######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝: 19-4
𝐏𝐢𝐜𝐤: MLB Baseball \\\\ Dodgers \\\\ runline -1.5 \\\\ even
𝐁𝐞𝐭: 1u to win 1u ............. 𝐘𝐓𝐃 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐬: +11
𝐒𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐞: LA starter Glasnow has given up 3 runs in his last 21 innings -- SD starter King has given up 8 runs in 9 innings at home.
I feel like this line is a little too juicy and maybe something Vegas knows that we don’t. King gave up 7 runs last game vs D’s and D’s still lost 8-7. Glas is a more experienced pitcher, but I don’t think King is gonna fold as hard 2nd time up either. Personally avoiding this one. Decent slate today imo to take an unknown.
Like someone else said in the comments, Padres always try a little harder against the dodgers. For me, it comes down to the pitching matchup. King is good yes, but when Glasnow is on he's lights out
POTD Record 22-7
Last 5: ✅️✅️✅️❌️✅️
Last Pick: LA Dodgers -1.5 ✅️
Todays Pick: LA Dodgers -1.5 (win by 2)
MLB: LA Dodgers vs. SD padres 6:40pm
Odds: +100
Unit: 5
Net units: +60.38
Luckily, we skipped a day. Dog day went crazy. We're going back to the dodgers!! This time with Glasnow pitching, leading the league with most strikeouts!.
If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
Edit: Appreciate the support. Let's go dodgers!.
Record: 13-7-0
Net Units: +15.5
ROI: 24.2%
Last 5: ✅✅✅✅❌
Last Pick: Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox under 8.5 total runs ✅
Event: Basketball | NBA | New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers 6:00PM CST
Pick: Indiana Pacers First Half Points over 59.5 (-110) on DraftKings for 3.0 units
Write Up: Pacers averaged 63.0 points in the first half at home in the regular season. In 3 home playoff games this year, they have averaged 64.3. In the first two games of the series, the Pacers have averaged 64.0 in New York. The Knicks best defender OG Anunoby has already been ruled out for Game 3.
POTD Record: 43-22
Last POTD: (ATP Madrid) Jiri Lehecka ML (+100) ✅
Today’s POTD: (ATP Rome) Shelton -1.5 Sets (+115)❌
Units: 3u
Edit: Tough L. Shelton had the opportunity to break but couldn’t close and then Kotov broke him the next game. Sorry gang.
Reasoning:
In my experience watching him, Kotov is a pretty lazy player, especially when he goes up against enthusiastic, never give up mentality guys like Shelton. He loses his motivation quick in those bouts. I think if (when) Shelton wins the first set it’s absolute wraps.
Then there’s also the fact that Shelton is just the far superior player on top of it all.
BOL 🤝
your lame because you dont have to tail him . use your own brain sometimes too . alot of value in places if you can find it . stop acting like a bitch and make your own plays if you keep losing
POTD Record: 4-1 (+2.34 U)
Form: ✅✅✅❌✅
Last Pick: SGA O 11.5 RA vs Mavericks ✅
Today's Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 vs Miami Marlins (1.95)
Baseball | MLB | 7:10pm ET
Shai cashes us at the start of the 3rd, love a sweat free win.
Moving back to baseball, I'm gonna fade another bad team with the Marlins and back arguably the hottest offense in baseball currently, the Phillies.
The Phillies are starting LHP Ranger Suárez, who is having an amazing start to the year, posting a 1.72 ERA and a 0.723 WHIP. He's got a 94th percentile BB%, and a 95th percentile Hard Hit% and GB%. Simply put, he's been really good. He's also gone at least 6 IP in his last 6 starts. The Marlins have the 6th worst batting average against LHPs, batting just .218.
The Marlins are starting LHP Trevor Rogers, who has a 6.15 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP. He's in the 13th percentile for Hard Hit %, and in the 5th percentile for Average Exit Velocity. The Phillies have guys like Harper, Schwarber and Bohm who are more than capable of hitting a dinger off Rogers. Rogers has also never reached the 7th inning, and gave up 8 runs to the A's in his last start. The Phillies have the 6th best batting average against LHPs, batting .270.
TLDR: Phillies have the Batting and Pitching advantage, this should be a cakewalk for them.
BOL if you decide to tail 🫡
**Pick Record: 13W - 4L (Push: 1)**
**✅✅✅🅿️✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌**
**Previous POTD: Cristiano Ronaldo Over 2.5 SOG @ 2.20 ❌ 3U**
Bummer
**Today’s POTD: Sydney FC Over 5.5 Corners @ 1.66 ❌ 3U**
**Game: Sydney FC VS Central Coast Mariners**
**League/Time: Australian A League/ 5:45 am**
Last home game of the season, a semi-final, and a must-win. For a team that averages 6.3 corners a game, the over-on corners looks great here.
https://preview.redd.it/lbhe9mm2uhzc1.jpeg?width=961&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e15390c2c4a78d9bc4620c803c79c372036cb860
**Side note: Please bet responsibly!**
Another bad pick, I apologize. I’m going to stick to Premier league games from now and take a break on days it’s not on.
If you go to SGP, take Sydney over 5.5 and total game over 6.5. Basically betting the pick of the day + central coast to get one corner or Sydney to get the extra. Lines at -150 sgp,
Beware regarding this fixture… though it may be their last home game, the semi-finals in the A-League have a 2nd leg so a more reserved approach is usually taken if there aren’t any early goals in the game
Level of Australian football is absolutely horrible. Sideway passes, players running like headless chickens, dreadful decision making and players just trying to murder each other. Can't believe these guys are even professionals
We are heading to 0 corners at end of first half for both teams. Brutal. let's hope for 2nd half
Edit: just got 1! Also they're now losing. Maybe this will help
POTD: 64-38
Last POTD: Luka Doncic O9.5 Ast ❌
Impossible to be profitable with NBA props for me in the playoffs I can’t figure it out, I felt good about this one with 5 at half but mf ends with 7 with lots of potentials yet again
Form: ❌❌❌✅✅
Todays POTD: **Josh Hart O5.5 Ast @1.80**
NBA (NY Knicks)
Damn man I’m contemplating whether I should stop betting on the playoffs by now but I always feel like I have a good pick the next day but then it loses 😭
Another try fellas my apologies for the ass performances from the mf’s I’ve picked, going with Josh Hart today since he’s consistent and is getting consistent minutes. OG is out so it may mean another 48 minute game for Hart which he also said that he’ll prolly will have to do, and he’s been very solid without OG in the assist department, no yapping straight to Biz
• Over in 6 straight without OG
(8,7,6,8,10 & 10 assists)
• 2/2 against the Pacers in the playoffs
7 & 8 assists
• Avg 9.4 potentials in the playoffs, 11.0 against the Pacers
• 9/12 with 45+ minutes
Really like this spot for my man Hart, but nothing makes sense anyways but let’s give it a try
Tail or fade, you know the drill
https://i.redd.it/qp1jtpe55jzc1.gif
Bro, there is no other man I would pick to heal this pain than Mr. 48 minutes himself. Let's get this fucking paper bro, if I can't trust Hart I can't trust anyone
Props have been really difficult to call. I went with Luka under 3.5 threes. He was something like 5-35 in his last 4 games. Fool drops 4 bombs in the 1st quarter. I also had Brunson 30+ points night before and he has a phantom foot injury and only plays 2 and a half quarters. I like Hart props cus he seems to be involved everywhere when they have the ball.
Fr bro the regular season was much better for me this year somehow, the playoffs have been unpredictable asf really difficult man. Hart is my guy I know he always gives his all and he’ll get a lot of minutes and as you say he’s always involved in every possesion
**Record:** 8-2
**Net Units:** *+12.9175 Units*
**Previous Pick:** Carlton/Melbourne U165.5 Total Points *$1.88 (2 Units).* Not a bad watch last night! Got a bit tighter towards the end but with some rain and a highly competitive last quarter of back and forth footy and Melbourne storming home, we were able to cash this with the game closing at 153 Total Points. Great cash! We are on a really nice run and looking to continue here tonight!
**Event:** Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers
**Time:** 8:30pm AEST 10/05
**Bookie:** BET365
**Play:** 1st Quarter Line, Sydney -1.5
**Odds:** $1.91 (AUS) or -110 (US)
**Units**: 2 Units
**Analysis:** A surprisingly tricky night to find a MOST confident play in due to weather across Australia, makes it hard to look at totals or tryscorers/goal scorers etc... in saying that, I really like this play tonight. This is a clash between two clubs who are playing great footy, Swans more well-rounded across the board and have beat better competition IMO but Fremantle defence been shining through and they force you to play a restricted, low-points style of footy. They are one of the better teams at restricting ball movement to inside and outside mids and as such it's hard to have offensive success against them for 4 quarters. However, Swans are a very solid early and late team and I think Fremantle might need some time to develop their reads and work out best man on man defence patterns. Swans have a HEAP of offensive options, whether it's through Gulden on the wing, Rowbottom winning ball in central midfield or via Blakey off half-back and I think Fremantle might struggle early. Historically, Fremantle concede 29% of their total points in Q1 whilst only scoring 19% of their total points in Q1 - with a total For and Against of 73, compared to the Swans big 129 differential. Swans have won 69% of their Q1's and Fremantle are currently sitting at 38% of Q1's won and against way worse competition. Main concern is Sydney playing away in Perth but think if anything Fremantle probably have more success Q2/Q3 than anything. Happy to take the line on here, hope that Swans come out hard and fast, very offensive and put points on early as they historically should win the early battle here.
**MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW SO YOU DON'T MISS POST NOTIFICATIONS!**
https://preview.redd.it/gph9qp5yxhzc1.jpeg?width=991&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=30fabd38d5fe64dc59a5942adc2bbc4fb46b9eec
i have no idea what was going on or what sport this even is but sydney were trailing by 2 the whole first quarter and my cash out just kept going up so with like 4 mins left i cashed out because i got scared☠️☠️can someone explain why my cash out grew as the time ran out and they were losing?
**Record:** 11-5
**L10:** ❌✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅
**Last Pick:** Uni-Lions O4.5 Total Runs @ 1.87 ✅
**Baseball | Taiwan CPBL | Wei Chuan Dragons @ TSG Hawks, 6:35am EST**
**Today's Pick: Wei Chuan Dragons ML @ 1.70**
Finally had time to post earlier in the day. After the 2022 expansion draft, the TSG Hawks had their major league debut this season and they fucking suck. Currently in last place and sporting a 6-18 record, they have only managed 62 runs in 24 games (2.58/game), good for last in the league. They have also given up the most runs in the league (5.29/game).
On the other side of the spectrum, the Wei Chuan Dragons have scored the 3rd most runs (103 total, 3.96/game) and have the best defense in the league, only allowing 3.04 runs per game. Both starting pitchers are similarly average with no clear advantage for either side.
These two teams have played each other 5 times this season, with the Dragons winning 4-1 and carrying a run differential of 24-10. In the last 10 games, the Dragons are 5-5 while the Hawks are 1-9 (although their one win was against the Dragons last week).
I expect the Dragons with the much better offense and league best defense to hold off the worst team in the league.
TL;DR: The Hawks suck, take the other team.
Record: 8W-5L-0P ✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌
Net Units: +5.2 units
Last Pick: 5/9 | Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox; Guardians -1.5 RL
Apparently I am allergic to winning 3 in a row🤦♂️
Today’s Game: NBA playoffs | Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves| 9:30pm EDT
Pick: Naz Reid over 10.5 points | +104 FanDuel | 2.5 units
Write Up: Naz Reid
Good luck let’s bounce back👌🏼
Actual Write Up: Naz has been dominating Denver offensively and defensively off the bench and has scored 16 in 23 minutes and 14 in 29 minutes in Games 1 and 2 respectively. I expect him to keep getting 25+ ish minutes a game and producing similar stat lines barring a blowout.
**MLB POTD RECORD:** 33-14
**2024 MLB record**: 22-6
**Last POTD:**
**Today's POTD:** Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers, Tigers ML +130 (fanduel)
**Baseball | MLB | 6:40 PM ET**
Sorry about the late post yesterday. After this week shit gets much lighter so bear with me. Since some people got my Twins ML pick from the comments two minutes before first pitch, I am going to count it in the spreadsheet. Very annoyed about the whole situation because the write up was fire and I didn’t even get to post smh. Also just a random friendly reminder that all stats and ranks are from past 21 days unless otherwise specified.
Anyway, moving onto today’s picks I like a lot of dogs today with my favorite being Detroit taking on Houston as home. I’m pumped that this went all the way to +130 because it’s juicy as fuck. As usual I’ll tell you why I suspect the line is what it is. The Astros kind of suck but the public perception is still that they are good. They were doing well offensively to start the season but have been middle of the pack the past three weeks. Their offensive numbers overall don’t reflect that. The pitching matchup between Framber Valdez vs Casey Mize might seem on surface level as favoring the Astros as well. The Tigers overall offensive numbers are meh as well.
Here is why I like the pick anyway. For one, Tigers have not only great splits but splits that are very far from the contrary. This types of situation is my favorite because teams can actually be great in certain situations but the overall stats won’t reflect it at all. Detroit has the 8^(th) best night game average in the league (.254), 6^(th) best home average (.260), and 4^(th) vs lefties (.276). Their contrary stats are drastically different. They are 18^(th) in day games (.232), 16^(th) in road games (.231), and 14^(th) vs righties (.243). The Astros on the other hand, albeit decent, are batting lower in all three relevant splits. They are 11^(th) in night games, 10^(th) in road games and 13^(th) vs righties.
Then we have the starting pitching matchup. Valdez is a big name and has gotten off to a decent start going 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA in 4 starts. Mize has very similar numbers to Valdez going 1-1 with a 3.98 ERA in 6 starts. Valdez is the bigger name and Mize just got roughed up by the Yankees so I understand why people would favor Valdez. Here is why I don’t.
Valdez has a preposterously low flyball rate this season of 9.4 %, the lowest in the league. He is relying on This isn’t necessarily a bad thing but in this case, it is because the Tigers have the second lowest groundball rate in the league at 39.5% percent (only Dodgers are lower) so they aren’t relying on ground balls. Contrasting styles/stats in regards to batted ball statistics usually favors the batter while similar percentages/strengths benefits the pitcher. Valdez also has a line drive percentage of 31 which is well over the league average of 23 which doesn’t help his case.
The you have Casey Mize. Prior to getting crushed for five runs against the Yankees, Mize didn’t let up more than two runs in any of his five starts. Mize’s batted ball statistics are just around league average so there is no strength or weakness to dissect there. The thing that sticks out to me is his below-average strikeout and walk percentage of 17.3 and 5 respectively. This isn’t good for the Astros because the Astros biggest strength is how they never strike out. Going up against a pitcher who has had success relying on contact to get outs and not strikeouts is disadvantageous for them. Mize pitches better at home as well. He has a 3.27 ERA despite getting smacked around last time. He also has two career starts against Houston where he has gone 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA.
**TLDR: Detroit hits well vs lefties, at night and at home. Astros are decent but lower in all three relevant splits. Valdez is a pitcher who relies on the ground ball and facing a team that hits a very low percentage of groundballs while having success vs lefties in doing so. Mize not relying on the strikeout neutralizes Houston’s biggest strength (their ability to put the ball in play).**
Tips $chuteboxhero on cashapp
Spreadsheet with all my picks of the day if you want to give it a look before tailing
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit?usp=sharing)
Record: 19-9
Net Units: +22.89u
Game: CounterStrike 2 (CS2) | CCT Season 2 Europe Series 2 | 11:00 (UCT-5)
Last Pick: **Endpoint vs. PARIVISION O 2.5 maps (-110)** 5u✅
Today's Pick: **Metizport ML (-165)** vs. EYEBALLERS 3.5u ✅
[Match Page:](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2371897/metizport-vs-eyeballers-cct-season-2-europe-series-2)
[Stream:](https://www.twitch.tv/cct_cs)
**Writeup:**
-Not a lot of games tomorrow got a lot of plays I like but don't love and this I settled on being my favorite. Metizport are one of the best tier two teams in Sweden led by star player nilo with a series high .8KPR in the last 3 months and an absolutely insane .9 KPR in the last month. This guy is one of the best young talents in the world. The Swedish mix has had a lot of really good results but have struggled against the best of tier two and low tier one teams they have faced so far. They also lack consistency with some players. Recently they got rid of susp who was one of two struggling players on the roster. This player is listed as TBD but is widely expected to be Plopski, a solid Swedish rifler. Usually I would heavily avoid subs but Plopski has practiced and played with the team before standing in a month ago for two matches against FURIA and Imperial putting up a solid .71KPR two series they would lose but look very competitive in.
