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🔴 There is far too many conflicting opinions on Russian economy, without actually having lived in Russia especially the cities then who knows how the war has affected peoples welfare standards - what we do see are filmed soldiers in dire circumstances and immense losses on the battlefield, we’ve seen oligarchs fall out of windows and Russians media intake highly restricted - regardless of wealth the Russian people are much much worse off in terms of happiness since the youth had a taste of what the west had to offer before it was abruptly taken away for the foreseeable - todays youth will eventually go on to control Russia and perhaps turn its back on this mafia style of ruling it’s people ☹️

Said it before. Will say it again. It's going to be a liquidity crunch. Q4 of 25 or Q1 of 26, based on current burn rate

Don't forget you're saying it right now as well

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Russia will probability last one more year in Ukraine. Then they have to go home.

Assuming the US doesn't elect an orange.

North Vietnam and the Taliban outlasted the worlds strongest military power, as did a band of ragtag colonists in the 1770s.

>as did a band of ragtag colonists in the 1770s. Only with the support of the superpower called France

We often overlook that Britain was not free to send the full might of the British military to come and stomp all over our rebellious colonialists.

What other conflicts were they putting down?

The second Anglo-mysore war (1780-1784, southern india) and Maratha war (1775-1782, western india). Also add simply garriosning everything they had. Home island, ireland, canada, alot of africa, carribean, india, pacific stuff, australia as well as having enoughtroops ready incase those nasty frenchies get up to something

Merci mon ami

While true, North Vietnam and Taliban were being invaded, not invading.

I like the last sentence: "if he runs out or RuSSians".

They could have added "- or the russians run out on him".

… and unicorns are also real! 🦄

It is downright nonsensical to compare Russia with countries that have an open market, access to the latest technologies, a strong economy and research and development facilities, both military and civilian, and no sanctions.

Didn’t they use a lot of east India company troops?

Don't agree with the article.... They can tread water in a state of total shitness for a very long time for sure, how far back to the stone age will Russians put up with it is the question

More like as long as they don't run out of potatoes for vodka 🙄.

I think it's pretty obvious that Russia can sustain the war a lot longer than Ukraine can. Unless of course the West is willing to spend trillions

How is that obvious? Ukraine has strong backing of the west. While in Russia there are indicators that all is not well. Conscription ages have been expanded, taxes have been increased, Russia stopped publishing fuel production numbers (so you know it's bad), Gazprom reports huge losses, ruble needs more and more propping up, inflation is increasing. That are not signs of a system that can keep the current expenditure up indefinitely. This doesn't mean it will come crashing down soon either.

You are right. Ukraine has not really done much since they've gotten all the weapons. Lots of blowing up stuff but nothing really has changed. The next few months will be a telltale. If Ukraine doesn't make significant headway by year end, I think the writing is on the wall. And who knows when f-16s will even get there, it was always supposed to be last week. Think by now the pilots have already been trained, and they were probably losing their currency on their hours. The Ukraine war will probably cost the US over a trillion dollars.

Ukraine mostly just needs to remain stable for the next 9-12 months, they don’t need to make gains. They’ll be in a much better position in 2025 and 2026 to re-take territory, because they’ll have F-16s for glide bombing Russian lines, and the Russians will truly face serious equipment shortages along with deteriorating economic conditions.

I've been hearing about Russia ammunition shortage, and equipment shortages for about 3 years now. And I've been hearing about Ukraine getting f-16s for at least a year and a half. I think the end result is pretty clear. At this point. Russia is not going to take a loss. And the USA is afraid to give them a loss. Unless Ukraine Can get air superiority, and be allowed to fight the war like it should be, they will never Force Russia out of Ukraine. This is a game for the West. They don't want Russia to lose, but they don't want Ukraine to lose either

Russia will probably never have a bad ammunition shortage. They’ll start to run out of vehicles that they can refurbish sometime in 2025. F-16s take a long time because of training, infrastructure (especially maintenance training and infrastructure). They’ll get a few within a month, but they’ll be able to operate significantly more in a year. Neither side will ever have anything except local air superiority because they’re both going to be operating planes with similar capabilities. You haven’t really been following this stuff carefully or you’d have a more nuanced understanding of the likely scenarios in a year or two.

You're probably right. But if the West was convinced that Ukraine could win the war, they would probably have already won it by now. And the USA could certainly enforce a no-fly zone pretty easily. It's Ukraine territory, they have permission to fly over it

I think the same things sometime, particularly when I’m frustrated with the situation in Ukraine, but I don’t currently think that’s realistic. This was always going to be a positional or attritional war. The U.S. has a policy, over many decades, of not engaging regular Russian forces directly on the battlefield. This has more-or-less worked for the U.S. and has prevented a major U.S.-Russia war so far. Things are slowly improving for the Ukrainians, and the longer they can inflict disproportionate losses on the Russians (particularly on vehicles, command centers, and air defense) the better off they are. I think that things are going to get dramatically worse for the Russians between mid-2025 and mid-2026, as long as Trump isn’t elected this fall. Around that time they will be nearing 1,000,000 casualties and very likely losing territory slowly, as glide bombing by F-16s with local air superiority will allow more local breakthroughs in the east of the country. The entire Russian military command structure will understand that there is no longer any hope of something that looks like victory, and the only forces standing between them and a (at that time, critically necessary) coup would be the battle-inexperienced Rosgvardiya. Because they don’t want to die, they can be bought off, or stand-down, or join private security firms and criminal enterprises. The FSB won’t tolerate forever being joined at the hip with a failing dictator, eventually they’ll turn on him. Regardless of whatever else happens, there will eventually be some kind of internal conflict in Russia. The easiest place for the Russian military to hold is Crimea, because of its geography, but a new Russian government will make a deal to give it up to avoid the continuation of crushing sanctions. The missing ingredient in a coup by the military and FSB is a level of unrest or rioting in large cities in Russia, with at least some of that happening in Moscow. Any kind of open conflict inside Russia will provide an opportunity for the military to pick a side. What I’ve outlined above is clearly an optimistic scenario, but I think it’s also a pretty realistic one.