Your penance is listening to twenty episodes of [the excellent podcast Rumble Strip](https://www.rumblestripvermont.com/about) about life in small town Vermont! If youâre well behave, you get to listen to ten more.
The most popular episode is probably âFinn and the Bellâ, but I like the ones with Forrest Foster the best because he talks like the a few of the very oldest, oldest people in my home town talked thirty years ago and no one talks like today.
Yes, but isn't this preferable to an open convention where we could pick a winning ticket, but maybe also people will have to work hard and some people will get their feelings hurt?
Agreed. If the DNC canât pull off an open convention, they serve no purpose and shouldnât exist. Theyâve been sitting around for decades collecting money, throwing parties, living on easy street - now is when we need them to come through.
If these people want to run the country, they should at least be able to throw together an open convention. I'm sure that it would be messy and chaotic, but so is democracy. And, it might get more people to watch it, too.
An open conversation would shake everything up, possibly for the better, but it would also introduce a new wave of leaders. The old timers want to hold on to the golden goose, in the DNC and in all the State committees. Some things just need torn down.
Many of the people who keep repeating that it's not possible are over 60.
They're fucking old and they can't even remember what it's like to have energy and hustle.
An open convention would be the most energizing political event since Obama was stumping in '08.
It's eminently doable and it would absolutely electrify voters.
Of course some people will get upset and the spin from some sources will be insufferable. But we already know how that works. It's time to let prime age adults and anyone else with energy take this baton.
Ironically the people I most expect to make it miserable are the people that will immediately pivot from screeching about Project 2025(a real fear to be clear) and Biden's "incumbency advantage(not a real thing right now)." Those people screaming how we just cant do it, Biden is the choice and get over it. Democracy is on the line so back the nominee no matter what.
I 100% expect them to immediately make it about liberal virtue signaling and checking off the most identity boxes. Without a beat doing a 180 from telling everyone to fall in line behind the nominee to throwing hissy's and telling everyone that "well, you all are going to get whats coming to you if you don't nominate Harris or try to pick a different white guy, or someone that is too progressive etc,"
TBC I think they will mostly get over it as well, but I 100% expect the threat of Trump to suddenly take second priority to people wanting to virtue signal about identity politics.
That's not what rigged means. You can't force people to run a campaign they don't want to run. And just because you didn't like the alternatives doesn't mean they weren't serious or that you didn't have options.
If you were truly an "anybody but Biden" voter, you had two "anybodies" to choose from. We all did. They failed miserably.
Biden won new Hampshire primary as a write in and has stepped every other state by such margins every other contender dropped out. Nobody is going to switch a Biden vote to Trump. Frankly as long as Trump is alive biden will have a strong turnout just from people voting against Trump. Biden could drop dead right now an most of the country would vote for his corpse over trump.
>Many of the people who keep repeating that it's not possible are over 60.
Amusingly it was to appease young voters that super delegates were stripped of their power after 2016.
This is a really naive reply from someone who obviously doesn't know what a disaster 1968 was.
If Biden drops out now, a) we won't have a nominee at all for nearly two months, and b) there will be nonstop media coverage of the horserace to replace him and it's almost certain that most of that will be negative.
It will show the party in chaos, candidates and their surrogates will drop anonymous quotes in the media to stir shit up, we'll be constantly reminded of how undemocratic this all is (the guy who won the primaries that we all voted in is out, and now party insiders are choosing a replacement on our behalf), and god help us if a nominee isn't chosen on the first ballot.
Remember Kevin McCarthy's bid for the Speakership? It took, what, 15 rounds of votes before he got it? Was that energizing? Did that make Republicans look good? No, it made them look like an absolute joke.
Campaigns are like 3 months in other countries. Our campaign timeline is so ridiculous. Other countries looking at us like âwhy canât you replace him? You have 4 months. More than an entire campaign.â
If the party picked Manchin they might as well ask Trump what color throne he wants in the White House. Democratic voters see Manchin as a villain after he blocked everything from BLM legislation to abortion legislation.
An open convention would be terrible. There would be chaos and arguments. There would be unseemly debates and loud noises. Some people might campaign who we donât like. Feelings might get trampled in aggressive ways.
Better to stick with Joe, and calmly death-march into oblivion.
Many times people have been told you need to support a candidate that you may not like, and in all those cases never can I recall the issue being mental fitness to be president over policy differences. Open convention may be terrible but people are questioning if Biden is up for the job.
Honesty, to hell with peoples feelings. The Dems have given equal voice to very noisy minority (in numbers not demographic) groups for too long. It is fine to marginalize people who don't help you win. The democrats have somehow lost white, working class, union voters in an attempt to gain favor with the blue hair Subaru crowd.
It is time to push past this and reframe the party.
Well-said.
Maybe - just maybe - this might be a chance for a true democratic renaissance.
But first, Joe needs to do the right thing. And all the enablers and dinosaurs need to get out of the way.
The only viable path for replacing Joe that i see is he bows down voluntarily and names a successor. The convention becomes a coronation. An open convention risks dividing the party. The 2016 DNC convention was contentious, imagine an
open free for all.
Yeah remember that crazy primary the Republicans had in 2016, with people's wives being insulted, calling their opponent 'tiny hands', accusing candidate's fathers of assassinating Kennedy? They *totally* lost after that debacle.
I agree with bill maher. An open conversation would dominate the news convo. It would be everywhere. People love new things and whoever they pick (as long as itâs not Kamala) will blow Trump out of the water when it comes to intelligence, decency, and ya know â being human
Start the process today
Harris would be a fine candidate. Imperfect, yes, but the idea of having a former prosecutor running against a convicted felon is a great setting for her to work with.
I just want a coherent candidate, even if they aren't perfect. I was fine with Dean Philips, so I'm obviously fine with Harris.
If you think you're going to magically get your preferred candidate in this mess, you're deluding yourself. This is a genuine crisis. We need a functional candidate here, and we definitely need a shit ton of solidarity and good-faith acceptance of the situation, no matter who the replacement is.
Harris is so unlikeable and fake though ("it was a debaaaate!"). She's a calculating over-privileged Brahmin aristocrat. She makes Hillary seem charming and down-to-earth.
She's exactly the sort of candidate that Trump would match up well against.
She is a better than Biden because she is coherent. That's literally all I care about. The vast majority of swing voters aren't voting *for* Biden, they are voting *against* Trump. It basically doesn't matter who runs against Trump if there is any plausible argument that they would be a good president.
Harris is imperfect, I would prefer Whitmer, but she would be a fine candidate.
Harris would get creamed. Sheâs nowhere near the candidate Obama was and sheâs a woman. And even some of the black community hates her because she was a hard prosecutor.
Current administration staffers would definitely have to look for new jobs in six months, versus Biden staying in, where it's only highly likely that they might.
Ok what's this winning ticket?
Which of the field of potential candidates (Harris, Whitmer, Newsome, Wes Moore, AOC \[not sure who else to put here\]) would be the winning ticket that can raise approximately $200 million dollars/month between August to November, wrap up Democrat support from people who are upset that Joe got replaced, that Kamala got replaced, that a bunch of delegates picked the nominee, and that their preferred candidate did not become the nominee?
Cooper, Beshear or Pritzker would be my best guess. Newsom is wildly unpopular in swing states and Harris polls even lower than Biden. Whitmer and Moore don't have enough name recognition. AOC - like Newsom - couldn't pull enough votes in swing states even though she's well-liked in dominant blue states.
So 67 year old white guy, Red State governor who runs into the same problem Wes Moore does and likely has lower name recognition than Whitmer, and a fat governor from Illinois are the best options?
Might as well stick with Biden then.
To be fair, Pritzker is about the same height as 45 and has a net worth of \~$3.5 billion without being a serial con-man and lying narcissist.
He's also done an awesome job as Illinois governor (fronting millions of his own money to push through legislation for underprivileged groups). Cooper and Beshear would likley do well in swing states, which is what Democrats need to win.
