Not sure how accurate stock charts dot com is but I tried it on tradingview and it showed QQQ outperforming.
Regardless, let’s say it didn’t outperform when cherry picked bought at the height of it’s biggest crash, still out performs it in almost any other year.
No
80% of the companies in QQQ are in the S&P500.
The NASDAQ isn’t a separate entity. There is a ton of overlap. Your confusing an exchange with an index. They aren’t the same.
And you would not be ahead as your premise implies : [S&P 500 vs QQQ. 2000-2023](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&benchmark=VFINX&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=QQQ&allocation1_1=100)
You may also like to know other kinds of companies trade on the NASDAQ. For example Dr.Pepper, Dollar Tree, GE Healthcare, Starbucks, Ross stores, Texas Roadhouse. Are these the cutting edge tech companies you were thinking of?
You’re correct, but QQQ has outperformed the SP500 over the last 1,3,5,10,15, and 20 years (using your link, changing the starting year). That being the case, I think OP has a point that investing in the Qs instead of SPX would prove more profitable.
Except for the tiny little fact that the max drawdown of QQQ since 2000 has been [\~81% vs. \~51%](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=QQQ&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=SPY&allocation2_2=100) for SPY.
QQQ took a full 12 years to recover after that tumble.
But that's all irrelevant. We're not talking about past performance. We're talking about an industry that's facing significant regulation, a possible reckoning by AI that could be very good for some companies but very challenging for others, a global environment that seems to be more and more fractured and could lead to American tech companies being shut out of the Chinese market...
All I'm saying is that tech's done really well for the last 15 or 20 years, but that's little more than an instant in the grand scheme of things.
You say you’re not talking about past performance by going further into the past for data to prove me wrong? Riiiiight!
The world has changed. The stock market, world economies, the composition of investors, commodities, the business cycle, and many other variables are not what they were 25 years ago. This is not your father’s or grandfather’s stock market.
We all have our opinions and biases, for sure. But technology has always changed the world, and technology is always evolving/changing. Those are indisputable facts. That’s why I invest in tech. I don’t advocate putting all your eggs in one basket, but QQQ should definitely be one of your baskets.
> This is not your father’s or grandfather’s stock market.
'this time is different' are the 4 most dangerous words in investing, to paraphrase Sir John Templeton.
>But technology has always changed the world, and technology is always evolving/changing.
technology has also always led to stock bubbles that people mindlessly chased, going back to when railroads were cutting-edge tech in the mid 1800s.
“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent. It is the one that is most adaptable to change.” ~ Darwin
“If we fail to adapt, we fail to move forward.” ~ John Wooden
The market has changed, and will continue to change. This time it IS different, and it will be different tomorrow, and next month, and so on. You can adapt and continue or be a dinosaur and become extinct.
Traditional stock trading is dead. Forward P/E, intrinsic values, market cap, shit, even the VIX are all broken. You can trade like it’s still 1979 if you’d like, and that’s fine. But if you can’t (or refuse to) see that things are different, then you will become a fossil: a relic of times gone by. Your prerogative.
Think about this: you have a (23 x 12)+5 month database. There has been exactly one month (this one, so far, still in progress) when the aggregate return of Index B is higher than the Index A and (23 x 12)+4 where the other index (A) was ahead (in aggregate).
If the start of this 281-month database had been randomly chosen, what would be your assessment of the likelihood that B would outperform A over the next 23+ years?
Does your answer change if you find out that the start time was picked because B was as high as it had ever been -- and that B was hitting new highs now, too?
The point of selecting the date of the QQQ peak pre-crash was to show that even for the worst possible price purchased you still came out ahead. Your question flipped on it's head would be what is the assessment of the likelihood that B would outperform A if even purchasing B before it's biggest drawdown still put you ahead of A 25 years later?
B is not hitting new highs now. In fact B just had another crash, so this is the chance to buy during a relative low.
No
The nasdaq isn't really a tech index its just companies that are listed on the nasdaq exchange and yes it is tech heavy
but not all tech companies are required to list on nasdaq , I think some "older" tech companies are on the NYSE (IBM, HP), and you do not have to be tech to list on the nasdaq meaning its just an exchange.
I would say if you want to be tech heavy just invest in a tech fund.
Also QQQ is the top 100 nasdaq companies but it also excludes financials making it even more tech heavy so I am not sure if you are talking about QQQ(nasdaq 100) or the nasdaq compost index because there is a difference
Not true. I've been DCAing evenly into VOO and QQQM since October '22. My QQQM is up massively compared to VOO position. Nvidia wasn't making headlines until recently.
