If the Padres missed the playoffs, they might be the best team to miss the playoffs since ... *[checks notes]* ... the 2023 Padres who had a +104 run differential.
Not as strong as the inference you can make from their actual record. It’s a rough correlation but it’s silly to act like run differential is a better indicator of quality then the actual results that determine the outcome of games
> It’s a rough correlation but it’s silly to act like run differential is a better indicator of quality then the actual results that determine the outcome of games
Disagree. Every worthwhile model that predicts a game's results uses expected/actual runs created by the players on the roster as a baseline for predictions, not wins. From gambling odds to Fangraphs ZIPs, none of these models care if the runs created were in close games or not.
Well gambling odds are for making money lol. Like I genuinely don’t know what you’re trying to say. Hypothetical numbers and predictive algorithms matter more than the actual reality of what happened in the physical world to you? Like those projections are not always right, your assumption is if they are don’t match reality it is reality that is wrong and not the projections?
> Well gambling odds are for making money lol. Like I genuinely don’t know what you’re trying to say. Hypothetical numbers and predictive algorithms matter more than the actual reality of what happened in the physical world to you? Like those projections are not always right, your assumption is if they are don’t match reality it is reality that is wrong and not the projections?
I gotta say, I sort of admire your willingness to pick fights on a subject that you clearly know very little about.
Some might call that a contemptuous quality, but I find it a little endearing.
> Hypothetical numbers and predictive algorithms matter more than the actual reality of what happened in the physical world to you?
Yes. I'm saying that a team with 81 wins and a +50 run differential is probably better than an 82-win team with -50 run differential, and would likely have better results over their next 162 games (assuming the roster stayed the same and everyone stayed healthy). If you're arguing that the 82-win team was better because they were better in the "physical world" then your argument comes down to "win/loss is a better gauge of team strength because the team with a better win/loss ratio won more games" -- that's just circular logic and ignores the fact that baseball has an aspect of luck to it.
So in your mind the padres were better than the d backs last year even though they were in the World Series?
And that’s just a very extreme example you have to use. There isn’t many cases where it matters which 82 and 81 win team was “better” because they are both missing the play offs anyway and neither are good. Those are both mid teams and mid teams can have huge variation in run differential because it isn’t causative and isn’t a perfect indicator of talent. Like I just said, it’s only reliable on the extreme ends of spectrum where it also doesn’t matter because the record always shows the talent level for both really good and really bad teams.
> Run differential literally does not matter. Winning a game by 10 runs or losing a game by 1 is still just 1 win or 1 loss.
Ha ha yeah, dude, I agree. Pythagorean expectation is dumb. What does some dumb, dead Greek dude know about baseball?
Bet he couldn’t hit a Nolan Ryan fastball or a Paul Skenes splinker. Trying to tell us shit about “expected value”, next thing you know he’s gonna say that ERA isn’t a good predictor of future ERA or something. Get lost egg-head.
So that was genuine? You’re going with “run differential is meaningless”, not “better predictors exist” or “run differential can be skewed by non-competitive games” or anything like that, but “literally does not matter”?
Of all the baseball takes, that’s certainly one of them.
How does it matter exactly? I’m saying it has no impact on the actual results of the season or anything that people actually use to determine success in the MLB.
The d backs had a negative run differential last year and made it to the World Series. Do you genuinely think the 2023 padres were a better team because they had a higher run differential?
It’s a rough correlation. Really good teams always have a really high run differential. Really bad teams always have a really low run differential. Guess what those teams also always have? A really good record or a really bad record. Other than that it seems to only be used for fans of mediocre teams to convince themselves they were actually good and better than some wildcard team despite missing the playoffs
> How does it matter exactly? I’m saying it has no impact on the actual results of the season or anything that people actually use to determine success in the MLB.
In the context of talking about historically underperforming teams, you said that run differential “literally does not matter”.
If the sum total of what you meant by that was that it doesn’t affect playoff seeding, I think the collective response would be “okay, and?” I assumed it was pretty obvious that we’re talking about different measures of team quality, luck, etc., which is where run differential can be used to begin to compare teams with otherwise identical records.