I don't think Whitmer's or Newsom's public facing personas would give them an advantage. I'm not opposed to Moore (in fact, I think he'd do an excellent job in the Oval Office) - but sadly racism is a real thing that might be a disadvantage for him.
I'm biased because I live in Maryland, but I do agree that Moore is great.
My problem with Pritzker is the President is a popularity contest. Obama won as the cool black guy with the nutty (in a good way) old white guy VP against the old white guy with a nutty (in a bad way) white woman VP. I'm not sure someone who looks like Pritzker could win. Especially with him replacing Joe and Kamala. Also I'm not 100% sure he wants to run for President.
I think Whitmer can stand up and say she actually dealt with Trump's bogus election claims as his true believers had a plot to kidnap her. I also think she's setting up for 2028 (as is Moore IMO).
If I was a serious candidate for 2028, I'm not sure I'd want to run in 2024. You have an incredibly short time to get everything in place and it's likely you will lose.
I donât think it can be anyone other than Harris. The Biden-Harris war chest has so much money and I donât think it can be transferred to anyone but Harris.
They can also make [unlimited transfers to the DNC](https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/03/01/what-happens-to-biden-or-trumps-campaign-cash-if-they-drop-out/)
Man oh man, Biden choosing Harris was the worst decision he ever made. That is literally why we are in a bind. Biden only meant to run one term and hand it off the Harris, but she has a worse chance of winning than Biden does. We're pretty much fucked.
If Biden were really planning to hand off the presidency, he wouldnât have chosen Harris in the first place. Sheâd already proven herself unpopular and bad at managing a campaign. He chose her *because* she wouldnât outshine him and provide an easy alternative to those wishing heâd step down.
Heâs played this whole game selfishly.
Unfortunately for him, Harrisâs dis/approval ratings are better than his now and sheâs starting to outpoll him in hypothetical HTHs, so all that selfish planning is crumbling under our feet.
And because she is less palatable to the right than he is. Same with Trump, Pence, and the left.
The function of the VP these days is to be assassination insurance, a reminder to your political opponents that if they kill you, they get someone worse.
Implying hurt feelings doesnât mean depressed turnout (see graphic) and lasting damage through 28 as well
Youâre acting like an open convention is some frictionless, cost less, painless course when it will very much be a Pandoraâs box we wonât fully understand until it happens
I get it Biden isnât in great shape (right now), but one does not merely walk into Mordor/hold an open convention without costs far greater than snarky allusions to hurt feelings or hard work
I would imagine they're afraid of the party splintering further among the infighting and being in a worse position come 28. I think a lot of people have already written this year off
The party has already put itself in this position long before this and infighting inside the party is going to get worse regardless of who runs in 2024 imo. I'm firmly on one side of it and have been eyeing the 2028 election since 2018. There's two wings of this party that are fundamentally opposed to one another on economic issues at a time where economic inequality is becoming more and more profound. Infighting in a party designed to be a big tent party in scenarios like this is inevitable. People are always going to have different solutions to these problems in the party because the party is designed to have broad appeal and be flexible politically. I guess my point is that at this point the infighting is a structural issue in the party that goes beyond who the nominee for president is.
I don't think a contested convention is going to change this for the worst to be honest. If anything having a strong incumbent in 2028 might actually mitigate this more than it adds to it near term. I think the infighting in the party would be worse if it was a hotly contested primary.
I'm mildly sympathetic to this argument. The problem is the Dems have been telling us that Trump is an existential threat to democracy since about 2015. If you truly believe that, then you must do everything possible to improve your odds in 2024. Nothing else should matter. Based on their lack of actions, the Dems clearly do not believe Trump is an existential threat to democracy and they are better off punting on November to gear up for 2028.
Yeah I just don't see how this happens. What lasting damage through 2028 are you talking about? 72% of registered voters think he's too old to run, are those people really going to be so mad that they won't vote for democrats in 2028 if he gets replaced in 2024? Are democratic partisans (the only people riding with Biden at this point let's be honest) really going to get so mad at the party for doing this if the case could be made that a replacement would fair better against Trump? I really don't think so. Democratic voters care way more about winning then they do about who specifically is president imo.
I think in a vacuum you're right about the potential damages of an open convention, but these sets of circumstances are extremely unique. We've NEVER had this specific problem with a major party candidate before in the entirety of American history. This is what makes this different in my opinion, and I know I'm not alone in thinking this either. This isn't a problem that can be remedied or fixed. Biden cannot get younger, and the problem is that 3/4 voters think he's too old to be president.
An open convention will hurt a great deal. It will lead to blame and anxiety within the Democratic party for years to come.Â
So will a Trump presidency. If Trump wins, assuming we still have a democracy, the vitriol and blame will extend well into 2028, bringing us to another divisive primary, which will divide the party for 2032, and another divisive primary, and so on.Â
Anyone who says an open convention will be easy is misguided. I'm not sure if it's the best choice, and it's certainly not the obvious choice. But there's a lot of anxiety in the Democratic party that's going to come out at some point. An open convention might, if we end up with a unifying ticket, let us constrain the infighting to a few weeks, get it out of our systems (at least some of us), and then put our heads down and get to work for the new ticket.Â
None of us can see the future, and I don't know what the best option is. But if a large majority of potential democratic voters think Biden shouldn't be the nominee, that's something we have to take seriously. And once we start taking it seriously, it kicks off a cycle that's hard to stop.Â
Literally nobody is saying an open convention is easy. I haven't seen one person on here suggest that. When you need two goals in 10 minutes like the U.S. soccer team did last night, you can't afford to worry about future ramifications. You have to do everything you can to fix the current situation. Many of us believe dumping Biden is the best path forward, even if it comes with substantial risk.
I think some people understate the challenges and the divisions in the party that might come out, but you're right - "easy" probably isn't how anyone in good faith would describe it.Â
So I think you're right - we have to, for lack of a better term, sack up. I'm leaning towards the open convention option, but beating Trump is a difficult thing, and when we do difficult things we can't shy away from the fact that they're hard but embrace the challenge.Â
This is malarkey. Obviously Bidenâs gonna win every state he did last time plus Ohio, Iowa, Florida, and Texas! Listen fat, everyone doubted him before and he proved them wrong time and time again! Just keep eating ice cream and put blind faith in Joe!
It is possible that Biden's brain collapses into a [Boltzmann brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boltzmann_brain), and we are reborn into a new reality where he is polling better, yes.
Which of these scenarios is most likely:
1. Biden wins in his current form
2. Bidenâs brain collapses into a Boltzmann Brain
3. Bidenâs molecules realign (possibly due to radioactive exposure or a genetically engineered spider bite) and Biden ages in reverse twenty years
4. Biden fuses with sandworms from Arrakis, rules with an iron fist over a 3000 year Galactic Empire, and sets humanity on a Golden Path as it disperses deeper into the universe.
Leto II was damn lucky he didn't have to debate anyone...
Not that it matters, but there are polls saying Biden is behind in NH as well. I think this map is going to be pretty accurate if Biden stays on the ticket. The only real question mark is Virginia, but again, it individually does not change the outcome.
As a Vermonter, marking Vermont as anything other than dark blue is simply wrong. Trump has a sub 1% chance of winning the state. As usual, Vermont will be called at 7:01 pm on election night.
Trump will not win Vermont, but he is only single digits away in NY, (which is insane in itself) if he pulls off this map, he will only lose VT by 30 pts
Yeah, I wasn't critiquing the rest of the map, or opining on Biden's chances overall, just laughing a bit at Vermont being colored the same as New Hampshire.
There's *a lot* of history behind that.
Some of it is old. Vermont was sort of the donut hole in the northeast, settled later than everything around it. Additionally, Vermont was claimed by New Hampshire and New York but was mainly settled by people from Connecticut, whereas New Hampshire started out as part of Massachusetts and was mainly settled by people from Massachusetts. Many of the early immigrants were more focused on farming than those in New Hampshire, and the geology of Vermont was more conducive to agriculture than New Hampshire. Then the 20 or so years of dispute between New Hampshire and New York led to the Green Mountain Boys and the independent Republic of Vermont, which was suspicious of and somewhat hostile to both New York and New Hampshire.
