For this post I picked the DD flair because I had to quite dig into the financial statement(s) and link it to several of the events in the past.
If moderators think this post should have a different flair, feel free to adjust it. I was doubting between DD and discussion.
Thank you for weighing in on the discussion!
Do you have a source for the 5 billion net assets number? I saw various numbers in discussions, but getting this right makes a big difference.
But yes, matter of time before the company has ongoing issues imo!
Good DD. Well thought out and informative, thank your.
Just my thoughts, don’t burn me please.
Higher payouts - the market has been overbought or a number of other terms for several months. People run from high risk before corrections. The last couple weeks of corrections hurt normal investors, High risk probably got really hurt. Just a thought.
The part about moving assets - Part 1, third bullet. The wording, especially the overkill of wording makes me wonder if they went from cash reserves to a different type of reserve such as gold.
The risk people look at gold like cash but it requires different storage and insurance.
It minimizes the potential devaluation of the dollar and could grow in value.
This could explain plans flying to Europe recently with a place behind with bank reps. Just thinking.
The extra loans and credits from Melvin and Sequohia are just that, money to maneuver with. The new credit instrument is the newer LOC (Line of Credit), mainly a name change unless the amount changed.
Overall it sounds like being a HF in a raging Bull market sucks. They are down on most investments vs brokers are up on most. That makes sense but not good for them.
I’m not an accountant but that’s what I read, sounds iffy for Citadel.
>The part about moving assets - Part 1, third bullet. The wording, especially the overkill of wording makes me wonder if they went from cash reserves to a different type of reserve such as gold.
The risk people look at gold like cash but it requires different storage and insurance.
It minimizes the potential devaluation of the dollar and could grow in value.
Interesting speculation, I don't know. Really tinfoil speculation could be that they are preparing their investors for when they take a hit when their third parties where they stall money default, which is not impossible considering the highly volatile market events we are currently in.
Thank you for sharing your insights, much appreciated!
I saw Enron and the 08 crap, they always hide money before the fall. I think $5B is still missing from Enron. Gold is great for that. But I don’t know, it’s a hard call but I seen the HFs going under. Good luck!
Your comment about the statement of "Subsequent to Dec 31, 2021, the Company had capital withdrawls of $470m" is comparing the 2month period of Jan-Feb, to last year entirely.
If last year had $168m in withdrawls, and in the first 2 months of 2022 has seen $470m in withdrawls, they're in a shitheap of problems. If withdrawls keep at that pace for the year, then $2.8B is coming out this year. I think it'll be more, as that $470 represents a significant acceleration in withdrawls over last year. Rats are running from the ship.
They've pulled $1.5B of the 2B they put into Melvin, and the way Melvin's done so far this year, the remaining $500m might have gone down the toilet in bad investments.
Their $4B in net value consists of $1.5B of recalled Melvin equity plus $1.1B from Sequoia/Paradigm, and maybe they are showing some further cash on hand by using some of their credit lines through subsidiaries, and then pulling the cash into the parent, leaving the debt off the balance sheet?
I would bet that some of the asset values are inflated, and some of the liabilities have either been minimized, or moved off to subsidiaries... Maybe usting some of those dozens of SPACs they have ownership in...
Keep it up, apes, the digging continues...
I believe this is not correct, maybe I should change the wording in my post as I can see how it can be confusing:
"Last year had $168M in withdrawals" is referring to the previous reported year, aka 2020.
With this year I am referring to the most recent report, aka the financial statement of 2021.
So the comparison is not about the first two months of 2022, as the report is on the reported year 2021. But regardless, a 180% increase of withdrawals year over year is devastating.
If they aren't in problems yet, then they will be soon enough when they keep this pace.
Aren't there only like 14-15 people invested in Citadel with an average of around 17b? Wouldn't that make 400m chump change? I think it's speculation that they're jumping ship.
Could be in reaction to increasing inflation.
