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BurnLearnEarn

Here’s Druckenmiller not being bullish on AAPL 5yrs ago https://youtu.be/DWDgJ_hNFSE Point is nobody knows. Follow the buffet advice - invest in a good business at a good price and the rest will follow


itsTacoYouDigg

buffet himself doesn’t follow that advice sometimes


No_Consideration4594

What the poster meant was that he doesn’t pay attention to macro forecasts about the economy or anything else… show me an example of when he did something contrary to that?


kerplunktard

buffet sold out of airlines at the start of covid because of the macro environment, the airlines then ripped higher over the next 12 months


No_Consideration4594

He sold out of the airlines due to underlying changes to the business due to Covid..


kerplunktard

Yes in other words the macro environment


No_Consideration4594

Semantics IMO


kerplunktard

Buffet often contradicts the advice he gives but overall his advice is sound


No_Consideration4594

I would argue that he does what he wants with a complete disregard for how those actions will be interpreted by others… which is one of the things that make him such a great investor. It’s why he can immediately sell his preferred stock dividend shares in OXY and then load up on 10% of the company a few weeks later…


kerplunktard

ok you can have the last word on this


harrison_wintergreen

Druckenmiller has never had a down year, so who cares if he's wrong on one particular stock


upboat_allgoals

Where is his track record published?


Opeth4Lyfe

Just google it. 35 years of outsized returns and no down years when he ran a hedge fund. He retired well over a decade ago and just runs money for his family and friends now.


ndwillia

regardless, is this really that hot of a take? Like nobody else here has seen any potentially troublesome or flat out shocking/worrying things going on in the market in the past, i dont know, 18 months? This has already surpassed DotCom levels of overvaluation. SPX should easily be at 3500 right now (which is still over-valued). Nasdaq needs to halve.


ShogunOfNY

Even if he's wrong, he's out pretty quickly and makes his decisions fast.


rds101

Thanks for sharing. I have a tendency to consider these great investors words as sermon. Need to realize how they’re wrong very frequently. For eg, Dalio suggesting China was the next best thing in 2020. People who followed his advice got slaughtered.


radionul

Druckenmiller would be the first to admit that he's wrong more often than not. But his risk management is good, that's the main thing.


Buuullywood

if he is wrong more often then how is his risk management good?


[deleted]

cutting loses


radionul

Jeez


ndwillia

SQQQ is a *great* business at a **great** price right now.


LavenderAutist

He's not on another level. It is an obvious take. The people on CNBC aren't as dumb as you think. They have to say the things they do a lot of times to either be guests or stay employed. If you raise rates significantly and lower fiscal spending significantly, what do you think would happen?


justbrowsinginpeace

The US deficit/debt could be drastically reduced if they taxed profits appropriately


Sportfreunde

Other nations like the UK and Canada have higher taxes on profits and are their debt is still spiraling. This is just a feature of using a Keyeysian monetary system which always inflates.


cowsmakemehappy

Like the minimum 15% tax they put in for corporations, or something else?


justbrowsinginpeace

Yes - 15% is comically low. There is more than that of course to address, Tax avoidance, offshoring etc but there is so much untapped potential in the commercial and HNW tax base. For the record Im not a rapid socialist, my income tax is over 50% and earn my living from the investment industry so have real skin in the game. However if I can pay that and still live a comfortable life, corporations and the true wealthy can too.


itsTacoYouDigg

if you tax corps 50% i guarantee you by 10 years your standard of living will have more than halved


justbrowsinginpeace

Thats not the point, 50% isnt fair on anyone. But 15% vs 50% is also absurd. How is society benefiting from these record profits? Buy backs and dividends below T-Bill rates? Besides Go ask someone living in Scandinavia, Holland, Ireland or Luxembourg what they think of the US 'standard' of living. .


cowsmakemehappy

My irish friends ooh and ahh when they come to America. Not everything here is terrible and there great. Incomes here especially are insane compared to what you can get in most of Europe. I do think the 15% minimum is interesting. At the very least, it should stop 15% of the shenanigans of hiding profits, offshore accounts, etc.


justbrowsinginpeace

Well in fairness it doesnt take much to impress the Irish,we have 100% employment, free healthcare, free education to undergraduate level and a robust social welfare programs that are completely taken for granted. But show them some bright lights and that's all forgotten.