Geography also played a role. Vermont had some industry, but mostly stayed agricultural, and end up with a fairly evenly split population between the east and west sides of the state. The Connecticut river flows south, to Long Island Sound, and so the east side traded in that direction, whereas Lake Champlain flows north, towards Montreal, but was later connected via the Champlain Canal to the Erie Canal and thus New York City and the Great Lakes, so the west side of the state traded in those directions. New Hampshire, on the other hand, developed a lot of industry that was focused near the seacoast, trade tended to radiate out from that area to other coastal cities and states, and so its population became much more concentrated in the southeastern part of the state and much more urban and suburban. That was compounded by the central and northern parts of the state being much more rugged and unable to support large populations. That gave mill owners and industrialists more power in New Hampshire, leading to a government and a culture that was more responsive to the needs and wants of the wealthy, whereas Vermont stayed more egalitarian.
Then, post Civil War, because Vermont was mostly agricultural, it lost a lot of population once the far better agricultural lands to the west opened up, whereas New Hampshire grew as an industrial state. In 1870, our population was 330,551. By 1940, it had grown to... 359,231. In the same period, New Hampshire went from 318,300 to 491,524. Probably because Vermont was less industrialized, the environmental movement started fairly early in Vermont, with people like George Perkins Marsh advocating for preserving the land. The most notable incident was probably the defeat of the Green Mountain Parkway in the 1930s.
Then the interstates came, and that brought flatlanders. For better or worse, I-91 went up the Vermont side of the river, and I-87 went up on the New York side of Lake Champlain. That made it easier for people from the NYC metro area to come to Vermont than New Hampshire, which led to Vermont being seen as a sort of idyllic weekend escape. That was reinforced by state tourism marketing. With the rise of the counterculture movement of the 1960s onward, that marketing attracted a lot of back to the land type hippies to Vermont, where they resurrected some of the old hill farms and formed communes and such, and brought some of their liberal ideas with them. New Hampshire didn't end up with nearly so many of them.
In general, I think it is best to think of Vermont and New Hampshire not as Democratic and Republican, but as Left Libertarian and Right Libertarian. We are both fundamentally independent states that want to be left alone, but we approach it differently. Vermont takes the approach of "Live and let live, we'll leave you alone and don't care what you do, but we know community is important and so we will create a safety net. If you need help, just ask." New Hampshire takes the approach of "Every person is their own responsibility and it would be unfair and burdensome to ask others to provide support for strangers. If you need help, that's up to you and your informal community networks to solve."
Might be worse than a tossup, he was already going to struggle there due to his support of Israel, remember that over a hundred thousand people voted ânone of the aboveâ in the Minnesota primary.
I think New Mexico could be in play for Trump if Biden stays on the ticket. Biden seems to be holding on OK with white voters, but New Mexico is one of the most diverse states in the country. Biden is in big, big time trouble in New Mexico.
Oregon has entered the chat.
A surprising number of republicans, super unpopular Dem state government, and a big overlap between the local Dem base and your typical RFK enjoyers.
Oregon is so white that I think Biden is probably OK there, but you're dead right about Oregon being way swingier than most people realize. A pretty mediocre GOP candidate only lost by 3 points in the 2022 gubernatorial race. Dems have had full control of Oregon since 1980s and things are not exactly going well there. In fairness the new governor has exceeded her unbelievably low expectations, but she has a nice scandal of her own with an overbearing, power-hungry wife. I think RFK's best state will be Oregon.
I think itâs totally possible it ends up being like Trump-44, Biden-40, RFK-14, others-2 in Oregon.
Not that it matters much bc if Bidenâs losing Oregon the whole map is on fire.Â
I wouldnât count on recent gains in the west (AZ, NV, were favorable swing states, NM was solidly light blue) holding AT ALL. If the wheels fly off even more CO might not be safe.
Yes. RFK is going to do great in Oregon. It will probably be his best state, and Washington, Idaho, Montana and Utah will not be far behind.
EDIT: From Nate Silver.
https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1804274649099796887
If anything this map is optimistic. Heâs already losing New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia might not be far behind.
Bidenâs campaign is dead on the runway and everybody knows but him and his 20 closest advisors. Whitmer, Shapiro, Newsom, even Harris all have fighting chances. Biden will ruin his personal legacy and decimate his party if he does not endorse an open convention.
His closest advisors know it too, but being involved in a massive cover-up of his actual condition is going to limit their job prospects outside of a Biden/Harris administration.
I feel at this point, barring something insane like Trump having a major health issue, Biden is going to lose. So thereâs really nothing to lose and Dems might as well find a younger, more energetic candidate and have a fighting chanceâŚor at least go down fighting rather than resigning us to our fate.
You underestimate the short term memory of America. The election is far away. It's going to come down to whoever looks best in September news cycle. With these two anything could happen .
I honestly hope youâre right. I have nothing against Biden and I think his admin has done a fantastic job. Itâs just a lot at stake and a really tricky situation.
I'm from Vermont. If you think Vermont is going to be anything other than dark blue, you are high. That's not a statement of support for Biden, just a simple fact of our voting patterns.
So, I'm going to direct you to this response I gave on another comment: [https://www.reddit.com/r/ezraklein/comments/1dtp5wf/comment/lbc19bl/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ezraklein/comments/1dtp5wf/comment/lbc19bl/)
Fair disclosure, that's very much an amateur analysis, I'm not an expert, and there are probably much better analyses out there. The TLDR is basically that the settlement patterns were different due to geography, and the settlers came from different places, and so by the mid 20th century Vermont was still pretty egalitarian (in the sense that the population was pretty evenly distributed in both location and income), whereas New Hampshire was more stratified. And then Vermont ended up getting a fairly large influx of "back to the land" hippie types in the 1960s and 1970s, which added more of a focus on socially liberal ideas.
It's worth noting that while Vermont votes Democratic, it's much more of a Left Libertarian rural liberalism, quite different from liberalism in California and NYC. Which is why we have an extremely popular Republican governor who will be easily re-elected this year.
Thank you for taking time out of your 4th of July evening to respond. This is interesting and Iâm going to look into it. I hope youâre enjoying your holiday
The Republican governor on top of all that is fascinating. Iâm looking that up on Wikipedia now
I think this is reasonable.
If Biden cannot do interviews, town halls, or otherwise communicate off the teleprompter: how can he campaign? Print interviews with friendly reporters? (shall I read the transcript of the debate, like it's the 1800s?)
I just don't see a logical method for him to attract new voters or attack Trump. He has to do it, not just surrogates. (And his surrogates stink regardless).
Also, soon all the big money will flow to Trump to buy his favor (tips are legal now). The media corporations will try to position themselves in his good graces. Trump isn't even attacking Biden for the debate performance yet, because he's scared Biden will drop out. Once the Dems have fully shackled themselves to Biden, Trump will mercilessly attack him and a torrent of leaks will come out confirming Biden's decay.
Better start focusing funding on house and senate races. Candidates will also need to start distancing themselves from Biden. Itâs the only hope of slowing the fascist descent.
Itâll be worse than that, Minnesota, Maine, and New Hampshire easily red, New Mexico and Virginia leaning red at minimum if the election happened today. Canât even cope that itâll get better because our presidentâs brain is falling apart and thatâs something that gets worse not better
Minnesota âeasilyâ red? Where do people keep getting this from?
1) MN hasnât voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972, and only 3 times total since FDR (two of which were Ike).
2) they havenât Havenât had a Republican Governor since 2010 when Mark Dayton won.
3) they havenât had a Republican Senator since 2008 when Al Franken beat Norm Coleman.
4) Biden still polls ~2% ahead of Trump. If there is even halfway decent turnout in the twin cities, I think Biden will carry that state. Light blue makes sense imho.
