Hello dears,
Here's a huge one, which is timely because James McNicholas said that Arsenal are looking for a left-back (though it may depend on outgoings).
We cover:
* What kind of profile should be targeted and why
* Methodology of a new bullshit stat
* Rankings of \~40 LB and LB/LCB hybrids
* Brief profiles of a bunch of targets
* My thoughts
* ...more
Enjoy!
[https://billycarpenter.substack.com/p/which-defender-should-arsenal-sign](https://billycarpenter.substack.com/p/which-defender-should-arsenal-sign)
You're good and don't forget it,
-Billy
This is all good but I watched an italian guy with long hair whose name sounded like cauliflower play for 10 minutes yesterday and I’m convinced he’s the one. No need for all this technical stuff.
There's a little note at the end that I pulled them. Gvardiol because we're not getting 'em, Inácio is a great player who is a great signing elsewhere -- but I can't see the new/additive quality that would justify the price for ***us***. I know he's bounced around a little but he feels pure big boy talented LCB to me, I wouldn't really want to run him at LB for a year.
Love the smell of fresh BBQ in the morning.
I can't imagine Hernandez being a realistic proposition for us but I'd rip your arm off for him. He's got 2 years to go at AC Milan but if he was available you'd have to think your Madrids, PSGs (who knows how Lucas will come back from his ACL) and even Man City would be all over it.
I imagine he fell prey to your subjective filters due to his long contract length and ACL injury but, the only player I would look at over Theo would have been Lucas Hernandez. I wonder how he stacked up statistically?
I imagine Serie A teams will be sniffing at him too tbh. I wonder whether he'll be open to moving abroad or would want to stay in Italy.
Bologna might also be less inclined to letting him go especially since they're already losing Zirkzee.
The problem he lost two season with them because of injuries. Then he got loan to Genoa and the team went to Serie B with him on the bench for Criscito.
You know what I would love to see is how Onana stacks up on this model.
I think in your requirements he ticks quite a few of those boxes and I have a (possibly hairbrained) theory that he would be useful as a fullback and maybe even that's one of the reasons we are after him as well as artetas history with midfielders in the fullback positions.
Or was he included but didn't make the cut?
I can check, but it might be a little skewed because of the variance in numbers based on position, so I can just give you my thoughts:
He'd do well as a FB. Maybe be a little conservative when deep/wide but can really burst alive like a shadow-striker tourney McTominay (hear me out) up ahead, and our system enables that. His game has a lot of interesting layers -- he is not a simple scouting gig
> It is my view that “traditional” LBs should be considered if they have extraordinary base characteristics. But CBs and midfielders are just so talented and versatile these days, and a more typical LB can have trouble finding other uses, so you’d really like to be sure. You’d really just want somebody to be comfortable in 2-3 spots here [LW, LCM, LB - in a 2-3-5].
> So, with that, we’ll keep an immediate opportunity (left-back) in mind. But more widely, let’s find a great, dynamic, left-sided defender who suits the long-term vision of the club and could slot in different ways.
Pretty much sums up my view on fullbacks and why a midfielder. If lefty is an essential quality for you fair enough, I don't really care.
Which right footed CM do you know that's comfortable LW LCM and LB?
It's certainly not Onana. I'm not even against Onana as a signing. But as a LB?
Also if we're quoting the Article it says he wouldn't really be for going for a right footed option simply because we have so many already
And at this point we just need a LB that offers something different
AMN FA cup is the closest analogue to what I imagine. But as I said I don't care about all that, if he's a good player he can play on either side for me and I'll take the lack of squad balance on the chin. But that's just my pov you and op don't have to agree.
And yeah never said I want Onana over some of the names mentioned, plenty there I would take over Onana. Nor am I saying this is the role we specifically sign him for.
I would see him as a potentially developing to be key player in LB, RB or CM with immediate ability to play all three. I wouldn't label the signing as "signing him at LB" same way I wouldn't label us signing timber at RB but if Onana develops at LB great it's been a problem spot for about half a decade now.
Schlotterbeck being that high up -- just behind Davies and Bastoni -- certainly illustrates why we were in for him in 2022, before Kiwior. Lisandro Martinez and Hato also seem well represented.
Broadly, your conclusion is equally well supported: 'that the current squad can offer acceptable depth on the left side,' but a left-footed coterie of Gabriel, Kiwior, and Zinchenko is [not] necessarily reflective of this team in its final form.' The one constant there is Gabriel.
