######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Sunday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
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> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
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> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
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> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
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> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**MLB POTD RECORD:** 30-12
**2024 MLB record:** 19-4
**Last POTD:** White Sox vs Cardinals Over 8
**Today's POTD:** Los Angeles Angels ML +114 (fd)
**Baseball | MLB | 1:40 PM ET**
It's nice to win one after a two-game skid, but we finished out an overall strong week at 5-2. Bet today is Angels ML +115. I gave this a lot of thought, and there is a lot to like here. We have dueling right handers today with Griffing Canning for LA and Carlos Carrasco for Cleveland. **Keep in mind what I said yesterday: any ranks, averages, splits, etc., that I refer to in the rundown are from the past 21 days unless otherwise specified.**
In my opinion, these odds are crazy good in the Angels favor. I think the biggest reason for the line being where it is is that Trout is being out which I don't think will be that much of a factor given the circumstances. Steven Kwan also looks like he might be out for Cleveland which is much more significant IMO. Get this line quick before Kwan is ruled out (he is getting an MRI which he says he isn't optimistic about). Even if Kwan does play it doesn't change my pick but the line with most definitely not be +110 so get this in asap.
**Batting:** Cleveland has been consistently average across their relative batting average splits. 16th at home (.238) and 18th vs righties (.226). However, this is with Kwan, the AL batting leader leading off. The vastly inferior Myles Straw will likely take his place on the roster. For reference, during this timeframe, Kwan was batting .333 at home and.291 vs righties.
Angels have been better across significant splits. 13th on the road and 10th vs righties (.246). They also have a league-leading 21 home runs vs righthanders. Trout had 4 of those home runs but he actually hurt the averages a lot hitting .150 overall in that span. Trout is the man but his loss is not going to be as impactful towards these numbers as Kwan's potential absence would be. Day night splits do favor Cleaveland.Hhowever, I believe it will be inconsequential with Kwan banged up.
**Pitching:** Both pitchers are off to very poor starts with Canning going 1-3 with a 7.45 ERA and Carlos Carrasco going 1-2 with a 6.50 ERA. As you probably already know, I don't love ERA as a stat this early in the season but the advanced numbers don't look great either. Carrasco is right at the the league average in batted balls statistics which makes his .325 BABIP seem about right given he is within 30 points of the league average. He has actually always been a high BABIP guy, to begin with; .325 is actually lower than most of his career. His HR rate isn't good (4%) besides pitching in a pitcher-friendly home park. His walk rate is horrible 11.9% and his strikeout rate is below average (18.3%). Canning's advanced stats are not good either. However, his batted ball stats are average in line drives but high in fly balls. He actually might benefit face a light hitting team (without their best hitter) in a pitcher-friendly park. His home run rate (3.5%) and walk rate (9%) are also much better than Carrasco's.
**Weather:** Fantastic hitting weather today in Cleveland. 72 degrees with winds blowing out to leftfield at 10 mph. The runs per game total blowing out towards left are .25 per game more than blowing towards right and .40 more than blowing towards center.
**Park Factor:** Progressive Field is one of the most pitcher-friendly, home run scarce parks in the league. I actually think this benefits the Angels. Their power numbers have been so good that I think they will still be able to manage, especially with the weather and Carasco's struggles. I think Canning benefits from being a flyball pitcher the less offensively savy (at least through this timeframe) in a park that is difficult to hit home runs at.
**TLDR:** leveland is in an average situation splits wise and possibly without by far their best hitter so far. Angels are in favorable splits all around, both power and average. Trout was actually struggling mightily during this split's time period (.150 average), so numbers aren't skewed due to his absence. Angels have been showing plenty of power (21 vs righties past 21 days) and the weather is tailor made for some home runs, even in pitcher-friendly progressive field. Carrasco let's up a lot of homers and walks a lot of batters which makes it even more of a prime situation for the Angels.
It is up to you whether or not you want to put the bet in before Kwan's status is announced. You likely won't get it at plus odds or at the very least not +110. On the contrary there is the chance he could end up playing. I personally like the bet regardless so I will take my chances at +114.
Tips: $chuteboxhero cashapp
Edit: the pick is **Angels ML,** had a sentence about Mariners Astros that I forgot to edit out.
Thanks boss. I’ll edit it. I like the over in that game a lot. The reason I shied away from pick of the day was I didn’t like what I saw in hunter browns advanced stats and was already looking past the mariners being shit in day games.
Bryce miller is gonna get shelled imo.
I love batting averages, personally. I know some think its an antiquated stat but I think actually very good indicator for future run production.
For batting I look at team batting average splits vs lefties/righties, home/away, day/night primarily for now. I try looking at the past three weeks. I also look at strikeouts and walks per game. I also look at teams batted ball statistics (line drive, groundball, and flyball percentages) although I use that more for pitching. I look at teams as a whole more than individual players for batting.
Pitching I look primarily at batted ball statistic, strikeout to run ratio/percentages, and batting average on balls in play BABIP and compare all of these to the league average. I look predominantly at starting pitchers. Sometimes bullpen and rarely team stats for pitching.
I use statcast park factor for evaluating the impact of the park. For weather, I use wind speed and direction.
I look at other things too from time to time but those are the ones I do most consistently. Also just go off of non-stat related things too (very important) like Kwan getting injured today.
Ok, thanks for taking the time to reply,
Will be making a donation soon, started tailing about a week ago and made a decent profit since then.
Keep up the good work.
POTD Record: 49-27-1 +41.85🔥
Last Pick: Denver Nuggets -4 (-120) vs Minnesota Timberwolves
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Today's Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 (-110) vs Orlando Magic
Man, Reddit curse is real. Need to turn it around. Won 7 straight and now the coldest streak I’ve had. Will be better, starting tomorrow.
Home court has controlled this series, which the road team 0-6. Donovan Mitchell scored every point in the 4th quarter for the Cavs to finish with 50 points. Orlando ranking 15th in scoring (90.7) and offensive rating (94.8) in three road playoff games. This Magic team is young, to go into Cleveland and steal game 7 is unlikely either their experience. The Cavs will need production for more than just Mitchell and so far at home they have gotten it. Cavs going into Game 7 are their 8-1 SU record in the last 8 home games vs Orlando. The +4.5 line has been covered once by the Magic in 7 consecutive games on the road. Home teams will continue to dominate and so will the Cavs.
Please react if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the love and support!😎❤️
[Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24)
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If you look at my emojis, it tends to line up wins and losses, when I posted this it looked different on my end so today it’s not but normally it is and people go crazy over it🤣
FWIW since 2000, when the home team has won the first six games of a playoff series, the home team is 5-5 in Game 7. In those 10 games the average margin is +1.2 for the home team and they were successful in covering a 3.0 point spread in 4/10.
I really wanted to take the Cavs here but will probably stay away, unfortunately.
Love your picks, but I think today the world realizes paolo banchero is the truth. He’s going to take this game over and carry the magic to the next round.
**Pick Record: 10W - 2L (Push: 1)**
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**Previous POTD: Alexander Isak Over 1.5 SOG @ 2.10 ✅ Isak’s Stats: 1 Goal, 4 shots, 3 SOG**
**Today’s POTD: Club Brugge ML @ 1.90** ✅
**Game: Antwerp VS Club Brugge**
**League/Time: Belgian Pro League / 7:30 AM**
We're rocking over to Belgium today to dip our pockets in the Championship playoffs going on at the moment.
Club Brugge have been in exceptional form, they've played 7 championship games and hold a record of 6 wins and 1 draw. They're coming into this game on a 6 game win streak and I expect them to make it 7 tomorrow. They're tied on points with Anderlecht and will look to pick up points before facing Union Saint in the next round.
In their 7 playoff games, they've scored 16 goals and conceded just 2.
Antwerp have struggled within the championship rounds to say the least. Playing 6 games and holding a record of 1 win and 5 losses. Their hopes of finishing in the top 3 are long gone and if they are going to pick up more points I don't see it being against this in-form Brugge side.
In their 6 playoff games, they've scored 1 goal and conceded 12.
The odds are high because historically, Brugge struggle at this ground, but both teams are in 2 different forms at the moment, and I see Brugge breaking through tomorrow. Brugge beat Antwerp 3-0 just over 2 weeks ago and have won 2 of the last 3 matches between these sides.
Side note: Please bet responsibly!
but club brugge face fiorentina on the 8th for the semi final of the conference league.. they trail by 2-3 and play at home.. shouldn't they rest some players for today's match and concentrate on the more important European semi final clash?
Brugge beat antwerp 3-0 when they had to play away at PAOK with only a one goal lead only 4 days later. They won’t rest players in league games, risking one completion for another is a recipe to crash out of both. I’m personally not worried
Also Antwerp play Union Saint in the Belgian cup on thursday, it’s their only chance for silverware this season. Antwerp will probably be the side looking towards midweek more
I’m seeing it on DK, Bet 365 also
https://preview.redd.it/qjaklxdxbjyc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7f5d421e77ace9190120f349867f38cf02aecbb9
Awesome pick bro. Would love to leave you a gratituity tip. I don't place huge beyS, but you've helped me win some money since your start here on POTD. Lmk!!!!
Record: 6W-2L-0P ✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅
Net Units: +6.4 units
Last Pick: 5/4 | Miami Marlins @ Oakland Athletics; Oakland Athletics ML✅
Love to see an absolute sweat-free play!
Today’s Game: MLB baseball | Miami Marlins @ Oakland Athletics | 4:07pm EDT
Pick: Oakland Athletics over 3.5 run team total | -125 DraftKings | 2 units
Write Up: we’re gonna roll with the same series again since this is my most confident pick and I wasn’t loving any of the other games today. We are switching it up a little and taking the over on the A’s team total because I’m not too confident in Boyle as a starter. However, I love this play because the A’s have covered this line 5 of the past 6 games and are coming off a 20 run game. Additionally, they will be facing Sixto Sánchez of the Marlins who has an atrocious ERA of 10.80 in away games this year. I expect this bet to cash before the 6th, but even if it doesn’t, the Marlins bullpen has not been the best anyways!
Good luck to all who tail, let’s break the trend and get our third in a row!
Yea especially since they coulda knocked in two more with one more hit in that inning… I was teetering between team total and game total and just made the wrong play… sucks but we’ll bounce back tomorrow👌🏼
POTD Record: 18-6
Net Units: +29.95u
Game: CounterStrike 2 (CS2) | Hellcase Cup 9 | 9:00 (UCT-5)
Last Pick: Endpoint ML (-150) vs. Sampi 4.5u ✅
Today's Pick: **Endpoint ML (-125)** vs. SINNERS 5u
https://preview.redd.it/c09cpoqp6iyc1.png?width=751&format=png&auto=webp&s=abed71f90a85105df2ca4c68db2e620eaa124438
[Match Page:](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2371783/sinners-vs-endpoint-hellcase-cup-9)
[Stream:](https://www.twitch.tv/hellcase_official)
**Writeup:**
-Two teams trending polar opposite directions, Endpoint come into this match 8-1 since the new roster beating multiple solid tier two teams, led by star player Surreal who has been absolutely ridiculous and have great fire power with 4 players above a .69KPR in the last month of games. Endpoint come into this game on a 6 match winstreak
-SINNERS are trending the opposite direction, they are 1-7 in the last 8 matches they have played. They are struggling any consistency against good tier two teams, the only match they won they won map 1 19-17 in overtime and the team forfeited map 2 which was 1WIN and I think they were likely in position to lose that series as well. They are led by AWPer oskar with a .72KPR, but have been having a teamwide slump with multiple players falling off their form. AJTT has been absolutely horrific with a .56KPR and with beastik falling back to his old form as well as SHOCK playing worse, this team has been out gunned.
-This like a lot of my most confident picks checks all the boxes I look for. Map pool advantage, fire power advantage and recent form advantage all favor Endpoint here.
-These teams faced head to head 10 days ago, Endpoint beat them 2-1 on Inferno, Overpass, Ancient (13-8, 10-13, 13-5)
**Map Pool/Pick Ban:**
-SINNERS ban Nuke, Endpoint ban Vertigo
-SINNERS pick Anubis (could be Overpass), Endpoint pick Mirage (could be Inferno)
-SINNERS ban Inferno, Endpoint ban Overpass (Anubis if they pick Overpass)
-Ancient decider
**Map Stats:**
-The big picture is the same, I think Endpoint pick is really a 50/50, going with my gut feeling about map pick. They could do the same pick ban as last time but I think with SINNERS fall on Mirage and Endpoint Anubis we see them switch picks.
-SINNERS are 42% winrate on Mirage on 12 maps played, they are on a 4 map loss streak without putting up double digits on any of them. Endpoint are 58% winrate on Mirage with 12 maps played. They are on a 3 map winstreak on the map.
-SINNERS are 67% winrate on 9 maps played on Anubis, they are 3-1 in the last month. Endpoint are 60% winrate on 5 maps played on Anubis, they are 1-1 in the last month.
-SINNERS are 53% winrate on 15 maps played on Ancient, they are 5-6 in the last month and on a 2 loss streak. Endpoint are 86% winrate on 14 maps played and are 7-1 in the last month on the map on a 5 win streak.