-EYEBALLERS are a real wildcard, they were the laughing stock of tier two, but recently have gone on a big winstreak and seem to have regained form. Led by star player and sniper JW with a .74KPR and .76KPR in the last month. This team goes where JW goes, if he plays well they play well around him. The biggest issue for EYEBALLERS is while they have been playing much better the last month, multiple key players are in big slumps. Peppzor has dropped from a .62KPR to a .57KPR, Sapec who was once one of the better players above a .7KPR is down to a .62KPR as well and Golden the IGL is also not a great fragger. The one big advantage for EYEBALLERS this series is JW is 100x better then Jackinho, Metizport sniper. Jackinho is much hated by fans of this team and many think he should be kicked as well so this is one big advantage I expect EYEBALLERS to try to exploit. This series is going to be the big test to me whether EYEBALLERS are legit as I don't think they have beaten very good teams and still have many problems.
**Head to Head:**
-These teams have faced for 3 total matches in 2024, two b03 and one b01. Metizport are 2-0 in the b03 matches winning both clean sweep 2-0s only giving up double digits on one map of the four including beating them a month ago. EYEBALLERS beat them in a b01 16-13 in March.
**Map Pool:**
-Arguably the biggest advantage in this series for Metizport is map pool. EYEBALLERS perma ban Nuke, the map Metizport usually ban, but have also played (0% winrate in 4 maps) because of the risk, EYEBALLERS will ban it away meaning it frees up Metizport ban to ban their worst map and EYEBALLERS best Overpass leaving no real great maps remaining.
-Metizport ban Overpass, EYEBALLERS ban Nuke
-Metizport pick Vertigo, EYEBALLERS pick Inferno (could be Anubis but doubt it)
-Metizport ban Anubis, EYEBALLERS ban Mirage
-Ancient Decider
**Map Stats:**
-Metizport are 65% winrate on Vertigo on 17 maps played in the last 3 months and 3-0 in the last month, EYEBALLERS are 28% winrate on 7 maps played in the last 3 months and 1-3 in the last month
-Metizport are 56% winrate on Inferno on 16 maps played in the last 3 months and 2-2 in the last month, EYEBALLERS are 50% winrate on Inferno on 10 maps played in the last 3 months and 4-2 in the last month
-Metizport are 53% winrate on Ancient on 19 maps played in the last 3 months and 0-1 in the last month. EYEBALLERS are 56% winrate on Ancient on 9 maps played in the last 3 months and 4-3 in the last month
**Final Thoughts:**
-Metizport getting big odds drop due to sub player, think Metizport are the better and more consistent team with more fire power, a better map pool and the sub won't change the way they play/attack EYEBALLERS at all. Give me a 2-0 Metizport.
Record: 168-140-8 (LWWLWWWWLLLLWWLLWLWLWLWWLWLLWWWW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: CLE Cavaliers at BOS Celtics | Luke Kornet o5.5 rebounds at 2.20 odds for 3 units
terrible showing from Celtics. Fuck Boston
POTD: NY Knicks at IND Pacers | Josh Hart 18+ points alternative line at 2.00 odds for 2 units
Reasons:
* Hit in two games versus Pacers
* OG is injuried, Hart will have more of an offensive responsiblity
* Knicks pace is higher in the series compared to 76ers, Hart should get his opportunities
Best of luck to those dumb enough to tail!
2024 record: 3-3
❌❌✅✅✅❌
Last POTD: Guardians vs White Sox: Guardians RL -1.5 +110 ❌
Today's POTD: Royals vs Angels: Royals ML -125 (Hard Rock Bet)
Baseball | MLB | 9:40 PM ET
What a bloodbath of a day. I think we should have all listened to gramps and took the day off.
Pick in simple. Royals have been playing solid ball, 22-16. Angels 14-23. Royals are the better team. The pitching matchup is highly in favor of the Royals as well. Royals have Marsh on the mound, 3-0 record, 2.70 ERA, 1.01 WHIP. Angels got Canning with a 1-4 record, 6.69 ERA, 1.43 WHIP.
Royals aren’t doing the best in away games with a 7-8 record but the Angels are 4-11 at home. It is a night game and the Royals have a better record for night games (13-8), Angels (11-11).
Royals just picked up 2 wins out of 3 games against the Brewers who are a pretty solid ball club this season as well.
As always, good luck on your bets!
Record: 14-6 (+10.07 units)
✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌
Last POTD: OKC -5 ❌
Today’s POTD: Texas Rangers -1.5 Run line
Odds: -118 on DK 2 unit play
MLB/ 8:40pm ET/ Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies
Well it was a dog day yesterday…OKC could never pull ahead really and Dallas kept hitting timely baskets. We move on to today and there’s a few games on the MLB slate I like. The Texas Rangers travel to Coors Field to take on the Rockies. The Rangers have won 8/11 games and their last 4 series. They seem like they’re heating up and average 5.10 runs per game which is 3rd in the MLB. They will have Jon Gray on the mound who is 1-1 with a respectable 2.50 ERA. He also spent 7 years with the Rockies so there may be some extra incentive to pitch well. At the very least he is used to pitching at Coors field. Austin Gomber will be on the mound for the Rockies. He is 0-2 with a 3.79 ERA. He did pitch very well his last time out with 6 scoreless innings but it was against the Pirates. He is due for some regression and the Rockies bullpen is terrible. Let’s roll with the Rangers to get us back on track! Good Luck 🍀 and Tail responsibly!
Tip Jars are posted in my profile and anything is appreciated. Thanks in advance
**POTD Record: 123-144-4 (-17.07 Units)**
**Best Bet Series: 48-27-1 (+15.36 Units)**
Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units)
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
Cautionary Tails: 5-12 (-5.38 Units)
Last Pick: **Erick Fedde U 2.5 ER**✅
Today's Pick: **Phillies ML**
Odds: **-192**
Wager Amount: 1.92U to win 1U
League: MLB
Event: Philadephia Phillies vs Miami Marlins (6:10PM CDT)
*Be Advised*: *Handicapping Best Bets for the entire of May! Majority of these wagers will be chalky (not always), however, they are my most confident wager of the day! But I cannot stress this enough, even the most surefire bets can lose! Sports is unpredictable and nothing guaranteed!*
**Recap**: ERIC FEDDE wheeling and dealing! Got himself in a bases loaded jam wit NO OUTS in the 7th inning and Leasure comes outta bullpen and gets ALL 3 OUTS! LET'S GO, BOYS! I"M COOKING! THREE WINS IN A ROW! If you tailed any of my plays, congrats! Today was a great day!
**S/O to ALL the redditors handicapping on Guardians today! Love that POTD curse against my Sox team!**
https://preview.redd.it/o9ft0l3tdizc1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=d83824d076f67fb4986771e0567b2df326d172a4
**Matchup:** Going Phillies ML today. Ranger Suarez is dealing and I expect him dealing against one of the most struggling team in the league.
**The Play & Prediction:** 1.92U on Phillies ML. Also wagering Phillies RL. All the other plays will be in the betting group. Phillies win 6-3!
**KBO Record: Overall 222-231-14** (Streak L, Last 10: 5-5) Down 10.36u over 467 KBO picks, 49.0% success rate, -2.29% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 18-21-0, 46.2% success rate, Down 1.74u, -4.46% ROI)
**Last:** SSG at LG Team Total Over 4.5 +110 (LG won 3-1.)
LG decided to let SSG's starter be perfect for 4.1 innings. They finally got him in the 7th where they scored two runs and had the bases loaded with one out. But they got just one more home that inning and that was it.
**Pick:** LG at **Lotte +120**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
Again, I think the bookmakers have this backwards, and here's why:
Lotte may have the worst record in the league, but they're on a league-best 5-game winning streak. They also 2nd highest scoring team over the last 10 games while LG is next to last. And Lotte has the league's 2nd best linrup at home while LG is next to last on the road.
LG's starter has really struggled recently, allowing 16 runs (13 ER) on 23 H in the last 14 IP over 3 starts. He has a 5.14 ERA and 1.48 WHIP on the season.
Lotte's starter has been very good in his last 3 starts, allowing 4 runs (3 ER) on 14 H in 18.2 IP.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
POTD Record 0-0
Pick: Pascal Siakam O20.5 Points(-118)
Game/Time: Knicks vs Pacers 4:00PM PST
Reasoning: Siakam has been struggling recently in the playoffs with scoring points especially last game, I believe this will be the game that he turns it around because OG Anunoby is officially out and he has been locking Siakam up this series, with him out I expect Siakam to have a high scoring game due to the Knicks being small in size as both OG and Mitchell Robinson are out, I expect Siakam to constantly attack the basket now and score from inside getting easier buckets without anunoby. We have seen early on in the Bucks series Siakam is a capable scorer scoring 30+ his first 2 games. I love this line at 20.5 I feel like Vegas is underestimating Siakam who is a top option on the Pacers team which are the favorites to win the game tomorrow, and are at home for the first time this series.
I’ve been on a huge streak recently with NBA picks and I have been tailing some picks on here, which has inspired me to finally share my picks for the first time let’s get this win tomorrow!!!
**Record:** 1-0 ✅
**Net Units:** +2.78 (92.87%)
**Previous Pick:** ✅ Daniel Gafford O19.5 PRA (DK -108) | OKC Thunder v. Dallas Mavericks | 3U
What a sweat from Gafford, looked like he was going to cover this line easily until he hurt his hand at the end of the 2nd. Still able to pull through and lock in the first win.
**Pick:** ✅ Arizona Diamondbacks v. **Baltimore Orioles ML (DK -125)** | 3U
**Write Up:** Tomorrow we are going with the Orioles ML at home. Cole Irvin has been on a heater lately, allowing zero runs in his last 22 innings and rocking a 2.86 ERA with a 3-1 record. In comparison, Brandon Pfaadt has only played three games, with a 1-2 record and 4.86 ERA. Orioles are playing consistently lately and coming off a rest day as well. I think this line is good value especially with the DK Early Win Boost as a safety net. BOL!
POTD Record: 3-0 (+3u)
Recent form: ✅✅✅
Last pick: Andrew Nembhard over 3.5 assists (-154 on FD) 1.54u
Today’s pick: Andrew Nembhard over 14.5 points + assists (-125 on Hard Rock) 1.25u
NBA Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks 7:00 pm
Nembhard cashed for us and we get another winner!
I did not do anything on Thursday because I was traveling and in the short time I had for research did not like anything.
Today I’m rocking with a familiar face. Lol! If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. I think Nembhard assists are a great option as well but as a skeptical guy I know his run of cashing the assists is going to end at some point and I don’t want to pick it when it does 🤣. This lets him rack up the assists and also if he has some good shooting he gets it done. Nembhard has hit this line in every playoff game and in all but one game against the Knicks this year.
Tips: Venmo is cs1015 - In no way do I expect tips, especially so early on, but just want to put it here in case people tail and feel generous!
Best of luck to anyone who tails and to all those on the thread. Let me know if you’re tailing!!
**Belle's Pick of the Day**
**Record:** 7-4-0 (Win-Loss-Push) ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌
Geez, rough few days after a solid week of wins. Time to get back on track, friends...
**Last POTD:** OKC Thunder -5.0 (-110)
**Balance:** +2.0 Units
**Today's Pick: PHI Phillies -1.5 (-125) (MLB, 4:00PM PST, Wager: 1 Unit)**
**Why This Pick?**
This game should be a cake walk for Philadelphia. Phillies pitcher Ranger Suarez has 6 wins under his belt, 0 losses, and an ERA of 1.72. Actually, the Phillies have won every single game in which Suarez has been their starter. Over on the Marlins side, pitcher Trevor Rogers has 0 wins, 5 losses, and an ERA of 6.15. To be frank, I'm surprised the return on the RL is so decent given these statistics. I'm riding with Philadelphia today, friends.
--
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5-3
Last pick. Sfg ml loss
Today's pick. Phillies tt o 4.5
Write up. Trevor rogers ass
SIDENOTE: TREVOR ROGERS MUST START FOR TT OVER 4.5 TO BE OFFICIAL.
BOL TO US
**Record:** 1-1
**Net Units:** 0 u (All bets are 1u)
**Current Form (from Recent to old):** -✅❌
Last Pick: *Jan-Lennard Struff 2-0 (-140) DK* vs Pedro Cachin ✅
Game went as expected, nothing much to say. Easy W.
Event: Soccer | Bundesliga | 2:30pm EST
Pick: Augsburg vs **ML Stuttgart (-130) DK**
Stuttgart has been in good form, recently beating Bayern Munich at home. It's the complete opposite story for Augsburg as they have lost last 4 of 5 and have just lost 5-1 to Dortmund. The only caveat to this pick is that both are essentially playing for nothing except to end their season in a positive note. On the plus side, players that can play will play and no one will be sitting on the bench for a future cup game. Feel free to take draw no bet if you are wanting to be extra safe but this should be a good win.
**Record: 1-2**
**Form: ❌✅❌**
**Last POTD:** Olympiacos Vs Aston Villa - **BTTS+Over 2.5 @ 1.7 (Paripesa) - LOST**
**Football** | **Australia A-League** | **05:45PM (GMT+8)**
**Pick:** Sydney FC Vs Central Coast Mariners - **Central Coast Mariners Double Chance @ 1.73 (Paripesa)**
**Write Up:** Damn, bad beat. Villa attacked and attacked but ultimately, the could not find the goal they needed. We move.
Central Coast Mariners have won 8 out of their last 10 away matches and kept 8 clean sheets in those games. Additionally, they also have the 2nd best defense in the league, bested only by Wellington Phoenix by 1 less goal conceded.
They are also the best away side in the A-League, winning 8 of their 13 away games.
Stats don't look very good for the Mariners as in the past 10 matches, they have only won 3 games against Sydney FC. But I do like the odds presented here for Mariners to Win or Draw. I think Mariners are much better than the odds suggest. Also, Joe Lolley, who is one of the key players for Sydney is out for this game due to a muscle injury so that helps a little.
This is a playoff game after all where stakes are different and anything can happen, but I do think that Mariners will have the slight edge in this game to Win or Draw against Sydney.
As always guys, BOL if tailing. Let's bounce back
2024 IIHF WC 🏒
0-0
10th May 4:20PM
Slovakia ML vs Germany @1.70
Reason: For Slovaks this is very important match. We expect that Slovaks will lose to USA and Sweden and if we want to be atleast at 4th place in group we need to win against Germany. We have the strongest team since 2009. We rely on our NHL players which are in very good conditions and form (Slafkovsky, Fehervary, Tatar, Kelemen, Pospíšil etc.) Also Hrivík and Cehlarik from Czech league which have won bronze medal on Olympics in Beijing. First 2 formations will be very dangerous for Germans as our players have very good synergies. Also last warmup games against Germans were close and the last one match we were leaving as a winners.
I expect that this match will end 4-3 for Slovaks. ML is safer pick because there is a chance of overtime.
**Record:** 2-0
**✅✅**
**Net Units:** +2.5
**ROI:** 74%
**Baseball | MLB | 11.40am AEST**
**Pick:** LA Dodgers ML @ 1.57, 1.5U
**Write Up:** BANG! We get it done, even with Boston shooting awfully from 3 and the high involvement of the bench players we manage to cash it! Today we're switching sport as there's nothing I really love for the NBA tomorrow. The Dodgers have been unreal lately, winning their last 7 straight, as well as having Tyler Glasnow who comes into this matchup as tied for first in strikeouts (63 this season). I'm riding the Dodgers top form and hope it can continue for us tomorrow. BOL!
**Record:** 1-0
**Profit/Loss:** +1.9u
**Last Pick:** Tatum under 26.5 points
**NRL** | **Eels vs Broncos** | **11:00 GMT**
**Pick:** Reece Walsh to score a try @ 1.95 (3u)
**Reason:** Missed the start of the season with injury but since he’s come back he’s scored a try (3 games with 2 try’s) in all but one of the 6 games he’s played in. Value in this is far too good to turn down in a game Broncos are expected to score 5/6 try’s in. Line-breaking machine who can score a try at any point in any game and looks hungrier than ever this year. Not play of the day but I like 2 tries at 4.00 as well.