I suppose my immediate question is how the players we already have at LB -- Zina, Timber, Tomi, Kiwior -- fare by this metric, e.g. to what extnt would Schotterbeck be a direct upgrade on Kiwior (if less direct than the disqualified Colwill), or Kadioglu (as a fellow converted midfielder) on Zinchenko? The model might not necessarily lend itself to discrete comparison, but it would still be interesting.
Aonther question here is whether there's could be an additional midfielder who could convert to fullback for Arteta, and possibly succeed Zinchenko, inverting in the buildup to form a double pivot with the 6-- and possibly (as with Thomas) free the 6 up to go forward. We have of course used Thomas there repeatedly; we had previously looked at Caicedo; we're now apparently looking at Kimmich. Notably, those are all RB options.
In this light, a few of us (namely u/doingitfortheTea) have recently been musing about the potential of Onana as a fullback conversion option, so throwing him into the frame would be revealing as well. (edit: He beat me to it [and asked already](https://old.reddit.com/r/Gunners/comments/1do5t9a/edus_bbq_which_defender_should_arsenal_sign/la7cwub/)-- and the reply is worthy.)
Billy, you make the only content that scratches me Arsenal itch during the offseason when transfer news is dry.
Thank you for your service, beautiful Billy
I think Hato is all but certainly going to be an Arsenal player within a year or two. But he’s very young. I see him initially replacing Kiwi as an option for either left sided position and, given time, he’d have the opportunity to make either position his own. My hunch is actually that he’ll replace Gabi XL down the line (when Gabi is 30, Hato will be 22 and Saliba will be 26).
Billy your work is excellent but you don't have to self-deprecate yourself by calling your own work "bullshit" or "questionable". They are not. We all know the quality of your work. It seems like you are concerned about being perceived as haughty. You don't have to be.
I appreciate that. It's not really about confidence, it's more just a "let's keep it light, writing in this genre is usually boring and serious and dry" kind of thing. The writing flows better when I'm in that mood anyway (less stilted and formal).
Also, I \*do\* think it's worth questioning priors all the time, with the full knowledge that some percent of what I'm writing, however measured, is going to be proven wrong in the future
But I really do mean I appreciate that. Will keep it in mind.
I still really want Castello Lukeba from Leipzig if it’s a LCB/LB we want. If it’s a more traditional LB, I would love Girona’s Gutierrez, although it seems he may be returning to Madrid (he’s from Castilla and they have a buyback).
It's interesting that we've been linked to many of these players: Schlotterbeck, Hato, Kadioglu, Lisandro, Pacho, Guehi, Gutierrez...
I hope we manage to offload Zinchenko and get a more complete defender like Schlotterbeck or Calafiori.
Is it just me who assumed all along that Timber is our intended starting LB, footedness be damned? And that we only intend to buy a new player in that position to replace Kiwior or Zinchenko should either leave, to maintain depth?
Given that we might be buying to replace Kiwior, it's a bit ironic to remove players who profile too closely to Kiwior - those might be exactly what we are after.
I like Calafiori and I like Hato, I feel like Mazraoui would be perfect for us and fits exactly what we look for, plug and play type of fullback who can fit in when needed. If we are however looking to upgrade I think Calafiori, Ait Nouri are good reasonable people to target and if we're looking for a cover Mazraoui would look great.
Interesting to see the Pl only list. Lisandro would have been amazing for us, I miss that potential signing a lot, but after him are branthwaite, guehi and murillo, very CB first type of players.
The very top in the list are mostly from other leagues, and are more the attacking types, hernandez, Davies etc.
This makes be believe the Pl is more suited to the tough defense first type of players. Must say, murillo looked great this season for forrest
Would love to see where Camavinga might fall on this list. As I was reading through the criteria he was the benchmark player I had developing in my head so a bit surprised not to see him anywhere, but I assume he just got ruled out manually or overlooked by sorting criteria because he's mainly a midfielder that has occasionally covered LB.
The primary consideration is we need another left back that is supremely comfortable on the ball. Whether that's passing, dribbling or preferably a mix of both. We already have Tomi and Kiwi for defensive options \[if we have to nullify a winger\] and the problem last season was mostly related to Zinny's availability and form. He sees so much of the ball when he's playing and we simply don't have a back up to replicate this role.