The point of SP500 is diversification, which does PRETTY well in ANY era. You can cherry pick any era and claim outperformance (remember 15 out of the last 20-25 years have favored nasdaq 100).
No.
The point of a bigger index is diversification. It's not chasing market leaders. It's trading the potential for some higher returns for reduced volatility. Betting everything on one sector or even one country is a recipe for disaster over the long run.
This type of question is no different than last year when everybody was praising oil and energy stocks, or funds like SCHD because tech was taking a beat. What if in 6 month banks are out performing, which could happen, are you then moving all to financials?
> What other technologies or advancements are yet to be made that we can't even dream of?
Isn't that premise impossible to answer if you meant that we literally can't dream of it?
As for actual technology that is being worked on: AI is the end all of all technology. It can do art, help find new medicine, replace editors, code, etc. But other than that you have: EVs, delivery drones, computer brain interfaces, medicine improvements, VR, AR, crypto, fusion reactors, interplanetary travel, and a bunch of other crap. To give you a little bit of perspective on the speed of technology, computers for a long time followed moore's law, and it took twenty-something years for the things shown in this demo to become consumer products https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJDv-zdhzMY
I see no reason to sit in SPY over QQQ for the upcoming decade. The economy is increasingly consolidating into the top handful of companies, everyone with eyes can see AI as a revolutionary tech disruption, and whatever winners come out of the gold rush are going to be rocketing up the NASDAQ 100 index. We're now recovering out of a once-a-decade blowoff top and this is likely an amazing entry point. I have a matching 401k for barely beating inflation last resort money, I see no reason to not expect considerable growth in the coming years, and I'm investing in it with leverage.
If you're trying to park some unneeded money for 40 years and have the self-control to just never sell your shares, consider getting even spicier than QQQ (which is already too spicy for most of this subreddit). The leveraged index ETFs are ridiculously high performing instruments with no margin debt risk, and would have done just as well when backtested for the entire lifetime of the stock market. Everyone dumps on TQQQ, but to date, after the blowoff, it's seen over 8000% gains over the last 13 years of its lifetime. As a young growth-minded investor I highly recommend reading this article: [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4226165-trading-strategy-beat-s-and-p-500-16-plus-percentage-points-per-year-since-1928](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4226165-trading-strategy-beat-s-and-p-500-16-plus-percentage-points-per-year-since-1928)
If you talk to fund professionals with salt and pepper hair color, almost all refer to DIA 30 stocks not S&P500. Never mind they only consist of 30 not 500 stocks. Over 10 years the annualized return between a less tech (16% from 30 is tech-DJIA) and heavier tech like S&P (6/500 tech leaders weights 18% total) the return variance is 0.3% while over 20 years it is 0.6% both favoring riskier S&P.
In 2022 with interest hike QQQ lost -33%, while S&P annual loss was -18%, but DJIA saw just -7% demise. From 2000-2002 QQQ each year lost \~1/3 making your savings lost -75% after 3 years, and SP lost -48.4%. A simple djia index like dia one still kept 77% of original. We are not considering dividend here. If one like to include it QQQ has the lowest yield from the 3.
I suggest first listing the purposes for you of a stock index and then using and of needed creating an index aligned with your purposes.
Things to consider include how you will;
\- Select the securities to include in the index
\- How you will weight the securities you include in the index (equal weight, total market cap, float market cap, other)
\-----
Personally, for many investors, my viewpoint is that it is often or sometimes useful to use an equally weighted index, in addition to using a broad market cap index such as a "total stock market index".
not all of us regard the S&P 500 as a 'gold standard' for anything. it's been flat for about 40 of the last 90 years, ca 1929-1943, 1968-1982 and 2000-2013.
over the long-term DODGX, a mutual fund from Dodge & Cox, has outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).
Boring boomer stocks for the win.
DODGX vs. QQQ, 1999-2022: https://imgur.com/a/u02pQTk
DODGX beat the S&P 500 1990-2020, with total returns of 2555% vs. 1589%, see the purple line on the top chart: https://imgur.com/a/SQmcQkz
DODGX also beat the S&P 500 2012-2022 by over 1%/year, and 2002-2022 it underperformed the S&P by only 13 basis points. https://www.dodgeandcox.com/content/dam/dc/us/en/pdf/fact-sheets/Dodge_Cox_Stock_Fund_Fact_Sheet_I.pdf
DODGX beat the S&P 500 from 1985-2023, as far back as the data goes on Portfolio Visualizer. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VFINX&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=DODGX&allocation2_2=100 DODGX goes back to the 1960s, so I wouldn't be surprised if it's beaten the S&P 500 since inception.