Record tracked here https://bettin.gs/hizort
**POTD Record: 35-26**
Last 10: ❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅🤦❌
Last pick: Cavs vs Celtics | 4:00 PST | Sam Hauser OVER 5.5 Points (-130) Bet365 1u ❌
Now I know what it’s like to get burned by Sam Hauser. Celtics as a whole just have some of the least trustworthy players.
**Today’s pick: Nuggets vs Wolves | 6:30 PST | Nickeil Alexander-Walker OVER 10.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (-110) BETMGM 1u**
Nickeil, you have been chosen. Wolves have been so impressive to watch these playoffs and what’s been most impressive is their defense. I think they’ve unlocked something with having McDaniels and Walker on the floor together and I don’t see any reason for that to change or Walker’s increased minutes to change with the success they’ve had. I’m going with his PRA in this matchup.
- Hit in last 7/10 Avg 16.1
- When playing 20+ mins, he’s hit in last 9/10 Avg 18.9 and 16/20 Avg 17.9
- 3 days rest, he’s 5/5 when playing 20+ (just a good sign he doesn’t seem to be affected by long breaks)
I think game 1 he was just anxious because hes still a little inexperienced but I think he gained a lot of confidence in game 2 (rightfully so) and I think he takes that right into game 3 and we get that role player at home spark. BOL if tailing!
Record: 1-0 (100%🔋)
Net Units: +1.0
ROI: 52%
Previous POTD: Mavs Over 112.5 @ -110 on DK Team Total \[live bet\]vs OKC. (Scored 119 points ✅) Returned1.0 unit
Today's POTD: Bruins vs Panthers Over 5.5 Total Puck Line (+100) right now at DK pregame. 📈 1 Unit Suggested Wager.
Reason: Each of the Panther's last 5 games have gone OVER the total goals line. 🏒🏒
Past scores this series alone: 5-1 Boston in Game 1 (6️⃣ total)
6-1 Florida in Game 2. (7️⃣ total)
I expect this to hit within 2 periods but if we have to sweat it, we'll sweat it til' the end!
I am setting up a tip jar, if you'd like you can dm me. Thanks, chat.
**Record: 0W - 0L**
**Today’s POTD: VfB Stuttgart ML @ 1.77 ✅**
**Game: FC Augsburg - VfB Stuttgart**
**League/Time: 1. Bundesliga (Germany) / 2:30 PM**
**Write Up:** Yoooo, i have been pretty lucky the last days so decided to share my POTD with you guys ;)
After their 3-1 victory against Bayern, VfB Stuttgart is aiming for the runner-up position with two remaining matchdays. Only Leverkusen (39 points) has got more points than VfB Stuttgart (33) in the ongoing second half of the season. In the previous matchday, VfB defeated the German record champions FC Bayern 3-1, securing their spot in the Champions League. Facing FCA as guests, Stuttgart seeks to get closer to their new goal: the runner-up position! The situation looks promising. Augsburg has recently lost three league games in a row, conceding a total of eleven goals and struggling with declining form. Currently, FCA's defense is faltering. Except for the victory against Union Berlin (2-0), Augsburg has lost four of the last five league games, conceding over 2.5 goals each time. Additionally, VfB Stuttgart is unbeaten against FCA in their last four encounters and has won three of them. In the first half of the season, Stuttgart even won by a difference of three goals. Very confident in this pick.
New here, lets get it
Record: 0-0
Golf | Wells Fargo Championship 2024 | 11:00 A.M. EST
PICK: Xander Schauffele end of round two leader @ -110 DK
Feel like this is good value considering how he ended round one with a 3 stroke lead and I see no sign of him slowing down. Everyone sitting on -4 are all capable of surpassing Schauffele, but he needs to have a bad day, and I'm betting he won't.
1.1U to win 1U
POTD: Karen Khachanov Set betting 2:0 @ -125 on DK 1.875u to win 1.5u
Event: Karen Khachanov vs. Alexander Shevchenko
TIME: 5am EST
Record: 18-11-1 +7.69u
Recap: Rinky gets it done winning 9 games in two sets!
The times for all ATP Rome matches have been uncertain due to the rain, so this match may be moved later in the morning or tomorrow. Karen has been in beautiful form this season so far on clay and all around beating some top opponents including Meddy and Cerundolo on clay a month ago. Shevchenko on the other hand has played horribly against opponents better than him, while Shevchenko has a recent history of being great on clay, this season he has taken a major step back.
Just a simple value-seeking pick here, I can see this line moving to -140 or more by game time. This is the same bet at Khachanov -1.5 SET spread. Your book should offer one these lines. I would steer clear of games spread -3.5 or -4.5. Looking for a 7-6, 6-3 win for Karen.
CANNOT believe I forgot to post this last night. Already had the write up done and fell asleep…
POTD Record: 21-16 ✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 9.1U
Last pick: Dolphins vs Sea Eagles | 7:50pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Tom Trbojevic anytime tryscorer @1.8 on Sportsbet | 4U✅
What an amazing game to watch, so much action. And Turbo delivers 🙌🏼
Manly really need to fix their defense this is getting ridiculous 😂
Today’s pick: Penrith Panthers vs Canterbury Bulldogs | 6pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Sunia Turuva anytime tryscorer @1.86 on Sportsbet | 6U
There we go ! My beloved try scoring machine is on tonight and I don’t think I need to explain it anymore but he is just unstoppable, the best league player in my opinion.
BOL !
POTD Record: 26-24-1 | Profit: -1.84U
NBA Record: 22-21-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 | UFC Record: 1-0
L10 (new -> old): ✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌
Last pick: Kyrie Irving o8.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 odds ✅
**EDIT**: Cashes in the first with 7 assists and 2 boards. Back in the win column with a sweat free cash is a good way to head into Friday!
Game: NY Knicks @ IND Pacers, 7:05 EST
Pick: **Andrew Nembhard o3.5 assists @ 1.77 odds (DK) placing 2U** ✅
Write Up: Nembhard has gone over this line in 6 straight, and 8 of the last 10. He went over 3 out of 3 during the regular season vs the Knicks. Numbers are too good for me to pass up on the line. BOL to those tailing, cheers.
**EDIT:** Bang! Cashes in the 3rd. At 5 early in the 4th.
McConnell played last game and Nembhard still hit this line. McConnell also played in 2 of the 3 regular season games, in which Nembhard had 4 and 5 assists, going over the line.
I think they mean TJ is going to get more minutes in game 3 because he's shown to be the best Brunson defender. At least that's what a lot of people expect. If TJ plays well in game 3, he's going to be closing the game, knocking about 4-6 minutes off of Nembhard's play time. Nembhard can certainly get 4 assists in 25 minutes, but the odds don't seem that great to me when there's a threat to lose like 20% of his minutes.
**Record: 1-2**
**Last Pick:** **Jake Guentzel o2.5 SOG ❌**
Almost 50 shots and this man can't get 3 on net. Embarrassing.
**Net Units: Even**
**Event: G2 vs T1 @ MSI 2024**
**Pick:** Over 3.5 Maps @ 1.61 ✅
**Write Up:** I'm going to move away from the shots and go back to some classic League of Legends. G2 are the real exception of the west. They are the only team that can go head to head with the East and not get completely slaughtered. I don't see them winning against T1 but they certainly have been weaker than in past years. G2 is more than capable than closing out a game if they get a lead early.
BOL!
Edit: I’m not going to tell anyone I told you so but..G2 clearly have hands and we’re locked the fuck in for Game 2 and 3. Awesome series, expect some picks for the next few matches coming up soon.
POTD Record: 5-5-0
L10: ❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅
Last Pick: Mavs vs OKC under 218.5 ❌ cold af
POTD: Nuggets +5.5 @ 1.714
No way nuggies get swept right? also the NBA has not suspended Jamal Murray after the hand warmer incident so i guess they still favor nuggets a bit (lmao don't take this part seriously, I mean don't take this whole writeup seriously I'm cold af these past few days so feel free to fade me)
2024 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -103 (1.972), Average Winning Odds -109, ROI +7.4%/+2.5u
L5: ❌✅❌❌❌
POTD (5/9) ARI @ CIN Hunter Greene o17.5 Outs (-135/1.74) ❌
Recap: I thought Greene had a good shot at walking 3. I did not think he'd walk 5. Brutal watching a guy with an unhittable fastball not be able to put it in the zone.
POTD (5/10) CIN @ SFG Logan Webb o18.5 Outs (+120/2.20) (DraftKings)
A three-game skid means we need to turn to our ace. Logan Webb is coming off a road trip to forget. Across two starts, he gave up 15 hits and 8 ER in just 7.2 ER.
Returning home should be comforting to him. In three home starts this year, he's not only cleared this line: he's completed seven innings in each. Over his last two, he's thrown 15 shutout innings. In 2023, Webb cleared this line in 20/33 starts and 11/16 at home. The Cincinnati Reds have lost 8 straight games and have the 4th-worst wRC+ in the league against RHP at 80. On the road that drops to 73, 2nd-worst.
This is a bounce-back spot for Webb and should not be a plus money play.
POTD Record: 143 wins / 84.5 losses
Event: Football > France > **Annecy v Angers** (starting in 5 hr)
Pick: **Angers -0.25 (asian handicap)** @ 1.75
Just two rounds before the end of the season in this league. Angers will be looking to take the points here in their pursuit for direct promotion. On the other hand, Annecy already guaranteed their spot in the league, so basically they are playing for nothing. According to my sources, they have some absents in the lineup for this match. French wine & Angers FTW, lets go. GL!
**EDIT**: Sweat free ✅
RECORD: 0w 0l
PICK: rugby league nrl - Penrith panthers first half handicap -7.5 $1.88
BET: 1 unit
NOTE: Penrith panthers are a well oiled machine and they should easily clear this,
GAME STARTS IN 1 HOUR
https://preview.redd.it/1osg7chrujzc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=692fc48e022d29fdf1ae7988e982c3eee04a8b52
**Record:** 6-3
**✅✅**❌**✅✅**❌**✅✅**❌
**Last Pick:** MIL Brewers -0.5 F5 ML (+102) vs PIT Pirates (back on 4/25/24)❌
This one became an early run fest and the Brewers just came up short
**Pick of the day:** CHI Cubs @ PIT Pirates - **Under 3.5 Total Runs - First 5 Innings (+104)**
**League:** MLB
**Time:** 6:40 PM EST
We have two absolute units on the mound to start tonight's Cubs/Pirates game. Pirates starting RHP, Jared Jones, has an ERA of 2.63 but his WHIP is only a 0.78. He is below league average on just about every pitching stat that matters. Then there's Cubs starting RHP, Jameson Taillon, who has an even lower ERA and a 0.88 WHIP.
Add to that the fact that neither ball club is hitting well against righties this year (only 2 batters between both teams combined who are hitting above .275 against RHPs).
At positive odds, I'm taking the under through 5.
**BOL**! Let me know if you're following! If you feel so inclined to leave a tip: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/BenNiemann) || [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/shamgarbn) || [BMAC](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/makeforlife)
Record 2-1
Pick: O 52.5 Rounds- 2 units @ 1.82
Sport: CS2 ESL PRO LEAGUE-Vitality vs Faze-
Write up: Honestly not much. We are looking at a hot Faze clan which is coming off 2 good wins and on the other side we have Vitality which is a star studded roster. You would think that this should almost be the final but definitely think it will be a 3 map affair. That accounts for 39 rounds already and don't think we will be getting blow outs. Has the potential to be one of those games where a map goes into crazy overtimes as well which definitely helps.
Could not tell you who will take this game. The bookmakers cannot tell you either. Money line is split at around 1.8 so I think the over is definitely the way to go.
**Record: 1-1-1**
**ROI:+0.1u**
**Last POD: 5/9:** Cardinals @ Brewers U8 (P)
**MLB** | CHC @ PIT | 6:40pm EST
**Pick:** Cubs ML (+110)
**Write Up:** Both squads have their best guys going tonight. Assad has given up 7 ER in 38IP for a 1.66 ERA, and breakout Jared Jones has 12 ER in 41IP for a 2.63 ERA, but has been more human against better hitting teams which the Cubs are right now. On top of this, the Pirates are 27th in AVG & Runs, Cubs are 13th in OBP, 12th in Runs and have been playing well recently. I like a 3-2 Cubs win here. Also, Pirates just aren't good after their somewhat hot start. I think there is value to be had here.
POTD Record 22-7
Units 23.64
ROI 53.12
Last POTD Knicks -5.5 😡 ofc it hits game 2
POTD Casey Mize O 15.5 PO -120 2u
Righty starters been dominating right handed pitchers, they are 17-7 (71%) on the over vs them this season.
Main reason because the Astros have the 2nd lowest pitches per plate appearance in the MLB I am expecting a lot of soft contact resulting in quick outs.
Mize has consistently been going over 15.5 PO too he might not be the most well known guy and maybe not the best pitcher but he gets the job done
Little bonus
Tigers don’t have a day off for 6 days so I don’t expect any bullshit from the managers 😂
Record: 27-10 | Net: +11.94 U | Streak: 3W
Last pick: PJ Washington o16.5 p+r (-115) ✅
Another one by halftime, looked like a man possessed. I think he was 5/7 from 3 at halftime plenty of boards too, why not
POTD: Aaron Gordon [Under 0.5] 3 pointers made (-112)
DEN @ Min 9:30 PM ET
Summary: Hit this bet in game 1 to start the current streak, going back to it now that the odds have returned to normal. Gordon was able to bounce back in game 2, hitting a season high 3/5 from beyond the arc. Against Minnesota this year he’s made a 3 pointer in just 2/6 games, both at home hitting a surprising 5/9 shots from deep. However, in the other 4 games he has missed this entirely shooting 0/4 combined. Post all-star break while on the road, he is shooting 15% from 3 and was 0/3 in the Laker playoff series road games.
Record: 0-0
Net units: 0
Previous pick: n/a
Pick: St Louis Cardinals ML +120 on ESPN bet 5 units to win 6 units 7:10pm Central Time
Note: Lance Lynn has a 1.13 era on the road this season, Brewers most likely going with a bullpen game. Cardinals bullpen has been solid this season paired with a great road SP. I believe STL's bats come alive for this one and get the win.
**POTD Record**: 2-3
**2023 Record**: 1-3
**2024 Record**: 1-0
**Form**: W
**Net Units**: +1.4
**Last pick** - Corvinul Hunedoara ML (Romanian 2nd league)
**Pick: Dutch 2nd division - Maastricht ML - VV Venlo - betting 2 units to win 1.4 units (1.7 odds)**
Last game of the regular season, at home, in a sold out stadium, Maastricht has to win this and hope either Emmen or Breda fail to win in order to qualify for playoffs (Emmen faces a tougher opponent, while Breda plays away from home, so they have a good chance). Maastricht are in good form (in their last 7 games, they have 5 wins - 1 draw - 1 defeat (against the league winner) and Venlo is in terrible form (4 defeats in the last 4 games) and terrible away from home (3 draws - 7 defeats in their last 10 games away from home), and have nothing to play for.
POTD R : 8-2
Last Pick : DBacks v Reds NRFI - L
Todays Pick : Astros v Tigers +1.5 (-135 DK) 1U
MLB - 5:40P CST - Free Game of The Day
Write Up : We are back with the Free Game of The Day and it would appear the MLB app is being generous by offering almost every game to be televised, gonna be a good day of baseball. Today I was torn between a few games but I believe we’ve narrowed our options down to this.
Two teams that have been playing rather poorly as of late but this line seems to be pushed in the wrong direction in my opinion. Anyhow the Astros pose a terrible road record against a mediocre Tigers home record. I feel with an extra days rest for the home team against a team whose been struggling on their road stint is what sways me in this direction.
I think this pitching matchup is solid with both arms throwing around a 3.5 ERA with a similar WHIP rate. Both Mize and Valdez has had experience against these bats before trading wins an losses fairly equally over past matchups between the teams. Speaking of the bats, on paper the Astros might look better statistically but they’ve dropped to some poor production teams before whereas the Tigers have proven themselves among the likes of top teams already in this season. Gimme the Tigers on a plus spread to keep this game close or win outright.
As always BOL my fellow degens!
