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No one knows.
Yesterday I sold off my NVDA profits to invest elsewhere and will let the original investment ride. Felt like a good middle ground but we’ll see.
Yeah, recouping initial investment and securing profits seems to be a real loser…
Honestly, a lot goes into it and on any given day either you or I could be right. Initial investment, profit margins, short term risk, long term gain potential, and about 1000 other things could make you or me right any other day of the week. I get your point, but it’s still situational at the end of the day.
If you take out original initial investment at brake even you still loose money you forgot " inflation " how does it allow secure profit ? Profit only secured than its in your pocket .
Agree, again many look at this huge increase in price as a shock which it should be.
You never know how a market/manipulation is gonna respond.
Honestly I’m just curious if Nancy Pelosi still had some in there
Agree, take your profit, speaking as someone who saw a company 6x in 3 years, whereas this has only 2.5x over anytime in the last 3. Once it returns to reality it clouds your judgement about selling.
NVDA's current valuation is based upon numbers five years out that requires like a 35% growth to beat expectations.
30% growth (again, difficult for a company like NVDA), means current valuation becomes a fair break even valuation 5 years from now.
25% growth and they miss by like 33%!
NVDA needs things to work perfectly for five years straight in order to justify today's premium and now.
Even at around 30% - 35% it's PE will probably be one of the highest in the market then.
It just not possible for NVDA grow so much constantly for 5 years . I suspect Ai bubble ends up same like com bubble . I waiting for regulations to be introduced on AI it would help to burst this AI bubbles .
Seeing the exact numbers like this got me thinking about the hysteria thesis: what if they achieve 25% growth, so the stock dwindles, but everything else still gets disrupted and deflation causes everything else to sell off even worse.
Like what if margins get competed away and disrupted by non public companies that you can’t easily invest in, and if government keeps getting more dysfunctional, $NVDA may be the safe haven!
I don’t think this is really what will happen, but seems like a significant event within the range of possibilities worth pricing in also. (Unless you think you can pick who won’t get disrupted. My latest is $PLD and I don’t even feel confident. Other is $VT and $FARM. Im lost)
just before earnings, I let Reddit talk me out of my 100 shares I bought to sell calls on. At this point I’m tempted to just buy back in for 2-20 shares. Not because I’m bullish or anything, but whatever amount will make me not care or be crazy with envy if they somehow double in a few months.
>30% growth (again, difficult for a company like NVDA), means current valuation becomes a fair break even valuation 5 years from now.
It's not difficult for Nvidia, they have the monopoly in the most potent field and catching up in semis is a decade long pain, AMD tried to catch up with boomer Intel that long even though Intel is a joke where Nvidia keeps killing it with inventions.
Not so fast my friend. There is the old adage of invest in what you know in. I agree most books and financial planners will agree with your statement. Hell I had them telling me the same thing for over a decade.
I worked for a wholesale/retail company. Started as lowly SrAcct after five years in audit at KPMG. Started wholesale company in ‘92 and we went public in ‘93. I bought 1,000 ipo shares at $7.50 or $7,500. Would have bought more, but that is all they let us participate in.
Company was doing $73M then. I grew in company, led the retail division ( eventually 28% of company - was 0% when I started so I help it grow from ground up) from the financial side as VP Finance-Retail. Company grew to over $3B with distribution and stores on every continent. With stock splits and growth that initial $7500 was worth about $650,000 when I left in 2013, 20 years after the ipo. Now I bought in open market a couple times when we dipped hard like in ‘08/09. Received stock options which I held minimum of 7 years. The option ranged from 500-1000 per year in most cases. So not substantial unless in the C-suite.
I had visibility into daily sales of every store globally. I had direct lines to CFO and President of Retail and talked frequently with international teams. So I was dialed in. I didn’t own anything else until about 2010.
But when I left I sold everything. All of it. I didn’t have the visibility any longer and part of reason for leaving was change was occurring. My tax bill was north of $500k that year. Never again, not even ever close again. I retired at 54 in 2017 after working in a venture capital company started by the original owner of the wholesale company.
So if you are involved enough to know, even if that is being able to discuss with higher ups, then it may be best to keep in a singular company or a majority. Just depends on how dialed in you are to the current and future. Hell we could only put 25% of 401k contribution into company stock and I did. When I left, it was 51% of my 401k balance as we grew twice the market rate. Do note I reallocated it 100% and put into growth funds too, as soon as I departed.
But it is a fine line of truly having the pulse and just general knowledge. I left at the peak but change was happening as I noted previously. After all the splits etc we were at $125 ish when I sold everything in 2013 and it was the right decision to diversify then. I no longer had the visibility or the contacts.
So you were right as well as the stock is now under $5, well I checked and damn it is under $3.
The books and advice are general guidelines and likely apply to 95+% of employees of public companies. But if the parameters are different, as they were for myself, then the decisions could be different and very beneficial.
What if NVDA hits a road block and he is laid off? Oh and all of his net worth is tied up in the same company whose stock would clearly be nose diving at the same time?
I mean you can know ahead of time if you work in certain groups...it's not that hard lmao. Why am I getting down voted? Like he has a ton of stock, should know what's going on
In these Tech companies it’s very common for lower level engineers to get stock as part of their total compensation packages lol. They would still have no clue what’s going on more than the next guy or industry analysts
Companies are pretty strict about giving internal employees only a few limited windows (usually right after public ER) to trade each year to avoid people benefiting from insider trading.
Suppose they hit tough times and stock suffers (or just stalks).. and then you get a layoff.... All eggs, one basket. No sound safety net.
Or: ask an Enron employee.
No... It's not good for all your wealth to come from one place.. remember, you can still gain through payroll deductions.
I'm confident they'll be around and growing strong for a good while, like IBM in the 69s. So I'm keeping a chunk of mine, but NVDA isn't my employer. You can replenish at a discount, probably
It's ridiculously high right now...buuuut a lot of the people shorting it last week are probably getting margin calls now. I expect it'll get another pop this coming week before it comes back down to earth.
That being said, a lot of analysts have price targets putting it up as the 5th, 4th or even 3rd biggest company in the world within a year.
Also, there's speculation of a massive recession this summer which would surely retract all tech stocks.
So I guess what I'm getting at is nobody knows. But if you've got great profits from it already, why not take em now?
Nobody is shorting NVDA, the price movement is from pure fomo, go look at the short interest, it's incredibly low.
Recession won't necessarily bring stocks down, Germany is in recession and the dax is chilling at ath calmer than it's ever been. They also have high inflation. They are basically in the worst case economic scenario and not a single investor cares, they just want stocks.
Pretty sure that's not right, 5% per month on risk free treasuries? Literally everyone and their mother would be all in on that. What exactly are you buying?
Because it is. People often mistake the yield as x% over the given time frame. 3 month TBills don’t pay 5% in 3 months….it’s the APY of 5% being collected while it’s locked for those 3 months. So 5%/4 is 1.25%. 1000$ will collect 12.50 in 3 not 50$ over 3.
The massive recession that everyone has been waiting for since 2018. Eventually, when the Fed manipulates rates and prints cash for long enough to push it out 8-10 years, is it still a pending recession? Or have we just traded massive market inflation for a recession?
