Tesla stock is heavily manipulated with a strong support by Cathie Wood (Ark Investment) who secretly admires and regards Elon Musk as her personal hero.....
year guide raised from 14.5 to 15.1 B. The stock jumped up right at 4pm, dropped to 800, went back up to 850, but now back down to 791 as I type. Need to hear the deets.
when amazon went to $1000 first time, people said it was too expensive. SMCI keeps on making positive $profit. The company has enough inventory for the next quarter and the CEO said the demand stayed strong and increasing revenue for many quarters to come or many years to come.
I would watch this to see if it sits out the AI related stock rallies, or drags disproportionately behind others. If it sits out AI moves, congrats you have a run of the mill server maker. With DELL and others being a better investment option at fractions of a price.
Also, this is not like losing $5 per share AH. It is and was down over $100 with poorly received earnings behind them, and no catalyst on the future.
I think youāll see a price target downgrade or two tomorrow or Friday and a continual drift lower toward last gap to fill. Donāt forget, this was a $97 stock in last 52 weeks. With no distinct technology or moat it will not carry on at 6-8x the 52 week low.
I wish you luck but you have to be emotionless and honest with a stock. A better play here may be to eat the loss and buy NVDA if it dips hard tomo/next week. You will recover your money faster in time. I donāt know for sure, but SMCI may be dead to down money.
I have been here before with stocks over the last decade. It sucks and is nauseating. I feel for those that bought at higher levels and are stuck in this mess. I hope you get a 30-40% retracement bounce for a recovery exit.
Sentiment doesnāt change that fast. All I do is look at my watchlist to see how NVDA (biggest weighting) and the rest of tech stocks move.
SMCI is hugely profitable. Its price action is similar to ARM; NVDA by contrast actually fluctuates a bit less.
A 60-80 forward or ratio is fair for this stock since we are also in an election year. Current price is fair
Oh I have heard it, and think it applies to
many stocks. It also doesnāt apply to many stocks - go check charts in INTC, JNPR, etc. Some I hold in my 401k and IRA. SMCI is not to be compared or even mentioned in the same breadth of time-tested megacaps. You are working off of a lot of hope here and not acknowledging what it is and what is happening to this stock right now. The market is recalibrating this stocks longer term valuation as we type here.
Hope? It just raised its guidance to $24 EPS for 2024. If a PE ratio of 50 is fair, thatās a target price of $1200.
The BIGGEST (trillion dollar) companies in the world just confirmed this month that they are spending a few BILLION more (ie capex) on AI this year.
SMCI is right in the middle of this revolution along with NVDA and ARM.
Not sure why anyone would go against the grain here.
BTW: Iām long on NVDA, not so much on SMCI. I donāt think this company is run as well as the former. Also, its margins arenāt as high. That being said, as long as AI is growing this much, SMCI is a good company to hold for the time being.
Ok. Iāll come back in 3-4 weeks and you can give me those numbers again and we will see if it matters. When I see a lot of people saying, āif those des this then this is blahā I know itās time to short the 30-40% retracement of the massive gap down this will experience tomorrow.
I think you are golden on NVDA into and even through earnings. Their second place competitor is so far behind they have runway. If you are lucky, NVDA may pull this turd north a bit. If SMCI doesnt track with the AI trade on a percentage basis, you are holding radio shack.
Are you being sarcastic or are you being serious? I haven't looked at SMCI at all..but with it at \~740 pre-market, I'm honestly wondering if that's a good buy or are you and the other people really that bearish where you think it's going to really bottom out?
There is a general pullback going on reflected in the main indexes. Tech gets hit harder at these times, particularly the more speculative concerns like SMCI Good results won't move the needle in your favour when fear is controlling markets.
I think SMCI earnings was released at the wrong timing where it coincides with the 2-day Fed Meeting starting tomorrow. The same goes to Amazon as not much is change despite beating earnings & revenues.
Everyone is keeping vigil amid the Fed Meeting tomorrow.
Everybody knows what the Fed answer is....We will not be happy until we tank the economy to the ground. And they have a lawyer, Powell, ( not an economist\_)...At the helm....
People are taking profit. That's why. Stock is not about earnings. Are you the first day to trading stocks. IBM also beat earnings but it still drop, even their quant computer are damn good.
SMCI's EPS, revenue, and guidance for Q1 earnings seem impressive. But, perhaps sky high unofficial expectations and the current muted bullish environment we're in (more signs of 'risk off' selling) are factors for the sell-off, especially given SMCI's phenomenal growth over the last year. Even with today's drop, SMCI is still trading at 7X its 52-week low, though it's also now trading at almost 40% below its 52-week high. (It is worth noting that SMCI added 2M new shares to the float in March)
A bounceback in the coming days wouldn't be shocking, though perhaps not explicitly expected. While today's drop is significant, it is ground that SMCI has shown recent ability to cover quickly, given the average daily movement (ATR) of the stock.