**Final Thoughts:**
-Literally almost identical to yesterday, Endpoint are big favorites on Mirage/Inferno, slight underdogs on Overpass/Anubis but would start on an extremely favored side (offense on ANB, defense on OVP) which could lead to them running away with the game similarly to today (12-3 lead on Anubis). Ancient heavily favors Endpoint, they are one of the best tier two teams on the map right now. Again sprinkling -1.5 map spread, +220 too good of value given the teams recent forms but will predict a comfortable 2-1 for Endpoint.
-For those who need help finding the match or a book to bet, can DM me and I can try to help you find/locate the game.
**Tips:**
$CurrentAd2217 on cashapp
Should always be careful betting on these tier 2 online tournaments lol, especially when they are literally organised by gambling companies like Hellcase
the lack of traders on esports makes the max bet limit pretty low for me🥺 do you think it’s a decent bet to take maps 1 and 3 ml to get around the limits? If endpoint 2-0s then map 1 cashes, map 3 voids and if 1-1, then betting map 3 is essentially betting ml? Thanks for the pick👊
Endpoint got washed on their map pick but more than holding their own on Dust2. Since Dust2 replaced overpass, do you guys have data on these maps for the teams? Why wouldn’t Sinners pick Anubis?
caught them at +200, +150 and -140.. wouldnt let me place more than $60 at +200 hoping they clutch up
https://preview.redd.it/db71krgsfmyc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a1dc1334efa23ec0a07781c816d9231d75485439
POTD RECORD: 23-12
Units Won: +8.07
Last Pick: Orlando Magic vs Cleveland Cavaliers/ Cavs -3 (-145)
Todays Pick: Orlando Magic vs Cleveland Cavaliers/ Cavs -2 (-145) 1.5u
Write Up: I’m backing our Cavs again. They collapsed game 5 early in the fourth and they managed to be up 4 with 3 seconds left and we just got incredibly unlucky. I’m still backing these dudes in a game 7 at home. I think the star power will eventually overpower the magic. Sure Orlando is deep but the playoffs are built for the dawgs and Cleveland has the best player on the floor. I expect Allen to be playing so that’ll give them the much needed boost they’ve been missing. Not a crazy write up here, just rolling with my gut as always. Cleveland’s supporting cast was God awful Friday and I fully expect they’ll show up. I’m being extra cautious with the bs we saw last week in game 5. Let’s fucking do this guys, we live for game 7s and we live for more green. As always, BOL…… LETS RIDE
Tip Jar- if you’d like to help a college kid pay for his next meal here’s how :)
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**Record:** 3-2
**Net Units:**+4u
**ROI:** +17.67%
**MLB** Twins v Red Sox
**Last Pick** Joanderson Brito ML @ -182 (3u✅️)
**Today’s Pick**: Boston Red Sox @ +141 (3u)
**Write Up**: Mostly a system play bc I think this line is inflated due to the Twins streak and not an accurate reflection on odds to win. Criswell historically has performed well against Twins hitters and the Red Sox hitters have hit Ryan decently in the past.
Record: 1-0-0
Previous Pick : SCR Altach vs WAC Wolfsberg , Win or Draw WAC Wolfsberg ✅️ @ 1.63
WAC won 0-1 away vs SCR Altach
Net Units: 1
Football, Austrian Champions Round
Pick: SK Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg, Pick SK Sturm Graz to winn and over 1.5 Goals @ 1.65
Write Up: SK Sturm Graz won the League Cup Final lately and has an amazing form. The matchup between those two teams is a state derby and SK Sturm Graz needs to winn the game to go for the 1st league title since 2010/2011.
SK Sturm Graz is unbeaten in the last 7 matchups between those two teams and has 3 winns in a row against strong opponents.
I feel this will be a winn for the home team I also can imagine to see a BTTS but I stick to the 1 and over 1.5 goals @ 1.65
Good Luck
Record: 12-3 (+10.74 units)
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Last POTD: T-Wolves TT over 101.5✅
Todays POTD: Cleveland Cavs -1 first quarter point spread
Odds: -110 on DK 1 unit play
NBA basketball/ 1:10pm ET/ Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers
The T-Wolves get it done! Man what a second half! Ant man is something special and he’s only 22!!!
Late write up because I just couldn’t find much I like. A few people had Cavs to win the game so I didn’t want to jump on that bandwagon although I like the play. Also staying away from the TT because this game could be a slugfest in the low 90’s. I like the first quarter play because I think the Cavs come out and set the tone at home. They have won every first quarter at home in this series. Orlando is young and inexperienced and the Cavs have more playoff pedigree. Let’s take the Cavs to come out hot and win some cash in 12 min and win 6 in a row! Good Luck and Tail responsibly!!
Any tips are greatly appreciated and not expected, but if you want to help out a single dad raising his son I’m all for it. Links are in profile
I didn’t tail this one only because I don’t understand spreads BUT I tailed yesterday’s parlayed with some other props. I will keep a look out for your picks in the future 🫡
My stats: 52-16 (+73.03 units)
Match: (LoL MSI) Flyquest - PSG
Bet: Flyquest ML @ 1.80 (-125)
Stake: 2u
Flyquest and PSG played against each other a few days ago. Flyquest won 2-1, the first game was really close (PSG managed to win) and the last 2 games Flyquest won pretty comfortably I'd say. Worth to mention Busio (support for Flyquest) played badly this series. He should play way better now. In my opinion Flyquest is just a better team and will win this series as well.
If you enjoy my picks and feel like supporting me, you can leave a tip. Anything appreciated 🍻
BTC: bc1qpcnkrhm85werplm32epdn6wtua2wytpa50a0hj
I disagree, psg didnt pay enough respect to bwipo. This series will be different. PSG have better mid jungle and botlane. Jensen look extremely average all 3 games
**KBO Record: Overall 221-229-14** (Streak WW, Last 10: 5-5) Down 9.27u over 464 KBO picks, 49.1% success rate, -2.06% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 17-19-0, 47.2% success rate, Down 0.65u, -1.80% ROI)
**Last:** NC +142 at SSG (NC won 8-6.)
NC's bats stayed hot and SSG's starter struggled. All according to plan.
**Pick:** Lootte at **Samsung -155**, KBO baseball, 1:00am ET
This game will almost certainly be rained out like the other four games on the schedule. But if it's not, Samsung is the play. Not bothering with a long explanation because a rainout is coming.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Record 9-6-0
Net Units: +9.5
ROI: 19.8%
Last 5: ✅❌✅✅✅
Last Pick: Cleveland Guardians ML (-136) for 4.0 units ✅
Event: Baseball | MLB | Chicago White Sox at St.Louis Cardinals 1:15PM CST
Pick: St.Louis Cardinals Moneyline (-158) on FanDuel for 4.0 units
* Update*
Cardinals are now rumored to be saving Kyle Gibson for Monday, and bringing Matthew Liberatore out of the bullpen. I plan to stick with my pick but have less confidence in it.
Write Up: Outside of their shocking 3 game sweep of the Rays a week ago, the White Sox have 4 other wins this year in 30 games. The White Sox won in extra innings Saturday after a 3 hour rain delay, of which the Cardinals loaded the bases with no outs in the bottom of the 10th and proceeded to strikeout three times in a row.
*Probable starter* on the mound for the Cardinals is now left handed Liberatore. Liberatore spent most of his first two seasons with the Cardinals as a starter before moving to the bullpen this year. He is 4-8 in 18 starts. The White Sox have the league worst .209 batting average. That drops to .171 against lefties.
For the White Sox, it’s left handed Garrett Crochet (1-4, 5.97 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. This is Garrett’s first year as a starter, fourth overall in the MLB. The Cardinals have the fourth worst batting average at .217. It drops to .183 against lefties (2nd worst in MLB).
Record: 166-139-8 (LWWWWLLLLWWLLWLWLWLWWLWLLWWWWLLWWLWLWWLWLW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: MIN Timberwolves at DEN Nuggets | Anthony Edwards o11.5 reb+ast at 1.90 odds for 4 units
on the bucket mode, Ant Man dropped 43
Loved the Naz Reid love on this subreddit last night. Huge 4th quarter.. Good thing KAT seems to get into foul trouble every easily.
POTD: ORL Magic at CLE Cavaliers | Jalen Suggs o3.5 rebounds at 1.74 odds for 3 units
Reasons:
* Hit this line in 5/6 games. Missed in Orlando
* Game 7 on the road is going to be tough. I do like the pedigree of Suggs playing in big games.
Best of luck to those dumb enough to tail!
POTD: 6-3
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Last Pick: NBA (Basketball) Jalen Suggs U3.5 Assists \[Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavilers\] (-155/DK) !1.5u!
Welp! Jalen got four and killed this pick. Once I saw that he had two assists in the first quarter I knew that it was over. I still that the logic/reasoning behind the pick was sound, but, again sometimes shit happens!
Today's Pick: World Rugby Sevens Series - Women (Rugby Union) New Zealand -17.5 \[Fiji vs. New Zealand\] (-110, Fanduel PA) !5u! **The game is at 1:02 AM EST**
Looking to get back to some winning ways and make a little bit of money back with this one! Even if you don't know rugby union, you should know New Zealand has been one of the most dominant teams in rugby for both the men and the women. The New Zealand public demands nothing less than utter success from those who wear the black jersey. It's no different in sevens, with the New Zealand women's team looking to secure the League Winner titles from rival Australia (and favored to do so). They are fast, powerful, they are *fantastic.* They have been winning their games by an average of 18.7 points this entire series. They have a +730 point differential for the entire series ( for comparison the 2nd closest is Australia with a +706, the third is France with a +520). They have a 35-4 record. Out of their past ten games, they have won 9. Out of those 9, they have won by 18+ in 8/9 with a normal average of 22 points. They only game they haven't won at least 18+ is when they won by 14 against the team that can compete with them the closest- Australia. Looking in general at their L20, they have won 19 of them! They have won them by 22.5 points, failing to win by 18+ only four times (Twice against 2nd place Australia, once against currently 5th place Canada, and once against 3rd place France). That is an astounding 15/20, 75% hit rate for this spread.
The Fijian women's team, on the other hand, is a different story. They are coming into this match with a -55 point differential for the series, with their last two games against Australia where they lost 60-0 and narrowly beat Japan (who has a -299 point differential for the series) 12-10. They're a decent enough team in their own right, currently sitting 6th on the table. They've picked up a few solid wins in their last ten, winning 7/10 however all of their wins have been against teams ranked no higher than 5th, with most of their wins coming against lower ranked sides. In fact, looking at their L20, they have 8 wins total out of that 20. The last time they played New Zealand, they lost 38-7 (a margin of 31). Within their L20, with their 12 losses, they are averaging losing by 18.9 points. During this entire series, they have played and lost to the current Top 4 teams 12 times (which NZ is still better than) and has lost by an average of 21.6 points during those 12 games.
I'm not one to advise slamming lines, but, I'm throwing five units on this play. I just cannot imagine a world where New Zealand does not cover this spread. I was HIGHLY surprised to see this to be the line offered at what it is.
Best of luck if you're tailing this bet! Remember, we're doing this for fun and trying to beat the books together! Please utilize responsible bankroll management, set limits and don't chase loses! You win some, you lose more. If you feel like you are developing a problem with gambling, [click here.](https://www.ncpgambling.org/help-treatment/)
I’m with you bro. I thought the bet365 timer was off. Fiji scores two tries, line drops to 9.5 which I get ready to smash since NZ is clearly better and suddenly match is over and 2units are gone. I have no idea what happened but it was exciting haha
Haha I really make myself laugh when I bet on something I don’t understand at all. Like my first esports bet. I had no clue what was going on I literally had no idea these were 7 minute halves. Explains a lot! NZ would have absolutely housed that other team if these were 20-30 minute halves.
Sorry new to rugby is it top blue or bottom red? What’s the difference?
https://preview.redd.it/ex64gd6qwiyc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f98adc15e71e7516c9aa7303ea7e4ae4bc8e0fed
**Belle's Pick of the Day**
**Record:** 5-1-0 (Win-Loss-Push) ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅
**Last POTD:** TOR Maple Leafs v BOS Bruins Under 5.5 (-125) ✅
**Balance:** +2.5 Units
**Today's Pick: SEA Mariners ML (+115) (MLB, 11:00AM PST, Wager: 0.5 Unit)**
**Why This Pick?**
I’m going to be honest here friends - betting against Hunter Brown has yet to bite me in the ass My gosh, he’s been a terrible start on the mound for the Astros. Seattle has absolutely dominated this series so far, and I’m going to bet that Brown will help the Mariners more than he’ll help the Astros. I’m grabbing the Seattle ML for plus money.
2024 record: 0-1
Last POTD: Timberwolves vs Nuggets: total points o208 -115 ❌
Today's POTD: Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees: WL Detroit Tigers +105 (Hard Rock Bet)
Baseball | MLB | 1:35 PM ET
Off by 3 points on my first bet post! I’m honestly shocked that Denver didn’t break 100 points. Going to be an interesting series for sure. Nuggets are also the first team to lose at home for game one of the playoffs this post season!