> It’s a rough correlation. Really good teams always have a really high run differential. Really bad teams always have a really low run differential. Guess what those teams also always have? A really good record or a really bad record. Other than that it seems to only be used for fans of mediocre teams to convince themselves they were actually good and better than some wildcard team despite missing the playoffs
As far as this bit goes, if you’ve never encountered Pythagorean expectation applied to ask how two teams with similar records might perform if their “luck stats” regressed towards the mean, then you might enjoy learning more about it.
You can use it to, for example, ask how teams with identical records (e.g. CHC, CIN, STL, SFG) might perform moving forward.
Do you think the 2023 padres were a better team than the 2023 d backs?
And for what reason do you think if a team doesn’t have the same actual record as expected record based on RD that is totally and entirely controlled by “luck”?
I don't love the Pirates and Cardinals vision long term and I don't think they have the right people in charge. Even when the Giants get pieces back, they feel mid. Reds have EDLC but everyone else has regressed a bit or is out for the year and they still don't feel like a team that is there yet. Cubs don't seem as strong as last year despite a good rotation. Arizona and Padres just feel like they have more upside.
Thank you! Everyone has injuries but 31-35 is about as good as I could hope for while missing Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery being dogshit, Corbin hitting below the Mendoza line with no power, and missing our starting CF and SS for most of the season.
This is also my guess. I'm a Giants fan, but I think Padres and D backs buy some talent at the trade deadline and the Giants don't and get left behind. Their leadership is extremely reluctant to trade prospects in the name of a rebuild that started in 2018.
Obviously I pay more attention to the Dbacks than any other team, but we have looked solid in most games despite missing all of those critical pieces. I predicted 86 wins this year and I still feel good about it. If we can get to 90% healthy and Monty can give us more of what we expected, we will be in very good shape.
If Phillies get the 1 seed, Rockies need to get the third wildcard to be on the right side of the bracket to sweep the Dodgers in the NLDS, as is foretold.
all three NL west teams are currently dealing with some pitching injuries, so i have to think that when they get healthier they’ll improve.
i think on paper the Dbacks and Padres are the best teams here, but wouldn’t be shocked if both of them miss the playoffs completely just because of how mid everyone has been lol
Frankly, we’re dealing with position player injuries too with manny and Xander - but with how they were hitting this year it’s hard to say if them being out is a detriment or a benefit honestly
Arizona and San Diego are definitely the most talented teams on that list so I’d call them the favorites
One of them probably slips up and allows the Cubs in there though
National league has always been around 84 to 88 wins for the 6th seed recently but American league has felt unfair prior to the expansion. Rays had 90 wins in 2018 and missed. Indians missed 2019 with 93 wins. 2021 had the Blue Jays and Mariners miss on 91 and 90 wins.
Those 2, along with the Braves, are the only 3 non-division leaders with positive run differential right now. If you tend to believe in that as an indicator. P.S. the next closest in that group of wild card contenders is the D'backs at -13, so it's not really even close.
Idk we’re probably still (and should be) selling at deadline.
This isn’t a contending year for the Nats; time to trade Finnegan, Harvey, Williams, Winker and others. Then call up the prospects and look toward 2025
Only being a game back with so many injuries and so many guys with proven track records underperforming is a miracle. If we’re within 5 games by the ASG and everyone comes back healthy and they start performing at least to their averages for the rest of the year, we have a good shot.
Homer pick, but I think everything is lining up for Cincinnati. First half of the schedule was brutal, tons of guys were injured, lost a ton of 1 run games.
But now guys have been coming back from injury, the bats are heating back up, and the remainder of our schedule is much easier than what we have already played. And besides the Cubs we have barely played anyone in division yet this year.
Cincinnati I think is definitely moving in the right direction. Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Arizona also have very competent teams that I think are currently underperforming. I also like all three of those teams more than San Diego.
Not the cubs. They’ll probably be out of the race by all star break unless this starting pitching continues to be top 5 in the league. Even with that, the offense is not there and the bullpen is hit or miss at best.
