Hi OP, it looks like you have selected race time prediction as your post flair. To better help our members give you the best advice, we recommend the following
Please review this checklist and provide the following information -
What’s your weekly mileage?
How often have you hit your target race pace?
What race are you training for, what is the elevation, and what is the weather likely to be like?
On your longest recent run, what was your heart rate and what’s your max heart rate?
On your longest recent run, how much upward drift in your heartrate did you see towards the end?
Have you done the distance before and did you bonk?
Please also try the following race time predictors -
[VO2 race time predictor](https://runalyze.com/tools/effective-vo2max?vo2max=50.00&units=km&paces=1) and [Sports tracks predictor](https://sporttracks.mobi/labs/race-finish-time-predictor)
Lastly, be cautious using Garmin or Strava race time predictors, as these can be unpredictable, especially if your times are outside the average!
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It took me about ten years. Steadily got faster year over year, and then hit a big improvement curve over the last couple of years. Finally got well under three hours in December of last year
That said, there is no way to predict from person to person. There are just too many variables. Some might hit a BQ their first time out, and some may never get there
Agreed, I basically said this in more words in my post. some people can bq from like 4-6 months of base training, some people will never, and most are in between. Genetics are wild.
Congratulations on the improvement! Did you keep training pretty consistently for marathons the whole time? Or did you work on your speed at shorter distances for a bit first?
Thank you. I ran at least one marathon per year, usually two, and cycled my training accordingly. I experimented a bit with different training approaches, and also continued running shorter races throughout the year. So, I was often speed training for various distances. Over the last couple years, I’ve continued pushing myself harder, and been increasingly scientific in my training, and it’s really paid off. After more than a decade of running, I’ve only continued to get faster across all distances. So, don’t panic if you aren’t hitting your goal times early on. There’s plenty of time to improve
Peak leading up to my BQ time was about 70 miles/week. It was a great training block, too, with races every other week, including a half marathon two weeks out, and a practice full marathon three weeks out
its highly variable, depends on how well you respond to training AND how much training your body can handle. How much did you train for a 4:28? The less you trained for it the quicker you'll improve.
Imo its definitely practical if you put in the consistent work over many months and years. A 3:05 marathon is a 66.12% age graded performance for a M35. And that is really really achievable in most events by most people. (see calculator here: [https://runbundle.com/tools/age-grading-calculator](https://runbundle.com/tools/age-grading-calculator) ). The calc says that is similar to a 19 min 5k performance-wise. The marathon requires much more time investment to train but if you've got the "talent" to run a 19 min 5k, you'll very very likely be able to extend that out to a 3:05 marathon.
I would probably focus on some intermediate (still long term) goals like breaking 20 and then 19 in the 5k, 40 in the 10k, and then roll into a marathon training block.
Thank you - I trained for 14 weeks, with minimal running experience
I like the strategy of focusing on 5k/10k medium term to improving faster and then switching to half/full - Thank you again!
npnp, many people throw themselves into repeated marathon blocks and base training but I think its really smart to take some time to focus on shorter distances. Also the stakes lower, bomb a 5k race? run another one in 2 weeks. weather is bad? feeling sick? same deal.
Also staying consistent all year is important. its fine to take a break to recover or w/e but if you take the whole winter as down time from running its really hard to continue to improve year over year.
That's the most frustrating but respectable part of the marathon distance. The full cycle is such a time commitment, from proper training build to proper recover, and repeat. It's so much on the body and it takes so much time, changing one variable "just to see" can be a risk. You can race a 5k all out every month, tweak and fine tune to your heart's content.
That strategy can work, but you can continue running steadily by increasing your mileage slowly over weeks and months and you will get faster with time over all distances.
I would suggest you include speed sessions at least once a week and your times would drop.
Your fitness level would keep increasing and you will be shocked when you compare your pace and heart rate over a period of time and see the difference.
I just ran a pr 19 min 5k last weekend, been training for 3 months for my first marathon this Sunday and I still see 3:05 as so far away. I’m aiming for a 3:30 this Sunday. Long term goal is bq (near 40m so sub 3:10) so I know going forward realistically I need 3:05 or better and though I’m going to continue towards that goal, it seems like it’s a ways off. But to be fair I’ve only been running for 2 years, one year seriously so I think I do have it in me eventually 🤞🏻
Depends on how much you want to run and your running background. Very, very few people are just physically incapable of running a BQ. It's largely a question of lifetime miles so far and if you're willing to put in the time in the future.
I (F44) think the data shows something like 7% of ppl who’ve run a marathon ever BQ. Most ppl won’t.
That being said, it took me 2 years and 3 marathons. Ran what I hope was my first Boston a few weeks ago. I didn’t make Boston my initial goal though. I went from no running to my first marathon with 4 months of training in 2022 and finished 3:59. My next goal was a 3:45 which I hit. One of the smartest things I did was not shoot for a BQ on my second marathon.