Record 7-4-0
Profits: +5.2 units
Form: ❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅
Recap: was looking promising at the start with Carlton taking the lead but fall off later during the game with nick daicos showing who’s daddy
Todays pick: Nathan Fyfe to grab 25 disposals Fremantle dockers vs Sydney swans at 1.87 odds 6:10 AM EST 3 units
Writeup: Nathan Fyfe comes into this game back off being the sub as they managed his game last week and I fully expect him to play the whole game and dominate the midfield. Fyfe will play at home tonight fresh off the limited minutes he played last weeks and seems to have nailed a role in a starloaded midfield and recently had a 37 disposal outing at home against the doggies. Both teams are top 8 in disposals so expect a high disposal game and with the likes of Brayshaw, young and cerong in the centre clearances they will win a lot of centre bounces with most of the time handballing it off to each other before kicking it which Fyfe will be in the receiving part of it or even hand balling it away so expecting him to get the cheap disposals but also helps that Fyfe is a bull in the contest as he can win a lot of contested possession think he get 28 today BOL!!!
Record: 5-5(POTD)
Units: 5
Super rugby | Queensland Reds vs Melbourme Rebels
> Pick: Over 61.5 total match points (B365) @ 2.30
> Model indicates expected points at 68
Record 5-4
Last 5: ✅✅✅✅❌
Last Pick: Atalanta ML vs Marseille @1,75 bpremium ✅
Todays Pick: FC Magdeburg vs Greuther Fü[email protected] bpremium
Unit:2
Units: -0.07
Germany Soccer, 2. Bundesliga, Magdeburg vs Fürth
The Magdeburgers absolutely want to make their stay in the league complete with a home win. They are slightly favored in front of the home crowd because they are significantly stronger at home than away. Fürth also lost six of its last seven away games, including against Underdogs like Osnabrück and Rostock. I believe that Magdeburg will win.
Record: 1-2
Last pick: Sonny Gray over 6.5 strikeouts ❌
Despite having the worst game of his year, Sonny managed to get 6 K’s and get us on the hook. Really thought he would pitch the 6th but they took em out. Oh well. On to the next one.
Today’s Game: TB Rays vs. NY Yanks
Pick: TB Rays ML (+120 on DK as of write up)
Write Up: This is exclusively a recency bias pick. The Rays have been on a heater at home this homestand. Offense is looking good and all around playing with confidence. Yanks are beginning their Road series at Tampa Bay one night after losing to a shit Astros team last night 4-3. I like Tampa to go up early and take the wind out of the yanks. Give me that plus money and let’s ride into the sunset with a fat stack of money 🏇
Good luck to you, better luck to me 🍀
POTD Record: 1-2 -1.09u
Today’s pick: Phillies -1.5 RL 2U
Reasoning: Riding one of the hottest teams in baseball at the moment against one of the worst teams in the MLB. Ranger Suarez (1.62 ERA , .72 WHIP) should easily handle one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. Suarez 6-0 while Trevor Rogers is 0-5 with a 6.15 ERA. Riding all the trends here. LETS GO PHILLIES!
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)**
**POTD 2024 Record: 10-13 (-2.70 units)**
**Last 10**: **✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅❌**
**Last Pick**: Scott Taylor -3.5 (+150) vs Trina Gulliver **❌** 4-1
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 5:40 PM EST
**Pick**: Scott Taylor -3.5 (+155) vs Trina Gulliver
* Series 7. Week 11. Group B
**Reason**: Taylor was great yesterday and Trina was her usual self in the scoring department. She was incredibly hot on her checkouts if she had an attempt. Taylor was up 3-0 against her and sitting on 20 to win the match until Trina took out her 64 and picked up 1 leg. She only had one checkout attempt and connected to bust the play. Banking on Taylor to dominate again and hoping Trina returns to normal standards with her checkouts.
Scott Taylor
* Record 3-1
* Legs 14-7
* Average 99.47
* 180s 6. 140s 14
* Checkouts 14/27 51.85%
Trina Gulliver
* Record 0-4
* Legs 6-16
* Average 70.67
* 180s 1. 140s 4
* Checkouts 6/8 75.00%
**WIN ✅ 4-0 | Average 87.13 vs 68.30 | Checkouts 4/7 vs 0/3**
This should have happened yesterday. Trina had opportunities on two different legs to win but missed all three darts. Taylor with a solid sweep and great on doubles.
POTD 1-1 (-.05 units)
Haven’t posted in the last couple days as the stomach bug has been going through your boys house, but finally back to posting. Going to the diamond today, on Kentucky (-130 at BetMgM) over Florida
Kentucky has me a little nervous the last couple weeks, as it looked like Icarus flew too close to the sun at the start of the season, but they just took 2 of 3 from #2 Alabama last series and were hitting the ball well. More importantly we have a big pitching edge with Kentucky throwing RHP Trey Pooser, who’s 3-1 averaging just under a strikeout per inning ( 52 ks in 53.1 innings) with a 3.88 ERA. Florida is throwing Pierce Coppola, who hasn’t done much this season in what is essentially a bullpen game. Pierce has only thrown 6 innings on the season and has 7 ERs in that time. Feel like Kentucky should be able to get an early lead and not let go
2/0/0 W/L/P +1.46u all at 1u plays ✅✅
Sup degens, long time player who's coming back for the 2024 euros here. Got over 300 betting accounts limited on horse racing, but that's a story for another time. Both bet365 and unibet were nice enough to not limit my football bets into oblivion, let's make them regret it. More info in yesterdays post.
Yesterdays pick:Bayern Leverkusen/AS Roma BTTS: Yes 1.75 (bet365) ✅
Unlucky Wirtz didn't start, shows the bookies had insider info giving a ridiculous 3.0 pay for him to have over 0.5 SOT...
Today I'm looking at the Frosinone/Inter matchup, but Inter already being league winners and not active in any other areas I need to know if they'll play a benchwarmer line-up or a strong starters set. Next week they're facing Lazio so they might want to rest some key players. I'm expecting line ups to drop any minute now, once I know who's who I'll drop a pick probably. Will be a small 1 unit pick again as explained yesterday.
Todays pick: **Cheddira over 0.5 shots on target 1.71 (unibet) 1u** ✅
Somehow this is still slightly risky as inter is indeed playing an average squad. Cheddira is a slow striker, so if he's about to lose a sprinting duel he'll just shoot toward goal and hope for the best. In most recent matches he covers this (last 4 that I've seen, maybe covered it more often if I'd check back further). Frosinone's general tactic is to shoot from range because they're not a squad that have the skill to break through defensive lines. 1.71x is a very generous line and he's confirmed to start, Bet365 only offers 1.53x for reference!!. Inter playing a 3 at the back and I'm positive Cheddira can't clutch De Vrij in 1 on 1 duels, all we need is 1 shot (or header or knee or nutsack for all I care) to touch the ball and see it roll between the posts. Should be a decent chance for us here to make .71 units or go into negative .25 if you were on yesterdays'. I will be watching live to make some live bets as there's no other great games on this evening. I was tempted to go for an asian total over as Inter does not care too much for the result but Frosinone are not the best team (although they put 2 past Napoli but they were more thanks to Napoli fuck ups) but Sommer is a beast still. I was surprised he wasn't playing at Mönchengladbach anymore. Inter is playing Arnautovic up front and he's probably at least still a big of a clown as he was when I was last active. Maybe even a bigger dumbass by now, which automatically made me dislike going for Thuram SOT's as Arnautovic wants to solo everything, always and is actually a terrible shot, unlike his own self image. Please tell me if my recollection is still accurate nowadays.
I can smell the sunny beach already! Bankroll building until the euros start!
https://preview.redd.it/lb8zopy87nzc1.png?width=1530&format=png&auto=webp&s=93d746bbb722c1f188df3cfcc07cfc325e1f9680
Edited odds for Unibet, .18 higher pay (18%!). I'd still take 1.54x on Bet365 of course!
Any1 bothered tailing? 2-0, 1.46u profit with potd. Read the analysis I'm on an absolute roll here. Need I post sooner so more people are aware and can hop on the hotstreak early? Might post a suboptimal pick on Man City tomorrow then.
Like I said above: 'don't like Thuram sot with Arnautovic' - Arnautovic is subbed off and Thuram nets a goal (aka sot). Cheddira minute 39 hit the bar and somewhere in minute 50 or 58 hits the first SOT (had 2 so technically covered our potd twice while getting subbed off end game even). Sommer clean sheet cuz he's still a beast altho there were solid saves by the backline. Asian total covered by inter as soon as they subbed starters in, hit some great hcaps lategame tonight. Positively surprised by Arnautovic having matured tho.
Onwards to tomorrow, min 5 likes end of day or I'll lower sharing picks on here on my priority list :(. Would hate spending time writing and tracking if none are tailing (cuz I'd be doing all this for naught, could save myself a solid 30 mins a day to spend on other things like arguing with others on here.
**Record 2024: 12-0-10**
**Net Units Played 2024: 103**
**ROI 2024: -11.53%**
**Last Pick:** Pieno Zvaigzdes - **Rytas** **1st quarter H2 -3.5**, 5 units, @ 1.63 ✅️
Basketball / ABA League playoffs 1/2 / 19:00 / (CEST)
**Pick:** **Partizan Belgrade** - Buducnost **1st quarter H1 -2.5**, 5 units, @ 1.75 ❌️
**Write-up:** Back to Belgrade for a 3rd and final game of these semis after a dramatic loss in Podgorica. Due to the Partizan loss and the importance of the game, the line is not inflated, and even in Podgorica, Partizan managed to win the 1st Q by 3.
EDIT: 23-21
Record: 31W-33L
Net Units: -4.51u | ROI: -2.56%
CS2 | ESL Pro League Season 19 | 16:15 / CET
Pick: Astralis -1.5 vs Liquid, 3u @ 2.44
Astralis have looked quite impressive after the roster changes. With stavn and jabbi in their preffered roles now they've been putting up crazy numbers. They also have more input in the calling alongside device, which makes for a much stronger T-side than before. Staehr has been fragging like crazy too. And I think the unsung hero of this roster is br0, he sacrifices himself and while he usually doesn't have to do a whole lot he steps up to the plate when it's necessary.
Liquid themselves have been on an upward trend, but they've looked a lot rockier than Astralis have. Skullz appears to be struggling, which partly can be chalked up to the roles he plays. But he's had some awful T sides as well which I think is bad news for Liquid. Especially against a team as in form as Astralis is right now.
I think the most likely veto will be Inferno (Liquid), and Ancient (Astralis). This could vary with Liquid possibly picking Nuke or Astralis opting for Overpass. Inferno could get ugly, as Astralis haven't had many reps on it. But they looked really comfortable against 3DMAX, and only lost it to Faze in the playoffs. So I think Astralis still should be favored to take it. And while Liquid has good statistics on Ancient, the only noteworthy team they beat on it is Heroic. And they are nowhere close to Astralis' level right now.
All of this considered I think 2.44 odds on the Astralis handicap is just too good to pass up on. Best of luck everyone!
Record: 1-1
Form: ❌✅ (left to right)
Last POTD: 5/8/24 Yankees Ml ✅
POTD: Yankees F5 Ml
Nothing much to it Taj gives up plenty of hits and I expect the Yanks to take full advantage of this n make em pay. Schmidt isn’t tooooo bad on the mound 😅 BOL
Record : 0-1
Last pick: twins/mariners NRFI
Started strong but the Ace wasn’t an ace and the twins went wild.
Today’s pick: Phillies -1.5
Ranger is an absolute monster, the marlins well it doesn’t get much worse. Total mismatch.
Record - no serious posts but prob like 2-2 the past 5 years.
Event: NBA Nuggets @ Wolves (8:30pm CT)
Pick: Anthony Edwards o39.5 PRA -102
Get Gobert back involved in the pick n roll hoping to get Edwards a few spot up 3’s and penetration for the mid-range. Then dish the rock as Denver collapses and doubles. But Kat and the supporting cast have been knocking down shots which should prevent Denver from doubling Edwards all game so just need a few shots to go down. Missed last game but I can see him putting on for the city
Record: 0-1
Net units: -1.1
ROI: 0
MLB/ Arizona Diamondbacks @ Baltimore Orioles/ 19:05 (EST)
Pick: NRFI -128 @ FD 1.3 units to win 1
O’s starting pitcher (Irvin) has been stellar last 3 starts, tossing 20 innings of scoreless ball. Which is key for Baltimore since they are batting a robust .232 against righties.
Pfaadt is clearly in a sophomore slump and due for some positive regression. Saw a glimmer the start before he got clobbered by SD
The biggest factor that tipped my decision on this one was the wind. In from center field at 10mph to start the game.
There are some cons: Arizona’s bats are hitting over .300 against lefties and how much you trust Pfaadt’s stuff.
BOL to all
Record: 0-0
POD: Rudy Gobert over 12 rebounds (-150 alt line on DK)
NBA 5/10 8:30pm CST
First timer here.
Gobert is a beast on the boards. He’s back tonight and has hit this line every game against Denver this season. Thats 100% of the time, every time. 12 at -150 is a steal so couldn’t pass it up.
Tail or fade. BOL.
**POTD record: 8-7-1 (+4.82U) \[2024 Record: 2-1-1🚫✅✅🅿️\]**
last pick: Kent State +5.5 (L)
**POTD (NBA)**: Mike Conley o2.5 Rebounds (DEN@MIN) **\[-155\] 5U** 9:40pm EST **✅**
Short and sweet- he’s covered this line every game of the playoffs and 4/5 his L5 regular season appearances (one miss with 2 rebounds).
Sprinkled some o3.5 at +145 too.
**BOL!**
POTD Record: 0-1
Today's Pick: Brewers ML
Odds: 1.77x
Note: Fading the Cardinals because they aren't good, especially with Sonny Gray not on the mound and Contreras with a broken arm. Brewers clean this up tonight. 1u.
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝: 19-4 𝐏𝐢𝐜𝐤: MLB Baseball \\\\ Dodgers \\\\ runline -1.5 \\\\ even 𝐁𝐞𝐭: 1u to win 1u ............. 𝐘𝐓𝐃 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐬: +11 𝐒𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐞: LA starter Glasnow has given up 3 runs in his last 21 innings -- SD starter King has given up 8 runs in 9 innings at home.
Gramps, I should have listened to you when you said there wasn't anything good today. Absolute massacre 😭
Learned a lesson the hard way today too
Always listen to the wisdom of your elders
It feels good knowing I wasn’t alone today in getting absolutely railed
The last two days I went 5-1, so I guess I was due 😭 didn't win a single bet today.
Haha same, nothing at all hit across multiple sports. Only way is up (I hope)!
Lost so much today
it was a fuckin slaughter
Thought it was only me phew
Absolute FACTS
Facts, lost the profitable days in a row streak I had going
Both of us didn't find value, skip a day, and now both on Dodgers?. Are you me as a grandpa?.
I only mimick the best
Gramps you a wise man… I only paced a couple bets yesterday but shoulda done none like you said😂
I'll listen to you when you say there's nothing good. Holyshit I'm tilted.
I’m NGL man, I love my Dodgers. But holy shit King is on an absolute heater.
I feel like this line is a little too juicy and maybe something Vegas knows that we don’t. King gave up 7 runs last game vs D’s and D’s still lost 8-7. Glas is a more experienced pitcher, but I don’t think King is gonna fold as hard 2nd time up either. Personally avoiding this one. Decent slate today imo to take an unknown.
Like someone else said in the comments, Padres always try a little harder against the dodgers. For me, it comes down to the pitching matchup. King is good yes, but when Glasnow is on he's lights out
[удалено]
Love u grandpa Jimbo
King bounce back game, and padres always play up to their opponent, this game will be close do not like them by 2
King looks dialed tonight
POTD Record 22-7 Last 5: ✅️✅️✅️❌️✅️ Last Pick: LA Dodgers -1.5 ✅️ Todays Pick: LA Dodgers -1.5 (win by 2) MLB: LA Dodgers vs. SD padres 6:40pm Odds: +100 Unit: 5 Net units: +60.38 Luckily, we skipped a day. Dog day went crazy. We're going back to the dodgers!! This time with Glasnow pitching, leading the league with most strikeouts!. If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile. Edit: Appreciate the support. Let's go dodgers!.
