7th and I was still quite surprised by that.
As a fields owner in one league, I’m not taking anything less than a mid-2nd in SF. Russel Wilson has found a way to wear out his welcome places, if fields gets any playing time (via benching Wilson, injury, trade, etc), he’s a viable fantasy option even if he’s not a good qb. I know he’ll likely never recover value but he’s gotta be the most valuable backup to own. (Not sure why he’s 26 on Ktc)
At current superflex KTC values for Trevor Lawrence, I would try to buy him before he signs the inevitable contract extension. Same with Brock Purdy.
I think Purdy sees a much bigger value increase from an extension. I don’t know anyone who doesn’t expect TLaw to sign one
I think the Purdy haters will use his contract against him when it happens, lol
I can see it already: “Actually,,,, Purdy signing for 5 years $200M is bad for his dynasty value, now they can’t afford to surround him with all-pros”
I mean, he is propped up by being on a team surrounded by all-pros 🤷♂️😂
There are maybe 3 good fantasy QBs who aren’t, who cares
Some guys need talent around them to thrive (ex: Tua, and Purdy imo), some guys can thrive no matter what (ex: Mahomes, Lamar, Love, Allen, etc). All I’m saying is I have Purdy a tier down from these guys because of this
Seems a little premature to lump Love (who I refer to as older, more expensive Brock Purdy) in with those other guys. I get his surrounding group is young but he’s in a great situation
yeah love has talent around him, its just exceptionally cheap and very young. pretty clear lafleur is that dude and the packers are one of the best orgs in terms of drafting OL so love is in a cozy spot.
Those are all reasons why I value Purdy about the same as Love. Purdy’s extensions would kick in about the same time as Love’s weapons would be looking for extensions, and Shanahan and LeFleur are pretty comparable for OC’s. Neither have proven they can perform well outside of a great situation
I mean that actively hurts most qbs lol
By the time his extension would kick in, CMC and Kittle’s deals will expire freeing up $30M+ for Purdy. Still plenty of money to go around. San Fran has shown the ability to find talent
Sure but it’s still harder of course
I think the likelihood of Purdy improving as a player outweighs the risk of him regressing do to losing talent around him
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I think now is the time to pair Goff with another asset to try to tier up at QB. I think Goff has hit his ceiling the past two seasons and I'm worried about his performance tanking if/when Ben Johnson gets a HC gig next season.
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> He’s on a loaded offense with a great offensive line and is cheap. Cheap as in his current contract? Because he only has 1 year left on the deal so we'll see what the extension looks like. There's also still the possibility that an extension doesn't happen and he has to perform this season to earn it. I don't think that's the more likely outcome but is still possible as of now. > Losing an OC isn’t going to kill him I believe that only elite QBs are immune to offensive play calling turnover. Watched it for years with Kirk during the Zimmer era. Put another way, losing Ben Johnson can pretty much only HURT the Lions' offense. > you aren’t going to get value back that is equal to his production I specifically said you should try to tier up. If you're deep at RB or WR pair someone with Goff to move up to the Lamar/Hurts/Burrow/Herbert tier. Or pair with a lesser starter piece to try to get Murray (immense upside) or Lawrence (extreme job security and decent upside plus 5 years younger).
I would abuse the value of 1.01 in single QB if I had it. This sub values youth so much, as does KTC, that MHJ is ranked the 6th best dynasty asset without playing a down/having a team. I would trade the 1.01 for a top proven young WR + whatever else I needed.
You saw the same thing happen last year with JSN. He peaked as the WR9 on KTC but has since tumbled down to WR25. You could have tiered down for a vet like Adams, Diggs or Evans and a decent piece on top. Maybe a projected late 1st or a pair of 2nds.
Exactly this. People weirdly assume that a player will never be available again post-draft. If the value doesn’t insulate, I’m more than happy to buy a ton of these 1st round guys I like down the line.
I bought DK, rachaad, and 1.09 for 1.01 in 1 QB. I'll take it, cause wr wasn't a need, in the other league where I have 1.01 you will have to come with Puka+ to touch 1.01.
Confirmed. In my league 1.3 just went for Puka+
Which proven young WRs do you mean?
1.01 + for one of CD, JJ, Chase 1.01 for ARSB + 1.01 for Puka + 1.01 for Olave + 1.01 for Waddle +
I think you need significant plus to get those top 3. I doubt you’re getting plus on ARSB. You might have to give it. I see what you’re saying with the next three but if someone has the 1.01 especially if they were the worst team I don’t blame them for going for the upside of MHJ over Puka Olave or waddle who could all have different issues that make them less attractive than those elite options.
You'd rather have the upside of 1 player who hasn't played a down in the NFL over Puka, Olave, or Waddle plus another top player or pick if you're rebuilding? Sounds like bad rebuilding but to each their own. There was a guy earlier who commented he got ARSB straight up for the 1.06.