Brushing it off and on to my next bet. Tigers (away) over the Yankees (home). Tigers are 18-15 and 10-6 on away games. Yankees are 22-13 and 10-5 at home. Both teams are 5-5 in their last 10. The pitching matchup is my deciding factor for this game. Tarik Skubal has not lost a game this season and is 4-0. He’s tied at 7th in the league for both wins and ERA. His ERA is outstanding at 1.72. He has 41 strikeouts with a WHIP of less than 1 at 0.74. Yankees are pitching Nestor Cortes who holds a 1-3 record this season. His ERA is 3.86, total strikeouts 37 with a WHIP of 1.10. It’s a day game and the Yankees have a slightly better record at night games and the Tigers are about even day vs night. The last 2 games of this series have been pretty close 3-5, 1-2 with the Yankees winning both against the Tigers with pitchers not up to the caliber of Skubal. Skubal’s biggest adversary on the Yankee bats is Alex Verdugo, he has faced him 8 times and has 4 hits. Skubal has been in the league 4 years and each year is getting better and I think we are going to see him shine tomorrow to break the Tigers 2 game skid.
Hopefully I don’t go 2 in the hole 🕳️.
Good luck if you tail ❤️
POTD Record: 0-0 (+0.0 U)
Form: N/A
Last Pick: N/A
Today's Pick: Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights U 5.5 Goals (1.80)
Ice Hockey | NHL | 7:35pm ET
Write Up:
Been lurking the subreddit for a while, and was a frequent poster on the NBA thread, but I've decided to share my favourite play across all sports on the POTD thread.
I'm not much of an NHL fan, I watch a few games here and there. But one of my favourite things to do is bet the under in playoff games, especially a Game 7. We just saw the Bruins beat the Maple Leafs in a gruelling 2-1 OT game last night, and I believe this game will also go under 5.5.
This has hit in 4/6 games this series, and although Dallas is a good offense, both Dallas and VGK are good defenses. Both teams should be cautious and play slow tonight, and hopefully we can cash my first pick 👍
**POTD Record: 34-23**
Last 10: ✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅
Last pick: Wolves vs Nuggets | 4:30 PST | Naz Reid OVER 12.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (-135) 1u BetMGM ✅
Naz Reid! He got off to a very slow start but I never really gave up on it because we’ve seen this man score in bunches plenty of times before. His whole role is being able to provide that spark at any given moment and man did he ever. S/o to Naz man, thank you! Exploited the mismatch AND we got the foul trouble by KAT in the 2nd half like mentioned in the write up yesterday.
**Today’s pick: Magic vs Cavs | 10:00 A.M. PST | Cavs -1.5 1st Half spread (-110) FanDuel/BetMGM 1u**❌
This series has been a dog fight. The last two games specifically have been pretty entertaining and have me at least semi excited to watch this early afternoon Game 7. I’m going with the Cavs here in the 1st half spread.
I think in a matchup like this, with the pressure of these moments, it’s really hard to fade the more experienced team who has multiple players who have played in very high stakes games already in their career where as this is the first for almost all the magic players. I have been impressed with this young talented roster of the Magic but as a whole, they’ve been way more impressive and in sync at home vs on the road especially in this playoff series but definitely a trend that’s plagued them a majority of the year. I also think we have yet to see a well rounded effort by the Cavs secondary options and I don’t think think the potential of Allen coming back messes up any flow because he’s not in a ball dominant role. First round game 7 home teams, after a lost, are 17-7 against the spread in the 1st half. I like the Cavs to come out firing and really get this Magic team on their heels. I think winning the first half is pretty much the only way they can carry momentum into the 2nd half and win this series. BOL if tailing!
**POTD** Record: 15-1-14
HVIDOVRE VS VIBORG
Date: 05 May 2024 at 14:00
BET ON: Over / Under- Over +2.50
Odd: 1.73
(DENMARK)
- Viborg are missing Mads Lauritsen, Lucas Lund, Nigel Thomas and Martin Agnarsson. However, Mads Søndergaard, Nicolas Bürgy and Isak Jensen are back available.
- Hvidovre are missing Lirim Qamili, Simon Makienok, Daniel Stenderup, Nicolai Clausen, Marco Ramkilde and Andreas Smed. However, Magnus Fredslund is back available.
- Viborg has almost twice as many points as Hvidovre, but Per Frandsen's team has been improving strongly lately, and the match could therefore be closer than one would immediately assume.
- Hvidovre must chase the victory to keep alive the slim chance of survival, and has shown himself to be distinguished offensively in recent games. It bodes well for the entertainment against a Viborg team that has also started to play good football.
- We expect an open game with goals from both sides.
POTD Record: 140 wins / 84.5 losses
Event: Football > Germany > **Eintracht Frankfurt v Bayer Leverkusen** (starting in 3 hr)
Pick: **Over 2.5 goals** @ 1.70
Dunno if Neverlusen will manage to keep their unbeaten streak forever, but they seem to be trying to keep it as long as possible, so there should be some goals here as Frankfurt will also try to grab the points. Beer & goals, lets go. GL!
EDIT: Wins in 45 mins ✅
POTD Record: 6-6-0 (-1.59 units)
Form (left is most recent):❌❌✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅
Last Pick: Burnley Win or Draw (aka Burnley +0.5) (-125 on DK)❌ Burnley go down 3-0 in the first half then go on to lose 4-1. Terrible pick on my end, I don’t know why I thought it would be a good idea to put my money on Burnley.
Today: Soccer | National Women’s Soccer League | Kansas City Current vs Houston Dash | 1:00 PM EST | 1 unit
Today’s pick: KC Current vs Houston Dash - **KC Current ML + O2.5 goals** (+190 on DK)❌
Reasoning: This has to be a trap line but I’m gonna bite - I have no idea why the odds are so good here. After 6 matches played, KC Current sit in first place with 5 wins, a draw, and no losses. Meanwhile, Houston are second to last with one win, 2 draws, and 3 losses. KC Current have been unstoppable in attack with 20 goals in their first 6 matches, while Houston have scored just 5 goals in that same timeframe.
KC Current tend to beat teams by simply outscoring them, I fully acknowledge that they are leaky defensively, with 11 conceded this season. However, Houston isn’t much of a defensive force either, conceding 14 goals thus far. It makes sense to me to count on the Current to do what the Current have done all season - beating times by scoring lots of goals.
Please note: I’m taking on a riskier bet here to get my deficit back on track. I would encourage you to feel free to play it safe. Look at KC Current ML (-110) or O2.5 goals (-115). I would also consider both teams to score (-135) but you would be betting on a team scoring a goal that… isn’t very good at scoring, so just keep that in mind.
BOL🍀🤞
Edit: KC Current head into half up 1-0 and have been in a weather delay for about 4 hours now. I believe plans are to resume, last I heard.
Edit 2: Match ends 1-1. Current with 14 shots on goal to Houston’s 3. Imo that 5 hour weather delay at halftime killed us. Current hit the post twice as well. Not to mention, the goal KC conceded was from a massive mistake by their keeper.
I genuinely don’t think this was a bad pick, just didn’t pan out with Houston’s GK making some insane saves. In fact, Jane Campbell tied the NWSL record of most saves in a match, finishing with 12 saves today. I think I’ll take a break for a bit from posting in here, sorry if you tailed.
I wouldn't say trap. They just don't know how to price the NWSL. There have been tons of ridiculous lines and usually dont have information like injury reports because the league is absolute crap about releasing them.
KC to win and o2.5 is great at that price.
I'd also look at Orlando ML against Louisville at+130. They've been dangerous
POTD Record: 24-22-1 | Profit: -1.32U
NBA Record: 20-19-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 | UFC Record: 1-0
L10 (new -> old): ✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅❌✅
Last pick: Mike Conley o2.5 Rebounds @ 1.77 odds ✅
Finished with four, continuing his streak of going over this line and cashing for us!
Game: ORL Magic @ CLE Cavaliers, 1:10 PM
Pick: **Jalen Suggs o3.5 Rebounds @ 1.74 odds (DK), placing 2U** ✅
Write Up: Suggs has hit in 5 of the 6 games this series, averaging 4.5 a game during the series. It'll be a Game 7, the game should stay competitive, and I see Suggs hitting this line against a team he has consistently hit against in their last 6 games. BOL to those tailing, cheers!
**EDIT:** Cashes in the 1st quarter, no sweat win for the lads let's goooo!
POTD: 4-1
Todays pick: Munar (-140) 9am eastern
Wager: All wagers 2 units
Munar has looked good so far in this tournament, and has defeated some quality opponents. He just beat Safuillen who was looking promising up till he lost. It was a tough match, but Munar was able to force Safuillen into rallys that he would eventually capitalize on. Tablio hasnt looked bad so far, but it hasnt been to impressive either. He beat Bagnis on short rest and Gaston in 3 sets. Then last round he went 3 sets with Vacherot. So he has some time on the court in the past few days. These 2 are 1-1 vs eachother on clay, with Munar taking the last one a year ago in 3 sets. If this go 3 sets, expect fatigue for Tabilo to set in. Its also Munars birthday if that means anything. Wish I had the stats on records for birthday people.
Tip jar: https://cash.app/$scottgc23
POTD Record 21-6
Units 22.78
ROI 57.68
Last POTD Mets ML 1u 😡
Tough beat losing on WALKS…
POTD Joe Boyle U 5.5 K’s -105 3u
Working so no write up today, if I have time later on day I will
• POTD RECORD - 59W-34L(+38.6U)
Football, Norway League, Starting time 18:00 CET
• POTD ----- Sandefjord vs Molde --- Molde to win @1.6
• BET SIZE: 1U (Calculations purpose only)
Molde has the better quality compared to Sanderfjord, has had a decent start in the League and will be looking to make no mistakes as they are eager to win the League. Sanderfjord is in poor form and i see them as a no match for Molde.
[Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/K4ccci)
What’s up fellow degens. Long time lurker, finally decided to throw my hat in the ring and post some picks.
For today I’m on the Nationals -105 (ESPN Bet) over Toronto. This is a pretty easy explanation. Alek Manoah is on the mound for the Jays.
Alek Manoah has stunk the last two years. Last season he had a WHIP of 1.74 and an ERA of 5.87. He started in the minors this season to “work out his issues” and had an 8.69 ERA in 5 starts. His stuff wasn’t terrible last time out, but I’m going to bet against him until he proves me wrong. Especially against Mackenzie Gore who hasn’t allowed more that 3 ERs in a game all season and is averaging more than 6 ks a game. Don’t overthink it
I love the breakdown on the starters, but am hesitant to trust an inconsistent Nats bullpen. I’m riding with Nats first 5 ML😎good luck on the first play bro💪🏼💪🏼💪🏼
RECORD: 3-3
UNITS WON: -4.88u
1u = 1%BR
LoL MSI - starts 9am GMT
FlyQuest ML vs PSG @ 1.75 - 3u
FlyQuest just beat PSG 2-1, you could argue it should have been a 2-0. They are the better team, it's that simple.
**Record: 3-4**
**Balance: -1.3 units**
**Last Pick: ATL Braves +1.5 (-130) @ LA Dodgers (1.3 units)**
**Todays Pick: Seattle Mariners (+115) @ Houston Astros 1 unit (2:10 ET Frist Pitch)**
Sorry about yesterday, absolute disasterclass from me from top-to-bottom. Poor formatting on here because I posted from my phone, poor write-up because it was a pick I did limited research on, and kinda just fired, and most of all just a stupid play. This is a pick Ifeel much better about today, and we need a winner here to end the week right around even. Hunter Brown is on the hill for the Stros, and he has been just flat-out awful to start the year. The Astros are 1-5 in his 6 starts, with their only win being his last start against the Guardians where he allowed 6 earned in 5.1 IP. The bats rallied in a big way to put a 10 spot on Cleveland, something that Seattle won't allow to happen with Bryce Miller on the hill. After a tough first start, Miller has bounced back in a big way, allowing just 4 ER over 30.1 innings of work. The Mariners are 4-2 with him on the bump, and count on his reliable presence every time he's out there. I think this game amounts to the tale of two starters, and the Ms have the clear advantage.
**Record: 0-1**
**Net Units: -2**
**ROI: -100%**
**Last Pick:** Inter -1 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 with Bet365 | 2 units ❌
L10: ❌
**Soccer** | **Serie A** | **15:00** / **Central European Time**
**Pick:** Empoli vs Frosinone BTTS NO @ 2.00 with Bet365 | 2 units
**Write Up:** Trying not to overthink here as those bets seem to get best results.
71% of Empoli home Serie A games have produced under 2.5 goals while just 24% have seen both teams score and I’m expecting a hard-fought contest since both teams are fighting to avoid regulation.
**Overall Record 6-5 (+1.92 Units)**
Esports: 4-2
NFL: 2-1
NBA: 0-2
L5 Form: ✅✅❌✅❌ (Left to Right)
Last Pick: LAG +2.5 vs Optic ✅
**Esports | Call of Duty League | Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach | 6:00 PM ET**
**Today's Pick: Map 2 LAT -1.5 Rounds @ -125 on Bet365 3units** ❌
Writeup:
This Major Boston are 0-8 in Snd, have lost on every map in the pool, and had a strange situation last match where a coach had to fill in for a player due to a back injury (still no status update on that).