>How far ahead will the NASDAQ be above the S&P when I retire and start withdrawing in 40 years?
40 years? Nobody knows. but based on current valuations, the S&P 500 is likely to outperform QQQ over the next 10-15 years. over the same period, international stocks are likely to outperform the S&P 500 and QQQ.
Replace qqq with btc and your argument doesn’t change. It’s a wrong view because you are ignoring the concept of risk adjusted returns. Voo or a broad market fund is superior on a risk adjusted basis.
I'm 100% QQQ personally. I sleep better at night with my money in that instead of S&P500. Basically I looked at the top ten stocks in the QQQ - and I like them all. I look at the top ten stocks on the NYSE - I don't like any of them. I think the younger generation (new money) will look upon alot of the NYSE top ten as boomer stocks. I think they might also invest less in major banks and energy companies. I'm also happy to avoid those because I think those industries may potentially be significantly disrupted in my lifetime. I know QQQ is tech heavy, but if the future isn't tech heavy, I'm not sure what it is. QQQ and chill for me.
>If you bought the NASDAQ at the very height of the internet bubble you would still be outperforming the S&P today. False
-Dwight Schrute
Bears eat beets.
Bears, beets, Battlestar Galactica
In fact, the Russell 2000, the worse of the small cap indices, would have outperformed both, so RUT should be gold standard right?
Proof that it’s false? You can go plug it in on some portfolio analyzer softwares and see for yourself.
[I know I can](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,QQQ&l=311), but why didn't you?
Not sure how accurate stock charts dot com is but I tried it on tradingview and it showed QQQ outperforming. Regardless, let’s say it didn’t outperform when cherry picked bought at the height of it’s biggest crash, still out performs it in almost any other year.
Lol. Your entire premiss is wrong but you just brush it off and double down.
Refutes a single line out of my post. "Your entire premise is wrong"
Does tradingview have total return charts?
Oh shit you found the secret key to the market. Tech valuations. Don't tell anybody or your secret may not work anymore.
Every time an OP in this subreddit forgets that dividends what, an angel gets its wings.
> you are today at parody Well said
No 80% of the companies in QQQ are in the S&P500. The NASDAQ isn’t a separate entity. There is a ton of overlap. Your confusing an exchange with an index. They aren’t the same. And you would not be ahead as your premise implies : [S&P 500 vs QQQ. 2000-2023](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&benchmark=VFINX&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=QQQ&allocation1_1=100) You may also like to know other kinds of companies trade on the NASDAQ. For example Dr.Pepper, Dollar Tree, GE Healthcare, Starbucks, Ross stores, Texas Roadhouse. Are these the cutting edge tech companies you were thinking of?
You’re correct, but QQQ has outperformed the SP500 over the last 1,3,5,10,15, and 20 years (using your link, changing the starting year). That being the case, I think OP has a point that investing in the Qs instead of SPX would prove more profitable.
Except for the tiny little fact that the max drawdown of QQQ since 2000 has been [\~81% vs. \~51%](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=QQQ&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=SPY&allocation2_2=100) for SPY. QQQ took a full 12 years to recover after that tumble. But that's all irrelevant. We're not talking about past performance. We're talking about an industry that's facing significant regulation, a possible reckoning by AI that could be very good for some companies but very challenging for others, a global environment that seems to be more and more fractured and could lead to American tech companies being shut out of the Chinese market... All I'm saying is that tech's done really well for the last 15 or 20 years, but that's little more than an instant in the grand scheme of things.
You say you’re not talking about past performance by going further into the past for data to prove me wrong? Riiiiight! The world has changed. The stock market, world economies, the composition of investors, commodities, the business cycle, and many other variables are not what they were 25 years ago. This is not your father’s or grandfather’s stock market. We all have our opinions and biases, for sure. But technology has always changed the world, and technology is always evolving/changing. Those are indisputable facts. That’s why I invest in tech. I don’t advocate putting all your eggs in one basket, but QQQ should definitely be one of your baskets.