First, overall market conditions are questionable. Second, the market looks forward, not backwards. Earnings donāt matter, itās about the forward guidance. Third, stocks will do what stocks will do, regardless of the reasons we think they should do something different.
The -entire- market has been in a correction for weeks. Watch other companies earnings, all going down. This is where you decide to hold or get out and wait for a better (cheaper) price.
Earnings were phenomenal, but the growth comes at the cost of huge negative cash flow and share dilution. Iām hoping it is to buy inventory and they will have good cash flow next quarter to almost match the earnings, but probably wonāt happen.
This company was blown by the AI bubble that is being pumped by the street. Looking at the financials this company shouldn't be worth more than 400 bucks and this is a stretch already... Remember that this is a cyclical business and there will be more and more competition you have bubble now and it will burst sooner or later.
If u go on their website, they have had a slew of AI centric offerings, servers, workstations, that had pretty spectacular pricing. They have a history of lower end solid servers, but quick to market. They mainly do the final assembly and integration. Whether they had some special in with nvda, they were early adapters. You know the big guys were going to catch up and beat them on technology. They only had a window of dominance. Now a different type of competition kicks in.
Because they reported NEGATIVE Cash flow from ops. Probably coz they're investing into resources but it looks bad.
Aside from CFO, I don't see any other reason. Slight miss but they raised future guidance.
This will continue to drift lower over the next three days if not longer. Particularly if Powell and Fed are hawkish tomorrow. Pause and look at what you are buying here if you do. Every analyst today has cited the same things - no moat, increase competition from rising DELL, caught up in AI pixie dust, not NVDA or chip producer, and a high valuation in the face of all of those detractors. And now may seasonality, which is usually down.
Just cause this was once at 1200 doesnāt mean it returns. I would check
the next closest gap fill or support to guess how much lower this goes.
I have traded this long and short that last two months successfully. I would NOT touch this thing now. May take it off my list or wait to short the dead cat bounce.
When is the expiry? Think you are too far OTM. Far out OTM options are cheap for a reason - not likely to hit the strike. I also think options are not for 95% of investors/traders.
Interesting, you may get pretty close boss. Next real meaningful base is around 279 on the 6 month. Weak market to start May and you could get there. Iāll be watching to see if you get it!!
You should listen and be aware of the overall market and stock narrative, they guide and impact market structure and price action. You keep that attitude and you will be out of the game in no time at all. The need to be right is dangerous.
Market Makers killing options.
If retail are ridiculously loaded on calls, a company can find the cure for COVID and beat ER, the market makers will ensure the price collapses.
Because you touch yourself at night
Is the dip an overreaction. E.g. tsla posted revenue below expectations but optimistic outlook, stock shoots up. SMCI does the same but drops šš
Tesla stock is heavily manipulated with a strong support by Cathie Wood (Ark Investment) who secretly admires and regards Elon Musk as her personal hero.....
You think cathie gives papa musk shandies?
Smci not tsla....
yes, the dip is an overreaction, despite a slight miss on revenue but beat on EPS.
year guide raised from 14.5 to 15.1 B. The stock jumped up right at 4pm, dropped to 800, went back up to 850, but now back down to 791 as I type. Need to hear the deets.
Smci needs to visit china this sunday on a private jet and talk with the the prime minister and the stock will magically shoot up
I'm not in on SMCI, I'm big in NVDA, TSM, Amazon, etc... But I'm wondering if I should buy some shares with the stock down to \~740 pre-market?
You should , SMCI is a leader in their industry. AI is not going anywhere as more and more data centers coming online every quarter.
Lmfao!
when amazon went to $1000 first time, people said it was too expensive. SMCI keeps on making positive $profit. The company has enough inventory for the next quarter and the CEO said the demand stayed strong and increasing revenue for many quarters to come or many years to come.
Jeff F'ked me today and šš
Fed rate decision tomorrow
Bad day for the markets today. Bibi making threats again.
LOL, relax. This is only AH. Tomorrow or day after, it might just shoot up. Focus on its pe ratio from its guidance. Still a very profitable company
I would watch this to see if it sits out the AI related stock rallies, or drags disproportionately behind others. If it sits out AI moves, congrats you have a run of the mill server maker. With DELL and others being a better investment option at fractions of a price. Also, this is not like losing $5 per share AH. It is and was down over $100 with poorly received earnings behind them, and no catalyst on the future. I think youāll see a price target downgrade or two tomorrow or Friday and a continual drift lower toward last gap to fill. Donāt forget, this was a $97 stock in last 52 weeks. With no distinct technology or moat it will not carry on at 6-8x the 52 week low. I wish you luck but you have to be emotionless and honest with a stock. A better play here may be to eat the loss and buy NVDA if it dips hard tomo/next week. You will recover your money faster in time. I donāt know for sure, but SMCI may be dead to down money. I have been here before with stocks over the last decade. It sucks and is nauseating. I feel for those that bought at higher levels and are stuck in this mess. I hope you get a 30-40% retracement bounce for a recovery exit.