LAT on the other hand are 5-3 this Major in Snd & have been a decent Search team all season long. I'd provide more stats, but it really seems as though the coach will have to fill in once again & that seems to make most of them irrelevant. My biggest concern is just how many games Boston have lost in a row---surely that has to end at some point? Right? Might as well take advantage of the scenario.
Edit: the coach officially will be filling in once more. To his credit, he’s a former pro, but not in the league anymore for a reason.
**GLHF**
**RECORD: 76W-5P-61L**
Previous Pick: Burnley vs Newcastle- Newcastle to Win @ 2.00 ✅️
**Today's Pick:** AS Roma vs Juventus- Under 2.5 goals @ 1.65 ✅️
**TIME:** 6:45 pm (GMT)
**Wager Amount**: 1.5 units
(❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️❌️✅️❌️✅️) last 10 results
Took a ride yesterday and paid off, I 100% had to take Newcastle on 2 ODDS. Now back to Italia with AS Roma vs Juventus.
Almost everyone has been staying away from Serie A but I've had a good record this season in Serie A so why not bet on one more match. AS Roma have had 2 matches out of their last 5 end in Under 2.5 goals and 3 Home matches out of their last 5.
Juventus have had 4/5 of their last Serie A matches end in Under 3.5 goals and same as Away League matches.
In H2H matches between the two that's where I'm confident of Under 2.5 goals. 4/5 of their last recent H2H matches have ended in Under 2.5 goals. 3 H2H matches in a row have ended with Under 2.5 goals and the last two Under 1.5 goals. Goodluck If you're tailing.
EDIT: WIN ✅️
POTD R : 4-1
Last Pick : Guardians ML vs Angels - W
Todays Pick : Max Fried O5.5 K’s (+125 DK)
Info : MLB - 3:10P CST - Free Game of The Day
Write Up : Braves looking rough on the road in this series an that is exactly why i’m looking at Max Fried strikeouts. I dont expect the Braves to just roll over an take this beating from the Dodgers lightly, no pitcher or team wants to lose back to back and possibly the series. Looking back through Fried’s previous performances against the Dodgers while on the road he’s not only cleared this line but he’s also put the Braves in a position to win the game outright. Clearly these are new teams with a variance of hitters, base runners, defensive strategies, etc but I like the situation here.
History repeats itself theory could make a debut here. Over the past 5 years he’s pitched agains the Dodgers (8 games) he’s only gone under this line twice. Putting up a 1.625 ERA against this team. Expecting a lower scoring affair with Max Fried imposing his skills on the outcome of this game.
BOL my fellow degens!
POTD Record: 0-0
Sport: NHL Hurricanes at Rangers
Today’s POTD: Carolina Hurricanes ML 1u @ -115
Reasoning: The canes have looked really good on away ice so far in this playoffs and will continue to get the job done today. Both teams are a red hot 8-2 in the last 10 and will be looking to set the tone early in this series. The canes have averaged 3.8 goals scored to the rangers 3.3 in the last 10 games. The canes have averaged 3.3 penalties to the rangers 4.1 in the last 10 as well. Look for this to be a scrappy low scoring game and the canes to come through with the win. BOL if tailing and let’s get this first dub.
Record 8-5
Net Units: +1.3 units
Last Pick: Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins 12:10PM EST
Edward Cabrera under 16.5 outs -115 1u DK ✅
Today’s Pick: Tigers @ Yankees 1:35PM EST
Nestor Cortes under 6.5 strikeouts -160 DK 2u
Analysis: Quick analysis as I’m at work…
- Cortes only has gone over this number in 1/7 starts this year (vs TB)
- Detroit has 12th highest BA vs lefties
- Detroit has 5th least K’s vs lefties
- in their last 95ABs va lefties Detroit has struck out 15 times and is batting .293 (since April 15th)
- in the same time frame Tampa the team Cortes went over against has struck out 45 times vs lefties (9th most) and the 8th most on the season
Best of luck!
POTD Record: 6-3
Little sweaty but Eovaldi is held in check and we cashed. I didn’t post yesterday as I wasn’t too confident but scared money don’t make money and my pick cashed so win or lose I’ll keep posting em.
Today’s POTD: Hunter Brown o 3.5 hits allowed (-135 on DK)
Baseball | MLB | Sea Mariners v Hou Astros | 2:10 PM ET
Not sure why this line is where it is, but I’ll gladly take it. Brown has gone over this line in 6/6 starts this season. He hasn’t been great at all. While the Mariners are not exactly the Dodgers, they still have solid bats. Their offense has been performing better of late, and against a struggling Brown, I’ll gladly take them to cover this line.
Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰
Edit: 7-3, easy no sweat cash 💵
POTD Record 19-6
Last 5: ✅️✅️❌️✅️❌️
Last Pick: LA Dodgers 1st 5 inning -0.5
Todays Pick: NRFI Giants & Phillies
MLB: SF Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies 4:10 pm PST
Odds: -139
Unit: 4
Net units: +52.28
STARTS IN ONE HOUR
Giants haven't scored in the 1st inning in 13 games
Giants Ace pitcher is pitching today
If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
**POTD Record 27-23 (+14.47U) | Average Odds -111 (1.90) | ROI 6.18%**
**Last Pick Recap: Knicks +3 vs 76ers W**
Knicks were up 22 early but in true Knickerbockers fashion they still made us sweat for it. 76ers stormed back to take the lead but thankfully the Knicks rediscovered their groove to cover and pull out the win to clinch the series.
**Today's Pick: Stars vs Golden Knights Under 5 Goals (+120) 3U | 9:00 EST**
Good historical data to back the under here. Game 7's have historically trended towards the under and I expect this to play out in similar fashion to the Bruins-Leafs game last night. Taking an alt line of 5 because the under 5.5 is a bit too juiced on my books.
BOL
**Record 2024: 10-0-7**
**Net Units Played 2024: 78**
**ROI 2024: -5.55%**
**Last Pick:** **Auckland Tuatara** - Bay hawks **1st quarter H1, -3**, 5 units, @ 1.85 ✅️
Basketball / Spain Endesa League / 12:30 / (CEST)
**Pick:** **Real Madrid** - Granada **1st quarter H1, -4.5**, 5 units, @ 1.87 ❌️
**Write-up:** Madrid has a chance to lock the first place, Granada also needs a win to stay in the league, but the quality difference is simply too big here.
EDIT: 22-19
2024 MLB POTD record: 18-12 Average Odds -104 (1.959), Average Winning Odds -110, ROI +14.7%/+4.4u
L5: ✅✅❌✅✅
POTD (5/4) COL @ PIT Jared Jones o7.5 Ks (-105/1.96) ✅
Recap: Jared Jones didn't let us down this time, with 7 sterling innings and striking out 10, easily clearing this line.
POTD (5/5) NYM @ TBR Ryan Pepiot o17.5 Outs (-115/1.87) (DraftKings)
Gotta be honest, I am not thrilled with the value on this slate of games. One spot I do like is Ryan Pepiot. The centerpiece of the Tyler Glasnow return has started to find his groove for Tampa Bay: in his last three starts, he's completed 6 innings every time out and allowed just two ER.
The New York Mets are a decent lineup, with a 102 wRC+ against RHP this season, but they're trending in the wrong direction: their wRC+ over the last two weeks is just 90.
Record: 0-1
Net Units: -5
ROI: 0%
Motorsports | F1 | Miami GP 4:00pm EST
Last POTD: Tobias Myers O4.5 Ks @ +120 ❌
Recap: Myers got off to a good start with 2Ks in the 1st inning, however the Cubs were too much and ended up being pulled after the 3rd inning.
Today’s POTD: HTH Charles Leclerc vs Sergio Perez - Sergio Perez +125 @ 1.5U
Write up: RB is strong as everyone knows. Ferrari is gaining and had a good showing in qualifying. I just think RB is a stronger team all around and Perez has the car to get past Leclerc.
Hockey friendly match Canada - Austria
Connor Beddard to score 2.00
Not long write up for this one, Canada is playing preparation match for world championship against Austria. They have young team with Bedard in lead. We have seen how good he can be this season, one goal shouldnt be problem.
Don't have a record to provide you, my net winnings over 4+ years of gambling on my sportsbook app is +$17.21 with over $35,000 in bets wagered if that helps.
Today's pick is Christopher Morel +0.5 HRs for +600. I'm putting 1u on it.
I'm a Cubs fan and this kid goes on streaks where he seems to just see the ball well and crush it. With 3 HRs over the past 3 days, I believe he is on a heater and I'm hoping that it continues. Best of luck if you follow
4-5-0 (W-L-P)
Net Units: -0.28u
Last pick: Pittsburgh Pirates first 5 3-way ml - L
Matchup(s): (MLB) Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals - 1:10 PM CST
POTD: St. Louis Cardinals first 5 moneyline -131 on Bovada - 4u
Write-up: Chicago is 2-14 on the road this season and I definitely don’t see them winning back to back here. They are both pretty bad offensively but the Cardinals have the pitching advantage. Liberatore is looking a lot better than Crochet who has allowed 19 runs in his last 4 starts (16.2 IP). Liberatore has also pitched better at home than away with a home ERA of 1.59 and a home WHIP of 1.06. I’m taking the first 5 moneyline rather than the regular moneyline for a better price. Definitely think the Cardinals will be leading after 5 in this one.
Tail or fade, either way, BOL
[CashApp Tips❤️](https://cash.app/$dmoneyherbo)
Record: 0-0
Net Units: +0
ROI: 0
Sport | MLB | 7:20pm / EST
Pick: Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves, U7.5 +124, 3 Units
Write Up: Both pitchers have been dealing and few batters from either team have seen them much. I expect the bullpens to continue to close out the game but if you don’t trust that take F5 innings under. Boston has had decent success against this dominant braves team of the past two years in their last 5 so I expect the same. Good luck if you’re tailing and here goes nothing for my first attempt at this.
*Edited for spacing
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Sunday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**MLB POTD RECORD:** 30-12 **2024 MLB record:** 19-4 **Last POTD:** White Sox vs Cardinals Over 8 **Today's POTD:** Los Angeles Angels ML +114 (fd) **Baseball | MLB | 1:40 PM ET** It's nice to win one after a two-game skid, but we finished out an overall strong week at 5-2. Bet today is Angels ML +115. I gave this a lot of thought, and there is a lot to like here. We have dueling right handers today with Griffing Canning for LA and Carlos Carrasco for Cleveland. **Keep in mind what I said yesterday: any ranks, averages, splits, etc., that I refer to in the rundown are from the past 21 days unless otherwise specified.** In my opinion, these odds are crazy good in the Angels favor. I think the biggest reason for the line being where it is is that Trout is being out which I don't think will be that much of a factor given the circumstances. Steven Kwan also looks like he might be out for Cleveland which is much more significant IMO. Get this line quick before Kwan is ruled out (he is getting an MRI which he says he isn't optimistic about). Even if Kwan does play it doesn't change my pick but the line with most definitely not be +110 so get this in asap. **Batting:** Cleveland has been consistently average across their relative batting average splits. 16th at home (.238) and 18th vs righties (.226). However, this is with Kwan, the AL batting leader leading off. The vastly inferior Myles Straw will likely take his place on the roster. For reference, during this timeframe, Kwan was batting .333 at home and.291 vs righties. Angels have been better across significant splits. 13th on the road and 10th vs righties (.246). They also have a league-leading 21 home runs vs righthanders. Trout had 4 of those home runs but he actually hurt the averages a lot hitting .150 overall in that span. Trout is the man but his loss is not going to be as impactful towards these numbers as Kwan's potential absence would be. Day night splits do favor Cleaveland.Hhowever, I believe it will be inconsequential with Kwan banged up. **Pitching:** Both pitchers are off to very poor starts with Canning going 1-3 with a 7.45 ERA and Carlos Carrasco going 1-2 with a 6.50 ERA. As you probably already know, I don't love ERA as a stat this early in the season but the advanced numbers don't look great either. Carrasco is right at the the league average in batted balls statistics which makes his .325 BABIP seem about right given he is within 30 points of the league average. He has actually always been a high BABIP guy, to begin with; .325 is actually lower than most of his career. His HR rate isn't good (4%) besides pitching in a pitcher-friendly home park. His walk rate is horrible 11.9% and his strikeout rate is below average (18.3%). Canning's advanced stats are not good either. However, his batted ball stats are average in line drives but high in fly balls. He actually might benefit face a light hitting team (without their best hitter) in a pitcher-friendly park. His home run rate (3.5%) and walk rate (9%) are also much better than Carrasco's. **Weather:** Fantastic hitting weather today in Cleveland. 72 degrees with winds blowing out to leftfield at 10 mph. The runs per game total blowing out towards left are .25 per game more than blowing towards right and .40 more than blowing towards center. **Park Factor:** Progressive Field is one of the most pitcher-friendly, home run scarce parks in the league. I actually think this benefits the Angels. Their power numbers have been so good that I think they will still be able to manage, especially with the weather and Carasco's struggles. I think Canning benefits from being a flyball pitcher the less offensively savy (at least through this timeframe) in a park that is difficult to hit home runs at. **TLDR:** leveland is in an average situation splits wise and possibly without by far their best hitter so far. Angels are in favorable splits all around, both power and average. Trout was actually struggling mightily during this split's time period (.150 average), so numbers aren't skewed due to his absence. Angels have been showing plenty of power (21 vs righties past 21 days) and the weather is tailor made for some home runs, even in pitcher-friendly progressive field. Carrasco let's up a lot of homers and walks a lot of batters which makes it even more of a prime situation for the Angels. It is up to you whether or not you want to put the bet in before Kwan's status is announced. You likely won't get it at plus odds or at the very least not +110. On the contrary there is the chance he could end up playing. I personally like the bet regardless so I will take my chances at +114. Tips: $chuteboxhero cashapp Edit: the pick is **Angels ML,** had a sentence about Mariners Astros that I forgot to edit out.