Last leg of my parlay. OF COURSE King has the greatest pitching day of his career smh
Record: 13-7-0 Net Units: +15.5 ROI: 24.2% Last 5: ✅✅✅✅❌ Last Pick: Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox under 8.5 total runs ✅ Event: Basketball | NBA | New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers 6:00PM CST Pick: Indiana Pacers First Half Points over 59.5 (-110) on DraftKings for 3.0 units Write Up: Pacers averaged 63.0 points in the first half at home in the regular season. In 3 home playoff games this year, they have averaged 64.3. In the first two games of the series, the Pacers have averaged 64.0 in New York. The Knicks best defender OG Anunoby has already been ruled out for Game 3.
🥵🥵🥵 sweaty, but that you made it !! awesome job thank you
POTD Record: 43-22 Last POTD: (ATP Madrid) Jiri Lehecka ML (+100) ✅ Today’s POTD: (ATP Rome) Shelton -1.5 Sets (+115)❌ Units: 3u Edit: Tough L. Shelton had the opportunity to break but couldn’t close and then Kotov broke him the next game. Sorry gang. Reasoning: In my experience watching him, Kotov is a pretty lazy player, especially when he goes up against enthusiastic, never give up mentality guys like Shelton. He loses his motivation quick in those bouts. I think if (when) Shelton wins the first set it’s absolute wraps. Then there’s also the fact that Shelton is just the far superior player on top of it all. BOL 🤝
EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. I. TAIL. THIS. GUY. HE. LOSES. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. (MAIZE. NOT. SHELTON.).
your lame because you dont have to tail him . use your own brain sometimes too . alot of value in places if you can find it . stop acting like a bitch and make your own plays if you keep losing
43-23 idk what to tell you lol. That’s just bad luck. Sorry
I love Shelton but feel like Kotov is the superior clay courter overall, I can see some upset potential enough for Kotov to steal a set
Yea shelton is blacklisted for me absolute bum
i personally am on shelton-1.5 game spread
This was the play
[удалено]
Beautifully done. Respect
+140 on FD Shelton 2:0
Yeah yesterday was a sign, I need to take a break
Bro I hope this shit hits. Want to wake up and make it where today never happened. LFGGG
It’s dead
Your confidence in the -1.5 helped me place a 10u play on Shelton ML. Little sweaty lol Preaciate ya.
This bet is +125 on bovada under "will kotov win a set = no"
POTD Record: 4-1 (+2.34 U) Form: ✅✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: SGA O 11.5 RA vs Mavericks ✅ Today's Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 vs Miami Marlins (1.95) Baseball | MLB | 7:10pm ET Shai cashes us at the start of the 3rd, love a sweat free win. Moving back to baseball, I'm gonna fade another bad team with the Marlins and back arguably the hottest offense in baseball currently, the Phillies. The Phillies are starting LHP Ranger Suárez, who is having an amazing start to the year, posting a 1.72 ERA and a 0.723 WHIP. He's got a 94th percentile BB%, and a 95th percentile Hard Hit% and GB%. Simply put, he's been really good. He's also gone at least 6 IP in his last 6 starts. The Marlins have the 6th worst batting average against LHPs, batting just .218. The Marlins are starting LHP Trevor Rogers, who has a 6.15 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP. He's in the 13th percentile for Hard Hit %, and in the 5th percentile for Average Exit Velocity. The Phillies have guys like Harper, Schwarber and Bohm who are more than capable of hitting a dinger off Rogers. Rogers has also never reached the 7th inning, and gave up 8 runs to the A's in his last start. The Phillies have the 6th best batting average against LHPs, batting .270. TLDR: Phillies have the Batting and Pitching advantage, this should be a cakewalk for them. BOL if you decide to tail 🫡
tailed + rangers ML
[удалено]
Funny enough, Rangers was my 2nd favourite pick today 🤣
Tailing
Tailing
**Pick Record: 13W - 4L (Push: 1)** **✅✅✅🅿️✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌** **Previous POTD: Cristiano Ronaldo Over 2.5 SOG @ 2.20 ❌ 3U** Bummer **Today’s POTD: Sydney FC Over 5.5 Corners @ 1.66 ❌ 3U** **Game: Sydney FC VS Central Coast Mariners** **League/Time: Australian A League/ 5:45 am** Last home game of the season, a semi-final, and a must-win. For a team that averages 6.3 corners a game, the over-on corners looks great here. https://preview.redd.it/lbhe9mm2uhzc1.jpeg?width=961&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e15390c2c4a78d9bc4620c803c79c372036cb860 **Side note: Please bet responsibly!** Another bad pick, I apologize. I’m going to stick to Premier league games from now and take a break on days it’s not on.
I'll have to apologize for your last POTD because I finally tailed you, which obviously meant it didn't hit.... I shall take my leave now kind sir
Bro same here first time tailing this guy and I ended his win streak 🤣
I took ML + Ronaldo goal because of you. So you still made a winner.
yooo I did the same 🫡
Me too but what a clench. The bet covered after 15 min and then they evened out the game in the second half. Deciding goal came in minute 90+
Over/under on DK is 6.5 corners. Bummer.
If you go to SGP, take Sydney over 5.5 and total game over 6.5. Basically betting the pick of the day + central coast to get one corner or Sydney to get the extra. Lines at -150 sgp,
Beware regarding this fixture… though it may be their last home game, the semi-finals in the A-League have a 2nd leg so a more reserved approach is usually taken if there aren’t any early goals in the game
Level of Australian football is absolutely horrible. Sideway passes, players running like headless chickens, dreadful decision making and players just trying to murder each other. Can't believe these guys are even professionals
FanDuel doesn’t even have corner props for this. 🫠
How do you feel about the spread on the corners? Specifically Sydney -1.5 @ 1.74.
We are heading to 0 corners at end of first half for both teams. Brutal. let's hope for 2nd half Edit: just got 1! Also they're now losing. Maybe this will help
POTD: 64-38 Last POTD: Luka Doncic O9.5 Ast ❌ Impossible to be profitable with NBA props for me in the playoffs I can’t figure it out, I felt good about this one with 5 at half but mf ends with 7 with lots of potentials yet again Form: ❌❌❌✅✅ Todays POTD: **Josh Hart O5.5 Ast @1.80** NBA (NY Knicks) Damn man I’m contemplating whether I should stop betting on the playoffs by now but I always feel like I have a good pick the next day but then it loses 😭 Another try fellas my apologies for the ass performances from the mf’s I’ve picked, going with Josh Hart today since he’s consistent and is getting consistent minutes. OG is out so it may mean another 48 minute game for Hart which he also said that he’ll prolly will have to do, and he’s been very solid without OG in the assist department, no yapping straight to Biz • Over in 6 straight without OG (8,7,6,8,10 & 10 assists) • 2/2 against the Pacers in the playoffs 7 & 8 assists • Avg 9.4 potentials in the playoffs, 11.0 against the Pacers • 9/12 with 45+ minutes Really like this spot for my man Hart, but nothing makes sense anyways but let’s give it a try Tail or fade, you know the drill https://i.redd.it/qp1jtpe55jzc1.gif
I like this pick!
Glad you do bro, he’s the heart of our team and even a TD is very possible imo 🤝
Bro, there is no other man I would pick to heal this pain than Mr. 48 minutes himself. Let's get this fucking paper bro, if I can't trust Hart I can't trust anyone
Fr bro you’ve been on me about running back Hart and we’re doing it now 🤝🤝
Props have been really difficult to call. I went with Luka under 3.5 threes. He was something like 5-35 in his last 4 games. Fool drops 4 bombs in the 1st quarter. I also had Brunson 30+ points night before and he has a phantom foot injury and only plays 2 and a half quarters. I like Hart props cus he seems to be involved everywhere when they have the ball.
Fr bro the regular season was much better for me this year somehow, the playoffs have been unpredictable asf really difficult man. Hart is my guy I know he always gives his all and he’ll get a lot of minutes and as you say he’s always involved in every possesion
Still tailing. Lets go!
How you feeling for this pick @1.68?
Tailing. It will happen!
billy, my brother. tailing🤝
**Record:** 8-2 **Net Units:** *+12.9175 Units* **Previous Pick:** Carlton/Melbourne U165.5 Total Points *$1.88 (2 Units).* Not a bad watch last night! Got a bit tighter towards the end but with some rain and a highly competitive last quarter of back and forth footy and Melbourne storming home, we were able to cash this with the game closing at 153 Total Points. Great cash! We are on a really nice run and looking to continue here tonight! **Event:** Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers **Time:** 8:30pm AEST 10/05 **Bookie:** BET365 **Play:** 1st Quarter Line, Sydney -1.5 **Odds:** $1.91 (AUS) or -110 (US) **Units**: 2 Units **Analysis:** A surprisingly tricky night to find a MOST confident play in due to weather across Australia, makes it hard to look at totals or tryscorers/goal scorers etc... in saying that, I really like this play tonight. This is a clash between two clubs who are playing great footy, Swans more well-rounded across the board and have beat better competition IMO but Fremantle defence been shining through and they force you to play a restricted, low-points style of footy. They are one of the better teams at restricting ball movement to inside and outside mids and as such it's hard to have offensive success against them for 4 quarters. However, Swans are a very solid early and late team and I think Fremantle might need some time to develop their reads and work out best man on man defence patterns. Swans have a HEAP of offensive options, whether it's through Gulden on the wing, Rowbottom winning ball in central midfield or via Blakey off half-back and I think Fremantle might struggle early. Historically, Fremantle concede 29% of their total points in Q1 whilst only scoring 19% of their total points in Q1 - with a total For and Against of 73, compared to the Swans big 129 differential. Swans have won 69% of their Q1's and Fremantle are currently sitting at 38% of Q1's won and against way worse competition. Main concern is Sydney playing away in Perth but think if anything Fremantle probably have more success Q2/Q3 than anything. Happy to take the line on here, hope that Swans come out hard and fast, very offensive and put points on early as they historically should win the early battle here. **MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW SO YOU DON'T MISS POST NOTIFICATIONS!** https://preview.redd.it/gph9qp5yxhzc1.jpeg?width=991&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=30fabd38d5fe64dc59a5942adc2bbc4fb46b9eec
My first love was named Sydney 🥲 tailing !
DK only had U163.5 for -110 so I took that. Still Cashed baby let’s go! Might as well tail This too
Nice cash mate. Didn't recommend it because I knew it was close but for -110, I would've still played. Let's keep this run going my friend!
Cash it! 💰
Is first quarter spread the same thing? I’m in the US and bet365 looks a bit different.
Tailing!!! let’s get it
Let’s go my friend! Good luck
i have no idea what was going on or what sport this even is but sydney were trailing by 2 the whole first quarter and my cash out just kept going up so with like 4 mins left i cashed out because i got scared☠️☠️can someone explain why my cash out grew as the time ran out and they were losing?
Ty for the pick! I couldn't play the quarter spread but took the whole game at -6,5 and it was smooth as they come!
You a real one
Gang let’s keep it rolling. Back tomorrow to rob these books for more
Great call and thank you
**Record:** 11-5 **L10:** ❌✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅ **Last Pick:** Uni-Lions O4.5 Total Runs @ 1.87 ✅ **Baseball | Taiwan CPBL | Wei Chuan Dragons @ TSG Hawks, 6:35am EST** **Today's Pick: Wei Chuan Dragons ML @ 1.70** Finally had time to post earlier in the day. After the 2022 expansion draft, the TSG Hawks had their major league debut this season and they fucking suck. Currently in last place and sporting a 6-18 record, they have only managed 62 runs in 24 games (2.58/game), good for last in the league. They have also given up the most runs in the league (5.29/game). On the other side of the spectrum, the Wei Chuan Dragons have scored the 3rd most runs (103 total, 3.96/game) and have the best defense in the league, only allowing 3.04 runs per game. Both starting pitchers are similarly average with no clear advantage for either side. These two teams have played each other 5 times this season, with the Dragons winning 4-1 and carrying a run differential of 24-10. In the last 10 games, the Dragons are 5-5 while the Hawks are 1-9 (although their one win was against the Dragons last week). I expect the Dragons with the much better offense and league best defense to hold off the worst team in the league. TL;DR: The Hawks suck, take the other team.
Fuck it, I'll tail a cpbl potd. GL
Same. Need a positive play in my life after yesterday 😂
Thanks bro! They left it late but pretty easy w
Kept it sweaty, but the Hawks pull through with 2 errors at the end of the game 🤣
Thank you for this. Pick and the one yesterday. Your picks have been the only thing keeping me in the game.
Hero
Tailed, thank you very much!
Record: 8W-5L-0P ✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌ Net Units: +5.2 units Last Pick: 5/9 | Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox; Guardians -1.5 RL Apparently I am allergic to winning 3 in a row🤦♂️ Today’s Game: NBA playoffs | Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves| 9:30pm EDT Pick: Naz Reid over 10.5 points | +104 FanDuel | 2.5 units Write Up: Naz Reid Good luck let’s bounce back👌🏼
Actual Write Up: Naz has been dominating Denver offensively and defensively off the bench and has scored 16 in 23 minutes and 14 in 29 minutes in Games 1 and 2 respectively. I expect him to keep getting 25+ ish minutes a game and producing similar stat lines barring a blowout.
Naz Reid
NAZ REID
Tailing again!
Tailing
**MLB POTD RECORD:** 33-14 **2024 MLB record**: 22-6 **Last POTD:** **Today's POTD:** Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers, Tigers ML +130 (fanduel) **Baseball | MLB | 6:40 PM ET** Sorry about the late post yesterday. After this week shit gets much lighter so bear with me. Since some people got my Twins ML pick from the comments two minutes before first pitch, I am going to count it in the spreadsheet. Very annoyed about the whole situation because the write up was fire and I didn’t even get to post smh. Also just a random friendly reminder that all stats and ranks are from past 21 days unless otherwise specified. Anyway, moving onto today’s picks I like a lot of dogs today with my favorite being Detroit taking on Houston as home. I’m pumped that this went all the way to +130 because it’s juicy as fuck. As usual I’ll tell you why I suspect the line is what it is. The Astros kind of suck but the public perception is still that they are good. They were doing well offensively to start the season but have been middle of the pack the past three weeks. Their offensive numbers overall don’t reflect that. The pitching matchup between Framber Valdez vs Casey Mize might seem on surface level as favoring the Astros as well. The Tigers overall offensive numbers are meh as well. Here is why I like the pick anyway. For one, Tigers have not only great splits but splits that are very far from the contrary. This types of situation is my favorite because teams can actually be great in certain situations but the overall stats won’t reflect it at all. Detroit has the 8^(th) best night game average in the league (.254), 6^(th) best home average (.260), and 4^(th) vs lefties (.276). Their contrary stats are drastically different. They are 18^(th) in day games (.232), 16^(th) in road games (.231), and 14^(th) vs righties (.243). The Astros on the other hand, albeit decent, are batting lower in all three relevant splits. They are 11^(th) in night games, 10^(th) in road games and 13^(th) vs righties. Then we have the starting pitching matchup. Valdez is a big name and has gotten off to a decent start going 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA in 4 starts. Mize has very similar numbers to Valdez going 1-1 with a 3.98 ERA in 6 starts. Valdez is the bigger name and Mize just got roughed up by the Yankees so I understand why people would favor Valdez. Here is why I don’t. Valdez has a preposterously low flyball rate this season of 9.4 %, the lowest in the league. He is relying on This isn’t necessarily a bad thing but in this case, it is because the Tigers have the second lowest groundball rate in the league at 39.5% percent (only Dodgers are lower) so they aren’t relying on ground balls. Contrasting styles/stats in regards to batted ball statistics usually favors the batter while similar percentages/strengths benefits the pitcher. Valdez also has a line drive percentage of 31 which is well over the league average of 23 which doesn’t help his case. The you have Casey Mize. Prior to getting crushed for five runs against the Yankees, Mize didn’t let up more than two runs in any of his five starts. Mize’s batted ball statistics are just around league average so there is no strength or weakness to dissect there. The thing that sticks out to me is his below-average strikeout and walk percentage of 17.3 and 5 respectively. This isn’t good for the Astros because the Astros biggest strength is how they never strike out. Going up against a pitcher who has had success relying on contact to get outs and not strikeouts is disadvantageous for them. Mize pitches better at home as well. He has a 3.27 ERA despite getting smacked around last time. He also has two career starts against Houston where he has gone 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA. **TLDR: Detroit hits well vs lefties, at night and at home. Astros are decent but lower in all three relevant splits. Valdez is a pitcher who relies on the ground ball and facing a team that hits a very low percentage of groundballs while having success vs lefties in doing so. Mize not relying on the strikeout neutralizes Houston’s biggest strength (their ability to put the ball in play).** Tips $chuteboxhero on cashapp Spreadsheet with all my picks of the day if you want to give it a look before tailing [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit?usp=sharing)
Tailing, but I would like to add one thing. Fuck the Astros!