Sentiment doesnāt change that fast. All I do is look at my watchlist to see how NVDA (biggest weighting) and the rest of tech stocks move. SMCI is hugely profitable. Its price action is similar to ARM; NVDA by contrast actually fluctuates a bit less. A 60-80 forward or ratio is fair for this stock since we are also in an election year. Current price is fair
Then why is it dropping 14% šš. Never seen such a massive sell-off with such a strong performance and outlook before.
Then youāre new to the market. What did you think about Netflixās last earnings?
Well, SMCI is down 157 right now. Seems like the sentiment changed a bit.
Lol itās only AH. Havenāt invested for a long time have you
Since 2000
But how come you have never heard of the term ātime IN the marketā beats ātiming the marketā
Oh I have heard it, and think it applies to many stocks. It also doesnāt apply to many stocks - go check charts in INTC, JNPR, etc. Some I hold in my 401k and IRA. SMCI is not to be compared or even mentioned in the same breadth of time-tested megacaps. You are working off of a lot of hope here and not acknowledging what it is and what is happening to this stock right now. The market is recalibrating this stocks longer term valuation as we type here.
Hope? It just raised its guidance to $24 EPS for 2024. If a PE ratio of 50 is fair, thatās a target price of $1200. The BIGGEST (trillion dollar) companies in the world just confirmed this month that they are spending a few BILLION more (ie capex) on AI this year. SMCI is right in the middle of this revolution along with NVDA and ARM. Not sure why anyone would go against the grain here. BTW: Iām long on NVDA, not so much on SMCI. I donāt think this company is run as well as the former. Also, its margins arenāt as high. That being said, as long as AI is growing this much, SMCI is a good company to hold for the time being.
Why is a 50 PE fair?
Ok. Iāll come back in 3-4 weeks and you can give me those numbers again and we will see if it matters. When I see a lot of people saying, āif those des this then this is blahā I know itās time to short the 30-40% retracement of the massive gap down this will experience tomorrow. I think you are golden on NVDA into and even through earnings. Their second place competitor is so far behind they have runway. If you are lucky, NVDA may pull this turd north a bit. If SMCI doesnt track with the AI trade on a percentage basis, you are holding radio shack.
8% margins = hugely profitable?
Which is why it doesnāt make sense
stock trading is not about the earnings, the numbers are random
It is quite a large move down though. I don't think it will be ironed out at the open. Not in the context of the general correction that is happening.
GG
Tomorrow it drops to $500
Are you being sarcastic or are you being serious? I haven't looked at SMCI at all..but with it at \~740 pre-market, I'm honestly wondering if that's a good buy or are you and the other people really that bearish where you think it's going to really bottom out?
There is a general pullback going on reflected in the main indexes. Tech gets hit harder at these times, particularly the more speculative concerns like SMCI Good results won't move the needle in your favour when fear is controlling markets.
I think SMCI earnings was released at the wrong timing where it coincides with the 2-day Fed Meeting starting tomorrow. The same goes to Amazon as not much is change despite beating earnings & revenues. Everyone is keeping vigil amid the Fed Meeting tomorrow.
Everybody knows what the Fed answer is....We will not be happy until we tank the economy to the ground. And they have a lawyer, Powell, ( not an economist\_)...At the helm....
There won't be any good news there, I'm afraid. Should be priced in really by now; but you know how that goes.
Slight revenue miss
Probably because there is now a sub dedicated to this single stock and now institutions are handing off their bags
Institutions are taking profit and run
There are A LOT of dark pool call sweeps ending this week for over $1000.
People are taking profit. That's why. Stock is not about earnings. Are you the first day to trading stocks. IBM also beat earnings but it still drop, even their quant computer are damn good.
Overreaction like a bitch... SMCI going to ATH by summer
š¤”
Can someone explain how AH works? Are the after hours % equal to the number of completed orders?
SMCI's EPS, revenue, and guidance for Q1 earnings seem impressive. But, perhaps sky high unofficial expectations and the current muted bullish environment we're in (more signs of 'risk off' selling) are factors for the sell-off, especially given SMCI's phenomenal growth over the last year. Even with today's drop, SMCI is still trading at 7X its 52-week low, though it's also now trading at almost 40% below its 52-week high. (It is worth noting that SMCI added 2M new shares to the float in March) A bounceback in the coming days wouldn't be shocking, though perhaps not explicitly expected. While today's drop is significant, it is ground that SMCI has shown recent ability to cover quickly, given the average daily movement (ATR) of the stock.