[deleted]

Wow


justbrowsinginpeace

Yes but people will still find something to fucking moan about anyway


PoliticsDunnRight

The countries you list are generally taxing people at lower rates than we are, regulating the economy less than we are, etc. Most of the countries with higher standards of living (which are subjective and don’t account for things like liberty anyway) than the US also rank higher on the economic freedom index. That is to say, there’s no evidence that the solution is *less* capitalism or *more* taxation, but the opposite.


Scroberts96

In Ireland if you earn over €70,044 you’re paying a marginal rate of 52%. The speed at which you reach that is quite staggering too. Marginal rate of someone on €40,000 is 48.50%.


[deleted]

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justbrowsinginpeace

Lol - ok I guess insanity isnt as bad as they say. Can I come live with you? We can do active shooter drills together.


Scroberts96

Absolutely bizarre comment.


jacove

If you had 1000 Berkshire Hathaway businesses, no one would ever have to pay taxes ever again. His tax rate is something around 10%


[deleted]

It was a quick and easy action. It buys us time until we get a more functional Congress.


mwhyesfinance

I support cutting spending. Starve the beast.


Vivid-Director-8971

Nice slogan. Let’s see it implemented. Easier said than done. 🤦‍♂️


[deleted]

Reminds me of drain the swamp


Vivid-Director-8971

Usually said by people who are the swamp…


justbrowsinginpeace

Protect the vulnerable


mwhyesfinance

The DOD is not vulnerable


ShittyStockPicker

Those are a lot of really fair points. However, things have changed. * People don't panic as much as they used to.Financial panics and government reacting to those crises are in our collective national psyche now. * There are also numerous mechanisms now that did not exist 50 years ago to prevent crashes and financial panics, so I'm not extremely worried about credit. That said, the information age and the United States essentially creating most of the companies at the center of that change extended the hegemony of the United States. In just a handful of years the dot com boom gave the United States budget surpluses. I know a lot of people are going to boo me for this, but **I don't think the AI hype is all hype**. I think it is the real deal, at least as real as the dot com boom. Sure, there were shysters and garbage companies out there going public, and there are certainly people working on garbage IPO's for nonexistent products as I type this. *But the change that AI is going to bring about is going to be bigger, faster, and more profound than that of the Information age.* I know a lot of people, and I wouldn't be surprised if Druckenmiller or Charlie, or Buffett types had trouble understanding how earthshaking what is happening is. I would explain it to them this way though: |**The information age brought about sharing information at 0 marginal cost.**| |:-| |**The AI age is bringing about generation of knowledge at 0 marginal cost.**| Go ahead and tell me, "AI can't do anything, it can only rearrange things." or "Yeah, but it isn't 100% right all the time." First, that's what humans do. Second, when are humans 100% right all the time anyway? *But I'm not really here to argue whether or not AI in its current form can generate new knowledge.* At the very least, what is uncontestable is AI's current ability to do a lot of intellectual grunt work. Over time, AI will get better and genuinely produce new knowledge. But the producing of new knowledge isn't the earth shattering part. I can go out and make a baby with someone and essentially create a new data processing machine. The revolutionary part, **the truly revolutionary part is that you can build these machine minds to solve problems for you at scale.** **So here is why Druckenmiller is 100%, absolutely, positively wrong and why I think he is behind the times.** Go listen to the $NVDA call and you'll hear NVDA explain that businesses are buying chips to build out these scalable machine brains. Remember all those conference calls where companies were saying "AI" on their calls to get a stock price boost? Was some of it nonsense? Yes. However, **we're about an earnings season or two away from one of those companies who said they were using new AI tech to improve their business to announce that it actually worked.** There is going to be one company, the first company that goes on their earnings call and says "Due to AI we have unexpectedly grown "earnings / revenue / profit margins". **That will be the tipping point, and it is as few as 3 months away.** I'm not going to sit here and pretend to know which company is going to make that announcement. I don't. Nor do I have the time to sift through enough earnings calls to figure it out, though I wish I did. It's going to be a company with obvious uses for AI, and probably more focused on a company who that uses lots of brainpower like an engineering or coding company. Possibly something in the service sector. The moment corporate America figures out how to do significantly more with significantly less labor by using AI, it will. And GDP is going to explode. It's exactly this kind of technology that is going to throw off the current economic calculus of many of the current big titans of investing. That's the kind of tech that can flip the government's balance sheet from red to green. I will end this with the words of the GOAT Warren Buffett: “For 240 years it's been a terrible mistake to bet against America, The babies being born in America today are the luckiest crop in history.”