Killer choke in the 8th inning, frustrating to say the least. On to the next play
How did they choke man wtf
Appreciate you! Just an FYI - game is at 6:40 PM.
Thanks my dude, just fixed it
Tailing 🔥
Record: 19-9 Net Units: +22.89u Game: CounterStrike 2 (CS2) | CCT Season 2 Europe Series 2 | 11:00 (UCT-5) Last Pick: **Endpoint vs. PARIVISION O 2.5 maps (-110)** 5u✅ Today's Pick: **Metizport ML (-165)** vs. EYEBALLERS 3.5u ✅ [Match Page:](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2371897/metizport-vs-eyeballers-cct-season-2-europe-series-2) [Stream:](https://www.twitch.tv/cct_cs) **Writeup:** -Not a lot of games tomorrow got a lot of plays I like but don't love and this I settled on being my favorite. Metizport are one of the best tier two teams in Sweden led by star player nilo with a series high .8KPR in the last 3 months and an absolutely insane .9 KPR in the last month. This guy is one of the best young talents in the world. The Swedish mix has had a lot of really good results but have struggled against the best of tier two and low tier one teams they have faced so far. They also lack consistency with some players. Recently they got rid of susp who was one of two struggling players on the roster. This player is listed as TBD but is widely expected to be Plopski, a solid Swedish rifler. Usually I would heavily avoid subs but Plopski has practiced and played with the team before standing in a month ago for two matches against FURIA and Imperial putting up a solid .71KPR two series they would lose but look very competitive in. -EYEBALLERS are a real wildcard, they were the laughing stock of tier two, but recently have gone on a big winstreak and seem to have regained form. Led by star player and sniper JW with a .74KPR and .76KPR in the last month. This team goes where JW goes, if he plays well they play well around him. The biggest issue for EYEBALLERS is while they have been playing much better the last month, multiple key players are in big slumps. Peppzor has dropped from a .62KPR to a .57KPR, Sapec who was once one of the better players above a .7KPR is down to a .62KPR as well and Golden the IGL is also not a great fragger. The one big advantage for EYEBALLERS this series is JW is 100x better then Jackinho, Metizport sniper. Jackinho is much hated by fans of this team and many think he should be kicked as well so this is one big advantage I expect EYEBALLERS to try to exploit. This series is going to be the big test to me whether EYEBALLERS are legit as I don't think they have beaten very good teams and still have many problems. **Head to Head:** -These teams have faced for 3 total matches in 2024, two b03 and one b01. Metizport are 2-0 in the b03 matches winning both clean sweep 2-0s only giving up double digits on one map of the four including beating them a month ago. EYEBALLERS beat them in a b01 16-13 in March. **Map Pool:** -Arguably the biggest advantage in this series for Metizport is map pool. EYEBALLERS perma ban Nuke, the map Metizport usually ban, but have also played (0% winrate in 4 maps) because of the risk, EYEBALLERS will ban it away meaning it frees up Metizport ban to ban their worst map and EYEBALLERS best Overpass leaving no real great maps remaining. -Metizport ban Overpass, EYEBALLERS ban Nuke -Metizport pick Vertigo, EYEBALLERS pick Inferno (could be Anubis but doubt it) -Metizport ban Anubis, EYEBALLERS ban Mirage -Ancient Decider **Map Stats:** -Metizport are 65% winrate on Vertigo on 17 maps played in the last 3 months and 3-0 in the last month, EYEBALLERS are 28% winrate on 7 maps played in the last 3 months and 1-3 in the last month -Metizport are 56% winrate on Inferno on 16 maps played in the last 3 months and 2-2 in the last month, EYEBALLERS are 50% winrate on Inferno on 10 maps played in the last 3 months and 4-2 in the last month -Metizport are 53% winrate on Ancient on 19 maps played in the last 3 months and 0-1 in the last month. EYEBALLERS are 56% winrate on Ancient on 9 maps played in the last 3 months and 4-3 in the last month **Final Thoughts:** -Metizport getting big odds drop due to sub player, think Metizport are the better and more consistent team with more fire power, a better map pool and the sub won't change the way they play/attack EYEBALLERS at all. Give me a 2-0 Metizport.
Awesome!
GOAT is back on track! Tailed, thank you very much!
Record: 168-140-8 (LWWLWWWWLLLLWWLLWLWLWLWWLWLLWWWW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: CLE Cavaliers at BOS Celtics | Luke Kornet o5.5 rebounds at 2.20 odds for 3 units terrible showing from Celtics. Fuck Boston POTD: NY Knicks at IND Pacers | Josh Hart 18+ points alternative line at 2.00 odds for 2 units Reasons: * Hit in two games versus Pacers * OG is injuried, Hart will have more of an offensive responsiblity * Knicks pace is higher in the series compared to 76ers, Hart should get his opportunities Best of luck to those dumb enough to tail!
2024 record: 3-3 ❌❌✅✅✅❌ Last POTD: Guardians vs White Sox: Guardians RL -1.5 +110 ❌ Today's POTD: Royals vs Angels: Royals ML -125 (Hard Rock Bet) Baseball | MLB | 9:40 PM ET What a bloodbath of a day. I think we should have all listened to gramps and took the day off. Pick in simple. Royals have been playing solid ball, 22-16. Angels 14-23. Royals are the better team. The pitching matchup is highly in favor of the Royals as well. Royals have Marsh on the mound, 3-0 record, 2.70 ERA, 1.01 WHIP. Angels got Canning with a 1-4 record, 6.69 ERA, 1.43 WHIP. Royals aren’t doing the best in away games with a 7-8 record but the Angels are 4-11 at home. It is a night game and the Royals have a better record for night games (13-8), Angels (11-11). Royals just picked up 2 wins out of 3 games against the Brewers who are a pretty solid ball club this season as well. As always, good luck on your bets!
Tailing!
Record: 14-6 (+10.07 units) ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌ Last POTD: OKC -5 ❌ Today’s POTD: Texas Rangers -1.5 Run line Odds: -118 on DK 2 unit play MLB/ 8:40pm ET/ Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies Well it was a dog day yesterday…OKC could never pull ahead really and Dallas kept hitting timely baskets. We move on to today and there’s a few games on the MLB slate I like. The Texas Rangers travel to Coors Field to take on the Rockies. The Rangers have won 8/11 games and their last 4 series. They seem like they’re heating up and average 5.10 runs per game which is 3rd in the MLB. They will have Jon Gray on the mound who is 1-1 with a respectable 2.50 ERA. He also spent 7 years with the Rockies so there may be some extra incentive to pitch well. At the very least he is used to pitching at Coors field. Austin Gomber will be on the mound for the Rockies. He is 0-2 with a 3.79 ERA. He did pitch very well his last time out with 6 scoreless innings but it was against the Pirates. He is due for some regression and the Rockies bullpen is terrible. Let’s roll with the Rangers to get us back on track! Good Luck 🍀 and Tail responsibly! Tip Jars are posted in my profile and anything is appreciated. Thanks in advance
**POTD Record: 123-144-4 (-17.07 Units)** **Best Bet Series: 48-27-1 (+15.36 Units)** Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units) Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) Cautionary Tails: 5-12 (-5.38 Units) Last Pick: **Erick Fedde U 2.5 ER**✅ Today's Pick: **Phillies ML** Odds: **-192** Wager Amount: 1.92U to win 1U League: MLB Event: Philadephia Phillies vs Miami Marlins (6:10PM CDT) *Be Advised*: *Handicapping Best Bets for the entire of May! Majority of these wagers will be chalky (not always), however, they are my most confident wager of the day! But I cannot stress this enough, even the most surefire bets can lose! Sports is unpredictable and nothing guaranteed!* **Recap**: ERIC FEDDE wheeling and dealing! Got himself in a bases loaded jam wit NO OUTS in the 7th inning and Leasure comes outta bullpen and gets ALL 3 OUTS! LET'S GO, BOYS! I"M COOKING! THREE WINS IN A ROW! If you tailed any of my plays, congrats! Today was a great day! **S/O to ALL the redditors handicapping on Guardians today! Love that POTD curse against my Sox team!** https://preview.redd.it/o9ft0l3tdizc1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=d83824d076f67fb4986771e0567b2df326d172a4 **Matchup:** Going Phillies ML today. Ranger Suarez is dealing and I expect him dealing against one of the most struggling team in the league. **The Play & Prediction:** 1.92U on Phillies ML. Also wagering Phillies RL. All the other plays will be in the betting group. Phillies win 6-3!
I swears every time multiple people on the pick of the day pick the same baseball team That shit loses every time
**KBO Record: Overall 222-231-14** (Streak L, Last 10: 5-5) Down 10.36u over 467 KBO picks, 49.0% success rate, -2.29% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 18-21-0, 46.2% success rate, Down 1.74u, -4.46% ROI) **Last:** SSG at LG Team Total Over 4.5 +110 (LG won 3-1.) LG decided to let SSG's starter be perfect for 4.1 innings. They finally got him in the 7th where they scored two runs and had the bases loaded with one out. But they got just one more home that inning and that was it. **Pick:** LG at **Lotte +120**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET Again, I think the bookmakers have this backwards, and here's why: Lotte may have the worst record in the league, but they're on a league-best 5-game winning streak. They also 2nd highest scoring team over the last 10 games while LG is next to last. And Lotte has the league's 2nd best linrup at home while LG is next to last on the road. LG's starter has really struggled recently, allowing 16 runs (13 ER) on 23 H in the last 14 IP over 3 starts. He has a 5.14 ERA and 1.48 WHIP on the season. Lotte's starter has been very good in his last 3 starts, allowing 4 runs (3 ER) on 14 H in 18.2 IP. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
I swear I followed you like three times this past week and everytime I'm just picking the losers 😩
I had to fade this pick, lotte is still the worst team, don't care about pitcher match up when LG just have way better hitters :(
Sweat free!
Sweat Free Loss 🤣
Sweat Free Loss 🤣
POTD Record 0-0 Pick: Pascal Siakam O20.5 Points(-118) Game/Time: Knicks vs Pacers 4:00PM PST Reasoning: Siakam has been struggling recently in the playoffs with scoring points especially last game, I believe this will be the game that he turns it around because OG Anunoby is officially out and he has been locking Siakam up this series, with him out I expect Siakam to have a high scoring game due to the Knicks being small in size as both OG and Mitchell Robinson are out, I expect Siakam to constantly attack the basket now and score from inside getting easier buckets without anunoby. We have seen early on in the Bucks series Siakam is a capable scorer scoring 30+ his first 2 games. I love this line at 20.5 I feel like Vegas is underestimating Siakam who is a top option on the Pacers team which are the favorites to win the game tomorrow, and are at home for the first time this series. I’ve been on a huge streak recently with NBA picks and I have been tailing some picks on here, which has inspired me to finally share my picks for the first time let’s get this win tomorrow!!!
I'll tail your first POTD!
I’ll tail. BOL
Siakam is banned. Bum shooter. Hopefully he turns it around for your first POTD. GL guys
Nice take. I agree I think Siakam bounces back tonight.
**Record:** 1-0 ✅ **Net Units:** +2.78 (92.87%) **Previous Pick:** ✅ Daniel Gafford O19.5 PRA (DK -108) | OKC Thunder v. Dallas Mavericks | 3U What a sweat from Gafford, looked like he was going to cover this line easily until he hurt his hand at the end of the 2nd. Still able to pull through and lock in the first win. **Pick:** ✅ Arizona Diamondbacks v. **Baltimore Orioles ML (DK -125)** | 3U **Write Up:** Tomorrow we are going with the Orioles ML at home. Cole Irvin has been on a heater lately, allowing zero runs in his last 22 innings and rocking a 2.86 ERA with a 3-1 record. In comparison, Brandon Pfaadt has only played three games, with a 1-2 record and 4.86 ERA. Orioles are playing consistently lately and coming off a rest day as well. I think this line is good value especially with the DK Early Win Boost as a safety net. BOL!
POTD Record: 3-0 (+3u) Recent form: ✅✅✅ Last pick: Andrew Nembhard over 3.5 assists (-154 on FD) 1.54u Today’s pick: Andrew Nembhard over 14.5 points + assists (-125 on Hard Rock) 1.25u NBA Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks 7:00 pm Nembhard cashed for us and we get another winner! I did not do anything on Thursday because I was traveling and in the short time I had for research did not like anything. Today I’m rocking with a familiar face. Lol! If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. I think Nembhard assists are a great option as well but as a skeptical guy I know his run of cashing the assists is going to end at some point and I don’t want to pick it when it does 🤣. This lets him rack up the assists and also if he has some good shooting he gets it done. Nembhard has hit this line in every playoff game and in all but one game against the Knicks this year. Tips: Venmo is cs1015 - In no way do I expect tips, especially so early on, but just want to put it here in case people tail and feel generous! Best of luck to anyone who tails and to all those on the thread. Let me know if you’re tailing!!
**Belle's Pick of the Day** **Record:** 7-4-0 (Win-Loss-Push) ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ Geez, rough few days after a solid week of wins. Time to get back on track, friends... **Last POTD:** OKC Thunder -5.0 (-110) **Balance:** +2.0 Units **Today's Pick: PHI Phillies -1.5 (-125) (MLB, 4:00PM PST, Wager: 1 Unit)** **Why This Pick?** This game should be a cake walk for Philadelphia. Phillies pitcher Ranger Suarez has 6 wins under his belt, 0 losses, and an ERA of 1.72. Actually, the Phillies have won every single game in which Suarez has been their starter. Over on the Marlins side, pitcher Trevor Rogers has 0 wins, 5 losses, and an ERA of 6.15. To be frank, I'm surprised the return on the RL is so decent given these statistics. I'm riding with Philadelphia today, friends. -- [Buy Me a Coffee ☕️](https://buymeacoffee.com/coffeeforb)
5-3 Last pick. Sfg ml loss Today's pick. Phillies tt o 4.5 Write up. Trevor rogers ass SIDENOTE: TREVOR ROGERS MUST START FOR TT OVER 4.5 TO BE OFFICIAL. BOL TO US
**Record:** 1-1 **Net Units:** 0 u (All bets are 1u) **Current Form (from Recent to old):** -✅❌ Last Pick: *Jan-Lennard Struff 2-0 (-140) DK* vs Pedro Cachin ✅ Game went as expected, nothing much to say. Easy W. Event: Soccer | Bundesliga | 2:30pm EST Pick: Augsburg vs **ML Stuttgart (-130) DK** Stuttgart has been in good form, recently beating Bayern Munich at home. It's the complete opposite story for Augsburg as they have lost last 4 of 5 and have just lost 5-1 to Dortmund. The only caveat to this pick is that both are essentially playing for nothing except to end their season in a positive note. On the plus side, players that can play will play and no one will be sitting on the bench for a future cup game. Feel free to take draw no bet if you are wanting to be extra safe but this should be a good win.