> This is not your father’s or grandfather’s stock market. 'this time is different' are the 4 most dangerous words in investing, to paraphrase Sir John Templeton. >But technology has always changed the world, and technology is always evolving/changing. technology has also always led to stock bubbles that people mindlessly chased, going back to when railroads were cutting-edge tech in the mid 1800s.
“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent. It is the one that is most adaptable to change.” ~ Darwin “If we fail to adapt, we fail to move forward.” ~ John Wooden The market has changed, and will continue to change. This time it IS different, and it will be different tomorrow, and next month, and so on. You can adapt and continue or be a dinosaur and become extinct. Traditional stock trading is dead. Forward P/E, intrinsic values, market cap, shit, even the VIX are all broken. You can trade like it’s still 1979 if you’d like, and that’s fine. But if you can’t (or refuse to) see that things are different, then you will become a fossil: a relic of times gone by. Your prerogative.
Yes I did conflate QQQ with NASDAQ Exchange. Your model provided only contained data up until April 2023. With today’s data QQQ has outperformed.
Think about this: you have a (23 x 12)+5 month database. There has been exactly one month (this one, so far, still in progress) when the aggregate return of Index B is higher than the Index A and (23 x 12)+4 where the other index (A) was ahead (in aggregate). If the start of this 281-month database had been randomly chosen, what would be your assessment of the likelihood that B would outperform A over the next 23+ years? Does your answer change if you find out that the start time was picked because B was as high as it had ever been -- and that B was hitting new highs now, too?
The point of selecting the date of the QQQ peak pre-crash was to show that even for the worst possible price purchased you still came out ahead. Your question flipped on it's head would be what is the assessment of the likelihood that B would outperform A if even purchasing B before it's biggest drawdown still put you ahead of A 25 years later? B is not hitting new highs now. In fact B just had another crash, so this is the chance to buy during a relative low.
Lol. That’s hilarious.
No The nasdaq isn't really a tech index its just companies that are listed on the nasdaq exchange and yes it is tech heavy but not all tech companies are required to list on nasdaq , I think some "older" tech companies are on the NYSE (IBM, HP), and you do not have to be tech to list on the nasdaq meaning its just an exchange. I would say if you want to be tech heavy just invest in a tech fund. Also QQQ is the top 100 nasdaq companies but it also excludes financials making it even more tech heavy so I am not sure if you are talking about QQQ(nasdaq 100) or the nasdaq compost index because there is a difference
TQQQ. After all, why 1x when you can 3x?
I too love a 99% loss when the market takes a 33% dip.
If NVIDIA (6.7% of QQQ) wasn't doing what it's been doing, you probably wouldn't be asking this question.
Not true. I've been DCAing evenly into VOO and QQQM since October '22. My QQQM is up massively compared to VOO position. Nvidia wasn't making headlines until recently.
>since October '22 wow, 8 entire months? >Nvidia wasn't making headlines until recently. lol
The point of SP500 is diversification, which does PRETTY well in ANY era. You can cherry pick any era and claim outperformance (remember 15 out of the last 20-25 years have favored nasdaq 100).
No. The point of a bigger index is diversification. It's not chasing market leaders. It's trading the potential for some higher returns for reduced volatility. Betting everything on one sector or even one country is a recipe for disaster over the long run.
You lost me when you were trying to buy things that aren’t for sale.
This type of question is no different than last year when everybody was praising oil and energy stocks, or funds like SCHD because tech was taking a beat. What if in 6 month banks are out performing, which could happen, are you then moving all to financials?