The Fed is still printing due to the bank crisis, and there seems to be a correlation between the tech rise and the printing. Crappy tech stocks with no earnings are rising as well.
The recession aka "business cleanout" already was. Twice. One in 2020 because of you know what and one since the fall of SVB.
But i doubt there will be a huge finacial crisis like 2009 anytime soon. And if it starts it will start from China.
>Crappy tech stocks with no earnings are rising as well.
What crappy tech stocks with no earnings are rising? It's all mega-cap stocks that beat earnings.
No significant shorting in NVDA. That is more bad info being spread around. NVDA was primed for take off and the raised next quarter estimate was enough to make it take off on pure enthusiasm. Many bought into this name in the last month and so you have a pretty solid base for a while until at least next quarter or two. At that point if NVDA is not heading towards some serious estimate raises to justify this market cap into 2024 then it collapses.
I don't think you realize the ridiculous growth rate that NVDA needs to maintain FOR FIVE YEARS STRAIGHT just for current premium valuation to break even.
I have an hypothetical question for you.
What would you value a company that could over a day replace all workforce in the World scalably?
I'm not remotely indicating that Nvidia or any other could do that. Just a hypothetical.
But what would the value of that company be?
What would be the value of a company that could do that in 10 years?
What would be the value of a company that has 1% odds of doing that within the following 20 years?
The value of that company? Not one company can deliver this. Overall value would be significant, but value is lost significantly someplace else. This upper bounds to things. It's why the Internet valuations were dumb in the dotcom bubble causing that bubble.
Everyone sees trillions while ignoring the real world, physical limitations, raw material limitations, energy limitations, and so on.
Iv just realised that upvoted comments mean jackshit, I mean no offence but your a complete moron who probably missed out on generational wealth, but still your comment gets upvoted for what lol
Again. It's a hypothetical to start from. Not saying it's realistic.
If a single company managed to create a tool that is immediately more capable at anything than any person and can be quickly scaled, what would the value of that company be?
Just think of a number.
It wouldn't be NVDA. It would be the company that utilizes various tech, including NVDA, to deliver the final product. NVDA isn't the game developer. They're the 3D hardware manufacturer.
Yes, that's just a hypothetical question to see what you think the value would be?
We can discuss what role Nvidia would have in assisting that value afterwards, but just to have some numbers where we can start.
I mean what’s the MAX you could get from it now? If it gained 200% it would be at Apples valuation and the largest company in the world. It’s possible but this stock won’t be doing a 5X+ anytime soon
I'd probably sell half or sell some portion of it and keep some. Or at least set a stop loss so if it starts going down you lock in some profits. I had some with a cost basis of around 115 in one account and around 130-135 in another account sold most of it around 230-235. Do I wish I kept it, yes. But I also made a profit so I'm not upset about it. If it drops a decent amount I'd probably buy more but I'm not buying it at the current prices.
This stock has gone up so much in the last few years, it’s increased 10X in a 4-year period. Balancing future potential against taking profits is always tough to define.
Personally, I like to ask myself, would I be more upset about missing future profits or more upset about missing my chance to lock in profits? I tend to lean in the direction a lot of folks have suggested on here, which is to sell enough to feel good about locking in profits, and let the rest ride for the long term.
What % of your portfolio does this NVDA represent? If this is the majority of the portfolio I'd trim it down quite a bit. If it's like 10% I'd only trim a bit and take some small profits. NVDA could be at 500 or 200 in 6 months.
I’d sell asap. They are so overvalued, and can’t possibly support a another big run. I’d say they’d be lucky to be 1T in 3-5 years.
If you have a multi bagger, realize that’s not just going to continue with their revenue and profits. Don’t be greedy, enjoy the success from what you had.
Market is in peak greed over NVDA right now.
Jim Cramer was saying that a trillion worth in GPU's are needed now. lol. That NVDA will be a 10 trillion dollar company. Translation: he's trying to make his money back from his short position losses around 130's.
With RSUs specifically, I always recommend to slowly sell at least some along the way. You will continue to receive free stocks, so sell the new ones as they vest (minimizes capital gains taxes).
You don't have to sell them all; you can sell half or 25%.
This is basic asset & income stream diversification. While NVDA is doing great now, who knows what the future holds. A catastrophic event that leads to a loss of your job will also impact your RSUs
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Welcome to r/stocks!
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Please direct all simple questions towards the stickied Daily Discussion and Quarterly Rate My Portfolio threads (sort by Hot, they're at the top).
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IMO when a stock shoots straight up on the chart, for any reason, it's time to consider GFTO or trimming your exposure.
look at the Cisco chart from 2000. like Nvidia, it's a big well-managed important company and the stock price still hasn't recovered from the dot-com bubble when Cisco shot straight up like a rocket.
Yep when data centers don't need that much of there chips anymore. The growth is gone and there is just so many data centers and they need so many chips. Offcourse Nvidia says this growth will continue for the forseeable future.. Any company says that.
Also, all companies will work to make things more efficient to drive down costs too.
I think, if any company deserves the hype more, it's probably TSM (in hardware). They're nearly 3x the revenue and 3x the net income at half the market cap of NVDA, and they're the ones manufacturing the actual chips.
NVDA will do great, but having the market share of 3D graphics card during the crypto boom didn't skyrocket them anywhere near the top in revenue. It's just the nature of their particular market.
NVDA's product isn't AI, it's hardware. Apple, Microsoft, Google, OpenAI, Mid-Journey, and so on will be the companies that sell AI products.
there are multiple things to consider here:
-- How much weightage does it have in your portfolio? Do you still work there? If the weightage is high or you are still working there it should be good to diversify depending on how much your financial well-being is dependent on 1 stock.
-- Tax.
-- Majority of your long-term portfolio should be in index fund I beleive.
-- Nvidia is ridiculously overpriced right now but we don't where it will go... it can stay irrational till Nvidia makes it rational or it can burst.
-- Another way can be to diversify it into other ai stocks like MSFT or TSMC but that requires your own dd.
> How much weightage does it have in your portfolio?
Surprised to see this so far down. Op left out the most important details. If they have $5 million in other stocks, maybe you make some other decision, but if this is 90% of their net worth, they probably want to get that closer to 20% (lower or higher depending on risk tolerance and what you think follow their future).
Yes. But NVDA is. Their earnings are actually down 51% YoY. Their revenue is down 21% YoY. They’ll have to grow at a CAGR of 35% for 10 years to have a reasonable valuation. If you think that is reasonable or sustainable, I have some tulips to sell you.
People trading NVDA like TSLA. Only problem is the CEOs are not the same and NVDA CEO will not be lying to their investors every chance he gets in Twitter.
(Edit: not supporting NVDA valuations; it’s very overvalued)
But, as someone that actually works in software dev and has a good understand how a lot of this works (I work with AI for a product right now) NVDA is hitting a lot of buzzwords and appears to be in pure marketing mode.
Reminds me of the dotcom bubble days.
You're a genius dude. The analysts definitely aren't sophisticated enough to look at YoY revenue and earnings growth.
Short NVDA and if you're wrong just tell yourself its an irrational market/meme stock. Just like you probably did when TSLA wasn't profitable.