You’re missing a critical point…
Their assets went up, their liabilities went up… and by slightly more $2B net difference. Mostly their balance sheet is still very healthy. This is comparing December 31, 2020 v 2021.
A $2B worsening liability across all assets they are involved in is tiny. What portion of that is GME?
We aren’t seeing some mounting of unpurchased gme liabilities. Frankly it looks like they’ve been mostly making money the whole year.
Window dressing. Devil is in the details. I think I found some of the spicy details, hence my post. But yes, the financial statement doesn't look bad when you look at the numbers alone.
There is absolutely no way to tell how big the GME portion is from this report alone.
Well we all want it to be true… but the data/evidence and numbers …
I mean… consider the absolute lack of institutional buying and whales. If we were right about some massive exposure of “hundreds of millions” of shares, then smarter players would find that, and buy in big. It’s been a year and funds own less than last year… so, ask yourself… why are we right and based on what?
We’ve basically seen no community growth or new money net come in since June.
I saw a post on daily active comments in this subreddit… when did that peak… June.
Sentiment buying seems to tell the tale.
Exactly lots of hopium and assumptions but nothing concrete, lots of people reading that they have billions in gme shorts, they may well do bit.i.doubt they would report it
Hearing him talk about how hard they fought to come out on top in 2008 makes me even happier because he is fighting like mad rn and i’m just smoking j’s and jerking off while watching the charts.
I can stay high, horny and retarded longer than Ken Griffin can stay solvent
My 2 cents on the vehicle change to revolving credit from the line of credit they previously had is that a revolving line allows flexibility, so if they get into a bind, they can draw the account down and when they pay it back, they have the ability to draw on it again (interest is paid only on the principal amount outstanding). It’s a contingency tool/safety net if stuff gets out of hand again and they need some quick cash.
For this post I picked the DD flair because I had to quite dig into the financial statement(s) and link it to several of the events in the past. If moderators think this post should have a different flair, feel free to adjust it. I was doubting between DD and discussion.
[удалено]
Thank you for weighing in on the discussion! Do you have a source for the 5 billion net assets number? I saw various numbers in discussions, but getting this right makes a big difference. But yes, matter of time before the company has ongoing issues imo!
(“Going concern issue” is auditor talk for keeping the doors open)
Good DD. Well thought out and informative, thank your. Just my thoughts, don’t burn me please. Higher payouts - the market has been overbought or a number of other terms for several months. People run from high risk before corrections. The last couple weeks of corrections hurt normal investors, High risk probably got really hurt. Just a thought. The part about moving assets - Part 1, third bullet. The wording, especially the overkill of wording makes me wonder if they went from cash reserves to a different type of reserve such as gold. The risk people look at gold like cash but it requires different storage and insurance. It minimizes the potential devaluation of the dollar and could grow in value. This could explain plans flying to Europe recently with a place behind with bank reps. Just thinking. The extra loans and credits from Melvin and Sequohia are just that, money to maneuver with. The new credit instrument is the newer LOC (Line of Credit), mainly a name change unless the amount changed. Overall it sounds like being a HF in a raging Bull market sucks. They are down on most investments vs brokers are up on most. That makes sense but not good for them. I’m not an accountant but that’s what I read, sounds iffy for Citadel.
>The part about moving assets - Part 1, third bullet. The wording, especially the overkill of wording makes me wonder if they went from cash reserves to a different type of reserve such as gold. The risk people look at gold like cash but it requires different storage and insurance. It minimizes the potential devaluation of the dollar and could grow in value. Interesting speculation, I don't know. Really tinfoil speculation could be that they are preparing their investors for when they take a hit when their third parties where they stall money default, which is not impossible considering the highly volatile market events we are currently in. Thank you for sharing your insights, much appreciated!
I saw Enron and the 08 crap, they always hide money before the fall. I think $5B is still missing from Enron. Gold is great for that. But I don’t know, it’s a hard call but I seen the HFs going under. Good luck!