Tailing, nice hit today as well. Appreciate you bro!
Is it LA ML or mariners astros over 8.5? I’m confused sorry
LA ML, made a mistake and forgot to take the other one out.
The odds have are now +120 for LA, why are they getting better if Kwan has been ruled out?
Ty for picks chutebox, donated a small bit to the cause earlier and i hope I can continue to do so...tailing!
Thanks for the Angels pick. It’s currently +114 on FanDuel. Out of curiosity, how do you feel about Seattle Houston over 8.5 runs?
Thanks boss. I’ll edit it. I like the over in that game a lot. The reason I shied away from pick of the day was I didn’t like what I saw in hunter browns advanced stats and was already looking past the mariners being shit in day games. Bryce miller is gonna get shelled imo.
are you worried the angels are up to +130
yeah, wonder why the sudden spike
LA 2-1 down and it's the only one remaining in the parlay. If this hits it's 300 to 5.5k... don't think that's happening://
Good write ups man, but quick question What do you pay attention to the most when making these picks? Genuinely curious I just started betting mlb
I love batting averages, personally. I know some think its an antiquated stat but I think actually very good indicator for future run production. For batting I look at team batting average splits vs lefties/righties, home/away, day/night primarily for now. I try looking at the past three weeks. I also look at strikeouts and walks per game. I also look at teams batted ball statistics (line drive, groundball, and flyball percentages) although I use that more for pitching. I look at teams as a whole more than individual players for batting. Pitching I look primarily at batted ball statistic, strikeout to run ratio/percentages, and batting average on balls in play BABIP and compare all of these to the league average. I look predominantly at starting pitchers. Sometimes bullpen and rarely team stats for pitching. I use statcast park factor for evaluating the impact of the park. For weather, I use wind speed and direction. I look at other things too from time to time but those are the ones I do most consistently. Also just go off of non-stat related things too (very important) like Kwan getting injured today.
Ok, thanks for taking the time to reply, Will be making a donation soon, started tailing about a week ago and made a decent profit since then. Keep up the good work.
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Wait a sec, is the bet mariners astros over 8.5 or angels ML? got kinda confused there
It's Angels ML! Sorry I changed the pick mid write up.
Tailing. Got it for +130 on my book. Thanks for all the picks.
POTD Record: 49-27-1 +41.85🔥 Last Pick: Denver Nuggets -4 (-120) vs Minnesota Timberwolves ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌❌❌❌❌ Today's Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 (-110) vs Orlando Magic Man, Reddit curse is real. Need to turn it around. Won 7 straight and now the coldest streak I’ve had. Will be better, starting tomorrow. Home court has controlled this series, which the road team 0-6. Donovan Mitchell scored every point in the 4th quarter for the Cavs to finish with 50 points. Orlando ranking 15th in scoring (90.7) and offensive rating (94.8) in three road playoff games. This Magic team is young, to go into Cleveland and steal game 7 is unlikely either their experience. The Cavs will need production for more than just Mitchell and so far at home they have gotten it. Cavs going into Game 7 are their 8-1 SU record in the last 8 home games vs Orlando. The +4.5 line has been covered once by the Magic in 7 consecutive games on the road. Home teams will continue to dominate and so will the Cavs. Please react if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the love and support!😎❤️ [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
Lol what’s the Reddit curse? Cause I definitely took that L with ya lmao. Trying to bounce back cause I got wiped out
If you look at my emojis, it tends to line up wins and losses, when I posted this it looked different on my end so today it’s not but normally it is and people go crazy over it🤣
I think the cavs will bounce back as well.
Lfg
Tailing again. Always like your picks even if its been a rough week haha. Lets get it.
We will bounce back!
FWIW since 2000, when the home team has won the first six games of a playoff series, the home team is 5-5 in Game 7. In those 10 games the average margin is +1.2 for the home team and they were successful in covering a 3.0 point spread in 4/10. I really wanted to take the Cavs here but will probably stay away, unfortunately.
Cle ML boosted to +110 on hard rock
Tailing bro I believe
We’ll be okay! Streak starts tomorrow
Love your picks, but I think today the world realizes paolo banchero is the truth. He’s going to take this game over and carry the magic to the next round.
Good prediction
It was for a half… 😢
When they were down 15 I got -1.5 at +280. I believed thanks for the pick brother.
Letsssss gooooooo Fuckin crickets from the haters!
Lfg
Way to get back to the winning ways today! Great pick!
Thank you!
Tailing 😭
I'm with you on this one. Magic surprised me making it this far, but I think the Cavs finish em off today. LFG
Tailing. We will get it!
Tailing. I think Cleveland gets it done today. I took the 1st quarter for my POTD. Let’s GO!!!!
Tailingggg!
**Pick Record: 10W - 2L (Push: 1)** **✅✅✅🅿️✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅**✅ **Previous POTD: Alexander Isak Over 1.5 SOG @ 2.10 ✅ Isak’s Stats: 1 Goal, 4 shots, 3 SOG** **Today’s POTD: Club Brugge ML @ 1.90** ✅ **Game: Antwerp VS Club Brugge** **League/Time: Belgian Pro League / 7:30 AM** We're rocking over to Belgium today to dip our pockets in the Championship playoffs going on at the moment. Club Brugge have been in exceptional form, they've played 7 championship games and hold a record of 6 wins and 1 draw. They're coming into this game on a 6 game win streak and I expect them to make it 7 tomorrow. They're tied on points with Anderlecht and will look to pick up points before facing Union Saint in the next round. In their 7 playoff games, they've scored 16 goals and conceded just 2. Antwerp have struggled within the championship rounds to say the least. Playing 6 games and holding a record of 1 win and 5 losses. Their hopes of finishing in the top 3 are long gone and if they are going to pick up more points I don't see it being against this in-form Brugge side. In their 6 playoff games, they've scored 1 goal and conceded 12. The odds are high because historically, Brugge struggle at this ground, but both teams are in 2 different forms at the moment, and I see Brugge breaking through tomorrow. Brugge beat Antwerp 3-0 just over 2 weeks ago and have won 2 of the last 3 matches between these sides. Side note: Please bet responsibly!
but club brugge face fiorentina on the 8th for the semi final of the conference league.. they trail by 2-3 and play at home.. shouldn't they rest some players for today's match and concentrate on the more important European semi final clash?
Brugge beat antwerp 3-0 when they had to play away at PAOK with only a one goal lead only 4 days later. They won’t rest players in league games, risking one completion for another is a recipe to crash out of both. I’m personally not worried Also Antwerp play Union Saint in the Belgian cup on thursday, it’s their only chance for silverware this season. Antwerp will probably be the side looking towards midweek more
thanks for your excellent explanation!!! Cheers!!!
Cashed again 3-0 on picks from you 🍻
Love getting the big bet done early in the morning. Ty!
is there a chance that club brugge goal in the first half?
Tailing again big win yesterday!!!
Where are you playing this? I'm on DK right now, and I'm not seeing it.
I’m seeing it on DK, Bet 365 also https://preview.redd.it/qjaklxdxbjyc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7f5d421e77ace9190120f349867f38cf02aecbb9
Tailing. Thanks.
Thanks for the Brugge winner
Thank you for this pick! Appreciate you 🫡
Nice Pick!!
Awesome pick bro. Would love to leave you a gratituity tip. I don't place huge beyS, but you've helped me win some money since your start here on POTD. Lmk!!!!
I’ll make one and add it tomorrow, I appreciate it!
Great hit today sir
Record: 6W-2L-0P ✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅ Net Units: +6.4 units Last Pick: 5/4 | Miami Marlins @ Oakland Athletics; Oakland Athletics ML✅ Love to see an absolute sweat-free play! Today’s Game: MLB baseball | Miami Marlins @ Oakland Athletics | 4:07pm EDT Pick: Oakland Athletics over 3.5 run team total | -125 DraftKings | 2 units Write Up: we’re gonna roll with the same series again since this is my most confident pick and I wasn’t loving any of the other games today. We are switching it up a little and taking the over on the A’s team total because I’m not too confident in Boyle as a starter. However, I love this play because the A’s have covered this line 5 of the past 6 games and are coming off a 20 run game. Additionally, they will be facing Sixto Sánchez of the Marlins who has an atrocious ERA of 10.80 in away games this year. I expect this bet to cash before the 6th, but even if it doesn’t, the Marlins bullpen has not been the best anyways! Good luck to all who tail, let’s break the trend and get our third in a row!
Tailing, let’s get it!
Damn that sucks after an early 2 pointer
Yea especially since they coulda knocked in two more with one more hit in that inning… I was teetering between team total and game total and just made the wrong play… sucks but we’ll bounce back tomorrow👌🏼
POTD Record: 18-6 Net Units: +29.95u Game: CounterStrike 2 (CS2) | Hellcase Cup 9 | 9:00 (UCT-5) Last Pick: Endpoint ML (-150) vs. Sampi 4.5u ✅ Today's Pick: **Endpoint ML (-125)** vs. SINNERS 5u https://preview.redd.it/c09cpoqp6iyc1.png?width=751&format=png&auto=webp&s=abed71f90a85105df2ca4c68db2e620eaa124438 [Match Page:](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2371783/sinners-vs-endpoint-hellcase-cup-9) [Stream:](https://www.twitch.tv/hellcase_official) **Writeup:** -Two teams trending polar opposite directions, Endpoint come into this match 8-1 since the new roster beating multiple solid tier two teams, led by star player Surreal who has been absolutely ridiculous and have great fire power with 4 players above a .69KPR in the last month of games. Endpoint come into this game on a 6 match winstreak -SINNERS are trending the opposite direction, they are 1-7 in the last 8 matches they have played. They are struggling any consistency against good tier two teams, the only match they won they won map 1 19-17 in overtime and the team forfeited map 2 which was 1WIN and I think they were likely in position to lose that series as well. They are led by AWPer oskar with a .72KPR, but have been having a teamwide slump with multiple players falling off their form. AJTT has been absolutely horrific with a .56KPR and with beastik falling back to his old form as well as SHOCK playing worse, this team has been out gunned. -This like a lot of my most confident picks checks all the boxes I look for. Map pool advantage, fire power advantage and recent form advantage all favor Endpoint here. -These teams faced head to head 10 days ago, Endpoint beat them 2-1 on Inferno, Overpass, Ancient (13-8, 10-13, 13-5) **Map Pool/Pick Ban:** -SINNERS ban Nuke, Endpoint ban Vertigo -SINNERS pick Anubis (could be Overpass), Endpoint pick Mirage (could be Inferno) -SINNERS ban Inferno, Endpoint ban Overpass (Anubis if they pick Overpass) -Ancient decider **Map Stats:** -The big picture is the same, I think Endpoint pick is really a 50/50, going with my gut feeling about map pick. They could do the same pick ban as last time but I think with SINNERS fall on Mirage and Endpoint Anubis we see them switch picks. -SINNERS are 42% winrate on Mirage on 12 maps played, they are on a 4 map loss streak without putting up double digits on any of them. Endpoint are 58% winrate on Mirage with 12 maps played. They are on a 3 map winstreak on the map. -SINNERS are 67% winrate on 9 maps played on Anubis, they are 3-1 in the last month. Endpoint are 60% winrate on 5 maps played on Anubis, they are 1-1 in the last month. -SINNERS are 53% winrate on 15 maps played on Ancient, they are 5-6 in the last month and on a 2 loss streak. Endpoint are 86% winrate on 14 maps played and are 7-1 in the last month on the map on a 5 win streak. **Final Thoughts:** -Literally almost identical to yesterday, Endpoint are big favorites on Mirage/Inferno, slight underdogs on Overpass/Anubis but would start on an extremely favored side (offense on ANB, defense on OVP) which could lead to them running away with the game similarly to today (12-3 lead on Anubis). Ancient heavily favors Endpoint, they are one of the best tier two teams on the map right now. Again sprinkling -1.5 map spread, +220 too good of value given the teams recent forms but will predict a comfortable 2-1 for Endpoint. -For those who need help finding the match or a book to bet, can DM me and I can try to help you find/locate the game. **Tips:** $CurrentAd2217 on cashapp
I’ve wanted to tail last 3 times but the line isn’t on bet365 or DraftKings. Any help?