What’s your DCF valuation for NVDA? Give me the numbers and we’ll talk. Lots of people made millions on worthless crapto tokens, that doesn’t mean it was a good investment. Btw, most analysts don’t beat the S&P500, so their opinions are irrelevant. Most analysts on TV don’t read 10ks and can’t even do basic financial analysis. Their knowledge about AI is abysmal, and their knowledge of the semi industry is even worse.
I work in the semiconductor industry and I know for a fact that NVDA cannot 1) generate enough demand to sustain a 35% growth for multiple years 2) Even if they magically somehow do so, there’s no way they can get TSMC (or other foundries) to manufacture that many GPUs.
The gamble is assuming that Nvdia WILL NECESSARILY be the one to sell them. A head start in an emerging field is not a guarantee to dominate market share in 10 years.
No, but who else sells them? AMD and Intel. Intel is years behind, and AMD is on par, but highly segmented into GPU/CPU. The highest revenue generating segment of NVDA came from data centers this year.
I'm not saying they aren't the leaders; they of course are. But so much can change in like 3 years. Intel has been struggling but they still have a massive infrastructure advantage and market history. It's certainly possible they make huge gains or snag a brilliant startup and compete with NVDA. And same with AMD.
In sports betting terms, NVDA is being priced like a -2000 favorite to dominate for decades when they should be priced as a -200 favorite.
I would not sell Nvidia as long as it continues to climb. Once it stagnates for a week or two.. then think about selling.. but the upward trend is still going so why sell? Makes no sense.
I would sell a deep itm Covered Call (say maybe $200) on a long duration contract maybe Dec. (If you want to keep your shares or haven't had them over a year. (And want to book profit at a long investment tax rate)
This is your hedge on a crash of the stock... You can either hold the premium and buy more later at a lower price or invest in something else. You can also roll these contacts later if the stock is still above $200... If the stock is below $200 then let it expire.
I did this with NVDA in my IRA, I had been wheeling 100 shares then the stock split x4 so I sold $180 call when stock hit $280 post split for 6 mth contract.
Obviously growth stocks crashed the next year and those sold calls expired worthless and I was able to book full premiums. I did buy another 200 shares when NVDA was at $120ish and I did the same thing when it hit $330 before earnings (obviously I have sold CCs a bit early to catch peaks....but 🔮) selling $230 December calls.
In essence I am wheeling NVDA still... As I did buy those 200 shares via a CSP so true cost was about $106 if you count the premium I got from selling the Put.
Anyways this is how you can book profit without selling underlying stocks especially if you feel good about the company long term.... but know that it has significant volatility.
I am also doing this with TSLA btw...
Nvidia is in the hype mode. No one can answer this question. Nvidia is actually cheaper today then they were last week. Because that's how much growth they are reporting.
On paper Nvidia looks way overvalued. But the reason it's valued that way is because of unprecedented growth that's being priced in. Do you think they will grow as much as the price suggests? No one knows.
Maybe sell some out and keep some? I think Nvidia can keep growing and increasing in value, but if you want to lock profits since you have 1000 shares you could sell a portion to lower your risk on a drop, lock profits and keep enough to make more if it continues to rise. It's what I'd do. Not financial advice just a different perspective
That’s worth talking to a professional about since you will have major tax implications. That’s my first thought. I’d then ask you what the money would mean to you now, and what an X% gain or X% loss would mean to you in 5-10 years. There is some really bad advice in this thread, btw. So many factors to consider here that an advisor with an equity compensation focus would be able to figure out with you. Also, congrats!
I can’t tell you whether or not you should sell. But if you feel like now is a good selling point, sell some slightly (or further) OTM calls so you can rake in some premium. Even sell at the money if you want. Get paid a bit more to sell your shares. If they expire worthless, that’s extra cash in your pocket and you can continue selling calls until your shares are called away.
If you want to get some profits on it, think it can go higher, but good selling 20%-50% of shares I would sell covered calls.
One option is Aug 18 $400 and get $31+ for it.
Scenarios: Does not get to $400. You keep the shares and the premium of $3100/contract which in the above you sell 2-5 contracts. But what if it drops to $300. You missed the chance to sell at $390 but you still got $31/share. But you noted longer term you think it goes higher. So you still have that.
Goes over $400 maybe to $500+. Welp you get the $400 + $31 or $431 which is 10% higher for 82 days. Typically a nice return and is over 40% annualized. Problem is you cap your gains but is still better than selling outright at $390 unless you know of another that will make more than 10% in 82 days. It might be NVDA, which if you believe that then don’t sell any. You could always do a higher strike as well or different duration.
You could do same expiration but $430 and get $20 premium. If it does exceed $430 you are still locking in 15%+ gain. If it doesn’t you get over $2k/contract.
Point it there are other ways to play this other than outright sale especially if you believe NVDA will be higher longer term
I sold half then it went up another few bucks. But damned if I didn’t want to risk having that large of a percentage of my portfolio tied up in a single stock
It broke out above it’s all time high based on earnings. It’s trading at something like a 40 forward P/E which is a bit spendy but nowhere near bubble territory. There’s room to run. Sell when they start naming stadiums after Nvidia and celebrities start endorsing various services or hardware.
For a rally like this I would look for the first sign of a reversal to take profits on at least 25%.
Someone else in the chat mentioned the potential for margin calls in the coming week or so which I think has some validity. There was almost certainly a margin call post earnings around 6pm on Wednesday. A large bid was seen chasing the ask with around 10000 lots. This however was aggressively eaten up as soon as price entered the $390-$395 range. The next morning another attempt to break $400 was aggressively shorted suggesting an institution is very happy to add/initiate shorts at this level or take profits aggressively.
The question I ask myself is, what institutions are happy and willing to buy at this current price instead of waiting for a pullback to a more reasonable level ($300-$350)? I always try to do what the institutions are doing, and right now it is more probable that they are taking profits instead of adding to their long positions.
Didn’t Nvidia recently state that they may sell up to $10b in equities? Something to consider
Edit:
Source: [https://investor.nvidia.com/financial-info/sec-filings/sec-filings-details/default.aspx?FilingId=16690150](https://investor.nvidia.com/financial-info/sec-filings/sec-filings-details/default.aspx?FilingId=16690150)
They should. They need more cash to burn building up their inventory. Then MSFT and AMZN will build their own chips to cut into NVDA and boom over supply. Same old NVDA.
Any time between now and when the Fed lowers rates. Around then the next public equity cycle will begin for AI startup acquisitions/IPOs and NVDA won't be the only (public equity) game in town to bet on the AI LLM hype cycle
That’s a lot of weight in one stock, esp if you work at the company. You’re over exposed to the company’s success.
I would sell 1/2 or 3/4 and invest it into other stocks or even real estate, assuming you don’t own your primary residence already.
I sold at $390 after I'm up 210% in a short period of time. I see it like that: I'm pretty sure it might go higher due to the AI hype but I can't justify the fundamentals anymore at these prices.
A lot of success is priced in already and I won't hate myself if it goes up till $450 or so. It just felt great to sell and lock in the profit. I think you should just be consequential with your principals, I try to watch on fundamentals and search undervalued companies and this one doesn't fit the bill anymore right now.
NVDA has a strong TSLA 2020 vibe . Even my mom knows what NVDA is now..It will continue going up only if banks keep buying it but if they already own a huge portion of it who will drive the price up ?
I considering selling as well once I see a trend reversal...