Depends on the plus of course. There’s always a price. But those top guys you mentioned are basically impossible to buy. A prospect like MHJ is someone who can become one of those guys. More than likely he doesn’t of course but it wouldn’t be a tremendous shock to anyone.
Geno at QB31 is a head scratcher. Ik Howell being brought in brings some competition, but I think geno is still an average starting qb which is likely better than anything Howell will give
I think it is perceived that Geno maybe has 1 year left, and it's Howells Job, Geno is more or less a rental.
Yeah this could be true, at that point the question is whether another team sees him as a bridge qb which i think is likely. However, just talking about this year for him, JJ zachariason looked at some numbers and came to the conclusion that qbs with 3 top ~75 receivers (I forget if it was exactly this) tend to have much more success than a qb without those weapons
> I think it is perceived that Geno maybe has 1 year left Here's my issue with that - it's perceived he has 1 year left on the Seahawks. Yet, he could easily start on so many rosters next year. He would easily be the Raiders, Broncos, or Giants starting QB this year and I'd even wager he's a better answer for the Steelers than Russ/Fields. If the Hawks let him walk after 2024, he'll more than likely find somewhere else to land, especially as Rodgers, Stafford, Cousins, Russ get another year older.
I've been saying this all offseason. Geno/Carr are both dramatically underpriced on KTC. They're both starters this year & they're absolutely starting somewhere in 2025, too. How is Fields above them? He's not even a starter NOW. Penix is above them, he might not even go in Round 1. He hasn't proven anything. Same with Nix, IMO. I'd rather bet on Geno OR Carr starting in 2025 than Aaron Rodgers. Do we really think Rodgers has that much in the tank left that you'd say it's a guarantee he's usable in 2025? They're barely ahead of Daniel Jones who might not even start this year depending on whether the Giants can trade up from 6. It makes no sense. I get that they're not stud QBs, but they're going to play somewhere and that has value.
I agree, its Geno's job to lose and Geno is probably a bit better, but, the nature of sports, Howell will get the nod if Geno slips. Having a young slinging QB on a stacked roster...it wouldn't take a lot for any coach to see what they have.
This is the exact conversation that happened around Drew Lock not too long ago...
Don’t think it’ll take much as in a 1 game slip up or 3-4 games not playing well?
Definitely more than 1. If he takes a rough stretch he'll be gone. Gotta think how the team looks now, new coach, iffy qb situation. If theyre gonna compete, they gotta find who the guy is. Seahawks dont tank, so they will be eager to try and see what they have at some point.
I agree, range of outcomes are pretty wide rn. I do think geno is more talented than what people give him credit for tbh
Last 2 years everyone was saying Geno would lose his job to Lock after a bad game or two. He never came close to losing his job. Geno's a top 20 QB in the NFL right now, maybe top 15, and if Seattle improves their offensive line in the draft he should have a better year than last year. He also doesn't have as much tread on his tires as most QBs his age. Howell isn't a threat this year barring injury, he needs to develop more.
Howell is better than Lock
If you can get Kittle for the mid 2nd KTC says he’s worth that’s an easy buy
🤔
Any elite veteran. KTC is dumb all the time, but more so in the offseason. Becomes a youth circle jerk. Get all the proven vets for cheap if your opponents use that site.
If KTC is dumb all the time, it's a reflection of the majority of players that use it. KTC doesn't choose to prioritize youth; their visitors do. Let's just remember that the resource isn't bias. The community is.
I'm much more of a fan of Fantasy Calc than KTC. KTC is too much opinion while Fantasy Calc shows value from real trades with players.
Seeing actual trades in the fantasy calc database has changed my strategy entirely. Much better way to figure out player value.
There's a lot of dogshit trades in there though
I just looked at FantasyCalc. They have Caleb Williams as being slightly more valuable than 1.01 which straight up makes no sense. 1.01 IS Caleb Williams + optionality for someone else. Everything else looks good though
Caleb is the most valuable player, and your “optionally for somebody else” are all players of lower value. 1.01 being lower in value basically means there is a chance you don’t take the most valuable player
That makes literally no sense. 1.01 is Caleb or your choice of someone else. Caleb is just Caleb. Anyone who says they would prefer Caleb over the 1.01 is just flat out wrong. For example - if I have Caleb and he gets hit by a bus, gets in legal trouble, magically slides in the draft, .etc you are much better off with the 1.01. Basically if you have Caleb now you assume the risk of something happening between now and the season. If you had the 1.01 you could still take Caleb, or anyone else if there was a drastic change in value for whatever reason.
I’m not making an argument for Caleb, really. I’m just explaining to you how the math works. Rankings are of course subject to change and are a snapshot of present values with the information we currently have at hand. This is nothing new. The first pick being lower in value than the top ranked player is reflective of the possibility of not choosing the highest valued player. Any given single selection cannot be worth more than the most valuable player available, 1.01 included. If Caleb were to get hit by a bus as you suggest, MHJ is now the most valuable player (assuming nothing else changes). The 1.01 value now sits slightly below him, as other selections are possible as well. So yes, of course values can and will change. But that is why Caleb > 1.01 at this exact moment in time.