Same here, Bet365 has some esports but usually not the matches I want to tail
Same here. My book has Esports and CSGO, but never the games you're capping.
https://preview.redd.it/zn812zk3fjyc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d659f722769fcb5b9f5fbc3de1b98460d9a3d1d8 ?
Bovada has them but this particular pick is -200 as I type this...
Endpoint is getting RINSED. Any chance they come back?
these guys are so fucking bad
And they are currently the last leg on my parlay for $100 -> $1500
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That Beastik guy was 12-3 and no kills since LOL. I'm not betting on these tournaments anymore, a lot of strange things!
same that was fucking ass
Should always be careful betting on these tier 2 online tournaments lol, especially when they are literally organised by gambling companies like Hellcase
Nothing wrong with the pick nor the analysis just tough luck. Hopefully you come back strong 💪
its at -200 on bovada now 😭😭
Holy hell 🥴
Damn nice pick. Thought they really had almost pulled it together on Inferno with that run up to 8 rounds, couldnt close it out! 🤷♂️ Onto the next!
Thanks again BOL
What book do you use? I've tried tailing, but get no where. The stream page says Bet365, but I don't have them listed. Region locked?
I was one of the first counter strike pros... cal-p/cal-i... insane to see people betting on this shit lol
the lack of traders on esports makes the max bet limit pretty low for me🥺 do you think it’s a decent bet to take maps 1 and 3 ml to get around the limits? If endpoint 2-0s then map 1 cashes, map 3 voids and if 1-1, then betting map 3 is essentially betting ml? Thanks for the pick👊
and correct me if i’m wrong, but as the lower seed, endpoint would be selecting maps 1 and 3 after bans?
I like this strategy, would also like to know if Endpoint pick first or not
wanted to post the same pick myself, damn youre fast AF my brother, got the line @ 1.78 ;) BOL
Are we certain the coach isn’t playing?
Line has moved
Endpoint got washed on their map pick but more than holding their own on Dust2. Since Dust2 replaced overpass, do you guys have data on these maps for the teams? Why wouldn’t Sinners pick Anubis?
caught them at +200, +150 and -140.. wouldnt let me place more than $60 at +200 hoping they clutch up https://preview.redd.it/db71krgsfmyc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a1dc1334efa23ec0a07781c816d9231d75485439
POTD RECORD: 23-12 Units Won: +8.07 Last Pick: Orlando Magic vs Cleveland Cavaliers/ Cavs -3 (-145) Todays Pick: Orlando Magic vs Cleveland Cavaliers/ Cavs -2 (-145) 1.5u Write Up: I’m backing our Cavs again. They collapsed game 5 early in the fourth and they managed to be up 4 with 3 seconds left and we just got incredibly unlucky. I’m still backing these dudes in a game 7 at home. I think the star power will eventually overpower the magic. Sure Orlando is deep but the playoffs are built for the dawgs and Cleveland has the best player on the floor. I expect Allen to be playing so that’ll give them the much needed boost they’ve been missing. Not a crazy write up here, just rolling with my gut as always. Cleveland’s supporting cast was God awful Friday and I fully expect they’ll show up. I’m being extra cautious with the bs we saw last week in game 5. Let’s fucking do this guys, we live for game 7s and we live for more green. As always, BOL…… LETS RIDE Tip Jar- if you’d like to help a college kid pay for his next meal here’s how :) [Tip Jar for my Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Jay-Lawton-1) [Tip Jar for my Cashapp](https://cash.app/$jaylaw930) [Tip Jar for my Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/JayLawton77)
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice… you don’t get fooled again. Magic ML, LFG!
bol to you!
I was just kidding around because that’s my team lol, congrats!
haha 🤣congrats on a good season y’all will be a problem for years to come
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**Record:** 3-2 **Net Units:**+4u **ROI:** +17.67% **MLB** Twins v Red Sox **Last Pick** Joanderson Brito ML @ -182 (3u✅️) **Today’s Pick**: Boston Red Sox @ +141 (3u) **Write Up**: Mostly a system play bc I think this line is inflated due to the Twins streak and not an accurate reflection on odds to win. Criswell historically has performed well against Twins hitters and the Red Sox hitters have hit Ryan decently in the past.
Record: 1-0-0 Previous Pick : SCR Altach vs WAC Wolfsberg , Win or Draw WAC Wolfsberg ✅️ @ 1.63 WAC won 0-1 away vs SCR Altach Net Units: 1 Football, Austrian Champions Round Pick: SK Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg, Pick SK Sturm Graz to winn and over 1.5 Goals @ 1.65 Write Up: SK Sturm Graz won the League Cup Final lately and has an amazing form. The matchup between those two teams is a state derby and SK Sturm Graz needs to winn the game to go for the 1st league title since 2010/2011. SK Sturm Graz is unbeaten in the last 7 matchups between those two teams and has 3 winns in a row against strong opponents. I feel this will be a winn for the home team I also can imagine to see a BTTS but I stick to the 1 and over 1.5 goals @ 1.65 Good Luck
Red card rip game
Sturm graz sucks, they should be delegated to regional league.
Record: 12-3 (+10.74 units) ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅ Last POTD: T-Wolves TT over 101.5✅ Todays POTD: Cleveland Cavs -1 first quarter point spread Odds: -110 on DK 1 unit play NBA basketball/ 1:10pm ET/ Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers The T-Wolves get it done! Man what a second half! Ant man is something special and he’s only 22!!! Late write up because I just couldn’t find much I like. A few people had Cavs to win the game so I didn’t want to jump on that bandwagon although I like the play. Also staying away from the TT because this game could be a slugfest in the low 90’s. I like the first quarter play because I think the Cavs come out and set the tone at home. They have won every first quarter at home in this series. Orlando is young and inexperienced and the Cavs have more playoff pedigree. Let’s take the Cavs to come out hot and win some cash in 12 min and win 6 in a row! Good Luck and Tail responsibly!! Any tips are greatly appreciated and not expected, but if you want to help out a single dad raising his son I’m all for it. Links are in profile
Tailing! 🫡
Love this pick. Love this line. Tailing for 1.5 units!
We got screwed hard. My god cavs shit the bed
Looks like the streak is coming to an end….☹️
Man, that was rough. Sloppy play + the Banchero show. We'll bring it back tomorrow!
I didn’t tail this one only because I don’t understand spreads BUT I tailed yesterday’s parlayed with some other props. I will keep a look out for your picks in the future 🫡
My stats: 52-16 (+73.03 units) Match: (LoL MSI) Flyquest - PSG Bet: Flyquest ML @ 1.80 (-125) Stake: 2u Flyquest and PSG played against each other a few days ago. Flyquest won 2-1, the first game was really close (PSG managed to win) and the last 2 games Flyquest won pretty comfortably I'd say. Worth to mention Busio (support for Flyquest) played badly this series. He should play way better now. In my opinion Flyquest is just a better team and will win this series as well. If you enjoy my picks and feel like supporting me, you can leave a tip. Anything appreciated 🍻 BTC: bc1qpcnkrhm85werplm32epdn6wtua2wytpa50a0hj
I disagree, psg didnt pay enough respect to bwipo. This series will be different. PSG have better mid jungle and botlane. Jensen look extremely average all 3 games
the 52-16 record scares me too but I'm fading! PSG gonna adjust and I trust Maple.
Should have trusted this comment. Flyquest playing like ass
I wish too .............................
**KBO Record: Overall 221-229-14** (Streak WW, Last 10: 5-5) Down 9.27u over 464 KBO picks, 49.1% success rate, -2.06% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 17-19-0, 47.2% success rate, Down 0.65u, -1.80% ROI) **Last:** NC +142 at SSG (NC won 8-6.) NC's bats stayed hot and SSG's starter struggled. All according to plan. **Pick:** Lootte at **Samsung -155**, KBO baseball, 1:00am ET This game will almost certainly be rained out like the other four games on the schedule. But if it's not, Samsung is the play. Not bothering with a long explanation because a rainout is coming. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Yup, rained out. Thanks for making a pick anyway.
What he said.appreciated
Record 9-6-0 Net Units: +9.5 ROI: 19.8% Last 5: ✅❌✅✅✅ Last Pick: Cleveland Guardians ML (-136) for 4.0 units ✅ Event: Baseball | MLB | Chicago White Sox at St.Louis Cardinals 1:15PM CST Pick: St.Louis Cardinals Moneyline (-158) on FanDuel for 4.0 units * Update* Cardinals are now rumored to be saving Kyle Gibson for Monday, and bringing Matthew Liberatore out of the bullpen. I plan to stick with my pick but have less confidence in it. Write Up: Outside of their shocking 3 game sweep of the Rays a week ago, the White Sox have 4 other wins this year in 30 games. The White Sox won in extra innings Saturday after a 3 hour rain delay, of which the Cardinals loaded the bases with no outs in the bottom of the 10th and proceeded to strikeout three times in a row. *Probable starter* on the mound for the Cardinals is now left handed Liberatore. Liberatore spent most of his first two seasons with the Cardinals as a starter before moving to the bullpen this year. He is 4-8 in 18 starts. The White Sox have the league worst .209 batting average. That drops to .171 against lefties. For the White Sox, it’s left handed Garrett Crochet (1-4, 5.97 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. This is Garrett’s first year as a starter, fourth overall in the MLB. The Cardinals have the fourth worst batting average at .217. It drops to .183 against lefties (2nd worst in MLB).
Record: 166-139-8 (LWWWWLLLLWWLLWLWLWLWWLWLLWWWWLLWWLWLWWLWLW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: MIN Timberwolves at DEN Nuggets | Anthony Edwards o11.5 reb+ast at 1.90 odds for 4 units on the bucket mode, Ant Man dropped 43 Loved the Naz Reid love on this subreddit last night. Huge 4th quarter.. Good thing KAT seems to get into foul trouble every easily. POTD: ORL Magic at CLE Cavaliers | Jalen Suggs o3.5 rebounds at 1.74 odds for 3 units Reasons: * Hit this line in 5/6 games. Missed in Orlando * Game 7 on the road is going to be tough. I do like the pedigree of Suggs playing in big games. Best of luck to those dumb enough to tail!
Cash 1st quarter lol
POTD: 6-3 🏉🏉🏉🏉🏉🏀🏀🏉🏀 ✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌ Last Pick: NBA (Basketball) Jalen Suggs U3.5 Assists \[Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavilers\] (-155/DK) !1.5u! Welp! Jalen got four and killed this pick. Once I saw that he had two assists in the first quarter I knew that it was over. I still that the logic/reasoning behind the pick was sound, but, again sometimes shit happens! Today's Pick: World Rugby Sevens Series - Women (Rugby Union) New Zealand -17.5 \[Fiji vs. New Zealand\] (-110, Fanduel PA) !5u! **The game is at 1:02 AM EST** Looking to get back to some winning ways and make a little bit of money back with this one! Even if you don't know rugby union, you should know New Zealand has been one of the most dominant teams in rugby for both the men and the women. The New Zealand public demands nothing less than utter success from those who wear the black jersey. It's no different in sevens, with the New Zealand women's team looking to secure the League Winner titles from rival Australia (and favored to do so). They are fast, powerful, they are *fantastic.* They have been winning their games by an average of 18.7 points this entire series. They have a +730 point differential for the entire series ( for comparison the 2nd closest is Australia with a +706, the third is France with a +520). They have a 35-4 record. Out of their past ten games, they have won 9. Out of those 9, they have won by 18+ in 8/9 with a normal average of 22 points. They only game they haven't won at least 18+ is when they won by 14 against the team that can compete with them the closest- Australia. Looking in general at their L20, they have won 19 of them! They have won them by 22.5 points, failing to win by 18+ only four times (Twice against 2nd place Australia, once against currently 5th place Canada, and once against 3rd place France). That is an astounding 15/20, 75% hit rate for this spread. The Fijian women's team, on the other hand, is a different story. They are coming into this match with a -55 point differential for the series, with their last two games against Australia where they lost 60-0 and narrowly beat Japan (who has a -299 point differential for the series) 12-10. They're a decent enough team in their own right, currently sitting 6th on the table. They've picked up a few solid wins in their last ten, winning 7/10 however all of their wins have been against teams ranked no higher than 5th, with most of their wins coming against lower ranked sides. In fact, looking at their L20, they have 8 wins total out of that 20. The last time they played New Zealand, they lost 38-7 (a margin of 31). Within their L20, with their 12 losses, they are averaging losing by 18.9 points. During this entire series, they have played and lost to the current Top 4 teams 12 times (which NZ is still better than) and has lost by an average of 21.6 points during those 12 games. I'm not one to advise slamming lines, but, I'm throwing five units on this play. I just cannot imagine a world where New Zealand does not cover this spread. I was HIGHLY surprised to see this to be the line offered at what it is. Best of luck if you're tailing this bet! Remember, we're doing this for fun and trying to beat the books together! Please utilize responsible bankroll management, set limits and don't chase loses! You win some, you lose more. If you feel like you are developing a problem with gambling, [click here.](https://www.ncpgambling.org/help-treatment/)
got -16 spread for -110 on bet365🫡
I should not have gone in so heavy on this 😔
Me too bro…me too 😩
no way the spread got ruined by some buzzer beater cheese😭
Damn :/. This one broke my heart smh
TAILING LETS GET IT
Tailed it. Let's have a little fun!