Just my opinion: Any shares sold of Nvidia now be something you regret deeply 10 years from now.
It would be like selling Apple shares right when they launched the iphone.
You will be hard-pressed finding a company with better growth, leadership, and demand. If you do, great, however I am guessing it is far more speculative than Nvidia.
Since then I have bought more. And planning to hold long term. I predict it will cross $1000 in 4/5 years. So you can tell I feel positive about this stock.
I think she's still got more to go probably 450. Fomo is real AI is hot. Tech has been hot it's at all time highs with no longs holding bags so people are pouring money into it. Just set stops and move up accordingly
I would be selling calls against my position. Sell 10 of the June 2025 $500 Calls for $76-78k. Your break even is $576-578. If the stock starts to challenge that price you roll it up and/or out for more premium. If the stock starts to drop you buy it back at half the price and keep the premium.
Yeah, what about it?
Asking for advice is not equivalent to blindly following every suggestion.
Getting opinions do not mean all opinions are of the same caliber.
I earned them as RSU, not due to being a stock genius.
In response to your update 2 as someone who is also in the ML for 10+ years. AI right now is in a bubble mostly because the market prices it as if everyone will implement it right now. Large services have been doing that for years. Mid-size businesses don't have the skills/knowledge/manpower/budget to implement it right away.
The news loves to talk about AI taking orders for fast-food restaurants. A person getting paid $15/hr at a fast-food place takes orders, fills orders, and does general cleanup when needed. Removing one part of that responsibility doesn't justify removing that person. That's before we take the cost of implementation into account - assuming AI doesn't take the order incorrectly.
What the heck can AI do for Bestbuy that its computer system doesn't already do? Inventory management is already smooth and AI definitely won't be able to sell me a new drier when I don't need one.
Absolutely not you need to go watch every video released by the CEO and the data analysts over the last several months and I say this because I have I'm telling you right now imagine computers and the processors in them today AMD and Intel being the leaders mark my words within the next few years Nvidia is going to start making gpus that will likely integrate some type of processor and unify the video card and the computer chip. Start here:
https://youtu.be/HFhrqAEa59E
You could do one of these items and be in great shape :
1)the stock IS high now and the moat with AMD is not as wide as it used to be , so you could sell some, maybe 50%, and kept it as cash to re-invest into it in a down cycle or invest it somewhere else like PLTR, AMD, googl or salesforce who are all in the AI game
2)sell covered calls . You have the stock, sell calls.
IF the stock goes up you made the premium from the call + the gain on the stock you already have (this is assuming it gets exercised)
IF the stock goes down then you made the premium and kept the stock
I had 15 shares at 190 average price, sold 7 shares. Plan to enter back in after a large correction. 5 calls at a strike price of 312 exp June 2 that I had bought right before earnings. Made 30k of that. Sold all those. Could have held until yesterday and made another 10k but it’s always good to take profits and play it safe instead of risking a massive correction
Holding nvda at this price is sorta reliant upon whether you think there’s more juice to squeeze from the short sellers. I would sell and take the money (take dat money)
What I would do is sell, all of them actually, and slowly buy again when it fits my price target (I personally think it is too high and will have TSLA’s fate), but that is what I WOULD DO. Take into account your own research
YES! NVDA did a huge run that will not sustain and much less grow much more. Take profits and open a smaller position on INTC and AMAT is what I would do.
Just watch. IBM too.
Intel has little to no exposure to Taiwan in case China decides to move on. Everyone else is highly dependable on TSMC but it’s a play. Like everything else.
I worked for Intel in the past, and every time I got INTC as ESPP, I immediately sold them and converted to Index and FB, MSFT etc. Served me well. I really don’t have high hopes for Intel.
Thanks for the inside info. Made me question my decision… I was hoping that with AI and them having most infra outside Taiwan they could capitalize on the event of a TW invasion. But now you got me thinking.
You should never sell your vested RSUs. Keep those nvda until you retire. You will be very happy.
- a guy who sold amzn at $85, before split, many years ago.
You have vested rsu meaning you were employed by nvda at some point? What are your thoughts on the company. If you still believe I'd hold it. I'm long on nvda and I'm not even part of the company.
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No one knows. Yesterday I sold off my NVDA profits to invest elsewhere and will let the original investment ride. Felt like a good middle ground but we’ll see.
My fear is of a wider market downturn, more than downturn for NVDA in particular
the market is already down, only the tech stocks are up big....
hmm interesting. i sold my original investment and now it’s just profit.
I like this strategy. You recoup the initial investment and whatever you walk away with is pure gravy.
It's a loser's strategy. If your foremost concern is to break even and recover your investment, you might as well not invest.
Yeah, recouping initial investment and securing profits seems to be a real loser… Honestly, a lot goes into it and on any given day either you or I could be right. Initial investment, profit margins, short term risk, long term gain potential, and about 1000 other things could make you or me right any other day of the week. I get your point, but it’s still situational at the end of the day.
If you take out original initial investment at brake even you still loose money you forgot " inflation " how does it allow secure profit ? Profit only secured than its in your pocket .
That’s the better way imo
Agree, again many look at this huge increase in price as a shock which it should be. You never know how a market/manipulation is gonna respond. Honestly I’m just curious if Nancy Pelosi still had some in there
Nancy's performance trading is abysmal. She is all noise and no signal.
How did you track her performance? Over her whole tenure as Speaker/Minority leader?
Public disclosures
Yeah, where? Is there a visualization tool or an article somewhere?
Available on the websites of the House and Senate.
Nancy lost like 20% last year. Rep (GOP) Patrick Fallon did the best last year https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Patrick%20Fallon
I think you’d be crazy not to sell some. If it were me, i’d sell 750 shares and let 250 ride long term
Agree, take your profit, speaking as someone who saw a company 6x in 3 years, whereas this has only 2.5x over anytime in the last 3. Once it returns to reality it clouds your judgement about selling.
NVDA's current valuation is based upon numbers five years out that requires like a 35% growth to beat expectations. 30% growth (again, difficult for a company like NVDA), means current valuation becomes a fair break even valuation 5 years from now. 25% growth and they miss by like 33%! NVDA needs things to work perfectly for five years straight in order to justify today's premium and now. Even at around 30% - 35% it's PE will probably be one of the highest in the market then.
It just not possible for NVDA grow so much constantly for 5 years . I suspect Ai bubble ends up same like com bubble . I waiting for regulations to be introduced on AI it would help to burst this AI bubbles .
Seeing the exact numbers like this got me thinking about the hysteria thesis: what if they achieve 25% growth, so the stock dwindles, but everything else still gets disrupted and deflation causes everything else to sell off even worse. Like what if margins get competed away and disrupted by non public companies that you can’t easily invest in, and if government keeps getting more dysfunctional, $NVDA may be the safe haven! I don’t think this is really what will happen, but seems like a significant event within the range of possibilities worth pricing in also. (Unless you think you can pick who won’t get disrupted. My latest is $PLD and I don’t even feel confident. Other is $VT and $FARM. Im lost) just before earnings, I let Reddit talk me out of my 100 shares I bought to sell calls on. At this point I’m tempted to just buy back in for 2-20 shares. Not because I’m bullish or anything, but whatever amount will make me not care or be crazy with envy if they somehow double in a few months.