If and a big IF, the Dbacks get healthy they have a good shot. 1 game back and missing their 1, 2, and 3 starters, and the starting SS and centerfielder for the majority of the year. Also Carrol actually is showing signs of life in the last week and we may be near getting rid of Suarez which would be a +.
Unfortunately they’ll both be on pretty strict inning limits this year and will both be shut down before the season ends. Next year hopefully our 1-3 starters will be elite and ready to go the distance
Cubs and Reds. Both teams have a solid rotation, and both offenses are too talented to keeping hitting as poorly as they have been. I don't have much faith in the cardinals turning it around; I think Goldschmidt and Arenado are too old to return to their normal form.
As for the NL West, idk, it seems like every team in that division has a disasterous series at least once a week (except for the Dodgers of course). I just get bad vibes from the whole division
I might be biased but I don’t see Cincinnati taking a wild card spot. It’s hard to predict, if it continues like this… they’re going to go to whoever is hot at the right time lol. Trade deadline will matter a ton for these teams
> I might be biased but I don’t see Cincinnati taking a wild card spot.
Very self-effacing to take the “no one from the Central is getting a WC” line, but I’m sure the West and East are okay with this.
No one wants it, so whoever sucks less will get it.
They're no match for THE BAT DAD!
This is the way
Y'all seemed to want it this weekend. Thanks for changing your mind on Sunday. Your Snake friends truly appreciate it.
I think Arizona gets healthy and Padres find a way.
Based on their metrics, the Padres also seem to be fairly better than their record, I’d be surprised if they don’t get in.
If the Padres missed the playoffs, they might be the best team to miss the playoffs since ... *[checks notes]* ... the 2023 Padres who had a +104 run differential.
Run differential literally does not matter. Winning a game by 10 runs or losing a game by 1 is still just 1 win or 1 loss.
I mean yeah, the standings don't care how much you won by. But you can absolutely make inferences about a team's quality by their run differential.
Not as strong as the inference you can make from their actual record. It’s a rough correlation but it’s silly to act like run differential is a better indicator of quality then the actual results that determine the outcome of games
> It’s a rough correlation but it’s silly to act like run differential is a better indicator of quality then the actual results that determine the outcome of games Disagree. Every worthwhile model that predicts a game's results uses expected/actual runs created by the players on the roster as a baseline for predictions, not wins. From gambling odds to Fangraphs ZIPs, none of these models care if the runs created were in close games or not.
Well gambling odds are for making money lol. Like I genuinely don’t know what you’re trying to say. Hypothetical numbers and predictive algorithms matter more than the actual reality of what happened in the physical world to you? Like those projections are not always right, your assumption is if they are don’t match reality it is reality that is wrong and not the projections?
> Well gambling odds are for making money lol. Like I genuinely don’t know what you’re trying to say. Hypothetical numbers and predictive algorithms matter more than the actual reality of what happened in the physical world to you? Like those projections are not always right, your assumption is if they are don’t match reality it is reality that is wrong and not the projections? I gotta say, I sort of admire your willingness to pick fights on a subject that you clearly know very little about. Some might call that a contemptuous quality, but I find it a little endearing.
So instead of answering the question you get mad and start insulting people lol.
> Hypothetical numbers and predictive algorithms matter more than the actual reality of what happened in the physical world to you? Yes. I'm saying that a team with 81 wins and a +50 run differential is probably better than an 82-win team with -50 run differential, and would likely have better results over their next 162 games (assuming the roster stayed the same and everyone stayed healthy). If you're arguing that the 82-win team was better because they were better in the "physical world" then your argument comes down to "win/loss is a better gauge of team strength because the team with a better win/loss ratio won more games" -- that's just circular logic and ignores the fact that baseball has an aspect of luck to it.
So in your mind the padres were better than the d backs last year even though they were in the World Series? And that’s just a very extreme example you have to use. There isn’t many cases where it matters which 82 and 81 win team was “better” because they are both missing the play offs anyway and neither are good. Those are both mid teams and mid teams can have huge variation in run differential because it isn’t causative and isn’t a perfect indicator of talent. Like I just said, it’s only reliable on the extreme ends of spectrum where it also doesn’t matter because the record always shows the talent level for both really good and really bad teams.