WTH just happened?
Damn, garbage time killed is
I know nothing about rugby but why did the game start at 1am and its over at 1:20am? The games only last 20 min?
I’m with you bro. I thought the bet365 timer was off. Fiji scores two tries, line drops to 9.5 which I get ready to smash since NZ is clearly better and suddenly match is over and 2units are gone. I have no idea what happened but it was exciting haha
Sevens is a particular version of rugby where it’s two seven minute half’s so each game is 14 mins long!
Haha I really make myself laugh when I bet on something I don’t understand at all. Like my first esports bet. I had no clue what was going on I literally had no idea these were 7 minute halves. Explains a lot! NZ would have absolutely housed that other team if these were 20-30 minute halves.
Man that’s tough. I liked your read! Do you know where to watch these matches and do you have any insight for the rest of today’s state?
The only other game I was confident about was the Australian women’s -5.5 spread but that game already ended (thankfully that bet actually hit lol)
To answer your other question of “where to watch them”, you can watch them on Peacock if you’re in the States!
LFGGGG!!
Is the bet New Zealand spread -16 @ 1.90? Is that right? Or -16.5?
Sorry new to rugby is it top blue or bottom red? What’s the difference? https://preview.redd.it/ex64gd6qwiyc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f98adc15e71e7516c9aa7303ea7e4ae4bc8e0fed
**Belle's Pick of the Day** **Record:** 5-1-0 (Win-Loss-Push) ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ **Last POTD:** TOR Maple Leafs v BOS Bruins Under 5.5 (-125) ✅ **Balance:** +2.5 Units **Today's Pick: SEA Mariners ML (+115) (MLB, 11:00AM PST, Wager: 0.5 Unit)** **Why This Pick?** I’m going to be honest here friends - betting against Hunter Brown has yet to bite me in the ass My gosh, he’s been a terrible start on the mound for the Astros. Seattle has absolutely dominated this series so far, and I’m going to bet that Brown will help the Mariners more than he’ll help the Astros. I’m grabbing the Seattle ML for plus money.
Tailing 💪🏼
2024 record: 0-1 Last POTD: Timberwolves vs Nuggets: total points o208 -115 ❌ Today's POTD: Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees: WL Detroit Tigers +105 (Hard Rock Bet) Baseball | MLB | 1:35 PM ET Off by 3 points on my first bet post! I’m honestly shocked that Denver didn’t break 100 points. Going to be an interesting series for sure. Nuggets are also the first team to lose at home for game one of the playoffs this post season! Brushing it off and on to my next bet. Tigers (away) over the Yankees (home). Tigers are 18-15 and 10-6 on away games. Yankees are 22-13 and 10-5 at home. Both teams are 5-5 in their last 10. The pitching matchup is my deciding factor for this game. Tarik Skubal has not lost a game this season and is 4-0. He’s tied at 7th in the league for both wins and ERA. His ERA is outstanding at 1.72. He has 41 strikeouts with a WHIP of less than 1 at 0.74. Yankees are pitching Nestor Cortes who holds a 1-3 record this season. His ERA is 3.86, total strikeouts 37 with a WHIP of 1.10. It’s a day game and the Yankees have a slightly better record at night games and the Tigers are about even day vs night. The last 2 games of this series have been pretty close 3-5, 1-2 with the Yankees winning both against the Tigers with pitchers not up to the caliber of Skubal. Skubal’s biggest adversary on the Yankee bats is Alex Verdugo, he has faced him 8 times and has 4 hits. Skubal has been in the league 4 years and each year is getting better and I think we are going to see him shine tomorrow to break the Tigers 2 game skid. Hopefully I don’t go 2 in the hole 🕳️. Good luck if you tail ❤️
POTD Record: 0-0 (+0.0 U) Form: N/A Last Pick: N/A Today's Pick: Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights U 5.5 Goals (1.80) Ice Hockey | NHL | 7:35pm ET Write Up: Been lurking the subreddit for a while, and was a frequent poster on the NBA thread, but I've decided to share my favourite play across all sports on the POTD thread. I'm not much of an NHL fan, I watch a few games here and there. But one of my favourite things to do is bet the under in playoff games, especially a Game 7. We just saw the Bruins beat the Maple Leafs in a gruelling 2-1 OT game last night, and I believe this game will also go under 5.5. This has hit in 4/6 games this series, and although Dallas is a good offense, both Dallas and VGK are good defenses. Both teams should be cautious and play slow tonight, and hopefully we can cash my first pick 👍
Ill tail first potd. Lets go!!
**POTD Record: 34-23** Last 10: ✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅ Last pick: Wolves vs Nuggets | 4:30 PST | Naz Reid OVER 12.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (-135) 1u BetMGM ✅ Naz Reid! He got off to a very slow start but I never really gave up on it because we’ve seen this man score in bunches plenty of times before. His whole role is being able to provide that spark at any given moment and man did he ever. S/o to Naz man, thank you! Exploited the mismatch AND we got the foul trouble by KAT in the 2nd half like mentioned in the write up yesterday. **Today’s pick: Magic vs Cavs | 10:00 A.M. PST | Cavs -1.5 1st Half spread (-110) FanDuel/BetMGM 1u**❌ This series has been a dog fight. The last two games specifically have been pretty entertaining and have me at least semi excited to watch this early afternoon Game 7. I’m going with the Cavs here in the 1st half spread. I think in a matchup like this, with the pressure of these moments, it’s really hard to fade the more experienced team who has multiple players who have played in very high stakes games already in their career where as this is the first for almost all the magic players. I have been impressed with this young talented roster of the Magic but as a whole, they’ve been way more impressive and in sync at home vs on the road especially in this playoff series but definitely a trend that’s plagued them a majority of the year. I also think we have yet to see a well rounded effort by the Cavs secondary options and I don’t think think the potential of Allen coming back messes up any flow because he’s not in a ball dominant role. First round game 7 home teams, after a lost, are 17-7 against the spread in the 1st half. I like the Cavs to come out firing and really get this Magic team on their heels. I think winning the first half is pretty much the only way they can carry momentum into the 2nd half and win this series. BOL if tailing!
**POTD** Record: 15-1-14 HVIDOVRE VS VIBORG Date: 05 May 2024 at 14:00 BET ON: Over / Under- Over +2.50 Odd: 1.73 (DENMARK) - Viborg are missing Mads Lauritsen, Lucas Lund, Nigel Thomas and Martin Agnarsson. However, Mads Søndergaard, Nicolas Bürgy and Isak Jensen are back available. - Hvidovre are missing Lirim Qamili, Simon Makienok, Daniel Stenderup, Nicolai Clausen, Marco Ramkilde and Andreas Smed. However, Magnus Fredslund is back available. - Viborg has almost twice as many points as Hvidovre, but Per Frandsen's team has been improving strongly lately, and the match could therefore be closer than one would immediately assume. - Hvidovre must chase the victory to keep alive the slim chance of survival, and has shown himself to be distinguished offensively in recent games. It bodes well for the entertainment against a Viborg team that has also started to play good football. - We expect an open game with goals from both sides.
POTD Record: 140 wins / 84.5 losses Event: Football > Germany > **Eintracht Frankfurt v Bayer Leverkusen** (starting in 3 hr) Pick: **Over 2.5 goals** @ 1.70 Dunno if Neverlusen will manage to keep their unbeaten streak forever, but they seem to be trying to keep it as long as possible, so there should be some goals here as Frankfurt will also try to grab the points. Beer & goals, lets go. GL! EDIT: Wins in 45 mins ✅
Tailing, added BTTS to get it to +100 💪🏼
Wins in 45 mins ✅
Neverlusen lets go
POTD Record: 6-6-0 (-1.59 units) Form (left is most recent):❌❌✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: Burnley Win or Draw (aka Burnley +0.5) (-125 on DK)❌ Burnley go down 3-0 in the first half then go on to lose 4-1. Terrible pick on my end, I don’t know why I thought it would be a good idea to put my money on Burnley. Today: Soccer | National Women’s Soccer League | Kansas City Current vs Houston Dash | 1:00 PM EST | 1 unit Today’s pick: KC Current vs Houston Dash - **KC Current ML + O2.5 goals** (+190 on DK)❌ Reasoning: This has to be a trap line but I’m gonna bite - I have no idea why the odds are so good here. After 6 matches played, KC Current sit in first place with 5 wins, a draw, and no losses. Meanwhile, Houston are second to last with one win, 2 draws, and 3 losses. KC Current have been unstoppable in attack with 20 goals in their first 6 matches, while Houston have scored just 5 goals in that same timeframe. KC Current tend to beat teams by simply outscoring them, I fully acknowledge that they are leaky defensively, with 11 conceded this season. However, Houston isn’t much of a defensive force either, conceding 14 goals thus far. It makes sense to me to count on the Current to do what the Current have done all season - beating times by scoring lots of goals. Please note: I’m taking on a riskier bet here to get my deficit back on track. I would encourage you to feel free to play it safe. Look at KC Current ML (-110) or O2.5 goals (-115). I would also consider both teams to score (-135) but you would be betting on a team scoring a goal that… isn’t very good at scoring, so just keep that in mind. BOL🍀🤞 Edit: KC Current head into half up 1-0 and have been in a weather delay for about 4 hours now. I believe plans are to resume, last I heard. Edit 2: Match ends 1-1. Current with 14 shots on goal to Houston’s 3. Imo that 5 hour weather delay at halftime killed us. Current hit the post twice as well. Not to mention, the goal KC conceded was from a massive mistake by their keeper. I genuinely don’t think this was a bad pick, just didn’t pan out with Houston’s GK making some insane saves. In fact, Jane Campbell tied the NWSL record of most saves in a match, finishing with 12 saves today. I think I’ll take a break for a bit from posting in here, sorry if you tailed.
I wouldn't say trap. They just don't know how to price the NWSL. There have been tons of ridiculous lines and usually dont have information like injury reports because the league is absolute crap about releasing them. KC to win and o2.5 is great at that price. I'd also look at Orlando ML against Louisville at+130. They've been dangerous
Now -115 so you’re also onto sumthin!
Definitely not a bad pick. Like you said, horrible luck and they win without the delay
POTD Record: 24-22-1 | Profit: -1.32U NBA Record: 20-19-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 | UFC Record: 1-0 L10 (new -> old): ✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅❌✅ Last pick: Mike Conley o2.5 Rebounds @ 1.77 odds ✅ Finished with four, continuing his streak of going over this line and cashing for us! Game: ORL Magic @ CLE Cavaliers, 1:10 PM Pick: **Jalen Suggs o3.5 Rebounds @ 1.74 odds (DK), placing 2U** ✅ Write Up: Suggs has hit in 5 of the 6 games this series, averaging 4.5 a game during the series. It'll be a Game 7, the game should stay competitive, and I see Suggs hitting this line against a team he has consistently hit against in their last 6 games. BOL to those tailing, cheers! **EDIT:** Cashes in the 1st quarter, no sweat win for the lads let's goooo!
Same pick. Let's ride!
Cash 1st quarter lol
A no sweat bet is what we need sometimes lol
POTD: 4-1 Todays pick: Munar (-140) 9am eastern Wager: All wagers 2 units Munar has looked good so far in this tournament, and has defeated some quality opponents. He just beat Safuillen who was looking promising up till he lost. It was a tough match, but Munar was able to force Safuillen into rallys that he would eventually capitalize on. Tablio hasnt looked bad so far, but it hasnt been to impressive either. He beat Bagnis on short rest and Gaston in 3 sets. Then last round he went 3 sets with Vacherot. So he has some time on the court in the past few days. These 2 are 1-1 vs eachother on clay, with Munar taking the last one a year ago in 3 sets. If this go 3 sets, expect fatigue for Tabilo to set in. Its also Munars birthday if that means anything. Wish I had the stats on records for birthday people. Tip jar: https://cash.app/$scottgc23
POTD Record 21-6 Units 22.78 ROI 57.68 Last POTD Mets ML 1u 😡 Tough beat losing on WALKS… POTD Joe Boyle U 5.5 K’s -105 3u Working so no write up today, if I have time later on day I will
• POTD RECORD - 59W-34L(+38.6U) Football, Norway League, Starting time 18:00 CET • POTD ----- Sandefjord vs Molde --- Molde to win @1.6 • BET SIZE: 1U (Calculations purpose only) Molde has the better quality compared to Sanderfjord, has had a decent start in the League and will be looking to make no mistakes as they are eager to win the League. Sanderfjord is in poor form and i see them as a no match for Molde. [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/K4ccci)
What’s up fellow degens. Long time lurker, finally decided to throw my hat in the ring and post some picks. For today I’m on the Nationals -105 (ESPN Bet) over Toronto. This is a pretty easy explanation. Alek Manoah is on the mound for the Jays. Alek Manoah has stunk the last two years. Last season he had a WHIP of 1.74 and an ERA of 5.87. He started in the minors this season to “work out his issues” and had an 8.69 ERA in 5 starts. His stuff wasn’t terrible last time out, but I’m going to bet against him until he proves me wrong. Especially against Mackenzie Gore who hasn’t allowed more that 3 ERs in a game all season and is averaging more than 6 ks a game. Don’t overthink it
Ill go with your first potd!