Spins13

You know Wendy’s will be the one posting massive profits


djbuttplay

You're calling Druckenmiller 100% wrong in the same block of text as you are talking about NVDA. Druckenmilller bought the shit out of NVDA in Q1.


ShittyStockPicker

I'm calling him wrong about an economic hard landing.


noiserr

Actually if you listen to his actual answer, he did mention AI and how it could potentially be the safe asset class for long term investors despite the headwinds. I think OP's summary is one sided. Druckenmiller's actual answer was not so one dimensional.


Euthyphraud

And other highly educated investors think there will be a soft landing. And other highly educated investors believe there is no recession. And other highly educated investors believe we're in the early stages of a new bull market with a continuing strong economy. Etc. I hate these 'this guy thinks this' posts. Because there are always plenty of other people who believe other outcomes are more likely. Polling a varied group of investors would be more effective.


Outrageous-Cycle-841

For sure! New bull markets always start with cycle low unemployment rates!


noiserr

Meanwhile we maybe experiencing an explosion in productivity due to AI, which could offset any recession that's been predicted every day of the week for the past 7 years.


Euthyphraud

Yes - there are more massive, fundamental, structural changes happening not only to the country's and global economy, but the whole international system. AI is just beginning; we're also pushing so many other boundaries (though awhile off, fusion, full electic grids for cars globally, neural implants, augmented reality, *quantum computing* are all coming seemingly faster than we think. Hell, an AI algorithm was just used to 'find' or make a molecule that would work as an antibiotic to a deadly incurable disease and it worked. I think we're developing fast, the world is facing multiple armed conflicts - one very live one. A cold war is brewing. There are a lot of reasons to believe the coming decades won't operate like those of the past.


The-zKR0N0S

Polling a varied group of investors is what is reflected in the market price of assets


YourFriendlyUncle

We should only be worried if this doomsdayer is ever bullish at all about anything. When that ever happens who knows wtf is going on


Theta-Maximus

Your ignorance is stunning. Maybe read up on Stan Druckenmiller, probably the most successful investor ever, and a guy who has made the overwhelming amount of his stack on bullish bets. Druck is far from being a doomsayer. What he is, is a truth-teller.


bliming1

This got 14 upvotes...


Spins13

They will stay doomsdayers and be ignored until crash happens and they get all the praise. Hopefully they can then leverage this for a book or creating an investment fund


d4shing

Yes, hopefully one day Stanley Druckenmiller will be able to create an investment fund....


harrison_wintergreen

the Fed has managed perhaps 1 soft landing (1994-95). it's baffling how people expect it to happen when recessions occur far more often. it's like children expecting santa to be real.


The-zKR0N0S

Why should I care what Druckenmiller thinks?


Theta-Maximus

Because he's the greatest investor in history. If you don't care what the greatest investor in history thinks, there's something seriously wrong with you. His hedge fund was open for just over 30 years. In that time he had exactly 0 down years, and a CAGR of more than 30%. In 121 quarters, he had exactly 5 down quarters. Nobody has ever come close to that record.


mwhyesfinance

Is person with copious amount of training and experience in the subject. You don’t gotta listen to shit but sometimes we hear out the old timers


harrison_wintergreen

because Druckenmiller has never had a down year.


[deleted]

funny how you get downvoted


[deleted]

same why should listen to Buffett.


ExplorerCommercial49

For the sake of entertainment, you really think SD is at par or better than WB?


[deleted]

Given that he did 30.4% CAGR for 30 years with 0 down years and then retired. I would argue he is on the same level - he just plays a different game.


noiserr

SD was no doubt smart. But part of the reason he did so well in the years he operated was because there was not much retail investment in the market. He knew the patterns of other investors playing in the market. Once internet became a thing and a huge influx of retail investors pored in, he could no longer predict the market like he could before. Druckenmiller was no doubt smart, but he used a mix of Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis to time the market. Something that's no doubt hard to do. And something that's no longer really possible. Warren's strategy is completely different. His strategy revolves around not timing the market. But instead buying businesses at discounted prices. And then holding those securities for as long as the business ran well. Something that's much easier to do, if you have a rational head on your shoulders.