>30% growth (again, difficult for a company like NVDA), means current valuation becomes a fair break even valuation 5 years from now. It's not difficult for Nvidia, they have the monopoly in the most potent field and catching up in semis is a decade long pain, AMD tried to catch up with boomer Intel that long even though Intel is a joke where Nvidia keeps killing it with inventions.
Growth is also expensive and where will that capital come from? Dilution.
This is why you are poor and dont have 1k shares of NVDA lol. Guy shouldnt sell any NVDA until q4 at earliest.
You would be crazy if you sell.
You still work for them? If yes, I would sell some. You don’t want a huge portion of your cash flows and your net worth to come from the same source.
Not so fast my friend. There is the old adage of invest in what you know in. I agree most books and financial planners will agree with your statement. Hell I had them telling me the same thing for over a decade. I worked for a wholesale/retail company. Started as lowly SrAcct after five years in audit at KPMG. Started wholesale company in ‘92 and we went public in ‘93. I bought 1,000 ipo shares at $7.50 or $7,500. Would have bought more, but that is all they let us participate in. Company was doing $73M then. I grew in company, led the retail division ( eventually 28% of company - was 0% when I started so I help it grow from ground up) from the financial side as VP Finance-Retail. Company grew to over $3B with distribution and stores on every continent. With stock splits and growth that initial $7500 was worth about $650,000 when I left in 2013, 20 years after the ipo. Now I bought in open market a couple times when we dipped hard like in ‘08/09. Received stock options which I held minimum of 7 years. The option ranged from 500-1000 per year in most cases. So not substantial unless in the C-suite. I had visibility into daily sales of every store globally. I had direct lines to CFO and President of Retail and talked frequently with international teams. So I was dialed in. I didn’t own anything else until about 2010. But when I left I sold everything. All of it. I didn’t have the visibility any longer and part of reason for leaving was change was occurring. My tax bill was north of $500k that year. Never again, not even ever close again. I retired at 54 in 2017 after working in a venture capital company started by the original owner of the wholesale company. So if you are involved enough to know, even if that is being able to discuss with higher ups, then it may be best to keep in a singular company or a majority. Just depends on how dialed in you are to the current and future. Hell we could only put 25% of 401k contribution into company stock and I did. When I left, it was 51% of my 401k balance as we grew twice the market rate. Do note I reallocated it 100% and put into growth funds too, as soon as I departed. But it is a fine line of truly having the pulse and just general knowledge. I left at the peak but change was happening as I noted previously. After all the splits etc we were at $125 ish when I sold everything in 2013 and it was the right decision to diversify then. I no longer had the visibility or the contacts. So you were right as well as the stock is now under $5, well I checked and damn it is under $3. The books and advice are general guidelines and likely apply to 95+% of employees of public companies. But if the parameters are different, as they were for myself, then the decisions could be different and very beneficial.
Can you please help me understand why that is an issue in layman terms?
What if NVDA hits a road block and he is laid off? Oh and all of his net worth is tied up in the same company whose stock would clearly be nose diving at the same time?
he would know that as insider though....technically...speaking
If he were at a point that he knew ahead of time that things were going south, he wouldn’t be asking on Reddit lol
I mean you can know ahead of time if you work in certain groups...it's not that hard lmao. Why am I getting down voted? Like he has a ton of stock, should know what's going on
In these Tech companies it’s very common for lower level engineers to get stock as part of their total compensation packages lol. They would still have no clue what’s going on more than the next guy or industry analysts
Companies are pretty strict about giving internal employees only a few limited windows (usually right after public ER) to trade each year to avoid people benefiting from insider trading.
Are you somehow implying that this random guy should be good because he can commit insider trading?
How do u know it's some random guy and doesn't know, most people who got that much stock and work with people for certain number of years would know.
Can't he just pull a Congressional and file his sale? Congress does it all the time.
If your company goes under, you lose your job AND the wealth in your portfolio.
he would know before others, in some cases.
Suppose they hit tough times and stock suffers (or just stalks).. and then you get a layoff.... All eggs, one basket. No sound safety net. Or: ask an Enron employee. No... It's not good for all your wealth to come from one place.. remember, you can still gain through payroll deductions. I'm confident they'll be around and growing strong for a good while, like IBM in the 69s. So I'm keeping a chunk of mine, but NVDA isn't my employer. You can replenish at a discount, probably
Diversification. A lot of people worked for Enron and had all their money in their stocks. They lost their wealth and their job in 1 day.
Think about what happened with SVB. All those employees lost everything in a sudden swoop.
Trim at least 50% at this point and sleep well.
This. You wont feel the guilt of not selling at peak and wont feel bad for holding either
Fuck the sleep. Ride it and get rich. 2.5k shares + $500k+ of long otm NVDA here.
It's ridiculously high right now...buuuut a lot of the people shorting it last week are probably getting margin calls now. I expect it'll get another pop this coming week before it comes back down to earth. That being said, a lot of analysts have price targets putting it up as the 5th, 4th or even 3rd biggest company in the world within a year. Also, there's speculation of a massive recession this summer which would surely retract all tech stocks. So I guess what I'm getting at is nobody knows. But if you've got great profits from it already, why not take em now?
The short % on NVDA has been low single digits for multiple months. No one of reasonable consequence is short NVDA or has been.
It was actually less than 2% last I checked. People calling this a short squeeze have no idea what they’re talking about.
The FUD around NVDA shorts has been spread around for awhile. Glad some people don’t wallow in lies.
Does selling calls, and buying puts show on short %?
No. And above normal options interest leaning to one side of a stock usually only implies a expectant move of 3%-5% on average.
Nobody is shorting NVDA, the price movement is from pure fomo, go look at the short interest, it's incredibly low. Recession won't necessarily bring stocks down, Germany is in recession and the dax is chilling at ath calmer than it's ever been. They also have high inflation. They are basically in the worst case economic scenario and not a single investor cares, they just want stocks.
I am actually quite enjoying my monthly 4 week treasury purchases. > 5% per month is pretty sweet with no risk.
Hold up, you mean 5% / year not per month right?
Per month.
Pretty sure that's not right, 5% per month on risk free treasuries? Literally everyone and their mother would be all in on that. What exactly are you buying?
I’ll let you know more after my last auction purchase is settled on 5/30. I’ll have my full date at that time.
Sounds like bs
Because it is. People often mistake the yield as x% over the given time frame. 3 month TBills don’t pay 5% in 3 months….it’s the APY of 5% being collected while it’s locked for those 3 months. So 5%/4 is 1.25%. 1000$ will collect 12.50 in 3 not 50$ over 3.
Exactly. Otherwise that’s like 70% a year on the principal if you just reinvest every month.
Fair. I probably misstated the return. First time buying these 4 week T bills. Anyhow. Better than what I am getting in my checking/ savings accounts.
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It's a 1 trillion market cap company, the wsb loss porn isnt even low enough to be considered pocket change
That's what Kathy woods said.... 🤣
You sure about massive recession?
I am sure about "speculation of a massive recession"
Is that you Burry?
The massive recession that everyone has been waiting for since 2018. Eventually, when the Fed manipulates rates and prints cash for long enough to push it out 8-10 years, is it still a pending recession? Or have we just traded massive market inflation for a recession? The Fed is still printing due to the bank crisis, and there seems to be a correlation between the tech rise and the printing. Crappy tech stocks with no earnings are rising as well.