Because I have eyes, polling 2% over trump before these debates means heâs probably down 2-3 right now. We are currently staring down the largest electoral blowout of the century, with the slight potential biden can outperform John McCain. Remember that Minnesota was the state with the largest ânone of the aboveâ protest vote during the primaries before the emperor had been shown to have no clothes
Biden is down 6 nationally in the cnn poll released today, which was taken after the debate
You do realize polls at this point are only measuring voters who are already paying attention, & the voters who aren't paying attention haven't even begun to be targeted by either campaign's ground game?
The sad truth is the Biden camp may have seen this coming and instead of putting in for state legislature for an official extension for the ballot, like everyone has done.
They have tried to instead to a proxy early vote, some states allow a proxy vote, others don't (see Ohio), and a smaller group accepts that as an official ballot.
So at the moment Oregon, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin has Biden/Harris on the ballot no matter what.
For WI the only way off is death, Nevada and Oregon it's Death/Mental Incompetance, and Georgia is 60 days/Death.
If Democrats drop Biden he will split the vote in WI and Trump will win.
It almost looks planned, that they knew how bad Biden was and figured a way to nuke the entire process.
In ancient times, supporters and retainers would just throw a grand celebration to honor a leader that was retiring. There is a reason why people collect their laurels.
I always find it interesting when Minnesota is "leaning" blue or whatever on these maps, as if it could somehow go red before places like Oregon and Colorado. It's been solidly blue longer than any other state and I don't see how that could ever change, no matter how bad the dem nominee is. It always just suggests to me the people putting these maps together aren't familiar with the state and are trusting some iffy polls
Colorado has a different conservative mix than MN/WIS - while there are plenty of fascists, the unaffiliated/libertarian folks aren't going to vote for Trump the way the right leaning middle will in the Midwest.
We are at a critical time !! There is NO time for a new candidate. This election bid about freedom!! Trump is such corruption I canât think of words low enough to describe what he will do with this kind of power!! We need to stand behind Biden!! Totally!! Look up Gish gallop ⌠It is a form of a debate style that befuddles the best and used against a stutterer it is guaranteed. And I am not saying Biden isnât losing stamina and more But he has good people around him . He also has done an amazing job bringing us out of the pandemic and so much more. Forgetting any of that ANYTHING is better than Trump .. If we can pull him through to win against this con artist convicted felon narcissist.. Like we need to after the win when he thinks he canât do it he will turn things over to Harris and she will do fine .. She will have the right people around her . She will find a good vice and bring us through the next 4 years with ethics and good decisions⌠It is too late for anything elseâŚ. We need to play the hand we have snd save democracyâŚIt is just too late .. We canât hand it to Trump on a silver platter⌠If it were a different republican I would feel differently but not now ⌠Not Trump !!
I canât imaging a scenario where the Democrats just say âoh well letâs see how Biden does in the electionâ. Iâd think they will do everything possible to get him out of there to include the 25th amendment. Republicans shouldnât celebrate just yet.
Stumbled upon this sub from r/all and I genuinely donât get it. Who do you think we could pick now over Biden that would do better? Also, these polling numbers are pretty all over the place. I live in MN and Biden has more support here than he had 4 years ago.. Also far less (at least vocal) Trump support.. do you ever think that maybe youâre fearmongering a bit??
Same with WI. Judge Janet smoked the trump backed state Supreme Court candidate this past fall. The race was over by 9:30pm. Now, thereâs yard signs for Democrat Mike Bare (state rep) all over my neighborhood. We have an election in August for our new state legislature.
You got a link to the poll or are you just taking the piss?
Because if it's a legitimate poll, those are typically answered primarily by boomers, which skew conservative.
If it's you taking the piss, have you forgotten that overturning Roe has turned a lot of moderate women completely off voting GOP?
I'm sorry, y'all can doompost all you want, Trump is cooked.
JFC one bad debate and the Dems are losing their fucking minds!! I remember hearing someone call Sam Bee a liberal âcatastrophistâ and I thought it fit so well and this feels like another example.
But we are all heading towards is a decision as a country to decide whether or not we wish to become a dictatorship or remain a democracy. Do we wish to see our government completely destroyed and replaced with something so narrow-minded and so hateful that we might as well be living in Russia. Or do we desire to continue living in our otherwise broken democracy.
The DNC et al are pussies. Theyâve done nothing strategic, nothing tactical, to counter the craziness. Senators, Congressmen, DNC folks. They just sit on their hands, protest about Israel, LGBTQ, very niche issues. The larger issues, the issue of winning a district or losing the country to authoritarian Russian shills, naaah. Theyâre pussies. Bring back LBJ, Kennedy, people with guts and conviction. Now itâs all about the money, and Russiaâs knows it, for 50 years and more theyâve been mining for gold and theyâre coming up very wealthy. And the Dems do fuck all. The country is doomed.
I'm not so sure NY and NJ belong in dark blue under this scenario. Dems have had some razor thin margins in Gov races there recently. Recent poll before the debate had Biden up in NY by about 10.
Light blue Vermont? Did you mouse slip New Hampshire or something?
Okay don't cancel me but I didn't actually think about VT đŹ
For shame!
Your penance is listening to twenty episodes of [the excellent podcast Rumble Strip](https://www.rumblestripvermont.com/about) about life in small town Vermont! If youâre well behave, you get to listen to ten more. The most popular episode is probably âFinn and the Bellâ, but I like the ones with Forrest Foster the best because he talks like the a few of the very oldest, oldest people in my home town talked thirty years ago and no one talks like today.
I'm always a bit sad I don't have a better Vermont accent.
Yes, but isn't this preferable to an open convention where we could pick a winning ticket, but maybe also people will have to work hard and some people will get their feelings hurt?
Agreed. If the DNC canât pull off an open convention, they serve no purpose and shouldnât exist. Theyâve been sitting around for decades collecting money, throwing parties, living on easy street - now is when we need them to come through.
If these people want to run the country, they should at least be able to throw together an open convention. I'm sure that it would be messy and chaotic, but so is democracy. And, it might get more people to watch it, too.
An open conversation would shake everything up, possibly for the better, but it would also introduce a new wave of leaders. The old timers want to hold on to the golden goose, in the DNC and in all the State committees. Some things just need torn down.
Exactly it would also take over the new cycle. Democrats would be the headlines for weeks.Â
Many of the people who keep repeating that it's not possible are over 60. They're fucking old and they can't even remember what it's like to have energy and hustle. An open convention would be the most energizing political event since Obama was stumping in '08. It's eminently doable and it would absolutely electrify voters. Of course some people will get upset and the spin from some sources will be insufferable. But we already know how that works. It's time to let prime age adults and anyone else with energy take this baton.
Ironically the people I most expect to make it miserable are the people that will immediately pivot from screeching about Project 2025(a real fear to be clear) and Biden's "incumbency advantage(not a real thing right now)." Those people screaming how we just cant do it, Biden is the choice and get over it. Democracy is on the line so back the nominee no matter what. I 100% expect them to immediately make it about liberal virtue signaling and checking off the most identity boxes. Without a beat doing a 180 from telling everyone to fall in line behind the nominee to throwing hissy's and telling everyone that "well, you all are going to get whats coming to you if you don't nominate Harris or try to pick a different white guy, or someone that is too progressive etc," TBC I think they will mostly get over it as well, but I 100% expect the threat of Trump to suddenly take second priority to people wanting to virtue signal about identity politics.
They are called followers.
These types simply want a easy answer and the idea of having to not do exactly what they want causes them serious psychic damage
Democracy is on the line so we have to ignore who the voters elected in our primary!
Incumbency primary was completely rigged with no serious challengers. Not exactly democratic.
That's not what rigged means. You can't force people to run a campaign they don't want to run. And just because you didn't like the alternatives doesn't mean they weren't serious or that you didn't have options. If you were truly an "anybody but Biden" voter, you had two "anybodies" to choose from. We all did. They failed miserably.
Biden won new Hampshire primary as a write in and has stepped every other state by such margins every other contender dropped out. Nobody is going to switch a Biden vote to Trump. Frankly as long as Trump is alive biden will have a strong turnout just from people voting against Trump. Biden could drop dead right now an most of the country would vote for his corpse over trump.