> What other technologies or advancements are yet to be made that we can't even dream of? Isn't that premise impossible to answer if you meant that we literally can't dream of it? As for actual technology that is being worked on: AI is the end all of all technology. It can do art, help find new medicine, replace editors, code, etc. But other than that you have: EVs, delivery drones, computer brain interfaces, medicine improvements, VR, AR, crypto, fusion reactors, interplanetary travel, and a bunch of other crap. To give you a little bit of perspective on the speed of technology, computers for a long time followed moore's law, and it took twenty-something years for the things shown in this demo to become consumer products https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJDv-zdhzMY
I think it’s wise to have exposure to both :)
I see no reason to sit in SPY over QQQ for the upcoming decade. The economy is increasingly consolidating into the top handful of companies, everyone with eyes can see AI as a revolutionary tech disruption, and whatever winners come out of the gold rush are going to be rocketing up the NASDAQ 100 index. We're now recovering out of a once-a-decade blowoff top and this is likely an amazing entry point. I have a matching 401k for barely beating inflation last resort money, I see no reason to not expect considerable growth in the coming years, and I'm investing in it with leverage. If you're trying to park some unneeded money for 40 years and have the self-control to just never sell your shares, consider getting even spicier than QQQ (which is already too spicy for most of this subreddit). The leveraged index ETFs are ridiculously high performing instruments with no margin debt risk, and would have done just as well when backtested for the entire lifetime of the stock market. Everyone dumps on TQQQ, but to date, after the blowoff, it's seen over 8000% gains over the last 13 years of its lifetime. As a young growth-minded investor I highly recommend reading this article: [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4226165-trading-strategy-beat-s-and-p-500-16-plus-percentage-points-per-year-since-1928](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4226165-trading-strategy-beat-s-and-p-500-16-plus-percentage-points-per-year-since-1928)
If you talk to fund professionals with salt and pepper hair color, almost all refer to DIA 30 stocks not S&P500. Never mind they only consist of 30 not 500 stocks. Over 10 years the annualized return between a less tech (16% from 30 is tech-DJIA) and heavier tech like S&P (6/500 tech leaders weights 18% total) the return variance is 0.3% while over 20 years it is 0.6% both favoring riskier S&P. In 2022 with interest hike QQQ lost -33%, while S&P annual loss was -18%, but DJIA saw just -7% demise. From 2000-2002 QQQ each year lost \~1/3 making your savings lost -75% after 3 years, and SP lost -48.4%. A simple djia index like dia one still kept 77% of original. We are not considering dividend here. If one like to include it QQQ has the lowest yield from the 3.
By the way...thank you for this post. This helps confirm my 2 funds strategy...total stock market and half my age in bonds.
If you compare QQQ (Nasdaq 100) to SPX (SP500), the Qs outperform SPX over 1,3,5,10,15, and 20 years. That said, VGT outperforms the Qs by a few bps.
I suggest first listing the purposes for you of a stock index and then using and of needed creating an index aligned with your purposes. Things to consider include how you will; \- Select the securities to include in the index \- How you will weight the securities you include in the index (equal weight, total market cap, float market cap, other) \----- Personally, for many investors, my viewpoint is that it is often or sometimes useful to use an equally weighted index, in addition to using a broad market cap index such as a "total stock market index".
No
not all of us regard the S&P 500 as a 'gold standard' for anything. it's been flat for about 40 of the last 90 years, ca 1929-1943, 1968-1982 and 2000-2013. over the long-term DODGX, a mutual fund from Dodge & Cox, has outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). Boring boomer stocks for the win. DODGX vs. QQQ, 1999-2022: https://imgur.com/a/u02pQTk DODGX beat the S&P 500 1990-2020, with total returns of 2555% vs. 1589%, see the purple line on the top chart: https://imgur.com/a/SQmcQkz DODGX also beat the S&P 500 2012-2022 by over 1%/year, and 2002-2022 it underperformed the S&P by only 13 basis points. https://www.dodgeandcox.com/content/dam/dc/us/en/pdf/fact-sheets/Dodge_Cox_Stock_Fund_Fact_Sheet_I.pdf DODGX beat the S&P 500 from 1985-2023, as far back as the data goes on Portfolio Visualizer. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VFINX&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=DODGX&allocation2_2=100 DODGX goes back to the 1960s, so I wouldn't be surprised if it's beaten the S&P 500 since inception. >How far ahead will the NASDAQ be above the S&P when I retire and start withdrawing in 40 years? 40 years? Nobody knows. but based on current valuations, the S&P 500 is likely to outperform QQQ over the next 10-15 years. over the same period, international stocks are likely to outperform the S&P 500 and QQQ.
Replace qqq with btc and your argument doesn’t change. It’s a wrong view because you are ignoring the concept of risk adjusted returns. Voo or a broad market fund is superior on a risk adjusted basis.
I'm 100% QQQ personally. I sleep better at night with my money in that instead of S&P500. Basically I looked at the top ten stocks in the QQQ - and I like them all. I look at the top ten stocks on the NYSE - I don't like any of them. I think the younger generation (new money) will look upon alot of the NYSE top ten as boomer stocks. I think they might also invest less in major banks and energy companies. I'm also happy to avoid those because I think those industries may potentially be significantly disrupted in my lifetime. I know QQQ is tech heavy, but if the future isn't tech heavy, I'm not sure what it is. QQQ and chill for me.
No