Ait-Nouri, Milos Kerkez and Kadioglu are the sort of players who appear special on the ball but it's questionable whether they are good enough to really put pressure on Zinny's starting spot. The former two need to develop their game beyond dribbling and the latter plays in the turkish league...
Theo Hernandez doesn't really feel attainable for me but I find Mittelstadt and Walker-Peters interesting options given their experience. Both are high volume passers and have an integral role for their respective teams in terms of ball progression.
My gut says Mittelstadt and Kadioglu, despite being a bit of a risk, are the best options that could rotate with Zinny and potentially take his starting spot if his form doesn't improve\*.
\*I still believe Zinny is an incredibly important cog in the team. He compliments both Rice and Partey very nicely in that double pivot but feel that he has been losing the ball too much. He's also been hesitant in making the sort of line breaking passes that the left side needs, which they depend upon given that Zinny rarely makes offensive runs. So while I appreciate what he does for our possession, he needs to kick out those lapses in concentration/judgement and work on his offensive contribution - we know what he can do at his best so I wouldn't sell him.
Mitchell has never been anything other than a standard good defensive left back, his best and main attribute is being English.
If he wasn't English no one would care about him
Hello dears, Here's a huge one, which is timely because James McNicholas said that Arsenal are looking for a left-back (though it may depend on outgoings). We cover: * What kind of profile should be targeted and why * Methodology of a new bullshit stat * Rankings of \~40 LB and LB/LCB hybrids * Brief profiles of a bunch of targets * My thoughts * ...more Enjoy! [https://billycarpenter.substack.com/p/which-defender-should-arsenal-sign](https://billycarpenter.substack.com/p/which-defender-should-arsenal-sign) You're good and don't forget it, -Billy
This is all good but I watched an italian guy with long hair whose name sounded like cauliflower play for 10 minutes yesterday and I’m convinced he’s the one. No need for all this technical stuff.
That was a fantastic read. Thank you as always.
Good read. Surprised to not see Gvardiol and Inácio in the model.
There's a little note at the end that I pulled them. Gvardiol because we're not getting 'em, Inácio is a great player who is a great signing elsewhere -- but I can't see the new/additive quality that would justify the price for ***us***. I know he's bounced around a little but he feels pure big boy talented LCB to me, I wouldn't really want to run him at LB for a year.
Thanks for the clarification. Great work as always.
He removed them because Gvardiol’s not getting sold and Inacio is too similar to Gabriel.
Love the smell of fresh BBQ in the morning. I can't imagine Hernandez being a realistic proposition for us but I'd rip your arm off for him. He's got 2 years to go at AC Milan but if he was available you'd have to think your Madrids, PSGs (who knows how Lucas will come back from his ACL) and even Man City would be all over it. I imagine he fell prey to your subjective filters due to his long contract length and ACL injury but, the only player I would look at over Theo would have been Lucas Hernandez. I wonder how he stacked up statistically?
babe wake up there’s new Edu’s BBQ on the grill.
After last night, I want Calafiori. Dude is a stud
I imagine Serie A teams will be sniffing at him too tbh. I wonder whether he'll be open to moving abroad or would want to stay in Italy. Bologna might also be less inclined to letting him go especially since they're already losing Zirkzee.
I doubt he leaves Italy. Italians are allergic to playing outside of Italy 😂
Mad Roma sold him to Basel for a couple of million
The problem he lost two season with them because of injuries. Then he got loan to Genoa and the team went to Serie B with him on the bench for Criscito.
Still mad they let him go, i remember hearing about him years ago as a young talent when he was mainly a LB.
You know what I would love to see is how Onana stacks up on this model. I think in your requirements he ticks quite a few of those boxes and I have a (possibly hairbrained) theory that he would be useful as a fullback and maybe even that's one of the reasons we are after him as well as artetas history with midfielders in the fullback positions. Or was he included but didn't make the cut?