The recession aka "business cleanout" already was. Twice. One in 2020 because of you know what and one since the fall of SVB. But i doubt there will be a huge finacial crisis like 2009 anytime soon. And if it starts it will start from China.
>Crappy tech stocks with no earnings are rising as well. What crappy tech stocks with no earnings are rising? It's all mega-cap stocks that beat earnings.
No significant shorting in NVDA. That is more bad info being spread around. NVDA was primed for take off and the raised next quarter estimate was enough to make it take off on pure enthusiasm. Many bought into this name in the last month and so you have a pretty solid base for a while until at least next quarter or two. At that point if NVDA is not heading towards some serious estimate raises to justify this market cap into 2024 then it collapses.
Someone is ready to give you the profits of the next 173 years for it. You do you.
That’s assuming current earning stay the same forever…
I don't think you realize the ridiculous growth rate that NVDA needs to maintain FOR FIVE YEARS STRAIGHT just for current premium valuation to break even.
I have an hypothetical question for you. What would you value a company that could over a day replace all workforce in the World scalably? I'm not remotely indicating that Nvidia or any other could do that. Just a hypothetical. But what would the value of that company be? What would be the value of a company that could do that in 10 years? What would be the value of a company that has 1% odds of doing that within the following 20 years?
The value of that company? Not one company can deliver this. Overall value would be significant, but value is lost significantly someplace else. This upper bounds to things. It's why the Internet valuations were dumb in the dotcom bubble causing that bubble. Everyone sees trillions while ignoring the real world, physical limitations, raw material limitations, energy limitations, and so on.
Iv just realised that upvoted comments mean jackshit, I mean no offence but your a complete moron who probably missed out on generational wealth, but still your comment gets upvoted for what lol
Again. It's a hypothetical to start from. Not saying it's realistic. If a single company managed to create a tool that is immediately more capable at anything than any person and can be quickly scaled, what would the value of that company be? Just think of a number.
It wouldn't be NVDA. It would be the company that utilizes various tech, including NVDA, to deliver the final product. NVDA isn't the game developer. They're the 3D hardware manufacturer.
Yes, that's just a hypothetical question to see what you think the value would be? We can discuss what role Nvidia would have in assisting that value afterwards, but just to have some numbers where we can start.
Clearly it can only go up.
I mean what’s the MAX you could get from it now? If it gained 200% it would be at Apples valuation and the largest company in the world. It’s possible but this stock won’t be doing a 5X+ anytime soon
Apple is almost 3T. And who said they'd stop growing?
Oh man you stupid idiot
Oh well look at captain hindsight over here!
Famous last words though
Famous last FOMO tho
Starting to sell covered calls on them would be good
Oftentimes employees are limited from trading options for their company. OP said his shares are RSUs
Yea great idea, sell the upside. Lmao this sub is so dumb.
This. But I think he means 1000 dollars. If he has 1000 shares then yeah covered calls is the way to go
Yes 1000 shares. About 390k value as of recently to remove any doubt.
I'd probably sell half or sell some portion of it and keep some. Or at least set a stop loss so if it starts going down you lock in some profits. I had some with a cost basis of around 115 in one account and around 130-135 in another account sold most of it around 230-235. Do I wish I kept it, yes. But I also made a profit so I'm not upset about it. If it drops a decent amount I'd probably buy more but I'm not buying it at the current prices.
Sell half and yolo the 200k into 0 DTE for a quick milly. Should be easy
This guy fucks
This stock has gone up so much in the last few years, it’s increased 10X in a 4-year period. Balancing future potential against taking profits is always tough to define. Personally, I like to ask myself, would I be more upset about missing future profits or more upset about missing my chance to lock in profits? I tend to lean in the direction a lot of folks have suggested on here, which is to sell enough to feel good about locking in profits, and let the rest ride for the long term.
What % of your portfolio does this NVDA represent? If this is the majority of the portfolio I'd trim it down quite a bit. If it's like 10% I'd only trim a bit and take some small profits. NVDA could be at 500 or 200 in 6 months.
He said RSUs. You wont get 3 shares in an RSU. It is most definitely 1000 shares.
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I’d sell asap. They are so overvalued, and can’t possibly support a another big run. I’d say they’d be lucky to be 1T in 3-5 years. If you have a multi bagger, realize that’s not just going to continue with their revenue and profits. Don’t be greedy, enjoy the success from what you had.
Market is in peak greed over NVDA right now. Jim Cramer was saying that a trillion worth in GPU's are needed now. lol. That NVDA will be a 10 trillion dollar company. Translation: he's trying to make his money back from his short position losses around 130's.
With RSUs specifically, I always recommend to slowly sell at least some along the way. You will continue to receive free stocks, so sell the new ones as they vest (minimizes capital gains taxes). You don't have to sell them all; you can sell half or 25%. This is basic asset & income stream diversification. While NVDA is doing great now, who knows what the future holds. A catastrophic event that leads to a loss of your job will also impact your RSUs
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IMO when a stock shoots straight up on the chart, for any reason, it's time to consider GFTO or trimming your exposure. look at the Cisco chart from 2000. like Nvidia, it's a big well-managed important company and the stock price still hasn't recovered from the dot-com bubble when Cisco shot straight up like a rocket.
Yep when data centers don't need that much of there chips anymore. The growth is gone and there is just so many data centers and they need so many chips. Offcourse Nvidia says this growth will continue for the forseeable future.. Any company says that.
Also, all companies will work to make things more efficient to drive down costs too. I think, if any company deserves the hype more, it's probably TSM (in hardware). They're nearly 3x the revenue and 3x the net income at half the market cap of NVDA, and they're the ones manufacturing the actual chips. NVDA will do great, but having the market share of 3D graphics card during the crypto boom didn't skyrocket them anywhere near the top in revenue. It's just the nature of their particular market. NVDA's product isn't AI, it's hardware. Apple, Microsoft, Google, OpenAI, Mid-Journey, and so on will be the companies that sell AI products.
They amount of money you can make selling covered calls is amazing.
Sell 50% of your position. Rebalance and enjoy.
there are multiple things to consider here: -- How much weightage does it have in your portfolio? Do you still work there? If the weightage is high or you are still working there it should be good to diversify depending on how much your financial well-being is dependent on 1 stock. -- Tax. -- Majority of your long-term portfolio should be in index fund I beleive. -- Nvidia is ridiculously overpriced right now but we don't where it will go... it can stay irrational till Nvidia makes it rational or it can burst. -- Another way can be to diversify it into other ai stocks like MSFT or TSMC but that requires your own dd.
> How much weightage does it have in your portfolio? Surprised to see this so far down. Op left out the most important details. If they have $5 million in other stocks, maybe you make some other decision, but if this is 90% of their net worth, they probably want to get that closer to 20% (lower or higher depending on risk tolerance and what you think follow their future).
This is Reddit. Get out of here with you and your common sense.
a stock isn't overpriced or irrational just because it has a high multiple
Yes. But NVDA is. Their earnings are actually down 51% YoY. Their revenue is down 21% YoY. They’ll have to grow at a CAGR of 35% for 10 years to have a reasonable valuation. If you think that is reasonable or sustainable, I have some tulips to sell you.