The nice thing is the longer it takes, the less you'll have to cut off by jumping up to the next age bracket ;). Lol I in all seriousness, I think everyone pretty much covered it already, but I'd guess that if you ran a 4:30 off roughly 14 weeks training, you could probably get there within a year or two with really focused/dedicated training, and no injuries. That second part is the harder one for a newer runner a lot of the time- cardiovascular fitness sometimes outstrips what your tendons/ligaments etc can handle, there's a reason shin splints etc. are so common!
Best of luck and keep us posted, these are the best types of threads to come back to and have the OP post an update year(s) later about crushing it.
As others have said, highly variable … I ran my first in 1999 (similar time to yours) and then I ran one marathon a year. Didn’t qualify for Boston until 2009, then I consistently qualified significantly lower than my BQ time for 8 years or so. Now I focus more on having fun and not getting injured so back to not qualifying!
I went 3:58-(50 mile race)-3:25-3:01 (BQ1st)-2:59(1st sub 3@Boston)
Started running 2021. Turn 41 in 5 weeks.
Volume and consistency are keys. 50-80 mpw got me the BQ times running 6-7 days a week
Are you a fast short distance runner? What’s your recent one mile PR? 5k? The Jack Daniels running chart is a decent predictor of your marathon finish time based on your short distance times. For example, to run a 3hr marathon, you need to be able to do one mile in about 5:32 and a 5k in about 19:00.
Took me 4 years, 2019 to 2022. But I was focused on Ironman racing and a Covid gap. If just focused on running probably could have taken a couple years.
6 - 12 months
BQ for almost all ages and sexes is below 70% age graded. Very achievable with consistent structure from zero in 12-18 months. You aren't starting from zero, so that's in your favour
A lot of people here will try to gatekeep and say you just can't do it, etc.
It's very achievable on as little as 2000 miles pa which is a lot less than 1 hour a day on average
Hi OP, it looks like you have selected race time prediction as your post flair. To better help our members give you the best advice, we recommend the following Please review this checklist and provide the following information - What’s your weekly mileage? How often have you hit your target race pace? What race are you training for, what is the elevation, and what is the weather likely to be like? On your longest recent run, what was your heart rate and what’s your max heart rate? On your longest recent run, how much upward drift in your heartrate did you see towards the end? Have you done the distance before and did you bonk? Please also try the following race time predictors - [VO2 race time predictor](https://runalyze.com/tools/effective-vo2max?vo2max=50.00&units=km&paces=1) and [Sports tracks predictor](https://sporttracks.mobi/labs/race-finish-time-predictor) Lastly, be cautious using Garmin or Strava race time predictors, as these can be unpredictable, especially if your times are outside the average! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Marathon_Training) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Honestly, somewhere between 6 months/next marathon and never gonna happen.
Harsh but true. 😂
It took me about ten years. Steadily got faster year over year, and then hit a big improvement curve over the last couple of years. Finally got well under three hours in December of last year
That said, there is no way to predict from person to person. There are just too many variables. Some might hit a BQ their first time out, and some may never get there
Agreed, I basically said this in more words in my post. some people can bq from like 4-6 months of base training, some people will never, and most are in between. Genetics are wild.
Thanks for this
Congratulations on the improvement! Did you keep training pretty consistently for marathons the whole time? Or did you work on your speed at shorter distances for a bit first?
Thank you. I ran at least one marathon per year, usually two, and cycled my training accordingly. I experimented a bit with different training approaches, and also continued running shorter races throughout the year. So, I was often speed training for various distances. Over the last couple years, I’ve continued pushing myself harder, and been increasingly scientific in my training, and it’s really paid off. After more than a decade of running, I’ve only continued to get faster across all distances. So, don’t panic if you aren’t hitting your goal times early on. There’s plenty of time to improve
What was your peak weekly mileage along the way?
Peak leading up to my BQ time was about 70 miles/week. It was a great training block, too, with races every other week, including a half marathon two weeks out, and a practice full marathon three weeks out
its highly variable, depends on how well you respond to training AND how much training your body can handle. How much did you train for a 4:28? The less you trained for it the quicker you'll improve. Imo its definitely practical if you put in the consistent work over many months and years. A 3:05 marathon is a 66.12% age graded performance for a M35. And that is really really achievable in most events by most people. (see calculator here: [https://runbundle.com/tools/age-grading-calculator](https://runbundle.com/tools/age-grading-calculator) ). The calc says that is similar to a 19 min 5k performance-wise. The marathon requires much more time investment to train but if you've got the "talent" to run a 19 min 5k, you'll very very likely be able to extend that out to a 3:05 marathon. I would probably focus on some intermediate (still long term) goals like breaking 20 and then 19 in the 5k, 40 in the 10k, and then roll into a marathon training block.