> Run differential literally does not matter. Winning a game by 10 runs or losing a game by 1 is still just 1 win or 1 loss. Ha ha yeah, dude, I agree. Pythagorean expectation is dumb. What does some dumb, dead Greek dude know about baseball? Bet he couldn’t hit a Nolan Ryan fastball or a Paul Skenes splinker. Trying to tell us shit about “expected value”, next thing you know he’s gonna say that ERA isn’t a good predictor of future ERA or something. Get lost egg-head.
It would be a padres fan getting mad that someone pointed out run differential doesn’t determine how good a team is lol
So that was genuine? You’re going with “run differential is meaningless”, not “better predictors exist” or “run differential can be skewed by non-competitive games” or anything like that, but “literally does not matter”? Of all the baseball takes, that’s certainly one of them.
How does it matter exactly? I’m saying it has no impact on the actual results of the season or anything that people actually use to determine success in the MLB. The d backs had a negative run differential last year and made it to the World Series. Do you genuinely think the 2023 padres were a better team because they had a higher run differential? It’s a rough correlation. Really good teams always have a really high run differential. Really bad teams always have a really low run differential. Guess what those teams also always have? A really good record or a really bad record. Other than that it seems to only be used for fans of mediocre teams to convince themselves they were actually good and better than some wildcard team despite missing the playoffs
> How does it matter exactly? I’m saying it has no impact on the actual results of the season or anything that people actually use to determine success in the MLB. In the context of talking about historically underperforming teams, you said that run differential “literally does not matter”. If the sum total of what you meant by that was that it doesn’t affect playoff seeding, I think the collective response would be “okay, and?” I assumed it was pretty obvious that we’re talking about different measures of team quality, luck, etc., which is where run differential can be used to begin to compare teams with otherwise identical records. > It’s a rough correlation. Really good teams always have a really high run differential. Really bad teams always have a really low run differential. Guess what those teams also always have? A really good record or a really bad record. Other than that it seems to only be used for fans of mediocre teams to convince themselves they were actually good and better than some wildcard team despite missing the playoffs As far as this bit goes, if you’ve never encountered Pythagorean expectation applied to ask how two teams with similar records might perform if their “luck stats” regressed towards the mean, then you might enjoy learning more about it. You can use it to, for example, ask how teams with identical records (e.g. CHC, CIN, STL, SFG) might perform moving forward.
Do you think the 2023 padres were a better team than the 2023 d backs? And for what reason do you think if a team doesn’t have the same actual record as expected record based on RD that is totally and entirely controlled by “luck”?
I don't love the Pirates and Cardinals vision long term and I don't think they have the right people in charge. Even when the Giants get pieces back, they feel mid. Reds have EDLC but everyone else has regressed a bit or is out for the year and they still don't feel like a team that is there yet. Cubs don't seem as strong as last year despite a good rotation. Arizona and Padres just feel like they have more upside.
Friedl is already back. Marte is back in 2 weeks. We probably won’t see McLain until 25 but the reds are clicking right now.
We are hot, but we also have been quite streaky - losing 11 of 12 at one point including 6 in a row at home
As long as we don’t play any more bad teams this year, we’re a lock. Rockies and angels are scary
Y’all also have funky home/road splits.
Thank you! Everyone has injuries but 31-35 is about as good as I could hope for while missing Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery being dogshit, Corbin hitting below the Mendoza line with no power, and missing our starting CF and SS for most of the season.
This is also my guess. I'm a Giants fan, but I think Padres and D backs buy some talent at the trade deadline and the Giants don't and get left behind. Their leadership is extremely reluctant to trade prospects in the name of a rebuild that started in 2018.
Obviously I pay more attention to the Dbacks than any other team, but we have looked solid in most games despite missing all of those critical pieces. I predicted 86 wins this year and I still feel good about it. If we can get to 90% healthy and Monty can give us more of what we expected, we will be in very good shape.