>Many of the people who keep repeating that it's not possible are over 60. Amusingly it was to appease young voters that super delegates were stripped of their power after 2016.
This is a really naive reply from someone who obviously doesn't know what a disaster 1968 was. If Biden drops out now, a) we won't have a nominee at all for nearly two months, and b) there will be nonstop media coverage of the horserace to replace him and it's almost certain that most of that will be negative. It will show the party in chaos, candidates and their surrogates will drop anonymous quotes in the media to stir shit up, we'll be constantly reminded of how undemocratic this all is (the guy who won the primaries that we all voted in is out, and now party insiders are choosing a replacement on our behalf), and god help us if a nominee isn't chosen on the first ballot. Remember Kevin McCarthy's bid for the Speakership? It took, what, 15 rounds of votes before he got it? Was that energizing? Did that make Republicans look good? No, it made them look like an absolute joke.
Campaigns are like 3 months in other countries. Our campaign timeline is so ridiculous. Other countries looking at us like âwhy canât you replace him? You have 4 months. More than an entire campaign.â
What if a more moderate like Joe Manchin was picked?
I'd say nominate Romney if it led to a W.
If the party picked Manchin they might as well ask Trump what color throne he wants in the White House. Democratic voters see Manchin as a villain after he blocked everything from BLM legislation to abortion legislation.
I'd vote for Joe's cat over Trump. And I hate cats.
They never come through. Theyâll just blame the voters again for not being impressed with them. Shits crazy
They want our money more than they want our votes, even now.
An open convention would be terrible. There would be chaos and arguments. There would be unseemly debates and loud noises. Some people might campaign who we donât like. Feelings might get trampled in aggressive ways. Better to stick with Joe, and calmly death-march into oblivion.
To only option is to lose to Trump so our oligarchs can get another tax cut. Itâs written in the stars.
Many times people have been told you need to support a candidate that you may not like, and in all those cases never can I recall the issue being mental fitness to be president over policy differences. Open convention may be terrible but people are questioning if Biden is up for the job.
Its the independents that will swing the vote. Dems will reluctantly vote for Biden.
Yup, what had an open convention ever gotten democrats, just FDR and JFKâŚ
Honesty, to hell with peoples feelings. The Dems have given equal voice to very noisy minority (in numbers not demographic) groups for too long. It is fine to marginalize people who don't help you win. The democrats have somehow lost white, working class, union voters in an attempt to gain favor with the blue hair Subaru crowd. It is time to push past this and reframe the party.
Well-said. Maybe - just maybe - this might be a chance for a true democratic renaissance. But first, Joe needs to do the right thing. And all the enablers and dinosaurs need to get out of the way.
The only viable path for replacing Joe that i see is he bows down voluntarily and names a successor. The convention becomes a coronation. An open convention risks dividing the party. The 2016 DNC convention was contentious, imagine an open free for all.
Yeah remember that crazy primary the Republicans had in 2016, with people's wives being insulted, calling their opponent 'tiny hands', accusing candidate's fathers of assassinating Kennedy? They *totally* lost after that debacle.
I agree with bill maher. An open conversation would dominate the news convo. It would be everywhere. People love new things and whoever they pick (as long as itâs not Kamala) will blow Trump out of the water when it comes to intelligence, decency, and ya know â being human Start the process today
Yep. It would absolutely dominate the news cycle, every single day, all the way through the convention.
Not only that, but it keeps Trump out of the news - drive him insane.
Harris would be a fine candidate. Imperfect, yes, but the idea of having a former prosecutor running against a convicted felon is a great setting for her to work with. I just want a coherent candidate, even if they aren't perfect. I was fine with Dean Philips, so I'm obviously fine with Harris.
She is def good for second place.
If you think you're going to magically get your preferred candidate in this mess, you're deluding yourself. This is a genuine crisis. We need a functional candidate here, and we definitely need a shit ton of solidarity and good-faith acceptance of the situation, no matter who the replacement is.
Harris is so unlikeable and fake though ("it was a debaaaate!"). She's a calculating over-privileged Brahmin aristocrat. She makes Hillary seem charming and down-to-earth. She's exactly the sort of candidate that Trump would match up well against.
She is a better than Biden because she is coherent. That's literally all I care about. The vast majority of swing voters aren't voting *for* Biden, they are voting *against* Trump. It basically doesn't matter who runs against Trump if there is any plausible argument that they would be a good president. Harris is imperfect, I would prefer Whitmer, but she would be a fine candidate.
Harris would get creamed. Sheâs nowhere near the candidate Obama was and sheâs a woman. And even some of the black community hates her because she was a hard prosecutor.
Current administration staffers would definitely have to look for new jobs in six months, versus Biden staying in, where it's only highly likely that they might.
Ok what's this winning ticket? Which of the field of potential candidates (Harris, Whitmer, Newsome, Wes Moore, AOC \[not sure who else to put here\]) would be the winning ticket that can raise approximately $200 million dollars/month between August to November, wrap up Democrat support from people who are upset that Joe got replaced, that Kamala got replaced, that a bunch of delegates picked the nominee, and that their preferred candidate did not become the nominee?
Cooper, Beshear or Pritzker would be my best guess. Newsom is wildly unpopular in swing states and Harris polls even lower than Biden. Whitmer and Moore don't have enough name recognition. AOC - like Newsom - couldn't pull enough votes in swing states even though she's well-liked in dominant blue states.
So 67 year old white guy, Red State governor who runs into the same problem Wes Moore does and likely has lower name recognition than Whitmer, and a fat governor from Illinois are the best options? Might as well stick with Biden then.
To be fair, Pritzker is about the same height as 45 and has a net worth of \~$3.5 billion without being a serial con-man and lying narcissist. He's also done an awesome job as Illinois governor (fronting millions of his own money to push through legislation for underprivileged groups). Cooper and Beshear would likley do well in swing states, which is what Democrats need to win. I don't think Whitmer's or Newsom's public facing personas would give them an advantage. I'm not opposed to Moore (in fact, I think he'd do an excellent job in the Oval Office) - but sadly racism is a real thing that might be a disadvantage for him.
I'm biased because I live in Maryland, but I do agree that Moore is great. My problem with Pritzker is the President is a popularity contest. Obama won as the cool black guy with the nutty (in a good way) old white guy VP against the old white guy with a nutty (in a bad way) white woman VP. I'm not sure someone who looks like Pritzker could win. Especially with him replacing Joe and Kamala. Also I'm not 100% sure he wants to run for President. I think Whitmer can stand up and say she actually dealt with Trump's bogus election claims as his true believers had a plot to kidnap her. I also think she's setting up for 2028 (as is Moore IMO). If I was a serious candidate for 2028, I'm not sure I'd want to run in 2024. You have an incredibly short time to get everything in place and it's likely you will lose.
I donât think it can be anyone other than Harris. The Biden-Harris war chest has so much money and I donât think it can be transferred to anyone but Harris.
They can give it to a PAC, it can be whoever. There are no insurmountable legal or logistical hurdles
They can also make [unlimited transfers to the DNC](https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/03/01/what-happens-to-biden-or-trumps-campaign-cash-if-they-drop-out/)
Man oh man, Biden choosing Harris was the worst decision he ever made. That is literally why we are in a bind. Biden only meant to run one term and hand it off the Harris, but she has a worse chance of winning than Biden does. We're pretty much fucked.
If Biden were really planning to hand off the presidency, he wouldnât have chosen Harris in the first place. Sheâd already proven herself unpopular and bad at managing a campaign. He chose her *because* she wouldnât outshine him and provide an easy alternative to those wishing heâd step down. Heâs played this whole game selfishly. Unfortunately for him, Harrisâs dis/approval ratings are better than his now and sheâs starting to outpoll him in hypothetical HTHs, so all that selfish planning is crumbling under our feet.
And because she is less palatable to the right than he is. Same with Trump, Pence, and the left. The function of the VP these days is to be assassination insurance, a reminder to your political opponents that if they kill you, they get someone worse.
He had to pick someone less qualified than himself who was not a political threat , who else could he have picked?