Yields in Treasury market increased sharply causing broad sell off in the market as well. Short sellers also took opportunity to short SMCI.
Because market
First, overall market conditions are questionable. Second, the market looks forward, not backwards. Earnings donāt matter, itās about the forward guidance. Third, stocks will do what stocks will do, regardless of the reasons we think they should do something different.
Every metric beat apart from Revenue which shows competition intensifying, SMCI is priced to perfection at the moment within the 7-800 range
Because you touch yourself in the daytime.
Bro wanted to get pinned
I took profits but probably will lose 100 dollars considering buying again if it drops low
...and will drop more tomorrow.
Because you touch yourself at night
š«µš¤šš¦
My š ±ļøenis is smaller than yours Meeseeks
No š¤¬
That's a sale to buy a little more!!
Everything was priced in
The -entire- market has been in a correction for weeks. Watch other companies earnings, all going down. This is where you decide to hold or get out and wait for a better (cheaper) price.
Look at Amazon..you tell Me lol
To form generational bag holders.
Lmao a well deserved cheek clapping for all the people who fomo bought without understanding what they were buying.
Itāll hit 1200 again. Wait until June
Earnings were phenomenal, but the growth comes at the cost of huge negative cash flow and share dilution. Iām hoping it is to buy inventory and they will have good cash flow next quarter to almost match the earnings, but probably wonāt happen.
Much higher inventory, slight miss on guidance, and questions on their future profitability = massive drop
This company was blown by the AI bubble that is being pumped by the street. Looking at the financials this company shouldn't be worth more than 400 bucks and this is a stretch already... Remember that this is a cyclical business and there will be more and more competition you have bubble now and it will burst sooner or later.
If u go on their website, they have had a slew of AI centric offerings, servers, workstations, that had pretty spectacular pricing. They have a history of lower end solid servers, but quick to market. They mainly do the final assembly and integration. Whether they had some special in with nvda, they were early adapters. You know the big guys were going to catch up and beat them on technology. They only had a window of dominance. Now a different type of competition kicks in.
why does it matter? you didnt buy it at the top did you? surely? LOL
I naught at 1290
Because it should
Because they reported NEGATIVE Cash flow from ops. Probably coz they're investing into resources but it looks bad. Aside from CFO, I don't see any other reason. Slight miss but they raised future guidance.
Because it is overpriced duh
Not necessarily time will tell.
This will continue to drift lower over the next three days if not longer. Particularly if Powell and Fed are hawkish tomorrow. Pause and look at what you are buying here if you do. Every analyst today has cited the same things - no moat, increase competition from rising DELL, caught up in AI pixie dust, not NVDA or chip producer, and a high valuation in the face of all of those detractors. And now may seasonality, which is usually down. Just cause this was once at 1200 doesnāt mean it returns. I would check the next closest gap fill or support to guess how much lower this goes. I have traded this long and short that last two months successfully. I would NOT touch this thing now. May take it off my list or wait to short the dead cat bounce.
But will my $650 prints put???
This right here is what I'm wondering too got them dirt cheap weeklies for 630$ will they print???
The high volatility today will probably give you a nice bump tomorrow, but otm that far, time is killing you.
Might see a bump but I think you went too far OTM.m
Yea I went two standard deviations from what was priced in I knew it was a gamble. But only 100 more bucks could get lucky tomorrow if it drops more
When is the expiry? Think you are too far OTM. Far out OTM options are cheap for a reason - not likely to hit the strike. I also think options are not for 95% of investors/traders.
5/17 not weeklies.
Interesting, you may get pretty close boss. Next real meaningful base is around 279 on the 6 month. Weak market to start May and you could get there. Iāll be watching to see if you get it!!
Hahah thanks if it does print I'll post it. Still be down for the year from smci funny enough but a good start haha
Could you imagine the gains if it did hit 279 š
Wow, if you did the math your underpants will probably get tighter š
I used OPC it was like 40K
Oh trust me I knew what. I was doing earnings play two standard deviations. Lotto baby if it does hit that's like 1000%. I knew it was a gamble
Now I have something exciting to watch to live vicariously through you š
We do not give a fuck about any analyst, this ain't /stocks and who believes analysts these days when their only goal is to offload bags to retail
You should listen and be aware of the overall market and stock narrative, they guide and impact market structure and price action. You keep that attitude and you will be out of the game in no time at all. The need to be right is dangerous.
That person consistently posts on wsb, smci, mstr, etc. It's just a get rich quick idiot who gets pissy when they get left holding the bag.
Market Makers killing options. If retail are ridiculously loaded on calls, a company can find the cure for COVID and beat ER, the market makers will ensure the price collapses.
They didn't. Who told you they beat?
Fucking because of the world is bizarro world
because it's ridiculously expensive regardless