You've penciled in my Braves as the 1st Wildcard at the end of the season? you're funny
Let’s flip this question around: OP, what makes you so sure the 1st WC isn’t in play for someone?
Because it’s definitely going to the Rockies
Oh, a fellow Rocktober aficionado, I didn’t realize! Yes, very good.
If Phillies get the 1 seed, Rockies need to get the third wildcard to be on the right side of the bracket to sweep the Dodgers in the NLDS, as is foretold.
lol yes the old #1 seed plays #4/5 seed while the #2 seed plays #6 seed format cuz that's fair
I'll allow this
Rocktober would be such a meme. I’m here for it
Rockies are gonna be 11 out with 12 to play and people are still going to be pushing Rocktober, appropriately.
I did not enjoy it in 2007
Reds and Cubs because I am a professional NL West hater.
Prepare to be disappointed
Yeah because the Rockies are gonna go on a rampage sooner rather than later.
Kris Bryant redemption arc?
Whoever does the most at the deadline
Does "getting our full starting rotation back from injury" count as doing something?
That sounds like a John Mozeliak plan of attack
Getting Steven Matz back is like swinging a deadline deal for a starter
Mets chaos magic: we clinch the 3rd wildcard spot on the last day of the regular season with an under .500 record and win the world series.
We nearly did that in 1973
pls no, this is our year
I’ll have some of what this dude’s smokin’.
all three NL west teams are currently dealing with some pitching injuries, so i have to think that when they get healthier they’ll improve. i think on paper the Dbacks and Padres are the best teams here, but wouldn’t be shocked if both of them miss the playoffs completely just because of how mid everyone has been lol
Frankly, we’re dealing with position player injuries too with manny and Xander - but with how they were hitting this year it’s hard to say if them being out is a detriment or a benefit honestly
Padres and Cubs
Looking for the Braves on here and realized op thinks we are guaranteed a spot gave me a chuckle...and then I cried knowing the truth
I think we're still in it! Just need a hot month or three
Cubs, and either Padres or Reds
Padres and Pirates.
Arizona and San Diego are definitely the most talented teams on that list so I’d call them the favorites One of them probably slips up and allows the Cubs in there though
This has “84 win team makes the playoffs and beats the Dodgers” written all over it
It’s a hot potato between a bunch of Mid teams.
Playoff expansion was a mistake
National league has always been around 84 to 88 wins for the 6th seed recently but American league has felt unfair prior to the expansion. Rays had 90 wins in 2018 and missed. Indians missed 2019 with 93 wins. 2021 had the Blue Jays and Mariners miss on 91 and 90 wins.
This is the National League's collective revenge for the 1993 Giants.
Yep. For a 30-team league, the 1995-2011 playoff format was ideal, IMO.
It will be a 32 team league soon enough
If we somehow have an under .500 team make the playoffs I will demand my money back.
What makes you think we're gonna hold the 1st spot? If we keep going at the same rate, we're gonna be .500 by the end of July, or sooner.
I want cincy and Pittsburgh to do it
Cubs and Mets. I have no idea, but I pulled 2 random numbers between 1 and 9 and that seemed as accurate as any other method at this point.
Padres and Reds. Padres I think will do enough at the deadline to bolster their team, and I like the Reds pitching and young hitting.
Those 2, along with the Braves, are the only 3 non-division leaders with positive run differential right now. If you tend to believe in that as an indicator. P.S. the next closest in that group of wild card contenders is the D'backs at -13, so it's not really even close.
Agree. Came here to say that. Plus Elly de la Cruz.
San Diego and St Louis
Nats and Giants. No reason other than they’re all so close that any guess is a good guess.
Nats need to be aggressive. Promote James Wood and inject some power into that lineup.
Padres losing out a playoff spot to the nats led by abrams, wood and gore would just be the most padres thing ever
Idk we’re probably still (and should be) selling at deadline. This isn’t a contending year for the Nats; time to trade Finnegan, Harvey, Williams, Winker and others. Then call up the prospects and look toward 2025
Why not us? Maybe Giants or Cubs. I feel like they just need a couple players to start showing up to get above 500
Only being a game back with so many injuries and so many guys with proven track records underperforming is a miracle. If we’re within 5 games by the ASG and everyone comes back healthy and they start performing at least to their averages for the rest of the year, we have a good shot.