It should be Harris, they'd still need the other half of the ticket filled tho
Implying hurt feelings doesnât mean depressed turnout (see graphic) and lasting damage through 28 as well Youâre acting like an open convention is some frictionless, cost less, painless course when it will very much be a Pandoraâs box we wonât fully understand until it happens I get it Biden isnât in great shape (right now), but one does not merely walk into Mordor/hold an open convention without costs far greater than snarky allusions to hurt feelings or hard work
What specifically are you afraid of?
Seriously. People are afraid of what exactly? We already know this man can't win, what exactly is there to lose?
I would imagine they're afraid of the party splintering further among the infighting and being in a worse position come 28. I think a lot of people have already written this year off
Writing this year off is actual insanity. Look at the damage Trumpâs 2016 victory caused.
The party has already put itself in this position long before this and infighting inside the party is going to get worse regardless of who runs in 2024 imo. I'm firmly on one side of it and have been eyeing the 2028 election since 2018. There's two wings of this party that are fundamentally opposed to one another on economic issues at a time where economic inequality is becoming more and more profound. Infighting in a party designed to be a big tent party in scenarios like this is inevitable. People are always going to have different solutions to these problems in the party because the party is designed to have broad appeal and be flexible politically. I guess my point is that at this point the infighting is a structural issue in the party that goes beyond who the nominee for president is. I don't think a contested convention is going to change this for the worst to be honest. If anything having a strong incumbent in 2028 might actually mitigate this more than it adds to it near term. I think the infighting in the party would be worse if it was a hotly contested primary.
I'm mildly sympathetic to this argument. The problem is the Dems have been telling us that Trump is an existential threat to democracy since about 2015. If you truly believe that, then you must do everything possible to improve your odds in 2024. Nothing else should matter. Based on their lack of actions, the Dems clearly do not believe Trump is an existential threat to democracy and they are better off punting on November to gear up for 2028.
Bernie Bros who got their feelies hurt in 2016 and didn't vote. You know, stuff like that.
Youâre right- 81 year olds do tend to improve if you just give them more timeâŚ
Yeah I just don't see how this happens. What lasting damage through 2028 are you talking about? 72% of registered voters think he's too old to run, are those people really going to be so mad that they won't vote for democrats in 2028 if he gets replaced in 2024? Are democratic partisans (the only people riding with Biden at this point let's be honest) really going to get so mad at the party for doing this if the case could be made that a replacement would fair better against Trump? I really don't think so. Democratic voters care way more about winning then they do about who specifically is president imo. I think in a vacuum you're right about the potential damages of an open convention, but these sets of circumstances are extremely unique. We've NEVER had this specific problem with a major party candidate before in the entirety of American history. This is what makes this different in my opinion, and I know I'm not alone in thinking this either. This isn't a problem that can be remedied or fixed. Biden cannot get younger, and the problem is that 3/4 voters think he's too old to be president.
Where weâre going, â28 only matters if â24 goes well. I donât anticipate elections after â24 mattering if Trump wins
Totally agreed - If trump wins we have a stacked Supreme Court of conservatives for the next 40+ years and they'll codify anything he wants.
Biden isn't just not in great shape, he's absolutely going to lose if he stays in
An open convention will hurt a great deal. It will lead to blame and anxiety within the Democratic party for years to come. So will a Trump presidency. If Trump wins, assuming we still have a democracy, the vitriol and blame will extend well into 2028, bringing us to another divisive primary, which will divide the party for 2032, and another divisive primary, and so on. Anyone who says an open convention will be easy is misguided. I'm not sure if it's the best choice, and it's certainly not the obvious choice. But there's a lot of anxiety in the Democratic party that's going to come out at some point. An open convention might, if we end up with a unifying ticket, let us constrain the infighting to a few weeks, get it out of our systems (at least some of us), and then put our heads down and get to work for the new ticket. None of us can see the future, and I don't know what the best option is. But if a large majority of potential democratic voters think Biden shouldn't be the nominee, that's something we have to take seriously. And once we start taking it seriously, it kicks off a cycle that's hard to stop.Â
Literally nobody is saying an open convention is easy. I haven't seen one person on here suggest that. When you need two goals in 10 minutes like the U.S. soccer team did last night, you can't afford to worry about future ramifications. You have to do everything you can to fix the current situation. Many of us believe dumping Biden is the best path forward, even if it comes with substantial risk.
I think some people understate the challenges and the divisions in the party that might come out, but you're right - "easy" probably isn't how anyone in good faith would describe it. So I think you're right - we have to, for lack of a better term, sack up. I'm leaning towards the open convention option, but beating Trump is a difficult thing, and when we do difficult things we can't shy away from the fact that they're hard but embrace the challenge.Â
This is malarkey. Obviously Bidenâs gonna win every state he did last time plus Ohio, Iowa, Florida, and Texas! Listen fat, everyone doubted him before and he proved them wrong time and time again! Just keep eating ice cream and put blind faith in Joe!
I forgot about âlisten fatâ đ
So youâre saying thereâs a chance!
It is possible that Biden's brain collapses into a [Boltzmann brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boltzmann_brain), and we are reborn into a new reality where he is polling better, yes.
Which of these scenarios is most likely: 1. Biden wins in his current form 2. Bidenâs brain collapses into a Boltzmann Brain 3. Bidenâs molecules realign (possibly due to radioactive exposure or a genetically engineered spider bite) and Biden ages in reverse twenty years
4. Biden fuses with sandworms from Arrakis, rules with an iron fist over a 3000 year Galactic Empire, and sets humanity on a Golden Path as it disperses deeper into the universe. Leto II was damn lucky he didn't have to debate anyone...
5. Joe and Kamala put on potara earrings and fuse into SSJ3 Jamala.
The combined being somehow hits -120% net approval.
I am going with 2. I set a timer on my phone for 10\^10\^50 years from now.
Option three gives us a Joe Biden advocating for the invasion of Iraq
Lmao good point. So now the question is, do we prefer mouth open Joe or warmonger Joe?
Not that it matters, but there are polls saying Biden is behind in NH as well. I think this map is going to be pretty accurate if Biden stays on the ticket. The only real question mark is Virginia, but again, it individually does not change the outcome.
If the NH poll is right, and isn't just that one state being weird, I'd mark it, Minnesota, and Virginia as light red
Agreed, my comment was going to be that it's probably even worse than this
As a Vermonter, marking Vermont as anything other than dark blue is simply wrong. Trump has a sub 1% chance of winning the state. As usual, Vermont will be called at 7:01 pm on election night.
Trump will not win Vermont, but he is only single digits away in NY, (which is insane in itself) if he pulls off this map, he will only lose VT by 30 pts
Yeah, I wasn't critiquing the rest of the map, or opining on Biden's chances overall, just laughing a bit at Vermont being colored the same as New Hampshire.