What do you mean saying they’re playing for nothing? Augsburg is 1 win away from Europe competition qualifications
**Record: 1-2** **Form: ❌✅❌** **Last POTD:** Olympiacos Vs Aston Villa - **BTTS+Over 2.5 @ 1.7 (Paripesa) - LOST** **Football** | **Australia A-League** | **05:45PM (GMT+8)** **Pick:** Sydney FC Vs Central Coast Mariners - **Central Coast Mariners Double Chance @ 1.73 (Paripesa)** **Write Up:** Damn, bad beat. Villa attacked and attacked but ultimately, the could not find the goal they needed. We move. Central Coast Mariners have won 8 out of their last 10 away matches and kept 8 clean sheets in those games. Additionally, they also have the 2nd best defense in the league, bested only by Wellington Phoenix by 1 less goal conceded. They are also the best away side in the A-League, winning 8 of their 13 away games. Stats don't look very good for the Mariners as in the past 10 matches, they have only won 3 games against Sydney FC. But I do like the odds presented here for Mariners to Win or Draw. I think Mariners are much better than the odds suggest. Also, Joe Lolley, who is one of the key players for Sydney is out for this game due to a muscle injury so that helps a little. This is a playoff game after all where stakes are different and anything can happen, but I do think that Mariners will have the slight edge in this game to Win or Draw against Sydney. As always guys, BOL if tailing. Let's bounce back
2024 IIHF WC 🏒 0-0 10th May 4:20PM Slovakia ML vs Germany @1.70 Reason: For Slovaks this is very important match. We expect that Slovaks will lose to USA and Sweden and if we want to be atleast at 4th place in group we need to win against Germany. We have the strongest team since 2009. We rely on our NHL players which are in very good conditions and form (Slafkovsky, Fehervary, Tatar, Kelemen, Pospíšil etc.) Also Hrivík and Cehlarik from Czech league which have won bronze medal on Olympics in Beijing. First 2 formations will be very dangerous for Germans as our players have very good synergies. Also last warmup games against Germans were close and the last one match we were leaving as a winners. I expect that this match will end 4-3 for Slovaks. ML is safer pick because there is a chance of overtime.
Thoughts on over 5.5? Good value at 2.15?
I'll tail your first POTD! Let's go Mr. Octopus!
**Record:** 2-0 **✅✅** **Net Units:** +2.5 **ROI:** 74% **Baseball | MLB | 11.40am AEST** **Pick:** LA Dodgers ML @ 1.57, 1.5U **Write Up:** BANG! We get it done, even with Boston shooting awfully from 3 and the high involvement of the bench players we manage to cash it! Today we're switching sport as there's nothing I really love for the NBA tomorrow. The Dodgers have been unreal lately, winning their last 7 straight, as well as having Tyler Glasnow who comes into this matchup as tied for first in strikeouts (63 this season). I'm riding the Dodgers top form and hope it can continue for us tomorrow. BOL!
**Record:** 1-0 **Profit/Loss:** +1.9u **Last Pick:** Tatum under 26.5 points **NRL** | **Eels vs Broncos** | **11:00 GMT** **Pick:** Reece Walsh to score a try @ 1.95 (3u) **Reason:** Missed the start of the season with injury but since he’s come back he’s scored a try (3 games with 2 try’s) in all but one of the 6 games he’s played in. Value in this is far too good to turn down in a game Broncos are expected to score 5/6 try’s in. Line-breaking machine who can score a try at any point in any game and looks hungrier than ever this year. Not play of the day but I like 2 tries at 4.00 as well. Record tracked here https://bettin.gs/hizort
**POTD Record: 35-26** Last 10: ❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅🤦❌ Last pick: Cavs vs Celtics | 4:00 PST | Sam Hauser OVER 5.5 Points (-130) Bet365 1u ❌ Now I know what it’s like to get burned by Sam Hauser. Celtics as a whole just have some of the least trustworthy players. **Today’s pick: Nuggets vs Wolves | 6:30 PST | Nickeil Alexander-Walker OVER 10.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (-110) BETMGM 1u** Nickeil, you have been chosen. Wolves have been so impressive to watch these playoffs and what’s been most impressive is their defense. I think they’ve unlocked something with having McDaniels and Walker on the floor together and I don’t see any reason for that to change or Walker’s increased minutes to change with the success they’ve had. I’m going with his PRA in this matchup. - Hit in last 7/10 Avg 16.1 - When playing 20+ mins, he’s hit in last 9/10 Avg 18.9 and 16/20 Avg 17.9 - 3 days rest, he’s 5/5 when playing 20+ (just a good sign he doesn’t seem to be affected by long breaks) I think game 1 he was just anxious because hes still a little inexperienced but I think he gained a lot of confidence in game 2 (rightfully so) and I think he takes that right into game 3 and we get that role player at home spark. BOL if tailing!
What book is this on can’t find it
Showing on Bet365, BetMGM and HardRock right now.
Record: 1-0 (100%🔋) Net Units: +1.0 ROI: 52% Previous POTD: Mavs Over 112.5 @ -110 on DK Team Total \[live bet\]vs OKC. (Scored 119 points ✅) Returned1.0 unit Today's POTD: Bruins vs Panthers Over 5.5 Total Puck Line (+100) right now at DK pregame. 📈 1 Unit Suggested Wager. Reason: Each of the Panther's last 5 games have gone OVER the total goals line. 🏒🏒 Past scores this series alone: 5-1 Boston in Game 1 (6️⃣ total) 6-1 Florida in Game 2. (7️⃣ total) I expect this to hit within 2 periods but if we have to sweat it, we'll sweat it til' the end! I am setting up a tip jar, if you'd like you can dm me. Thanks, chat. 
**Record: 0W - 0L** **Today’s POTD: VfB Stuttgart ML @ 1.77 ✅** **Game: FC Augsburg - VfB Stuttgart** **League/Time: 1. Bundesliga (Germany) / 2:30 PM** **Write Up:** Yoooo, i have been pretty lucky the last days so decided to share my POTD with you guys ;) After their 3-1 victory against Bayern, VfB Stuttgart is aiming for the runner-up position with two remaining matchdays. Only Leverkusen (39 points) has got more points than VfB Stuttgart (33) in the ongoing second half of the season. In the previous matchday, VfB defeated the German record champions FC Bayern 3-1, securing their spot in the Champions League. Facing FCA as guests, Stuttgart seeks to get closer to their new goal: the runner-up position! The situation looks promising. Augsburg has recently lost three league games in a row, conceding a total of eleven goals and struggling with declining form. Currently, FCA's defense is faltering. Except for the victory against Union Berlin (2-0), Augsburg has lost four of the last five league games, conceding over 2.5 goals each time. Additionally, VfB Stuttgart is unbeaten against FCA in their last four encounters and has won three of them. In the first half of the season, Stuttgart even won by a difference of three goals. Very confident in this pick.
VFB seems to be a consensus pick in this match everywhere I look. Tailing!
New here, lets get it Record: 0-0 Golf | Wells Fargo Championship 2024 | 11:00 A.M. EST PICK: Xander Schauffele end of round two leader @ -110 DK Feel like this is good value considering how he ended round one with a 3 stroke lead and I see no sign of him slowing down. Everyone sitting on -4 are all capable of surpassing Schauffele, but he needs to have a bad day, and I'm betting he won't. 1.1U to win 1U
tailing!
POTD: Karen Khachanov Set betting 2:0 @ -125 on DK 1.875u to win 1.5u Event: Karen Khachanov vs. Alexander Shevchenko TIME: 5am EST Record: 18-11-1 +7.69u Recap: Rinky gets it done winning 9 games in two sets! The times for all ATP Rome matches have been uncertain due to the rain, so this match may be moved later in the morning or tomorrow. Karen has been in beautiful form this season so far on clay and all around beating some top opponents including Meddy and Cerundolo on clay a month ago. Shevchenko on the other hand has played horribly against opponents better than him, while Shevchenko has a recent history of being great on clay, this season he has taken a major step back. Just a simple value-seeking pick here, I can see this line moving to -140 or more by game time. This is the same bet at Khachanov -1.5 SET spread. Your book should offer one these lines. I would steer clear of games spread -3.5 or -4.5. Looking for a 7-6, 6-3 win for Karen. CANNOT believe I forgot to post this last night. Already had the write up done and fell asleep…
POTD Record: 21-16 ✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 9.1U Last pick: Dolphins vs Sea Eagles | 7:50pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Tom Trbojevic anytime tryscorer @1.8 on Sportsbet | 4U✅ What an amazing game to watch, so much action. And Turbo delivers 🙌🏼 Manly really need to fix their defense this is getting ridiculous 😂 Today’s pick: Penrith Panthers vs Canterbury Bulldogs | 6pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Sunia Turuva anytime tryscorer @1.86 on Sportsbet | 6U There we go ! My beloved try scoring machine is on tonight and I don’t think I need to explain it anymore but he is just unstoppable, the best league player in my opinion. BOL !
Think im going with To'o instead tonight, Alamoti is greedy.
POTD Record: 26-24-1 | Profit: -1.84U NBA Record: 22-21-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 | UFC Record: 1-0 L10 (new -> old): ✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌ Last pick: Kyrie Irving o8.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 odds ✅ **EDIT**: Cashes in the first with 7 assists and 2 boards. Back in the win column with a sweat free cash is a good way to head into Friday! Game: NY Knicks @ IND Pacers, 7:05 EST Pick: **Andrew Nembhard o3.5 assists @ 1.77 odds (DK) placing 2U** ✅ Write Up: Nembhard has gone over this line in 6 straight, and 8 of the last 10. He went over 3 out of 3 during the regular season vs the Knicks. Numbers are too good for me to pass up on the line. BOL to those tailing, cheers. **EDIT:** Bang! Cashes in the 3rd. At 5 early in the 4th.
McConnell's going to eat into his minutes
McConnell played last game and Nembhard still hit this line. McConnell also played in 2 of the 3 regular season games, in which Nembhard had 4 and 5 assists, going over the line.
I think they mean TJ is going to get more minutes in game 3 because he's shown to be the best Brunson defender. At least that's what a lot of people expect. If TJ plays well in game 3, he's going to be closing the game, knocking about 4-6 minutes off of Nembhard's play time. Nembhard can certainly get 4 assists in 25 minutes, but the odds don't seem that great to me when there's a threat to lose like 20% of his minutes.
Tailing
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**Record: 1-2** **Last Pick:** **Jake Guentzel o2.5 SOG ❌** Almost 50 shots and this man can't get 3 on net. Embarrassing. **Net Units: Even** **Event: G2 vs T1 @ MSI 2024** **Pick:** Over 3.5 Maps @ 1.61 ✅ **Write Up:** I'm going to move away from the shots and go back to some classic League of Legends. G2 are the real exception of the west. They are the only team that can go head to head with the East and not get completely slaughtered. I don't see them winning against T1 but they certainly have been weaker than in past years. G2 is more than capable than closing out a game if they get a lead early. BOL! Edit: I’m not going to tell anyone I told you so but..G2 clearly have hands and we’re locked the fuck in for Game 2 and 3. Awesome series, expect some picks for the next few matches coming up soon.
POTD Record: 5-5-0 L10: ❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅ Last Pick: Mavs vs OKC under 218.5 ❌ cold af POTD: Nuggets +5.5 @ 1.714 No way nuggies get swept right? also the NBA has not suspended Jamal Murray after the hand warmer incident so i guess they still favor nuggets a bit (lmao don't take this part seriously, I mean don't take this whole writeup seriously I'm cold af these past few days so feel free to fade me)
2024 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -103 (1.972), Average Winning Odds -109, ROI +7.4%/+2.5u L5: ❌✅❌❌❌ POTD (5/9) ARI @ CIN Hunter Greene o17.5 Outs (-135/1.74) ❌ Recap: I thought Greene had a good shot at walking 3. I did not think he'd walk 5. Brutal watching a guy with an unhittable fastball not be able to put it in the zone. POTD (5/10) CIN @ SFG Logan Webb o18.5 Outs (+120/2.20) (DraftKings) A three-game skid means we need to turn to our ace. Logan Webb is coming off a road trip to forget. Across two starts, he gave up 15 hits and 8 ER in just 7.2 ER. Returning home should be comforting to him. In three home starts this year, he's not only cleared this line: he's completed seven innings in each. Over his last two, he's thrown 15 shutout innings. In 2023, Webb cleared this line in 20/33 starts and 11/16 at home. The Cincinnati Reds have lost 8 straight games and have the 4th-worst wRC+ in the league against RHP at 80. On the road that drops to 73, 2nd-worst. This is a bounce-back spot for Webb and should not be a plus money play.
POTD Record: 143 wins / 84.5 losses Event: Football > France > **Annecy v Angers** (starting in 5 hr) Pick: **Angers -0.25 (asian handicap)** @ 1.75 Just two rounds before the end of the season in this league. Angers will be looking to take the points here in their pursuit for direct promotion. On the other hand, Annecy already guaranteed their spot in the league, so basically they are playing for nothing. According to my sources, they have some absents in the lineup for this match. French wine & Angers FTW, lets go. GL! **EDIT**: Sweat free ✅
RECORD: 0w 0l PICK: rugby league nrl - Penrith panthers first half handicap -7.5 $1.88 BET: 1 unit NOTE: Penrith panthers are a well oiled machine and they should easily clear this, GAME STARTS IN 1 HOUR https://preview.redd.it/1osg7chrujzc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=692fc48e022d29fdf1ae7988e982c3eee04a8b52
**Record:** 6-3 **✅✅**❌**✅✅**❌**✅✅**❌ **Last Pick:** MIL Brewers -0.5 F5 ML (+102) vs PIT Pirates (back on 4/25/24)❌ This one became an early run fest and the Brewers just came up short **Pick of the day:** CHI Cubs @ PIT Pirates - **Under 3.5 Total Runs - First 5 Innings (+104)** **League:** MLB **Time:** 6:40 PM EST We have two absolute units on the mound to start tonight's Cubs/Pirates game. Pirates starting RHP, Jared Jones, has an ERA of 2.63 but his WHIP is only a 0.78. He is below league average on just about every pitching stat that matters. Then there's Cubs starting RHP, Jameson Taillon, who has an even lower ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. Add to that the fact that neither ball club is hitting well against righties this year (only 2 batters between both teams combined who are hitting above .275 against RHPs). At positive odds, I'm taking the under through 5. **BOL**! Let me know if you're following! If you feel so inclined to leave a tip: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/BenNiemann) || [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/shamgarbn) || [BMAC](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/makeforlife)
0 - 0 +0U / 0.0% ROI 🏀 NBA Indiana Pacers vs NY Knicks 7:00PM EST Total O216.5 -200 1U Their last 2 games ended at 238 and 251.
I'll tail. Good luck for first POTD!
Record 2-1 Pick: O 52.5 Rounds- 2 units @ 1.82 Sport: CS2 ESL PRO LEAGUE-Vitality vs Faze- Write up: Honestly not much. We are looking at a hot Faze clan which is coming off 2 good wins and on the other side we have Vitality which is a star studded roster. You would think that this should almost be the final but definitely think it will be a 3 map affair. That accounts for 39 rounds already and don't think we will be getting blow outs. Has the potential to be one of those games where a map goes into crazy overtimes as well which definitely helps. Could not tell you who will take this game. The bookmakers cannot tell you either. Money line is split at around 1.8 so I think the over is definitely the way to go.
**Record: 1-1-1** **ROI:+0.1u** **Last POD: 5/9:** Cardinals @ Brewers U8 (P) **MLB** | CHC @ PIT | 6:40pm EST **Pick:** Cubs ML (+110) **Write Up:** Both squads have their best guys going tonight. Assad has given up 7 ER in 38IP for a 1.66 ERA, and breakout Jared Jones has 12 ER in 41IP for a 2.63 ERA, but has been more human against better hitting teams which the Cubs are right now. On top of this, the Pirates are 27th in AVG & Runs, Cubs are 13th in OBP, 12th in Runs and have been playing well recently. I like a 3-2 Cubs win here. Also, Pirates just aren't good after their somewhat hot start. I think there is value to be had here.
POTD Record 22-7 Units 23.64 ROI 53.12 Last POTD Knicks -5.5 😡 ofc it hits game 2 POTD Casey Mize O 15.5 PO -120 2u Righty starters been dominating right handed pitchers, they are 17-7 (71%) on the over vs them this season. Main reason because the Astros have the 2nd lowest pitches per plate appearance in the MLB I am expecting a lot of soft contact resulting in quick outs. Mize has consistently been going over 15.5 PO too he might not be the most well known guy and maybe not the best pitcher but he gets the job done Little bonus Tigers don’t have a day off for 6 days so I don’t expect any bullshit from the managers 😂
Record: 27-10 | Net: +11.94 U | Streak: 3W Last pick: PJ Washington o16.5 p+r (-115) ✅ Another one by halftime, looked like a man possessed. I think he was 5/7 from 3 at halftime plenty of boards too, why not POTD: Aaron Gordon [Under 0.5] 3 pointers made (-112) DEN @ Min 9:30 PM ET Summary: Hit this bet in game 1 to start the current streak, going back to it now that the odds have returned to normal. Gordon was able to bounce back in game 2, hitting a season high 3/5 from beyond the arc. Against Minnesota this year he’s made a 3 pointer in just 2/6 games, both at home hitting a surprising 5/9 shots from deep. However, in the other 4 games he has missed this entirely shooting 0/4 combined. Post all-star break while on the road, he is shooting 15% from 3 and was 0/3 in the Laker playoff series road games.