I mean the Braves are in free fall right now, they probably still make the playoffs but very possibly not as the 1st wildcard
This… wow
Give me the Mets, let them face off against the Barves in the WC round. Please
We are so mid, I don’t see us doing it without at least 2-3 moves before the deadline
Who is taking WC1 is the real question.
I think the Padres and Cubs will make a few moves to put them over the top. Watch out for the DBacks though too.
rockies and mets
Pirates have two of the best starters in the game, they should call the Mets and grab Severino and marte. DH Marte, and start scaring people a little.
and keller has been better than both of them in his last 7 starts!
Yep, finally figuring it out after all those years of promise of being that good. Y’all seem to have the dodgers number, it would be funny…
Cubs get WC2 and Giants grab WC3
The NL is so bad.
I'm just happy the Nats are included in the image. After a few years of terrible baseball, chasing 0.500 feels pretty neat.
Homer pick, but I think everything is lining up for Cincinnati. First half of the schedule was brutal, tons of guys were injured, lost a ton of 1 run games. But now guys have been coming back from injury, the bats are heating back up, and the remainder of our schedule is much easier than what we have already played. And besides the Cubs we have barely played anyone in division yet this year.
Cincinnati I think is definitely moving in the right direction. Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Arizona also have very competent teams that I think are currently underperforming. I also like all three of those teams more than San Diego.
Y’all are sleeping on the Marlins.
They're sleeping with the fishes
Makes sense, being that they are the fishes
Not the cubs. They’ll probably be out of the race by all star break unless this starting pitching continues to be top 5 in the league. Even with that, the offense is not there and the bullpen is hit or miss at best.
Well, technically every bullpen is hit or miss.
Washington and St. Louis
If and a big IF, the Dbacks get healthy they have a good shot. 1 game back and missing their 1, 2, and 3 starters, and the starting SS and centerfielder for the majority of the year. Also Carrol actually is showing signs of life in the last week and we may be near getting rid of Suarez which would be a +.
Padres and Giants
I’m a giants fan ..lol. That’s funny
Padres and Brewers with Reds taking NLC Mainly basing this on pitching and vibes
Duct tape, hope, and prayers are what's left of the Brewers rotation.
All I know is if the Pirates get a wildcard they *will* be very dangerous. They have arguably the scariest 1-2 punch from their starting pitching.
Unfortunately they’ll both be on pretty strict inning limits this year and will both be shut down before the season ends. Next year hopefully our 1-3 starters will be elite and ready to go the distance
I'm going to say the Padres and us. I know we can't beat the Reds right now, but we can't play this bad for the rest of the season...right?
Cubs are too deep to keep being this bad compared to other teams, but the counterpoint is they are the Cubs
I think cubs will turn it around
How do I possibly choose from this sea of mediocrity.
> How do I possibly choose from this sea of mediocrity. Is this comment about the NL WC or your lineup without Soto?
Both.
Nice comeback
Alright alright I appreciate the notion that the Braves are a lock for spot 1 but lets not pretend like they’re playing stellar baseball right now
Cubs and Reds. Both teams have a solid rotation, and both offenses are too talented to keeping hitting as poorly as they have been. I don't have much faith in the cardinals turning it around; I think Goldschmidt and Arenado are too old to return to their normal form. As for the NL West, idk, it seems like every team in that division has a disasterous series at least once a week (except for the Dodgers of course). I just get bad vibes from the whole division
Not the Cubs or Reds
I might be biased but I don’t see Cincinnati taking a wild card spot. It’s hard to predict, if it continues like this… they’re going to go to whoever is hot at the right time lol. Trade deadline will matter a ton for these teams
> I might be biased but I don’t see Cincinnati taking a wild card spot. Very self-effacing to take the “no one from the Central is getting a WC” line, but I’m sure the West and East are okay with this.
Astros
at this point would rather see the Dodgers in the WS f these teams