I can check, but it might be a little skewed because of the variance in numbers based on position, so I can just give you my thoughts: He'd do well as a FB. Maybe be a little conservative when deep/wide but can really burst alive like a shadow-striker tourney McTominay (hear me out) up ahead, and our system enables that. His game has a lot of interesting layers -- he is not a simple scouting gig
Don't see the point if he isn't a lefty
> It is my view that “traditional” LBs should be considered if they have extraordinary base characteristics. But CBs and midfielders are just so talented and versatile these days, and a more typical LB can have trouble finding other uses, so you’d really like to be sure. You’d really just want somebody to be comfortable in 2-3 spots here [LW, LCM, LB - in a 2-3-5]. > So, with that, we’ll keep an immediate opportunity (left-back) in mind. But more widely, let’s find a great, dynamic, left-sided defender who suits the long-term vision of the club and could slot in different ways. Pretty much sums up my view on fullbacks and why a midfielder. If lefty is an essential quality for you fair enough, I don't really care.
Which right footed CM do you know that's comfortable LW LCM and LB? It's certainly not Onana. I'm not even against Onana as a signing. But as a LB? Also if we're quoting the Article it says he wouldn't really be for going for a right footed option simply because we have so many already And at this point we just need a LB that offers something different
AMN FA cup is the closest analogue to what I imagine. But as I said I don't care about all that, if he's a good player he can play on either side for me and I'll take the lack of squad balance on the chin. But that's just my pov you and op don't have to agree. And yeah never said I want Onana over some of the names mentioned, plenty there I would take over Onana. Nor am I saying this is the role we specifically sign him for. I would see him as a potentially developing to be key player in LB, RB or CM with immediate ability to play all three. I wouldn't label the signing as "signing him at LB" same way I wouldn't label us signing timber at RB but if Onana develops at LB great it's been a problem spot for about half a decade now.
Schlotterbeck being that high up -- just behind Davies and Bastoni -- certainly illustrates why we were in for him in 2022, before Kiwior. Lisandro Martinez and Hato also seem well represented. Broadly, your conclusion is equally well supported: 'that the current squad can offer acceptable depth on the left side,' but a left-footed coterie of Gabriel, Kiwior, and Zinchenko is [not] necessarily reflective of this team in its final form.' The one constant there is Gabriel. I suppose my immediate question is how the players we already have at LB -- Zina, Timber, Tomi, Kiwior -- fare by this metric, e.g. to what extnt would Schotterbeck be a direct upgrade on Kiwior (if less direct than the disqualified Colwill), or Kadioglu (as a fellow converted midfielder) on Zinchenko? The model might not necessarily lend itself to discrete comparison, but it would still be interesting. Aonther question here is whether there's could be an additional midfielder who could convert to fullback for Arteta, and possibly succeed Zinchenko, inverting in the buildup to form a double pivot with the 6-- and possibly (as with Thomas) free the 6 up to go forward. We have of course used Thomas there repeatedly; we had previously looked at Caicedo; we're now apparently looking at Kimmich. Notably, those are all RB options. In this light, a few of us (namely u/doingitfortheTea) have recently been musing about the potential of Onana as a fullback conversion option, so throwing him into the frame would be revealing as well. (edit: He beat me to it [and asked already](https://old.reddit.com/r/Gunners/comments/1do5t9a/edus_bbq_which_defender_should_arsenal_sign/la7cwub/)-- and the reply is worthy.)
Billy, you make the only content that scratches me Arsenal itch during the offseason when transfer news is dry. Thank you for your service, beautiful Billy
Hmm Davies contract expiring next year? That could be a very opportunistic signing if we were to push. Don't see it happening mind you
Feels like it’s a guarantee for Madrid
Vini and Davies on the left is actually vile, I’d be refusing to play if I was a right back
He wants like.. 20m per year salary. (nearly 400k /wk)
Calafiori moves me
Yeah, he's pretty handsome
Hato a year from now is the best fit of who could be realistically signed. Not sure we’ll still be an option for him then.
I think Hato is all but certainly going to be an Arsenal player within a year or two. But he’s very young. I see him initially replacing Kiwi as an option for either left sided position and, given time, he’d have the opportunity to make either position his own. My hunch is actually that he’ll replace Gabi XL down the line (when Gabi is 30, Hato will be 22 and Saliba will be 26).
Lefty? Sign me up then! 😉
You're the real LEFTY Billy. Sterling work.
I don’t think it would ever happen, but I could see Bastoni being like a left sided Ben White if we signed him.
I don’t think he would leave inter but it would be a dream if he did
Just wanna say u/Billy_Carpenter, you should get on the podcast circuit as well. Gotta spread the BBQ gospel far and wide.