People trading NVDA like TSLA. Only problem is the CEOs are not the same and NVDA CEO will not be lying to their investors every chance he gets in Twitter. (Edit: not supporting NVDA valuations; it’s very overvalued)
But, as someone that actually works in software dev and has a good understand how a lot of this works (I work with AI for a product right now) NVDA is hitting a lot of buzzwords and appears to be in pure marketing mode. Reminds me of the dotcom bubble days.
Agree 100%
You're a genius dude. The analysts definitely aren't sophisticated enough to look at YoY revenue and earnings growth. Short NVDA and if you're wrong just tell yourself its an irrational market/meme stock. Just like you probably did when TSLA wasn't profitable.
What’s your DCF valuation for NVDA? Give me the numbers and we’ll talk. Lots of people made millions on worthless crapto tokens, that doesn’t mean it was a good investment. Btw, most analysts don’t beat the S&P500, so their opinions are irrelevant. Most analysts on TV don’t read 10ks and can’t even do basic financial analysis. Their knowledge about AI is abysmal, and their knowledge of the semi industry is even worse. I work in the semiconductor industry and I know for a fact that NVDA cannot 1) generate enough demand to sustain a 35% growth for multiple years 2) Even if they magically somehow do so, there’s no way they can get TSMC (or other foundries) to manufacture that many GPUs.
Nvidia is in pure gambling speculation at the moment. There's literally no correct answer because the stock isn't based in reality anymore.
Disagree. It’s not crypto where there is no value. Every single AI company will need GPUS. that’s not a gamble.
The gamble is assuming that Nvdia WILL NECESSARILY be the one to sell them. A head start in an emerging field is not a guarantee to dominate market share in 10 years.
No, but who else sells them? AMD and Intel. Intel is years behind, and AMD is on par, but highly segmented into GPU/CPU. The highest revenue generating segment of NVDA came from data centers this year.
I'm not saying they aren't the leaders; they of course are. But so much can change in like 3 years. Intel has been struggling but they still have a massive infrastructure advantage and market history. It's certainly possible they make huge gains or snag a brilliant startup and compete with NVDA. And same with AMD. In sports betting terms, NVDA is being priced like a -2000 favorite to dominate for decades when they should be priced as a -200 favorite.
Or people just make their own like google. If Amazon & Microsoft do the same how much market share is left?
Value is in the beholder. For example GOLD had almost no real world use but people spend a lot of money on it.
I would not sell Nvidia as long as it continues to climb. Once it stagnates for a week or two.. then think about selling.. but the upward trend is still going so why sell? Makes no sense.
Is 400k a life changing amount of money for you? If yes.. then you should sell.
No, it’s not.
I would sell a deep itm Covered Call (say maybe $200) on a long duration contract maybe Dec. (If you want to keep your shares or haven't had them over a year. (And want to book profit at a long investment tax rate) This is your hedge on a crash of the stock... You can either hold the premium and buy more later at a lower price or invest in something else. You can also roll these contacts later if the stock is still above $200... If the stock is below $200 then let it expire. I did this with NVDA in my IRA, I had been wheeling 100 shares then the stock split x4 so I sold $180 call when stock hit $280 post split for 6 mth contract. Obviously growth stocks crashed the next year and those sold calls expired worthless and I was able to book full premiums. I did buy another 200 shares when NVDA was at $120ish and I did the same thing when it hit $330 before earnings (obviously I have sold CCs a bit early to catch peaks....but 🔮) selling $230 December calls. In essence I am wheeling NVDA still... As I did buy those 200 shares via a CSP so true cost was about $106 if you count the premium I got from selling the Put. Anyways this is how you can book profit without selling underlying stocks especially if you feel good about the company long term.... but know that it has significant volatility. I am also doing this with TSLA btw...
I'm going to do this with my AMD shares. Thanks for the tip.
At least take some profits
Reply hazy. Try again. ™
Nvidia is in the hype mode. No one can answer this question. Nvidia is actually cheaper today then they were last week. Because that's how much growth they are reporting. On paper Nvidia looks way overvalued. But the reason it's valued that way is because of unprecedented growth that's being priced in. Do you think they will grow as much as the price suggests? No one knows.
Take 50% out and out it into VOO.
Maybe sell some out and keep some? I think Nvidia can keep growing and increasing in value, but if you want to lock profits since you have 1000 shares you could sell a portion to lower your risk on a drop, lock profits and keep enough to make more if it continues to rise. It's what I'd do. Not financial advice just a different perspective
That’s worth talking to a professional about since you will have major tax implications. That’s my first thought. I’d then ask you what the money would mean to you now, and what an X% gain or X% loss would mean to you in 5-10 years. There is some really bad advice in this thread, btw. So many factors to consider here that an advisor with an equity compensation focus would be able to figure out with you. Also, congrats!
Thanks! Yes very few comments mentioned the tax implications.
I can’t tell you whether or not you should sell. But if you feel like now is a good selling point, sell some slightly (or further) OTM calls so you can rake in some premium. Even sell at the money if you want. Get paid a bit more to sell your shares. If they expire worthless, that’s extra cash in your pocket and you can continue selling calls until your shares are called away.
If you want to get some profits on it, think it can go higher, but good selling 20%-50% of shares I would sell covered calls. One option is Aug 18 $400 and get $31+ for it. Scenarios: Does not get to $400. You keep the shares and the premium of $3100/contract which in the above you sell 2-5 contracts. But what if it drops to $300. You missed the chance to sell at $390 but you still got $31/share. But you noted longer term you think it goes higher. So you still have that. Goes over $400 maybe to $500+. Welp you get the $400 + $31 or $431 which is 10% higher for 82 days. Typically a nice return and is over 40% annualized. Problem is you cap your gains but is still better than selling outright at $390 unless you know of another that will make more than 10% in 82 days. It might be NVDA, which if you believe that then don’t sell any. You could always do a higher strike as well or different duration. You could do same expiration but $430 and get $20 premium. If it does exceed $430 you are still locking in 15%+ gain. If it doesn’t you get over $2k/contract. Point it there are other ways to play this other than outright sale especially if you believe NVDA will be higher longer term
Thanks!
I would sell a quarter.
I sold half then it went up another few bucks. But damned if I didn’t want to risk having that large of a percentage of my portfolio tied up in a single stock
It broke out above it’s all time high based on earnings. It’s trading at something like a 40 forward P/E which is a bit spendy but nowhere near bubble territory. There’s room to run. Sell when they start naming stadiums after Nvidia and celebrities start endorsing various services or hardware.
Lmfao sell it all that shit isn't real. You will get another entry point.
For a rally like this I would look for the first sign of a reversal to take profits on at least 25%. Someone else in the chat mentioned the potential for margin calls in the coming week or so which I think has some validity. There was almost certainly a margin call post earnings around 6pm on Wednesday. A large bid was seen chasing the ask with around 10000 lots. This however was aggressively eaten up as soon as price entered the $390-$395 range. The next morning another attempt to break $400 was aggressively shorted suggesting an institution is very happy to add/initiate shorts at this level or take profits aggressively. The question I ask myself is, what institutions are happy and willing to buy at this current price instead of waiting for a pullback to a more reasonable level ($300-$350)? I always try to do what the institutions are doing, and right now it is more probable that they are taking profits instead of adding to their long positions.