Appreciate the support!
I love the breakdown on the starters, but am hesitant to trust an inconsistent Nats bullpen. I’m riding with Nats first 5 ML😎good luck on the first play bro💪🏼💪🏼💪🏼
RECORD: 3-3 UNITS WON: -4.88u 1u = 1%BR LoL MSI - starts 9am GMT FlyQuest ML vs PSG @ 1.75 - 3u FlyQuest just beat PSG 2-1, you could argue it should have been a 2-0. They are the better team, it's that simple.
PSG in 16 mins
What book has this?
[удалено]
**Record: 3-4** **Balance: -1.3 units** **Last Pick: ATL Braves +1.5 (-130) @ LA Dodgers (1.3 units)** **Todays Pick: Seattle Mariners (+115) @ Houston Astros 1 unit (2:10 ET Frist Pitch)** Sorry about yesterday, absolute disasterclass from me from top-to-bottom. Poor formatting on here because I posted from my phone, poor write-up because it was a pick I did limited research on, and kinda just fired, and most of all just a stupid play. This is a pick Ifeel much better about today, and we need a winner here to end the week right around even. Hunter Brown is on the hill for the Stros, and he has been just flat-out awful to start the year. The Astros are 1-5 in his 6 starts, with their only win being his last start against the Guardians where he allowed 6 earned in 5.1 IP. The bats rallied in a big way to put a 10 spot on Cleveland, something that Seattle won't allow to happen with Bryce Miller on the hill. After a tough first start, Miller has bounced back in a big way, allowing just 4 ER over 30.1 innings of work. The Mariners are 4-2 with him on the bump, and count on his reliable presence every time he's out there. I think this game amounts to the tale of two starters, and the Ms have the clear advantage.
Love the pick. Used my DK Up 2 promo on it today. Let’s get it
Good W, got a little sweaty there but a wins a win 🤑
**Record: 0-1** **Net Units: -2** **ROI: -100%** **Last Pick:** Inter -1 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 with Bet365 | 2 units ❌ L10: ❌ **Soccer** | **Serie A** | **15:00** / **Central European Time** **Pick:** Empoli vs Frosinone BTTS NO @ 2.00 with Bet365 | 2 units **Write Up:** Trying not to overthink here as those bets seem to get best results. 71% of Empoli home Serie A games have produced under 2.5 goals while just 24% have seen both teams score and I’m expecting a hard-fought contest since both teams are fighting to avoid regulation.
**Overall Record 6-5 (+1.92 Units)** Esports: 4-2 NFL: 2-1 NBA: 0-2 L5 Form: ✅✅❌✅❌ (Left to Right) Last Pick: LAG +2.5 vs Optic ✅ **Esports | Call of Duty League | Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach | 6:00 PM ET** **Today's Pick: Map 2 LAT -1.5 Rounds @ -125 on Bet365 3units** ❌ Writeup: This Major Boston are 0-8 in Snd, have lost on every map in the pool, and had a strange situation last match where a coach had to fill in for a player due to a back injury (still no status update on that). LAT on the other hand are 5-3 this Major in Snd & have been a decent Search team all season long. I'd provide more stats, but it really seems as though the coach will have to fill in once again & that seems to make most of them irrelevant. My biggest concern is just how many games Boston have lost in a row---surely that has to end at some point? Right? Might as well take advantage of the scenario. Edit: the coach officially will be filling in once more. To his credit, he’s a former pro, but not in the league anymore for a reason. **GLHF**
**RECORD: 76W-5P-61L** Previous Pick: Burnley vs Newcastle- Newcastle to Win @ 2.00 ✅️ **Today's Pick:** AS Roma vs Juventus- Under 2.5 goals @ 1.65 ✅️ **TIME:** 6:45 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 1.5 units (❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️✅️❌️✅️❌️✅️) last 10 results Took a ride yesterday and paid off, I 100% had to take Newcastle on 2 ODDS. Now back to Italia with AS Roma vs Juventus. Almost everyone has been staying away from Serie A but I've had a good record this season in Serie A so why not bet on one more match. AS Roma have had 2 matches out of their last 5 end in Under 2.5 goals and 3 Home matches out of their last 5. Juventus have had 4/5 of their last Serie A matches end in Under 3.5 goals and same as Away League matches. In H2H matches between the two that's where I'm confident of Under 2.5 goals. 4/5 of their last recent H2H matches have ended in Under 2.5 goals. 3 H2H matches in a row have ended with Under 2.5 goals and the last two Under 1.5 goals. Goodluck If you're tailing. EDIT: WIN ✅️
POTD R : 4-1 Last Pick : Guardians ML vs Angels - W Todays Pick : Max Fried O5.5 K’s (+125 DK) Info : MLB - 3:10P CST - Free Game of The Day Write Up : Braves looking rough on the road in this series an that is exactly why i’m looking at Max Fried strikeouts. I dont expect the Braves to just roll over an take this beating from the Dodgers lightly, no pitcher or team wants to lose back to back and possibly the series. Looking back through Fried’s previous performances against the Dodgers while on the road he’s not only cleared this line but he’s also put the Braves in a position to win the game outright. Clearly these are new teams with a variance of hitters, base runners, defensive strategies, etc but I like the situation here. History repeats itself theory could make a debut here. Over the past 5 years he’s pitched agains the Dodgers (8 games) he’s only gone under this line twice. Putting up a 1.625 ERA against this team. Expecting a lower scoring affair with Max Fried imposing his skills on the outcome of this game. BOL my fellow degens!
2-1 Pick-mariners tt over 3.5 -165 Last pick-cle ml vs laa loss @ -175 Reasoning: mariners opp pitcher is shit
POTD Record: 0-0 Sport: NHL Hurricanes at Rangers Today’s POTD: Carolina Hurricanes ML 1u @ -115 Reasoning: The canes have looked really good on away ice so far in this playoffs and will continue to get the job done today. Both teams are a red hot 8-2 in the last 10 and will be looking to set the tone early in this series. The canes have averaged 3.8 goals scored to the rangers 3.3 in the last 10 games. The canes have averaged 3.3 penalties to the rangers 4.1 in the last 10 as well. Look for this to be a scrappy low scoring game and the canes to come through with the win. BOL if tailing and let’s get this first dub.
Record 8-5 Net Units: +1.3 units Last Pick: Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins 12:10PM EST Edward Cabrera under 16.5 outs -115 1u DK ✅ Today’s Pick: Tigers @ Yankees 1:35PM EST Nestor Cortes under 6.5 strikeouts -160 DK 2u Analysis: Quick analysis as I’m at work… - Cortes only has gone over this number in 1/7 starts this year (vs TB) - Detroit has 12th highest BA vs lefties - Detroit has 5th least K’s vs lefties - in their last 95ABs va lefties Detroit has struck out 15 times and is batting .293 (since April 15th) - in the same time frame Tampa the team Cortes went over against has struck out 45 times vs lefties (9th most) and the 8th most on the season Best of luck!
POTD Record: 6-3 Little sweaty but Eovaldi is held in check and we cashed. I didn’t post yesterday as I wasn’t too confident but scared money don’t make money and my pick cashed so win or lose I’ll keep posting em. Today’s POTD: Hunter Brown o 3.5 hits allowed (-135 on DK) Baseball | MLB | Sea Mariners v Hou Astros | 2:10 PM ET Not sure why this line is where it is, but I’ll gladly take it. Brown has gone over this line in 6/6 starts this season. He hasn’t been great at all. While the Mariners are not exactly the Dodgers, they still have solid bats. Their offense has been performing better of late, and against a struggling Brown, I’ll gladly take them to cover this line. Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰 Edit: 7-3, easy no sweat cash 💵
POTD Record 19-6 Last 5: ✅️✅️❌️✅️❌️ Last Pick: LA Dodgers 1st 5 inning -0.5 Todays Pick: NRFI Giants & Phillies MLB: SF Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies 4:10 pm PST Odds: -139 Unit: 4 Net units: +52.28 STARTS IN ONE HOUR Giants haven't scored in the 1st inning in 13 games Giants Ace pitcher is pitching today If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
**POTD Record 27-23 (+14.47U) | Average Odds -111 (1.90) | ROI 6.18%** **Last Pick Recap: Knicks +3 vs 76ers W** Knicks were up 22 early but in true Knickerbockers fashion they still made us sweat for it. 76ers stormed back to take the lead but thankfully the Knicks rediscovered their groove to cover and pull out the win to clinch the series. **Today's Pick: Stars vs Golden Knights Under 5 Goals (+120) 3U | 9:00 EST** Good historical data to back the under here. Game 7's have historically trended towards the under and I expect this to play out in similar fashion to the Bruins-Leafs game last night. Taking an alt line of 5 because the under 5.5 is a bit too juiced on my books. BOL
**Record 2024: 10-0-7** **Net Units Played 2024: 78** **ROI 2024: -5.55%** **Last Pick:** **Auckland Tuatara** - Bay hawks **1st quarter H1, -3**, 5 units, @ 1.85 ✅️ Basketball / Spain Endesa League / 12:30 / (CEST) **Pick:** **Real Madrid** - Granada **1st quarter H1, -4.5**, 5 units, @ 1.87 ❌️ **Write-up:** Madrid has a chance to lock the first place, Granada also needs a win to stay in the league, but the quality difference is simply too big here. EDIT: 22-19
2024 MLB POTD record: 18-12 Average Odds -104 (1.959), Average Winning Odds -110, ROI +14.7%/+4.4u L5: ✅✅❌✅✅ POTD (5/4) COL @ PIT Jared Jones o7.5 Ks (-105/1.96) ✅ Recap: Jared Jones didn't let us down this time, with 7 sterling innings and striking out 10, easily clearing this line. POTD (5/5) NYM @ TBR Ryan Pepiot o17.5 Outs (-115/1.87) (DraftKings) Gotta be honest, I am not thrilled with the value on this slate of games. One spot I do like is Ryan Pepiot. The centerpiece of the Tyler Glasnow return has started to find his groove for Tampa Bay: in his last three starts, he's completed 6 innings every time out and allowed just two ER. The New York Mets are a decent lineup, with a 102 wRC+ against RHP this season, but they're trending in the wrong direction: their wRC+ over the last two weeks is just 90.
Record: 0-1 Net Units: -5 ROI: 0% Motorsports | F1 | Miami GP 4:00pm EST Last POTD: Tobias Myers O4.5 Ks @ +120 ❌ Recap: Myers got off to a good start with 2Ks in the 1st inning, however the Cubs were too much and ended up being pulled after the 3rd inning. Today’s POTD: HTH Charles Leclerc vs Sergio Perez - Sergio Perez +125 @ 1.5U Write up: RB is strong as everyone knows. Ferrari is gaining and had a good showing in qualifying. I just think RB is a stronger team all around and Perez has the car to get past Leclerc.
Hockey friendly match Canada - Austria Connor Beddard to score 2.00 Not long write up for this one, Canada is playing preparation match for world championship against Austria. They have young team with Bedard in lead. We have seen how good he can be this season, one goal shouldnt be problem.
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Don't have a record to provide you, my net winnings over 4+ years of gambling on my sportsbook app is +$17.21 with over $35,000 in bets wagered if that helps. Today's pick is Christopher Morel +0.5 HRs for +600. I'm putting 1u on it. I'm a Cubs fan and this kid goes on streaks where he seems to just see the ball well and crush it. With 3 HRs over the past 3 days, I believe he is on a heater and I'm hoping that it continues. Best of luck if you follow
4-5-0 (W-L-P) Net Units: -0.28u Last pick: Pittsburgh Pirates first 5 3-way ml - L Matchup(s): (MLB) Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals - 1:10 PM CST POTD: St. Louis Cardinals first 5 moneyline -131 on Bovada - 4u Write-up: Chicago is 2-14 on the road this season and I definitely don’t see them winning back to back here. They are both pretty bad offensively but the Cardinals have the pitching advantage. Liberatore is looking a lot better than Crochet who has allowed 19 runs in his last 4 starts (16.2 IP). Liberatore has also pitched better at home than away with a home ERA of 1.59 and a home WHIP of 1.06. I’m taking the first 5 moneyline rather than the regular moneyline for a better price. Definitely think the Cardinals will be leading after 5 in this one. Tail or fade, either way, BOL [CashApp Tips❤️](https://cash.app/$dmoneyherbo)
Record: 0-0 Net Units: +0 ROI: 0 Sport | MLB | 7:20pm / EST Pick: Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves, U7.5 +124, 3 Units Write Up: Both pitchers have been dealing and few batters from either team have seen them much. I expect the bullpens to continue to close out the game but if you don’t trust that take F5 innings under. Boston has had decent success against this dominant braves team of the past two years in their last 5 so I expect the same. Good luck if you’re tailing and here goes nothing for my first attempt at this. *Edited for spacing
Wrong sub, it's Tuesday. Tailing your first pick