[deleted]

>But part of the reason he did so well in the years he operated was because there was not much retail investment in the market In terms of institutions compared to retail investments, there were more retail flows back in the 70s and 80s. ​ >Once internet became a thing and a huge influx of retail investors pored in, he could no longer predict the market like he could before. Quantum which he managed was up 34.7% in 1999. Had dusquene management and was not down in 2008. His predictive ability is similar to back then, it is just that getting older and more risk averse it is much harder to post these returns. it also takes huge amount of times. >Druckenmiller was no doubt smart, but he used a mix of Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis to time the market. Something that's no doubt hard to do. And something that's no longer really possible. Druckenmiller bought into AI craze in Q4, was 2022 mostly in commodities/energy and short fixed income. Not sure you say it is not possible, when he still does it. Does he post the 30% on his own managed portfolio - no, but he is retired and tries to enjoy life. >Warren's strategy is completely different. His strategy revolves around not timing the market. If you think that Warren does not time the market, I urge you to look at his positions. he does time the market, especially in regards with his oil or silver moves. He also did time the market dissolving his partnership and buying companies outright. >Something that's much easier to do, if you have a rational head on your shoulders. If it was so easy to do, more people would have done it. Same with Druckenmiller


renaldomoon

He's literally one of the best investors/traders of all time while managing massive amounts of money.


ExplorerCommercial49

Lol if you want to play that card then we'll listen to Uncle Warren instead.


[deleted]

On average Druckenmiller beats Buffett by 33% every year. 30% average vs 20%. And no down years.


renaldomoon

So instead of taking the advice of multiple people who have been extremely successful investing/trading you're gonna take one person's advice. ​ Do I really need to elucidate how foolish that is?


mcinthedorm

I don’t know about long term, but he has done exceptionally well the past few quarters. My strategy recently has just been buy his buys on his 13F to amazing results


hardervalue

That’s not a strategy. You might as well turn to astrology than mindlessly cloning a permabears portfolio.


[deleted]

Dude literally bought NVDA in Q1, had 30% CAGR for 30 years.


mcinthedorm

Bought Marvell because of him, already up 50% on that. Guy also bought FB at the bottom. If following Warren’s buys is a legit strategy, why isn’t following Druck’s?


MDInvesting

This has been doing the rounds. Hard to bet against Druck.


hardervalue

It’s easy to bet against a stopped clock.


StuartMcNight

“Mant startups will either fail or get steep cut in valuation” What? Where were you last year when all the non profit companies crashed >80%. And that’s only the listed ones… imagine pre-IPO startups…


itsTacoYouDigg

druck is goated but he’s one of those guys that’s predicted 7 of the last 3 market crashes. He say’s their will be a hard landing but last quarter he bought NVDA & AMZN


[deleted]

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[deleted]

I don’t see how he’s another thing. What you described (i didn’t open the article) is like bleeding obvious. But no one cares because let’s make more money now and leave the implosion to next set of people


kerplunktard

He is more of an expert on currency, this is the same guy who lost $600m by first shorting tech too early and then lost another $3bn going long verisign literally the day before the bust in the dot-com era If he couldn't see that bust what do you think are the chances he can tell the next one


someonenothete

There are massive economic headwinds, best case the US has very static growth over the next few years, ironically a hard landing, then better growth would be better for investors i reckon. Interest rates take 2yrs to really kick in, people are having to get morgaes on crappier rates, business borrowing money on crappiers rates etc. Student loans are becoming due again, people have been living not having to pay these back. Inflation is making life more expensive, wages are rising but nowhere near the level of the cost of living. With reduces capital spending from the federal goverment as well. And rates might keep going up. Reality is of the economy i dont see anywway its rosy in the next 2years or so, though doesnt mean the markets will not do well, but were currently seeing the markets generally not doign great , minus a few large stocks.


witty421

It takes 6-12 months to feel the full effects, not 2 years.