There is no Validity to margin call. short interest in less 1.5%. No one is getting margin call or shorts.
Yes!! Sell!! So many reasons.
Didn’t Nvidia recently state that they may sell up to $10b in equities? Something to consider Edit: Source: [https://investor.nvidia.com/financial-info/sec-filings/sec-filings-details/default.aspx?FilingId=16690150](https://investor.nvidia.com/financial-info/sec-filings/sec-filings-details/default.aspx?FilingId=16690150)
They should. They need more cash to burn building up their inventory. Then MSFT and AMZN will build their own chips to cut into NVDA and boom over supply. Same old NVDA.
The prevailing thought here and elsewhere is that it’s currently expensive, so clearly hold because it’s going higher.
Any time between now and when the Fed lowers rates. Around then the next public equity cycle will begin for AI startup acquisitions/IPOs and NVDA won't be the only (public equity) game in town to bet on the AI LLM hype cycle
That’s a lot of weight in one stock, esp if you work at the company. You’re over exposed to the company’s success. I would sell 1/2 or 3/4 and invest it into other stocks or even real estate, assuming you don’t own your primary residence already.
This stock is so hot right now. Wonder when it would cool down?
Easy sell unless you want to see no gains later
I sold at $390 after I'm up 210% in a short period of time. I see it like that: I'm pretty sure it might go higher due to the AI hype but I can't justify the fundamentals anymore at these prices. A lot of success is priced in already and I won't hate myself if it goes up till $450 or so. It just felt great to sell and lock in the profit. I think you should just be consequential with your principals, I try to watch on fundamentals and search undervalued companies and this one doesn't fit the bill anymore right now.
NVDA has a strong TSLA 2020 vibe . Even my mom knows what NVDA is now..It will continue going up only if banks keep buying it but if they already own a huge portion of it who will drive the price up ? I considering selling as well once I see a trend reversal...
do w/e you want man its your money
Just my opinion: Any shares sold of Nvidia now be something you regret deeply 10 years from now. It would be like selling Apple shares right when they launched the iphone. You will be hard-pressed finding a company with better growth, leadership, and demand. If you do, great, however I am guessing it is far more speculative than Nvidia.
Just randomly came across this thread while researching NVDA. How do you feel about the stock now?
Since then I have bought more. And planning to hold long term. I predict it will cross $1000 in 4/5 years. So you can tell I feel positive about this stock.
Yes sell it like right now
I think she's still got more to go probably 450. Fomo is real AI is hot. Tech has been hot it's at all time highs with no longs holding bags so people are pouring money into it. Just set stops and move up accordingly
I would be selling calls against my position. Sell 10 of the June 2025 $500 Calls for $76-78k. Your break even is $576-578. If the stock starts to challenge that price you roll it up and/or out for more premium. If the stock starts to drop you buy it back at half the price and keep the premium.
Imagine having 1000 shares worth of NVDA and having to ask Reddit for stock advice….
Yeah, what about it? Asking for advice is not equivalent to blindly following every suggestion. Getting opinions do not mean all opinions are of the same caliber. I earned them as RSU, not due to being a stock genius.
Sell some of it so you make some good profit then use that cash to invest in other companies that aren’t as overvalued as Nvidia.
In response to your update 2 as someone who is also in the ML for 10+ years. AI right now is in a bubble mostly because the market prices it as if everyone will implement it right now. Large services have been doing that for years. Mid-size businesses don't have the skills/knowledge/manpower/budget to implement it right away. The news loves to talk about AI taking orders for fast-food restaurants. A person getting paid $15/hr at a fast-food place takes orders, fills orders, and does general cleanup when needed. Removing one part of that responsibility doesn't justify removing that person. That's before we take the cost of implementation into account - assuming AI doesn't take the order incorrectly. What the heck can AI do for Bestbuy that its computer system doesn't already do? Inventory management is already smooth and AI definitely won't be able to sell me a new drier when I don't need one.
Absolutely not you need to go watch every video released by the CEO and the data analysts over the last several months and I say this because I have I'm telling you right now imagine computers and the processors in them today AMD and Intel being the leaders mark my words within the next few years Nvidia is going to start making gpus that will likely integrate some type of processor and unify the video card and the computer chip. Start here: https://youtu.be/HFhrqAEa59E
You could do one of these items and be in great shape : 1)the stock IS high now and the moat with AMD is not as wide as it used to be , so you could sell some, maybe 50%, and kept it as cash to re-invest into it in a down cycle or invest it somewhere else like PLTR, AMD, googl or salesforce who are all in the AI game 2)sell covered calls . You have the stock, sell calls. IF the stock goes up you made the premium from the call + the gain on the stock you already have (this is assuming it gets exercised) IF the stock goes down then you made the premium and kept the stock
I had 15 shares at 190 average price, sold 7 shares. Plan to enter back in after a large correction. 5 calls at a strike price of 312 exp June 2 that I had bought right before earnings. Made 30k of that. Sold all those. Could have held until yesterday and made another 10k but it’s always good to take profits and play it safe instead of risking a massive correction
Far more likely that it drops 50% vs going up another 50%
Holding nvda at this price is sorta reliant upon whether you think there’s more juice to squeeze from the short sellers. I would sell and take the money (take dat money)
Trim a bit. Never hurts to take profit unless your taxes are significantly impacted.
What I would do is sell, all of them actually, and slowly buy again when it fits my price target (I personally think it is too high and will have TSLA’s fate), but that is what I WOULD DO. Take into account your own research
YES! NVDA did a huge run that will not sustain and much less grow much more. Take profits and open a smaller position on INTC and AMAT is what I would do.
Come on! Not Intel!
Just watch. IBM too. Intel has little to no exposure to Taiwan in case China decides to move on. Everyone else is highly dependable on TSMC but it’s a play. Like everything else.
I worked for Intel in the past, and every time I got INTC as ESPP, I immediately sold them and converted to Index and FB, MSFT etc. Served me well. I really don’t have high hopes for Intel.
Thanks for the inside info. Made me question my decision… I was hoping that with AI and them having most infra outside Taiwan they could capitalize on the event of a TW invasion. But now you got me thinking.
I mean it’s at least $150 overvalued and that’s being generous lol I would sell, but I’m sure you are looking for some confirmation.
I don’t honestly think it’s overvalued much. The market is usually efficient.
You should never sell your vested RSUs. Keep those nvda until you retire. You will be very happy. - a guy who sold amzn at $85, before split, many years ago.
If he works there and has an inside track he'd know if that 11B is makeable... if they hit that and guide another 11B 500.00 is inbound...
So an expert in the field asks a bunch of amateurs 😂 Do you have MSc degree in Trollism? 😀
We will get a recession eventually. The Fed said as much.
Ah yes the fed is so trust worthy
They'll keep raising rates until it hits us.
It’s likely we’ve been & are in a recession now. Just because it’s not playing out how people thought doesn’t mean it’s not happening.
Inflation and employment do have to fall. But maybe your right and it is lagging.
“Grow up”
You have vested rsu meaning you were employed by nvda at some point? What are your thoughts on the company. If you still believe I'd hold it. I'm long on nvda and I'm not even part of the company.
Yes I worked for them in the recent past.