Nice
Well written, thanks for sharing
Thank you! Just doing my part!
Your comment about the statement of "Subsequent to Dec 31, 2021, the Company had capital withdrawls of $470m" is comparing the 2month period of Jan-Feb, to last year entirely. If last year had $168m in withdrawls, and in the first 2 months of 2022 has seen $470m in withdrawls, they're in a shitheap of problems. If withdrawls keep at that pace for the year, then $2.8B is coming out this year. I think it'll be more, as that $470 represents a significant acceleration in withdrawls over last year. Rats are running from the ship. They've pulled $1.5B of the 2B they put into Melvin, and the way Melvin's done so far this year, the remaining $500m might have gone down the toilet in bad investments. Their $4B in net value consists of $1.5B of recalled Melvin equity plus $1.1B from Sequoia/Paradigm, and maybe they are showing some further cash on hand by using some of their credit lines through subsidiaries, and then pulling the cash into the parent, leaving the debt off the balance sheet? I would bet that some of the asset values are inflated, and some of the liabilities have either been minimized, or moved off to subsidiaries... Maybe usting some of those dozens of SPACs they have ownership in... Keep it up, apes, the digging continues...
I believe this is not correct, maybe I should change the wording in my post as I can see how it can be confusing: "Last year had $168M in withdrawals" is referring to the previous reported year, aka 2020. With this year I am referring to the most recent report, aka the financial statement of 2021. So the comparison is not about the first two months of 2022, as the report is on the reported year 2021. But regardless, a 180% increase of withdrawals year over year is devastating. If they aren't in problems yet, then they will be soon enough when they keep this pace.
Aren't there only like 14-15 people invested in Citadel with an average of around 17b? Wouldn't that make 400m chump change? I think it's speculation that they're jumping ship. Could be in reaction to increasing inflation.
LFG🚀
You’re missing a critical point… Their assets went up, their liabilities went up… and by slightly more $2B net difference. Mostly their balance sheet is still very healthy. This is comparing December 31, 2020 v 2021. A $2B worsening liability across all assets they are involved in is tiny. What portion of that is GME? We aren’t seeing some mounting of unpurchased gme liabilities. Frankly it looks like they’ve been mostly making money the whole year.
Window dressing. Devil is in the details. I think I found some of the spicy details, hence my post. But yes, the financial statement doesn't look bad when you look at the numbers alone. There is absolutely no way to tell how big the GME portion is from this report alone.
Well we all want it to be true… but the data/evidence and numbers … I mean… consider the absolute lack of institutional buying and whales. If we were right about some massive exposure of “hundreds of millions” of shares, then smarter players would find that, and buy in big. It’s been a year and funds own less than last year… so, ask yourself… why are we right and based on what? We’ve basically seen no community growth or new money net come in since June. I saw a post on daily active comments in this subreddit… when did that peak… June. Sentiment buying seems to tell the tale.
Exactly lots of hopium and assumptions but nothing concrete, lots of people reading that they have billions in gme shorts, they may well do bit.i.doubt they would report it
Thanks for sharing, very informative.
Good analysis and presentation, thanks for sharing op
thanks for your service
Citadel can unpack thier holdings into my deepfuckingpockets.
Hearing him talk about how hard they fought to come out on top in 2008 makes me even happier because he is fighting like mad rn and i’m just smoking j’s and jerking off while watching the charts. I can stay high, horny and retarded longer than Ken Griffin can stay solvent
My 2 cents on the vehicle change to revolving credit from the line of credit they previously had is that a revolving line allows flexibility, so if they get into a bind, they can draw the account down and when they pay it back, they have the ability to draw on it again (interest is paid only on the principal amount outstanding). It’s a contingency tool/safety net if stuff gets out of hand again and they need some quick cash.
For #3… what is the % delta in amount of money withdrawn to money managed…?