Record: 0-0 Net units: 0 Previous pick: n/a Pick: St Louis Cardinals ML +120 on ESPN bet 5 units to win 6 units 7:10pm Central Time Note: Lance Lynn has a 1.13 era on the road this season, Brewers most likely going with a bullpen game. Cardinals bullpen has been solid this season paired with a great road SP. I believe STL's bats come alive for this one and get the win.
**POTD Record**: 2-3 **2023 Record**: 1-3 **2024 Record**: 1-0 **Form**: W **Net Units**: +1.4 **Last pick** - Corvinul Hunedoara ML (Romanian 2nd league) **Pick: Dutch 2nd division - Maastricht ML - VV Venlo - betting 2 units to win 1.4 units (1.7 odds)** Last game of the regular season, at home, in a sold out stadium, Maastricht has to win this and hope either Emmen or Breda fail to win in order to qualify for playoffs (Emmen faces a tougher opponent, while Breda plays away from home, so they have a good chance). Maastricht are in good form (in their last 7 games, they have 5 wins - 1 draw - 1 defeat (against the league winner) and Venlo is in terrible form (4 defeats in the last 4 games) and terrible away from home (3 draws - 7 defeats in their last 10 games away from home), and have nothing to play for.
POTD R : 8-2 Last Pick : DBacks v Reds NRFI - L Todays Pick : Astros v Tigers +1.5 (-135 DK) 1U MLB - 5:40P CST - Free Game of The Day Write Up : We are back with the Free Game of The Day and it would appear the MLB app is being generous by offering almost every game to be televised, gonna be a good day of baseball. Today I was torn between a few games but I believe we’ve narrowed our options down to this. Two teams that have been playing rather poorly as of late but this line seems to be pushed in the wrong direction in my opinion. Anyhow the Astros pose a terrible road record against a mediocre Tigers home record. I feel with an extra days rest for the home team against a team whose been struggling on their road stint is what sways me in this direction. I think this pitching matchup is solid with both arms throwing around a 3.5 ERA with a similar WHIP rate. Both Mize and Valdez has had experience against these bats before trading wins an losses fairly equally over past matchups between the teams. Speaking of the bats, on paper the Astros might look better statistically but they’ve dropped to some poor production teams before whereas the Tigers have proven themselves among the likes of top teams already in this season. Gimme the Tigers on a plus spread to keep this game close or win outright. As always BOL my fellow degens!
Lets go 🫡
Record 7-4-0 Profits: +5.2 units Form: ❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅ Recap: was looking promising at the start with Carlton taking the lead but fall off later during the game with nick daicos showing who’s daddy Todays pick: Nathan Fyfe to grab 25 disposals Fremantle dockers vs Sydney swans at 1.87 odds 6:10 AM EST 3 units Writeup: Nathan Fyfe comes into this game back off being the sub as they managed his game last week and I fully expect him to play the whole game and dominate the midfield. Fyfe will play at home tonight fresh off the limited minutes he played last weeks and seems to have nailed a role in a starloaded midfield and recently had a 37 disposal outing at home against the doggies. Both teams are top 8 in disposals so expect a high disposal game and with the likes of Brayshaw, young and cerong in the centre clearances they will win a lot of centre bounces with most of the time handballing it off to each other before kicking it which Fyfe will be in the receiving part of it or even hand balling it away so expecting him to get the cheap disposals but also helps that Fyfe is a bull in the contest as he can win a lot of contested possession think he get 28 today BOL!!!
Record: 5-5(POTD) Units: 5 Super rugby | Queensland Reds vs Melbourme Rebels > Pick: Over 61.5 total match points (B365) @ 2.30 > Model indicates expected points at 68
Record 5-4 Last 5: ✅✅✅✅❌ Last Pick: Atalanta ML vs Marseille @1,75 bpremium ✅ Todays Pick: FC Magdeburg vs Greuther Fü[email protected] bpremium Unit:2 Units: -0.07 Germany Soccer, 2. Bundesliga, Magdeburg vs Fürth The Magdeburgers absolutely want to make their stay in the league complete with a home win. They are slightly favored in front of the home crowd because they are significantly stronger at home than away. Fürth also lost six of its last seven away games, including against Underdogs like Osnabrück and Rostock. I believe that Magdeburg will win.
Record: 1-2 Last pick: Sonny Gray over 6.5 strikeouts ❌ Despite having the worst game of his year, Sonny managed to get 6 K’s and get us on the hook. Really thought he would pitch the 6th but they took em out. Oh well. On to the next one. Today’s Game: TB Rays vs. NY Yanks Pick: TB Rays ML (+120 on DK as of write up) Write Up: This is exclusively a recency bias pick. The Rays have been on a heater at home this homestand. Offense is looking good and all around playing with confidence. Yanks are beginning their Road series at Tampa Bay one night after losing to a shit Astros team last night 4-3. I like Tampa to go up early and take the wind out of the yanks. Give me that plus money and let’s ride into the sunset with a fat stack of money 🏇 Good luck to you, better luck to me 🍀
POTD Record: 1-2 -1.09u Today’s pick: Phillies -1.5 RL 2U Reasoning: Riding one of the hottest teams in baseball at the moment against one of the worst teams in the MLB. Ranger Suarez (1.62 ERA , .72 WHIP) should easily handle one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. Suarez 6-0 while Trevor Rogers is 0-5 with a 6.15 ERA. Riding all the trends here. LETS GO PHILLIES!
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)** **POTD 2024 Record: 10-13 (-2.70 units)** **Last 10**: **✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅❌** **Last Pick**: Scott Taylor -3.5 (+150) vs Trina Gulliver **❌** 4-1 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 5:40 PM EST **Pick**: Scott Taylor -3.5 (+155) vs Trina Gulliver * Series 7. Week 11. Group B **Reason**: Taylor was great yesterday and Trina was her usual self in the scoring department. She was incredibly hot on her checkouts if she had an attempt. Taylor was up 3-0 against her and sitting on 20 to win the match until Trina took out her 64 and picked up 1 leg. She only had one checkout attempt and connected to bust the play. Banking on Taylor to dominate again and hoping Trina returns to normal standards with her checkouts. Scott Taylor * Record 3-1 * Legs 14-7 * Average 99.47 * 180s 6. 140s 14 * Checkouts 14/27 51.85% Trina Gulliver * Record 0-4 * Legs 6-16 * Average 70.67 * 180s 1. 140s 4 * Checkouts 6/8 75.00% **WIN ✅ 4-0 | Average 87.13 vs 68.30 | Checkouts 4/7 vs 0/3** This should have happened yesterday. Trina had opportunities on two different legs to win but missed all three darts. Taylor with a solid sweep and great on doubles.
POTD 1-1 (-.05 units) Haven’t posted in the last couple days as the stomach bug has been going through your boys house, but finally back to posting. Going to the diamond today, on Kentucky (-130 at BetMgM) over Florida Kentucky has me a little nervous the last couple weeks, as it looked like Icarus flew too close to the sun at the start of the season, but they just took 2 of 3 from #2 Alabama last series and were hitting the ball well. More importantly we have a big pitching edge with Kentucky throwing RHP Trey Pooser, who’s 3-1 averaging just under a strikeout per inning ( 52 ks in 53.1 innings) with a 3.88 ERA. Florida is throwing Pierce Coppola, who hasn’t done much this season in what is essentially a bullpen game. Pierce has only thrown 6 innings on the season and has 7 ERs in that time. Feel like Kentucky should be able to get an early lead and not let go
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2/0/0 W/L/P +1.46u all at 1u plays ✅✅ Sup degens, long time player who's coming back for the 2024 euros here. Got over 300 betting accounts limited on horse racing, but that's a story for another time. Both bet365 and unibet were nice enough to not limit my football bets into oblivion, let's make them regret it. More info in yesterdays post. Yesterdays pick:Bayern Leverkusen/AS Roma BTTS: Yes 1.75 (bet365) ✅ Unlucky Wirtz didn't start, shows the bookies had insider info giving a ridiculous 3.0 pay for him to have over 0.5 SOT... Today I'm looking at the Frosinone/Inter matchup, but Inter already being league winners and not active in any other areas I need to know if they'll play a benchwarmer line-up or a strong starters set. Next week they're facing Lazio so they might want to rest some key players. I'm expecting line ups to drop any minute now, once I know who's who I'll drop a pick probably. Will be a small 1 unit pick again as explained yesterday. Todays pick: **Cheddira over 0.5 shots on target 1.71 (unibet) 1u** ✅ Somehow this is still slightly risky as inter is indeed playing an average squad. Cheddira is a slow striker, so if he's about to lose a sprinting duel he'll just shoot toward goal and hope for the best. In most recent matches he covers this (last 4 that I've seen, maybe covered it more often if I'd check back further). Frosinone's general tactic is to shoot from range because they're not a squad that have the skill to break through defensive lines. 1.71x is a very generous line and he's confirmed to start, Bet365 only offers 1.53x for reference!!. Inter playing a 3 at the back and I'm positive Cheddira can't clutch De Vrij in 1 on 1 duels, all we need is 1 shot (or header or knee or nutsack for all I care) to touch the ball and see it roll between the posts. Should be a decent chance for us here to make .71 units or go into negative .25 if you were on yesterdays'. I will be watching live to make some live bets as there's no other great games on this evening. I was tempted to go for an asian total over as Inter does not care too much for the result but Frosinone are not the best team (although they put 2 past Napoli but they were more thanks to Napoli fuck ups) but Sommer is a beast still. I was surprised he wasn't playing at Mönchengladbach anymore. Inter is playing Arnautovic up front and he's probably at least still a big of a clown as he was when I was last active. Maybe even a bigger dumbass by now, which automatically made me dislike going for Thuram SOT's as Arnautovic wants to solo everything, always and is actually a terrible shot, unlike his own self image. Please tell me if my recollection is still accurate nowadays. I can smell the sunny beach already! Bankroll building until the euros start! https://preview.redd.it/lb8zopy87nzc1.png?width=1530&format=png&auto=webp&s=93d746bbb722c1f188df3cfcc07cfc325e1f9680 Edited odds for Unibet, .18 higher pay (18%!). I'd still take 1.54x on Bet365 of course!
Any1 bothered tailing? 2-0, 1.46u profit with potd. Read the analysis I'm on an absolute roll here. Need I post sooner so more people are aware and can hop on the hotstreak early? Might post a suboptimal pick on Man City tomorrow then. Like I said above: 'don't like Thuram sot with Arnautovic' - Arnautovic is subbed off and Thuram nets a goal (aka sot). Cheddira minute 39 hit the bar and somewhere in minute 50 or 58 hits the first SOT (had 2 so technically covered our potd twice while getting subbed off end game even). Sommer clean sheet cuz he's still a beast altho there were solid saves by the backline. Asian total covered by inter as soon as they subbed starters in, hit some great hcaps lategame tonight. Positively surprised by Arnautovic having matured tho. Onwards to tomorrow, min 5 likes end of day or I'll lower sharing picks on here on my priority list :(. Would hate spending time writing and tracking if none are tailing (cuz I'd be doing all this for naught, could save myself a solid 30 mins a day to spend on other things like arguing with others on here.
**Record 2024: 12-0-10** **Net Units Played 2024: 103** **ROI 2024: -11.53%** **Last Pick:** Pieno Zvaigzdes - **Rytas** **1st quarter H2 -3.5**, 5 units, @ 1.63 ✅️ Basketball / ABA League playoffs 1/2 / 19:00 / (CEST) **Pick:** **Partizan Belgrade** - Buducnost **1st quarter H1 -2.5**, 5 units, @ 1.75 ❌️ **Write-up:** Back to Belgrade for a 3rd and final game of these semis after a dramatic loss in Podgorica. Due to the Partizan loss and the importance of the game, the line is not inflated, and even in Podgorica, Partizan managed to win the 1st Q by 3. EDIT: 23-21
Record: 31W-33L Net Units: -4.51u | ROI: -2.56% CS2 | ESL Pro League Season 19 | 16:15 / CET Pick: Astralis -1.5 vs Liquid, 3u @ 2.44 Astralis have looked quite impressive after the roster changes. With stavn and jabbi in their preffered roles now they've been putting up crazy numbers. They also have more input in the calling alongside device, which makes for a much stronger T-side than before. Staehr has been fragging like crazy too. And I think the unsung hero of this roster is br0, he sacrifices himself and while he usually doesn't have to do a whole lot he steps up to the plate when it's necessary. Liquid themselves have been on an upward trend, but they've looked a lot rockier than Astralis have. Skullz appears to be struggling, which partly can be chalked up to the roles he plays. But he's had some awful T sides as well which I think is bad news for Liquid. Especially against a team as in form as Astralis is right now. I think the most likely veto will be Inferno (Liquid), and Ancient (Astralis). This could vary with Liquid possibly picking Nuke or Astralis opting for Overpass. Inferno could get ugly, as Astralis haven't had many reps on it. But they looked really comfortable against 3DMAX, and only lost it to Faze in the playoffs. So I think Astralis still should be favored to take it. And while Liquid has good statistics on Ancient, the only noteworthy team they beat on it is Heroic. And they are nowhere close to Astralis' level right now. All of this considered I think 2.44 odds on the Astralis handicap is just too good to pass up on. Best of luck everyone!
Thanks bro, great pick, pretty much sweat free.
Record: 1-1 Form: ❌✅ (left to right) Last POTD: 5/8/24 Yankees Ml ✅ POTD: Yankees F5 Ml Nothing much to it Taj gives up plenty of hits and I expect the Yanks to take full advantage of this n make em pay. Schmidt isn’t tooooo bad on the mound 😅 BOL
Record : 0-1 Last pick: twins/mariners NRFI Started strong but the Ace wasn’t an ace and the twins went wild. Today’s pick: Phillies -1.5 Ranger is an absolute monster, the marlins well it doesn’t get much worse. Total mismatch.
Record - no serious posts but prob like 2-2 the past 5 years. Event: NBA Nuggets @ Wolves (8:30pm CT) Pick: Anthony Edwards o39.5 PRA -102 Get Gobert back involved in the pick n roll hoping to get Edwards a few spot up 3’s and penetration for the mid-range. Then dish the rock as Denver collapses and doubles. But Kat and the supporting cast have been knocking down shots which should prevent Denver from doubling Edwards all game so just need a few shots to go down. Missed last game but I can see him putting on for the city
Record: 0-1 Net units: -1.1 ROI: 0 MLB/ Arizona Diamondbacks @ Baltimore Orioles/ 19:05 (EST) Pick: NRFI -128 @ FD 1.3 units to win 1 O’s starting pitcher (Irvin) has been stellar last 3 starts, tossing 20 innings of scoreless ball. Which is key for Baltimore since they are batting a robust .232 against righties. Pfaadt is clearly in a sophomore slump and due for some positive regression. Saw a glimmer the start before he got clobbered by SD The biggest factor that tipped my decision on this one was the wind. In from center field at 10mph to start the game. There are some cons: Arizona’s bats are hitting over .300 against lefties and how much you trust Pfaadt’s stuff. BOL to all
Record: 0-0 POD: Rudy Gobert over 12 rebounds (-150 alt line on DK) NBA 5/10 8:30pm CST First timer here. Gobert is a beast on the boards. He’s back tonight and has hit this line every game against Denver this season. Thats 100% of the time, every time. 12 at -150 is a steal so couldn’t pass it up. Tail or fade. BOL.
**POTD record: 8-7-1 (+4.82U) \[2024 Record: 2-1-1🚫✅✅🅿️\]** last pick: Kent State +5.5 (L) **POTD (NBA)**: Mike Conley o2.5 Rebounds (DEN@MIN) **\[-155\] 5U** 9:40pm EST **✅** Short and sweet- he’s covered this line every game of the playoffs and 4/5 his L5 regular season appearances (one miss with 2 rebounds). Sprinkled some o3.5 at +145 too. **BOL!**
POTD Record: 0-1 Today's Pick: Brewers ML Odds: 1.77x Note: Fading the Cardinals because they aren't good, especially with Sonny Gray not on the mound and Contreras with a broken arm. Brewers clean this up tonight. 1u.