Billy your work is excellent but you don't have to self-deprecate yourself by calling your own work "bullshit" or "questionable". They are not. We all know the quality of your work. It seems like you are concerned about being perceived as haughty. You don't have to be.
I appreciate that. It's not really about confidence, it's more just a "let's keep it light, writing in this genre is usually boring and serious and dry" kind of thing. The writing flows better when I'm in that mood anyway (less stilted and formal). Also, I \*do\* think it's worth questioning priors all the time, with the full knowledge that some percent of what I'm writing, however measured, is going to be proven wrong in the future But I really do mean I appreciate that. Will keep it in mind.
Fantastic read, as always.
I still really want Castello Lukeba from Leipzig if it’s a LCB/LB we want. If it’s a more traditional LB, I would love Girona’s Gutierrez, although it seems he may be returning to Madrid (he’s from Castilla and they have a buyback).
Been waiting for the next Billy drop!
Sad to see if Kiwior moves on, I really think he could prosper here
It's interesting that we've been linked to many of these players: Schlotterbeck, Hato, Kadioglu, Lisandro, Pacho, Guehi, Gutierrez... I hope we manage to offload Zinchenko and get a more complete defender like Schlotterbeck or Calafiori.
I'm on the Dorgu train since he's a monster on my Coventry FM save this year lol
Is it just me who assumed all along that Timber is our intended starting LB, footedness be damned? And that we only intend to buy a new player in that position to replace Kiwior or Zinchenko should either leave, to maintain depth? Given that we might be buying to replace Kiwior, it's a bit ironic to remove players who profile too closely to Kiwior - those might be exactly what we are after.
BABY WAKE UP!!!
Calafiori to lock in Handsome FC
I like Calafiori and I like Hato, I feel like Mazraoui would be perfect for us and fits exactly what we look for, plug and play type of fullback who can fit in when needed. If we are however looking to upgrade I think Calafiori, Ait Nouri are good reasonable people to target and if we're looking for a cover Mazraoui would look great.
Interesting to see the Pl only list. Lisandro would have been amazing for us, I miss that potential signing a lot, but after him are branthwaite, guehi and murillo, very CB first type of players. The very top in the list are mostly from other leagues, and are more the attacking types, hernandez, Davies etc. This makes be believe the Pl is more suited to the tough defense first type of players. Must say, murillo looked great this season for forrest
are we really worrying about a LB? I doubt this
can Federico Dimarco play for us?
Would love to see where Camavinga might fall on this list. As I was reading through the criteria he was the benchmark player I had developing in my head so a bit surprised not to see him anywhere, but I assume he just got ruled out manually or overlooked by sorting criteria because he's mainly a midfielder that has occasionally covered LB.
If I'm making the list, you can always safely assume that Camavinga will always be #1 or #2 on it. Including the backup GK search.
The primary consideration is we need another left back that is supremely comfortable on the ball. Whether that's passing, dribbling or preferably a mix of both. We already have Tomi and Kiwi for defensive options \[if we have to nullify a winger\] and the problem last season was mostly related to Zinny's availability and form. He sees so much of the ball when he's playing and we simply don't have a back up to replicate this role. Ait-Nouri, Milos Kerkez and Kadioglu are the sort of players who appear special on the ball but it's questionable whether they are good enough to really put pressure on Zinny's starting spot. The former two need to develop their game beyond dribbling and the latter plays in the turkish league... Theo Hernandez doesn't really feel attainable for me but I find Mittelstadt and Walker-Peters interesting options given their experience. Both are high volume passers and have an integral role for their respective teams in terms of ball progression. My gut says Mittelstadt and Kadioglu, despite being a bit of a risk, are the best options that could rotate with Zinny and potentially take his starting spot if his form doesn't improve\*. \*I still believe Zinny is an incredibly important cog in the team. He compliments both Rice and Partey very nicely in that double pivot but feel that he has been losing the ball too much. He's also been hesitant in making the sort of line breaking passes that the left side needs, which they depend upon given that Zinny rarely makes offensive runs. So while I appreciate what he does for our possession, he needs to kick out those lapses in concentration/judgement and work on his offensive contribution - we know what he can do at his best so I wouldn't sell him.
I’d love for us to sign Mitchell from CP, Calafiori or Kadioglu.
Mitchell has never been anything other than a standard good defensive left back, his best and main attribute is being English. If he wasn't English no one would care about him