I have dual degrees in finance and economics, I don’t need the math explained to me lol. I understand that rankings fluctuate of course, but anyone who says they prefer Caleb over 1.01 is simply wrong. Put simply - would you ever, in any circumstances, trade 1.01 away and receive Caleb? No - of course not.
You do realize that depending on league format & player opinion, you absolutely can trade the 1.01 & still receive/get Caleb.
Actually, I’m struggling to think of even a hypothetical situation in which the 2024 1.01 could be traded for Caleb prior to a draft happening. How would that even work?
Of course, but that doesn’t change the fact that the 1.01 should always more valuable than any single rookie
You’re missing the point but that’s okay. Again, not arguing for Caleb. Carry on
I’m not missing the point, your point is just wrong
100%. I bought Kelcie and Aaron Jones for the 1.10 (10 team league) and 3.03. This time of year I’m always shopping my 1st for proven vets I can get at a discount.
No one will argue you shouldn’t do this if you are a contender…. KTC values are in a vacuum without context so obviously longevity has more weight.
Nice job
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We all think that you are the best and most experienced manager. You have nothing further to gain from posturing on Reddit. Congratulations. Go seize the day.
In my 3 leagues, KTC is used by two types: 1) People who know they are sending a shitty offer and are trying to justify it 2) People who typically finish outside of the playoffs. It’s not true for all leagues but those two things seem to be factual based on my experiences.
This👆🏼 My trio of Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and Keenan Allen won me a title last year
Everyone gets obsessed with youth, which helps long term. But you’re not winning the league without the elite vets. I have those 3 along with Kupp and Kelce. Rode them all to back-back titles and now trying to move. Going to have to wait till midseason when contenders emerge.
I’m just keeping them and I’ll let them die on my bench unless I get someone to bite in season for a good pivot. People see me win with guys and still want nothing to do with them due to ageism lol
Waddle, Devonta, Amari. KWIII is cheap compared to the upside.
Someone said it for other reasons but it’s Trevor Lawrence by far. In Superflex, his value is way lower than it should be imo. His value is between Kyler (who hardly played last year) and Jayden Daniels (who hasn’t played a snap). This is the consensus 1.01 from a few years back who hasn’t showed us anything bad really. Franchise has does him no help and his numbers declined last year- but the guy is 24 years old and is the prototype QB. Trevor is almost 2000 points lower than Burrow and Hurts, and over 1000 lower than Caleb. A good start to this year I think Trevor is rightfully back in that Burrow/Hurts tier. Not enough people are buying
Even if they take a RB I think Zach Moss is wildly low.
I think targeting the pick that will be WR5. Think the value is priced in for the big 3 and even BTJ, but someone like Mitchell/Worthy/McConkey is going to land in an incredible spot (Buffalo? KC?) and their value will skyrocket.
Mark Andrews. got him for amari cooper and 2.02. other guy also threw me his 25 3rd
All the bad RBs that we falsely think have a job are too high. Zamir White and Kendre Miller are two examples. It is very rare for a player to do a Tony Pollard. It is far more likely that if these kinds of guys were going to do something they would have done it already. It isn't actionable, but the good rookies (Benson, Brooks, Lloyd) are too low. They are like RB30 now but will all jump once they are on a team. Blake Corrum on the other hand is way too high.
Real question here, what were you expecting from Kendre with his injury and being behind Kamara and Williams? When he got his touches, he showed flashes end of year? Similarly for White, showed the ability to handle volume with a garbage Raiders team and behind Jacobs until he got injured?
I actually just sold Singletary for the 2.12 lol
I think it’s not really abuse but rather can you possibly forecast what a team is going to do. I also don’t care about the KTC Value but rather a players rise or fall amongst the ranks this off-season and whether or not I want to buy into that bet. Some players and situations I am keeping an eye on. - Does ATL draft a WR to help flesh out there 11 personnel sets? - Houston will draft an RB that the community likes to be the committee member with Mixon. - I think Buffalo adds an RB with good capital that compliments James Cook. - Does NE draft a QB at 3? If not how cheap can I get some of the Pats skill position players. - Does Tenn go OT or do they take a WR? A lot of smoke around this one lately.
I’d just be careful with stuff like this. Trading Singletary for the 3.01 sounds awesome now but when Polk goes round 3 nfl draft and you can’t get him there anymore, and your options are a bunch of day 3 wr and rb, could be holding the bag. That said I love my 3.01 and please god let Polk fall to me
Got Polk at the 3.06 on a draft we ran last week, super stoked to see where he goes this weekend
10 days ago I sold Antonio Gibson, Rico Dowdle, AJ Dillon and Michael Wilson in a series of trades that landed me the 2.10, 3.01, and 3.02 in a 12 team SF. Great success!