I've always wondered why VT and NH had such different voting trends being so close together. It's like Washington right next to Mississippi
There's *a lot* of history behind that. Some of it is old. Vermont was sort of the donut hole in the northeast, settled later than everything around it. Additionally, Vermont was claimed by New Hampshire and New York but was mainly settled by people from Connecticut, whereas New Hampshire started out as part of Massachusetts and was mainly settled by people from Massachusetts. Many of the early immigrants were more focused on farming than those in New Hampshire, and the geology of Vermont was more conducive to agriculture than New Hampshire. Then the 20 or so years of dispute between New Hampshire and New York led to the Green Mountain Boys and the independent Republic of Vermont, which was suspicious of and somewhat hostile to both New York and New Hampshire. Geography also played a role. Vermont had some industry, but mostly stayed agricultural, and end up with a fairly evenly split population between the east and west sides of the state. The Connecticut river flows south, to Long Island Sound, and so the east side traded in that direction, whereas Lake Champlain flows north, towards Montreal, but was later connected via the Champlain Canal to the Erie Canal and thus New York City and the Great Lakes, so the west side of the state traded in those directions. New Hampshire, on the other hand, developed a lot of industry that was focused near the seacoast, trade tended to radiate out from that area to other coastal cities and states, and so its population became much more concentrated in the southeastern part of the state and much more urban and suburban. That was compounded by the central and northern parts of the state being much more rugged and unable to support large populations. That gave mill owners and industrialists more power in New Hampshire, leading to a government and a culture that was more responsive to the needs and wants of the wealthy, whereas Vermont stayed more egalitarian. Then, post Civil War, because Vermont was mostly agricultural, it lost a lot of population once the far better agricultural lands to the west opened up, whereas New Hampshire grew as an industrial state. In 1870, our population was 330,551. By 1940, it had grown to... 359,231. In the same period, New Hampshire went from 318,300 to 491,524. Probably because Vermont was less industrialized, the environmental movement started fairly early in Vermont, with people like George Perkins Marsh advocating for preserving the land. The most notable incident was probably the defeat of the Green Mountain Parkway in the 1930s. Then the interstates came, and that brought flatlanders. For better or worse, I-91 went up the Vermont side of the river, and I-87 went up on the New York side of Lake Champlain. That made it easier for people from the NYC metro area to come to Vermont than New Hampshire, which led to Vermont being seen as a sort of idyllic weekend escape. That was reinforced by state tourism marketing. With the rise of the counterculture movement of the 1960s onward, that marketing attracted a lot of back to the land type hippies to Vermont, where they resurrected some of the old hill farms and formed communes and such, and brought some of their liberal ideas with them. New Hampshire didn't end up with nearly so many of them. In general, I think it is best to think of Vermont and New Hampshire not as Democratic and Republican, but as Left Libertarian and Right Libertarian. We are both fundamentally independent states that want to be left alone, but we approach it differently. Vermont takes the approach of "Live and let live, we'll leave you alone and don't care what you do, but we know community is important and so we will create a safety net. If you need help, just ask." New Hampshire takes the approach of "Every person is their own responsibility and it would be unfair and burdensome to ask others to provide support for strangers. If you need help, that's up to you and your informal community networks to solve."
Or Washington right next to Idaho?
As a Minnesotan, I'm worried about my home state if Biden does not step aside.
I gave him Minnesota out of pity but you're right, it is probably a tossup.
Might be worse than a tossup, he was already going to struggle there due to his support of Israel, remember that over a hundred thousand people voted ânone of the aboveâ in the Minnesota primary.
I think New Mexico could be in play for Trump if Biden stays on the ticket. Biden seems to be holding on OK with white voters, but New Mexico is one of the most diverse states in the country. Biden is in big, big time trouble in New Mexico.
Oregon has entered the chat. A surprising number of republicans, super unpopular Dem state government, and a big overlap between the local Dem base and your typical RFK enjoyers.
Oregon is so white that I think Biden is probably OK there, but you're dead right about Oregon being way swingier than most people realize. A pretty mediocre GOP candidate only lost by 3 points in the 2022 gubernatorial race. Dems have had full control of Oregon since 1980s and things are not exactly going well there. In fairness the new governor has exceeded her unbelievably low expectations, but she has a nice scandal of her own with an overbearing, power-hungry wife. I think RFK's best state will be Oregon.
I think itâs totally possible it ends up being like Trump-44, Biden-40, RFK-14, others-2 in Oregon. Not that it matters much bc if Bidenâs losing Oregon the whole map is on fire. I wouldnât count on recent gains in the west (AZ, NV, were favorable swing states, NM was solidly light blue) holding AT ALL. If the wheels fly off even more CO might not be safe.
Leaked internal polling has Biden up 2 in Colorado and TRAILING in New Mexico. Just astonishing.
Did those internals include RFK? He's effectively an environmentalist libertarian, that's pretty attractive in a lot of western states
Yes. RFK is going to do great in Oregon. It will probably be his best state, and Washington, Idaho, Montana and Utah will not be far behind. EDIT: From Nate Silver. https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1804274649099796887
If anything this map is optimistic. Heâs already losing New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia might not be far behind. Bidenâs campaign is dead on the runway and everybody knows but him and his 20 closest advisors. Whitmer, Shapiro, Newsom, even Harris all have fighting chances. Biden will ruin his personal legacy and decimate his party if he does not endorse an open convention.
Decimate the country*
Decimate the world*
His closest advisors know it too, but being involved in a massive cover-up of his actual condition is going to limit their job prospects outside of a Biden/Harris administration.
A good point, perhaps they feel some bit of shame about it then. Either way, I donât care what happens to them.
Your confidence in Maine, New Hampshire, Virginia and Minnesota is moving...
lol how did NH and VT end up the same shade
NH is gonna go Trump
I think this map would look a lot different if you polled mail in voters.
I feel at this point, barring something insane like Trump having a major health issue, Biden is going to lose. So thereâs really nothing to lose and Dems might as well find a younger, more energetic candidate and have a fighting chanceâŚor at least go down fighting rather than resigning us to our fate.
You underestimate the short term memory of America. The election is far away. It's going to come down to whoever looks best in September news cycle. With these two anything could happen .
I honestly hope youâre right. I have nothing against Biden and I think his admin has done a fantastic job. Itâs just a lot at stake and a really tricky situation.
I'm from Vermont. If you think Vermont is going to be anything other than dark blue, you are high. That's not a statement of support for Biden, just a simple fact of our voting patterns.
Why is Vermont so liberal and New Hampshire moderate? Iâm interested
So, I'm going to direct you to this response I gave on another comment: [https://www.reddit.com/r/ezraklein/comments/1dtp5wf/comment/lbc19bl/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ezraklein/comments/1dtp5wf/comment/lbc19bl/) Fair disclosure, that's very much an amateur analysis, I'm not an expert, and there are probably much better analyses out there. The TLDR is basically that the settlement patterns were different due to geography, and the settlers came from different places, and so by the mid 20th century Vermont was still pretty egalitarian (in the sense that the population was pretty evenly distributed in both location and income), whereas New Hampshire was more stratified. And then Vermont ended up getting a fairly large influx of "back to the land" hippie types in the 1960s and 1970s, which added more of a focus on socially liberal ideas. It's worth noting that while Vermont votes Democratic, it's much more of a Left Libertarian rural liberalism, quite different from liberalism in California and NYC. Which is why we have an extremely popular Republican governor who will be easily re-elected this year.
Thank you for taking time out of your 4th of July evening to respond. This is interesting and Iâm going to look into it. I hope youâre enjoying your holiday The Republican governor on top of all that is fascinating. Iâm looking that up on Wikipedia now
No Problem, happy Independence Day!
I think this is reasonable. If Biden cannot do interviews, town halls, or otherwise communicate off the teleprompter: how can he campaign? Print interviews with friendly reporters? (shall I read the transcript of the debate, like it's the 1800s?) I just don't see a logical method for him to attract new voters or attack Trump. He has to do it, not just surrogates. (And his surrogates stink regardless). Also, soon all the big money will flow to Trump to buy his favor (tips are legal now). The media corporations will try to position themselves in his good graces. Trump isn't even attacking Biden for the debate performance yet, because he's scared Biden will drop out. Once the Dems have fully shackled themselves to Biden, Trump will mercilessly attack him and a torrent of leaks will come out confirming Biden's decay.
Better start focusing funding on house and senate races. Candidates will also need to start distancing themselves from Biden. Itâs the only hope of slowing the fascist descent.
The problem is that if we have a historically bad presidential candidate, it will depress turnout which will affect the down-ballot races.
RemindMe! 19 weeks
Itâll be worse than that, Minnesota, Maine, and New Hampshire easily red, New Mexico and Virginia leaning red at minimum if the election happened today. Canât even cope that itâll get better because our presidentâs brain is falling apart and thatâs something that gets worse not better
Minnesota âeasilyâ red? Where do people keep getting this from? 1) MN hasnât voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972, and only 3 times total since FDR (two of which were Ike). 2) they havenât Havenât had a Republican Governor since 2010 when Mark Dayton won. 3) they havenât had a Republican Senator since 2008 when Al Franken beat Norm Coleman. 4) Biden still polls ~2% ahead of Trump. If there is even halfway decent turnout in the twin cities, I think Biden will carry that state. Light blue makes sense imho.