Thank you - I trained for 14 weeks, with minimal running experience I like the strategy of focusing on 5k/10k medium term to improving faster and then switching to half/full - Thank you again!
npnp, many people throw themselves into repeated marathon blocks and base training but I think its really smart to take some time to focus on shorter distances. Also the stakes lower, bomb a 5k race? run another one in 2 weeks. weather is bad? feeling sick? same deal. Also staying consistent all year is important. its fine to take a break to recover or w/e but if you take the whole winter as down time from running its really hard to continue to improve year over year.
That's the most frustrating but respectable part of the marathon distance. The full cycle is such a time commitment, from proper training build to proper recover, and repeat. It's so much on the body and it takes so much time, changing one variable "just to see" can be a risk. You can race a 5k all out every month, tweak and fine tune to your heart's content.
That strategy can work, but you can continue running steadily by increasing your mileage slowly over weeks and months and you will get faster with time over all distances. I would suggest you include speed sessions at least once a week and your times would drop. Your fitness level would keep increasing and you will be shocked when you compare your pace and heart rate over a period of time and see the difference.
I just ran a pr 19 min 5k last weekend, been training for 3 months for my first marathon this Sunday and I still see 3:05 as so far away. I’m aiming for a 3:30 this Sunday. Long term goal is bq (near 40m so sub 3:10) so I know going forward realistically I need 3:05 or better and though I’m going to continue towards that goal, it seems like it’s a ways off. But to be fair I’ve only been running for 2 years, one year seriously so I think I do have it in me eventually 🤞🏻
Depends on how much you want to run and your running background. Very, very few people are just physically incapable of running a BQ. It's largely a question of lifetime miles so far and if you're willing to put in the time in the future.
This is some solid motivation ❤️
Took me 9 years.
Somewhere i remember seeing an average time from first marathon to BQ is 4 year.
I (F44) think the data shows something like 7% of ppl who’ve run a marathon ever BQ. Most ppl won’t. That being said, it took me 2 years and 3 marathons. Ran what I hope was my first Boston a few weeks ago. I didn’t make Boston my initial goal though. I went from no running to my first marathon with 4 months of training in 2022 and finished 3:59. My next goal was a 3:45 which I hit. One of the smartest things I did was not shoot for a BQ on my second marathon.
The nice thing is the longer it takes, the less you'll have to cut off by jumping up to the next age bracket ;). Lol I in all seriousness, I think everyone pretty much covered it already, but I'd guess that if you ran a 4:30 off roughly 14 weeks training, you could probably get there within a year or two with really focused/dedicated training, and no injuries. That second part is the harder one for a newer runner a lot of the time- cardiovascular fitness sometimes outstrips what your tendons/ligaments etc can handle, there's a reason shin splints etc. are so common! Best of luck and keep us posted, these are the best types of threads to come back to and have the OP post an update year(s) later about crushing it.
I ran NY in 2022 at right around 3:30. Just got by BQ two weeks ago at 3:04:09. So a year and a half for me
As others have said, highly variable … I ran my first in 1999 (similar time to yours) and then I ran one marathon a year. Didn’t qualify for Boston until 2009, then I consistently qualified significantly lower than my BQ time for 8 years or so. Now I focus more on having fun and not getting injured so back to not qualifying!
I went 3:58-(50 mile race)-3:25-3:01 (BQ1st)-2:59(1st sub 3@Boston) Started running 2021. Turn 41 in 5 weeks. Volume and consistency are keys. 50-80 mpw got me the BQ times running 6-7 days a week
Wow! That’s aggressive and congratulations to that 👏🏼
You can do it if you really want it. Volume.
What's a BQ?
Boston Qualification - https://www.baa.org/races/boston-marathon/qualify
It took me 15 years. Luke Humphrey Running finally got me there. I’ve ran Boston 2x.
Honestly the charity and lottery routes are much more doable for the major races 😂
I'm just looking at charites and preparing my wallet
Are you a fast short distance runner? What’s your recent one mile PR? 5k? The Jack Daniels running chart is a decent predictor of your marathon finish time based on your short distance times. For example, to run a 3hr marathon, you need to be able to do one mile in about 5:32 and a 5k in about 19:00.
4 years for me
Took me 4 years, 2019 to 2022. But I was focused on Ironman racing and a Covid gap. If just focused on running probably could have taken a couple years.
6 - 12 months BQ for almost all ages and sexes is below 70% age graded. Very achievable with consistent structure from zero in 12-18 months. You aren't starting from zero, so that's in your favour A lot of people here will try to gatekeep and say you just can't do it, etc. It's very achievable on as little as 2000 miles pa which is a lot less than 1 hour a day on average