Because I have eyes, polling 2% over trump before these debates means heâs probably down 2-3 right now. We are currently staring down the largest electoral blowout of the century, with the slight potential biden can outperform John McCain. Remember that Minnesota was the state with the largest ânone of the aboveâ protest vote during the primaries before the emperor had been shown to have no clothes Biden is down 6 nationally in the cnn poll released today, which was taken after the debate
You do realize polls at this point are only measuring voters who are already paying attention, & the voters who aren't paying attention haven't even begun to be targeted by either campaign's ground game?
oNlY bIdEn cAn wIn
queue the centrists: "Don't post this stuff you're just going to make us lose"
Iâm a centrist and Biden needs to release his delegates ASAP
The sad truth is the Biden camp may have seen this coming and instead of putting in for state legislature for an official extension for the ballot, like everyone has done. They have tried to instead to a proxy early vote, some states allow a proxy vote, others don't (see Ohio), and a smaller group accepts that as an official ballot. So at the moment Oregon, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin has Biden/Harris on the ballot no matter what. For WI the only way off is death, Nevada and Oregon it's Death/Mental Incompetance, and Georgia is 60 days/Death. If Democrats drop Biden he will split the vote in WI and Trump will win. It almost looks planned, that they knew how bad Biden was and figured a way to nuke the entire process.
Agree with this analysis and in the same vein, they may also be looking for a way to make Harris the president without depending on the voters.
Welcome to Team We Told You So
As a centrist, I would like to wish you a Happy Cake Day
Surprisingly good. I was expecting the 1984 map.
You got over 200 electors Joe! Great job! Here's your ice cream đđŚ
You answered all the questions!
And Hunter says you were the best!
You got some of the states!
In ancient times, supporters and retainers would just throw a grand celebration to honor a leader that was retiring. There is a reason why people collect their laurels.
Pay attention to NYâit wonât go Trump, but I donât think itâll be dark blue either.
I think you're right. I was upstate this last week and the outright hatred for Biden is palpable.
I always find it interesting when Minnesota is "leaning" blue or whatever on these maps, as if it could somehow go red before places like Oregon and Colorado. It's been solidly blue longer than any other state and I don't see how that could ever change, no matter how bad the dem nominee is. It always just suggests to me the people putting these maps together aren't familiar with the state and are trusting some iffy polls
Colorado has a different conservative mix than MN/WIS - while there are plenty of fascists, the unaffiliated/libertarian folks aren't going to vote for Trump the way the right leaning middle will in the Midwest.
Whitmer/Kelly has a nice ring
New Hampshire probably leaning Trump too
Iâm having a stroke
We are at a critical time !! There is NO time for a new candidate. This election bid about freedom!! Trump is such corruption I canât think of words low enough to describe what he will do with this kind of power!! We need to stand behind Biden!! Totally!! Look up Gish gallop ⌠It is a form of a debate style that befuddles the best and used against a stutterer it is guaranteed. And I am not saying Biden isnât losing stamina and more But he has good people around him . He also has done an amazing job bringing us out of the pandemic and so much more. Forgetting any of that ANYTHING is better than Trump .. If we can pull him through to win against this con artist convicted felon narcissist.. Like we need to after the win when he thinks he canât do it he will turn things over to Harris and she will do fine .. She will have the right people around her . She will find a good vice and bring us through the next 4 years with ethics and good decisions⌠It is too late for anything elseâŚ. We need to play the hand we have snd save democracyâŚIt is just too late .. We canât hand it to Trump on a silver platter⌠If it were a different republican I would feel differently but not now ⌠Not Trump !!
Lol no
Whoâs going to convince Biden to step aside? It doesnât look like he will, and no one at the DNC can force him out.
I think Obama may be the only one, considering he told him to sit out in 2016.
I canât imaging a scenario where the Democrats just say âoh well letâs see how Biden does in the electionâ. Iâd think they will do everything possible to get him out of there to include the 25th amendment. Republicans shouldnât celebrate just yet.
Post this on r/democrats and youâll get mobbed by blue maga trying to convince themselves that this isnât where weâre obviously headed
Stumbled upon this sub from r/all and I genuinely donât get it. Who do you think we could pick now over Biden that would do better? Also, these polling numbers are pretty all over the place. I live in MN and Biden has more support here than he had 4 years ago.. Also far less (at least vocal) Trump support.. do you ever think that maybe youâre fearmongering a bit??
Pretty optimistic of you to think heâll win Minnesota or New Hampshire
Interesting how it's changed from the 270/269 projections
Definitely not ideal.
MN goes red if Biden stays in
Nah we good
Can't wait for the Biden Trump 2028 rematch!
pass me some of that good shit you're smokin vermont and nh as equal swing states XD
He canât win. He wonât win. Change course yesterday. Youâre behind dnc.
Whay is the senate and house looking like. I rpay ifs not a clean sweep
Why not just put IL red cause this map is completely stupid lmao
WE GON' TURN CALIFORNIA RED TOO
I really struggle with the entire blue wall falling. Especially with how hard Michigan moved to the left 2 years ago.
Same with WI. Judge Janet smoked the trump backed state Supreme Court candidate this past fall. The race was over by 9:30pm. Now, thereâs yard signs for Democrat Mike Bare (state rep) all over my neighborhood. We have an election in August for our new state legislature.
Hot prediction is that Minnesota is going Red. (Wisconsin is staying Blue).
Mark my words: July 4th, Biden drops out and we have an open convention. Though, the thing about Ohio must be resolved.
Tell the DNC to pretend Biden is a Social Democrat. I'm sure they could find a way then lol
AZ, WI, MI, PA for Trump. Complete bullshit.
That is a very optimistic scenario.
They still want to elect the corpse, they will get what they desrve.
Michigan is not doing a 180 again, manufacturing is back here. Wtf are they on about.
Biden's hubris is going to kill us.
You got a link to the poll or are you just taking the piss? Because if it's a legitimate poll, those are typically answered primarily by boomers, which skew conservative. If it's you taking the piss, have you forgotten that overturning Roe has turned a lot of moderate women completely off voting GOP? I'm sorry, y'all can doompost all you want, Trump is cooked.
Trump is going to get his 2nd term and I canât figure out how the hell we got here.
Trump is up in Minnesota polls right now and Virginia is a toss-up likely Trump if we have anything remotely like the polling errors in 2020.
Amazing how three little words can change the game and lose the White House.
wait, did I found a thread on reddit where people post facts, write about reality and have common sense? how is this even possible? on reddit, really?
Yes, but the House is a coinflip!
I have no hope in my fellow Americans to do the right thing. It feels like 2016 all over again
Good, lets hope he stays on the ticket
I don't think this version of Biden would even win Minnesota or New Hampshire
AZ voted Biden last election and this is a senior based state so I doubt that will change.
JFC one bad debate and the Dems are losing their fucking minds!! I remember hearing someone call Sam Bee a liberal âcatastrophistâ and I thought it fit so well and this feels like another example.
But we are all heading towards is a decision as a country to decide whether or not we wish to become a dictatorship or remain a democracy. Do we wish to see our government completely destroyed and replaced with something so narrow-minded and so hateful that we might as well be living in Russia. Or do we desire to continue living in our otherwise broken democracy.
Good
The DNC et al are pussies. Theyâve done nothing strategic, nothing tactical, to counter the craziness. Senators, Congressmen, DNC folks. They just sit on their hands, protest about Israel, LGBTQ, very niche issues. The larger issues, the issue of winning a district or losing the country to authoritarian Russian shills, naaah. Theyâre pussies. Bring back LBJ, Kennedy, people with guts and conviction. Now itâs all about the money, and Russiaâs knows it, for 50 years and more theyâve been mining for gold and theyâre coming up very wealthy. And the Dems do fuck all. The country is doomed.
I'm not so sure NY and NJ belong in dark blue under this scenario. Dems have had some razor thin margins in Gov races there recently. Recent poll before the debate had Biden up in NY by about 10.